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Inflation.......... ?

Thank you for the replies. To be clear, that is not my business plan, just an off the cuff hypothetical. Maybe I'm conflating cc's with all debt which is not what you were saying. High or variable rates are the problem, not my long term low/fixed rate obligations. Again, thanks for helping me clear that up.
I thought that you were going down the "fuck the bank, for reasons" line of thought. I'm glad you posted this second piece.

People have tried to do what you are saying in the past and it usually ends up that they get screwed. People tried this during the Y2K scare, during the housing boom of the early 200's, the stock market boom of the 90's, 2000's and up until now by buying on margin. The bank always wants their money back and the buyer of what you are trying to sell usually sees the value as less than what you need, unless you have a damn good crystal ball. The issue with CC's is that you begin making payments immediately, there is no wait time, so if you are trying to buy on credit and sell at some point in time in the future you have to realize that the high rates (which are going to go higher) are going to hit next month in the form of minimum payments, which eats into the profit and adds additional risk, especially if we are heading into a recession and nobody has the money or desire to buy what you are offering. Its not a play that many would recommend, and this economy has yet to fully downturn in terms of demand destruction, which is what the Fed is trying to accomplish.

It's a good conversation to have for sure as I am sure that others have thought the same thing but not tried to flesh out all the risks associated with it.
 
latest news on drilling

Only 173 parcels on roughly 144,000 acres will be leased out of the 646 parcels on 733,000 acres nominated by the Bureau of Land Management, an 80-percent reduction.​
In addition, the Department of the Interior will be increasing the royalty rate for new leases from 12.5% to 18.75%.​
link for full article
 
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latest news on drilling

Only 173 parcels on roughly 144,000 acres will be leased out of the 646 parcels on 733,000 acres nominated by the Bureau of Land Management, an 80-percent reduction.​
In addition, the Department of the Interior will be increasing the royalty rate for new leases from 12.5% to 18.75%.​
link for full article
Lol. They’ll have to call the oil executives back in to ask about why prices are so high.
 
Time to look around and determine "what you can do without". Small things will begin to add up. A loaf of bread, deli meat and cheese should start to replace running out for a fast food lunch. Pack an apple or fruit into that brown bag to go with that sandwich. Step up and deal with the peer pressure from your co-workers who are continuing to eat high on the hog. Take stock of the money being spent to entertain you and your family. Streaming movies, Cable bundles filled with many shows that you never watch will all add up. The entertainment world is tightening their budgets also. When they can entertain you with a re-run that is a big profit for them.... Dig deep, look around, this recession will get a lot worse.


 
Lol. They’ll have to call the oil executives back in to ask about why prices are so high.
Evidently they have been giving good answers at previous inquest.

As Chairman and CEO at EXXON MOBIL CORP, D. W. Woods made $16,424,332 in total compensation. Of this total $1,500,000 was received as a salary, $2,216,000 was received as a bonus, $0 was received in stock options, $12,371,850 was awarded as stock and $336,482 came from other types of compensation. This information is according to proxy statements filed for the 2019 fiscal year.
 
Time to look around and determine "what you can do without". Small things will begin to add up. A loaf of bread, deli meat and cheese should start to replace running out for a fast food lunch. Pack an apple or fruit into that brown bag to go with that sandwich. Step up and deal with the peer pressure from your co-workers who are continuing to eat high on the hog. Take stock of the money being spent to entertain you and your family. Streaming movies, Cable bundles filled with many shows that you never watch will all add up. The entertainment world is tightening their budgets also. When they can entertain you with a re-run that is a big profit for them.... Dig deep, look around, this recession will get a lot worse.


This + 1. As a retired fireman I'm in the low middle class. OK I took that route. Hell I took the job. When DT was there I was good except for five week months. Now I'm broke two day's after paying credit cards. Not really complaining I still live OK but it's been a few months since I bought a gun...That sucks
 
About 3 postings above, I spoke of figuring out what you can do without. Evidently 200,000 other American's are starting to figure what they can do without and don't need to be entertained as much. Domino's continue to fall.

