Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[lariat]

You stop inflation by dramatically reducing Federal government spending. The Federal government cannot quit spending meanwhile beating the citizens to death with inflation AND high interest rates.

Monetary inflation cannot stop at this point due to the debt that has to be repaid and is being added to daily. But prices going up or down (price inflation/deflation) are dependent upon consumer demand - what the market will bear. Its very hard to force people to buy what they don't want or cannot afford. This is the issue. If there is less activity in the economy there is less taxation through the velocity of money. In order to pay for everything that the government is doing and while transactional velocity is decreasing then taxes have to go up to pay the debt. It's to the point we have a catch-22 - how do you pay for continuing government spending with lower tax revenues.

The government isn't going to stop spending, because the politicians are not voting for the benefit of the people or the country. So we are not getting off the ride until it reaches its natural conclusion.

If the US loses reserve currency status, all bets are off.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

You stop inflation by dramatically reducing Federal government spending. The Federal government cannot quit spending meanwhile beating the citizens to death with inflation AND high interest rates.

What you say holds true for the past 3 years. But, that is not "sustainable".
Unless there is some sort of financial miracle, the buying power of the USD will continue to decline.
A quick but painful remedy would be to bring back the "Gold Standard".... But the gold inventory would have to be inventoried first.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cracker Barrel is the latest restaurant chain to signal trouble ahead as it sees fewer diners​

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. late Thursday called for lower profit and sales ahead as it welcomed fewer diners to its restaurants and slashed its dividend, saying it wants to focus on growing the business.
Cracker Barrel said it expects fiscal third- and fourth-quarter results to be below its expectations mostly “due to weaker-than-anticipated traffic,” it said. It did not provide figures for the two upcoming quarters.
Shares of Cracker Barrel CBRL, +1.22% dropped 10.3% in the extended session Thursday, after ending the regular session up 1.2%
The company is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results on May 30. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the chain to report revenue of $835 million in the fiscal third quarter and of $913 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, which would compare with $833 million in the third quarter of 2023 and $837 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome and his 'work from home" excuses...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell contracted COVID-19 for the second time and is working from home while he recovers, the Fed said Friday.
“Chair Powell tested positive for COVID-19 late yesterday and is experiencing symptoms,” a Fed spokesperson said in a statement. “Following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, he is staying away from others and working at home.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-tests-positive-for-covid-for-second-time-f84cc069

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The FED's plan is working... More inflation needed to slow things down.

Redfin Reports the Median U.S. Home Price Hit an All-Time High of $434,000 in April

SEATTLE, May 17, 2024--(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. home sale price rose 6.2% year over year in April to $433,558—the highest level on record, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“The labor market was red-hot in 2021 and 2022, but that level of feverish activity has calmed down,” Harry Holzer, a Georgetown University public policy professor and former Labor Department chief economist, told LinkedIn earlier this week. “The Fed wanted it to [come] down as a battle against inflation, which means taking some wind out of the sails. Any calming down in the labor market is going to affect new entrants first.”
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Here is a good example of something I have been explaining to some young people in college. A young person finishing high school is bombarded with information of what degree is being hired the fastest... Fast forward 4 - 5 years and the "cycle" has evolved. There are some degrees that are 'timeless" in their demand. The same can be said for becoming a journeyman in the "Trades". Serving a 4 - 5 year apprentice program will get a young person into a profession with a nice pay package.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/the-top-industries-hiring-2024-grads-according-to-linkedin.html