Well, their selection is pretty shit too. I really miss blockbuster.
 
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Started looking into canning. Guess I'm late to the game.

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Started looking into canning. Guess I'm late to the game.

new.png
You are certainly not "Late to the Game"............ If you bought a 1 ounce Gold Eagle today and paid $2,000 you would not be late for that game either.

It's not a "game"... It's a "Curve"....

Start simple / small.... Pick up a used "Pressure Cooker" at one of the resale stores. Bring it home, put about 2" of water in it, fasten the lid and put it on a medium burner. check for pressure leaks and then put the wobbler on top of the vent... Let it build up pressure and sit for a few minutes. If it pressures up, you are good to go.... If not it may need a seal, some cleaning around the vent or other minor tuning... don't over think it.
A small one will do one pint jars just fine. Start small and work your way up to the bigger jars.

spin_prod_206401601
 
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Worldwide
summary

German annual producer price inflation topped 30% in March, the country's Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. That's its highest level since the agency began collecting data 73 years ago.​
The biggest culprit? Energy prices, which rose nearly 84% from the same month last year.​
"Mainly responsible for the high rise of energy prices were the strong price increases of natural gas... which was [up] 144.8% on March 2021," the statistics office said in a statement​

Good thing our Gov took some of that stuff out of our CPI, or we'd have a lot higher inflation than 8.5 percent. Don't want the sheeple to panic.
 
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I am a electrical contractor, and I am seeing inflation on certain things of 400%. Its crazy out there in my industry. I have no clue what other companies that can not afford to stock up for jobs are doing right now. My trade is running about 25% non-stock on everyday items. This has to be hard for people that need everyday stuff and have to do the box store route.
 
I am a electrical contractor, and I am seeing inflation on certain things of 400%. Its crazy out there in my industry. I have no clue what other companies that can not afford to stock up for jobs are doing right now. My trade is running about 25% non-stock on everyday items. This has to be hard for people that need everyday stuff and have to do the box store route.
Thanks for the update. Would you care to give us your "forward looking" opinion for your industry ?
 
I am a electrical contractor, and I am seeing inflation on certain things of 400%. Its crazy out there in my industry. I have no clue what other companies that can not afford to stock up for jobs are doing right now. My trade is running about 25% non-stock on everyday items. This has to be hard for people that need everyday stuff and have to do the box store route.
I'd buy the crap out of 12/2 12/3... it's only going to go up ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ up up up
edit - as you charge mkt price, your margin dollars will go ^^^^^^
 
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The last roll of 10-2 I bought was over $315 here. I use a lot of it on installing new systems.
I'd buy the crap out of 12/2 12/3... it's only going to go up ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ up up up
edit - as you charge mkt price, your margin dollars will go ^^^^^^
As I stated a while back, the numbers of permits are down so I don't want to be sitting on a lot of stock.
 
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Sam's club, 7.5 dozen eggs, 2 years ago 12.00, 1 year 16.00, 6 months 21, today, 28.00. yes, 4 dollars a dozen.
 
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LOL, Wonder if the HOA will bitch if you put a chicken coop in your backyard, LOL.. 10 hens would pay for themselves
 
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I'm reaching a personal opinion that "things don't add up" with the cost of housing. The equations just don't add up. Why can't a 30 year old, college educated couple, gainfully employed qualify to buy a house ? I know these people personally and the cost of a house is way beyond their means...... What am I missing in this matrix ?

 
I'm reaching a personal opinion that "things don't add up" with the cost of housing. The equations just don't add up. Why can't a 30 year old, college educated couple, gainfully employed qualify to buy a house ? I know these people personally and the cost of a house is way beyond their means...... What am I missing in this matrix ?

how much do they have in student loans?
I agree with you on the housing prices. I mean, how can couple afford a 'baseline' starter house at 450,000 @ 5%. Gov keeps raising the FFA minimum from 250, 350k, to 450k. The base house prices follow the FFA minimum. If the Gov dropped the FFA loan to 250K, watch the housing market drop.
Second, last housing bubble, 2000's; houses that went into foreclosure, (here in AZ at least); a number of the houses were scooped up by the state. The state turned around and turned them into Section 8 family housing. Can you imagine, buying a 350K dollar home in a nice suburb, to watch your neighbors live there for free?
HUD scooped up a bunch of homes as well. I watched a number of high-end houses that were bought by a 'qualified' couple. The unmarried couple were running a pretty good buy and flip business.
 
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I was in the local grocery store today, waiting for a friend to have lunch at the hot deli bar... The store puts the meat that is on special in one of the end coolers. A year ago, people would walk up to the cooler, glance at the selection, grab and go. Today, the people would walk up to the cooler and get that "deer in headlights" look... Some took 3 minutes to dig around, find the least expensive package and eventually put it in their basket and move on. Deja Vu
 
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There is very little "guidance" being publicized for the future, on anything. Chart below is wheat. Their numbers are conservative.

Wheat is expected to trade at 1109.55 USd/BU by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1219.12 in 12 months time.​



commodity-wheat.png
 
I think it is interesting to note that we are still facing supply-side shortages brought about by Covid, which naturally raise prices. The Fed is trying to combat this market dynamic by raising interest rates which is almost completely the wrong solution. The inflation we are seeing now is not only the result of the Fed raising rates but market dynamics skewed by an external shock lowering aggregate supply while aggregate demand remains high. The Fed is hoping that by raising inflation they can lower demand to match the new supply curve. I think the Fed is way too aggressive with interest rates and is going to cause a lot of financial pain for Americans for quite a while.
 
I think it is interesting to note that we are still facing supply-side shortages brought about by Covid, which naturally raise prices. The Fed is trying to combat this market dynamic by raising interest rates which is almost completely the wrong solution. The inflation we are seeing now is not only the result of the Fed raising rates but market dynamics skewed by an external shock lowering aggregate supply while aggregate demand remains high. The Fed is hoping that by raising inflation they can lower demand to match the new supply curve. I think the Fed is way too aggressive with interest rates and is going to cause a lot of financial pain for Americans for quite a while.
I like your perspective. As Jerome Powell said earlier this year "No one knows where we will be at the end of this year".... I think that still holds true.
Regardless, the American people are going to bear the brunt of the economic chaos. Pick your Poison.
 
I like your perspective. As Jerome Powell said earlier this year "No one knows where we will be at the end of this year".... I think that still holds true.
Regardless, the American people are going to bear the brunt of the economic chaos. Pick your Poison.
Thank you. I agree with you 100%. The Fed should be holding steady as opposed to their current contractionary policy considering we were hit by an unprecedented shock that no one knows how it will affect the economy.
 
Thank you. I agree with you 100%. The Fed should be holding steady as opposed to their current contractionary policy considering we were hit by an unprecedented shock that no one knows how it will affect the economy.
And this is why so many old guys are wide awake at 3 am.... Brain is trying to make order out of chaos.
 
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In about 18 months you can buy that $4,000 rifle listed in the PX for $2,000..... Hooker may hold her value a bit better... Just depends.
pfffffff
Rifle will always be cheaper.. NO maintenance costs. (except for the occasional oil and lube)
 
I'd buy the crap out of 12/2 12/3... it's only going to go up ^^^^^^^^^^^^^ up up up
edit - as you charge mkt price, your margin dollars will go ^^^^^^
I have a good supply, SER cable is out of stock everywhere and the price went up 300% over night here. Going to be a lot of homes setting out there with out getting done. I have been telling my guys get ready to not work because we do not have the material.
 
I have a good supply, SER cable is out of stock everywhere and the price went up 300% over night here. Going to be a lot of homes setting out there with out getting done. I have been telling my guys get ready to not work because we do not have the material.
I guess you could just run conduit and pull in conductors when they become available. Might add some cost to the price of the house. Still a lot of American's with money to burn building houses. The reality of the situation has not set in.
 
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I guess you could just run conduit and pull in conductors when they become available. Might add some cost to the price of the house. Still a lot of American's with money to burn building houses. The reality of the situation has not set in.

That is what gets me. I still have friends burning money like there is no tomorrow with no slowing down. Guys at the range blowing through piles of 6.5 prc or 6mm arc like it is going to burn a hole in their ammo can if it doesn't go downrange today. I get having some extra income, but damn. Watching someone shoot 6.5 prc just reminds me of why I narrowed everything down to just a few common calibers.

I also see guys doing rifle/ammo reviews on youtube and acting like nothing has changed. Guys that are sponsored or get ammo sent to them are just out of the loop. Just watching a video on the perfect hunting cartridge would get whittled down real quick if it took into account availability/cost/ popularity. 6.5 prc or 300 wsm are off my list for now. Also, I might add that these guys don't reload. I could see it a bit more if they were putting them together. Inflation has even hit that pretty hard. We can get primers from time to time, but prices are 3x what they were. Powder is a bit more, and cases have gone up a bit. I would guess my reloading cost on .308 has almost doubled. 9mm for sure has doubled. Guys paying 3 and 4 bucks a round for bigger cartridges ready to go, well you can keep that.

I noticed butter has gotten crazy. We canned a bunch 6 months or so ago. It has gone from 3 dollars for 2 pounds to 5 bucks a pound now. I think we are starting to see the crazy leaking in. I also noticed they are really pushing the vegan crap, even in Oklahoma. People are not going to go for that here. You take people's bacon, butter, cheeseburgers, and fried food and you are going to start a fight. Eggs have gone way up and I hear they may make it worse with a new strain of bird flu and more chicken destruction. I think we are getting close to the breakover point.
 
More and more home buyers going into ARMs. I don't see that as a good move.
I agree with you. Every home owner should, at one time or the other, owned a home financed with an ARM. That is the only way that "bad taste" will remain in their mouth for the rest of their life..... I've had ARM's with balloon notes and lived in Orange County, CA when the County went broke due to the Treasurer playing in the derivatives market with public funds. That was a scarey time of life for thousands of residents.
The worse the American economy gets, the more of these schemes we will see.

 
Those of us who have survived (somewhat) 3 - 4 recessions knew the free money and low interest would quickly turn around to bite the middle class in the ass....Paul Volcker did the right thing

 
More and more home buyers going into ARMs. I don't see that as a good move.

Man, this is like the easiest question to pass on an IQ test, and these people are failing. Well, unless the Fed sits on its collective hands while several bubbles inflate, and then reacts too late by raising rates so far and fast that it completely tanks the economy, and then has to cut rates to effectively zero and keep them there for a while decade just to generate the appearance of organic GDP growth. Hasn't happened before, though.

But seriously, it's going to be fucking hilarious when these people have to go refi their mortgages in five years when David Stockman Part II has jacked rates up into the mid-teens, and oh yeah, their home is also worth only half as much as when they bought it.
 
Man, this is like the easiest question to pass on an IQ test, and these people are failing. Well, unless the Fed sits on its collective hands while several bubbles inflate, and then reacts too late by raising rates so far and fast that it completely tanks the economy, and then has to cut rates to effectively zero and keep them there for a while decade just to generate the appearance of organic GDP growth. Hasn't happened before, though.

But seriously, it's going to be fucking hilarious when these people have to go refi their mortgages in five years when David Stockman Part II has jacked rates up into the mid-teens, and oh yeah, their home is also worth only half as much as when they bought it.
Deja Vu X 3