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The USD $

Hobo Hilton

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
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Pacific Northwest
When I hear the terms "Weak USD" or "Strong USD" I am curious as to how strength is measured. What I am being told is it's how the USD relates to a Market Basket of other countries currencies.
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Understanding the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)

The index is currently calculated by factoring in the exchange rates of six major world currencies, which include the Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). The EUR is, by far, the largest component of the index, making up 57.6% of the basket. The weights of the rest of the currencies in the index are JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%).1
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Interesting that the Russian Ruble or the Chinese Yuan is not in the market basket.

Starting to seem like a "Strong USD" is similar to winning a gold metal at the Special Olympics.
 
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IMG_4261.GIF



R
 
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HarryBC said:
Simple measures can be the US Treasury Bond yields, my favorite is the price of gold… in US Dollars
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As "things unfold" it will be interesting to watch gold. Throughout history there have been many players. Too many to mention, actually.
:coffee:
 

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Not so sure...
Gold 1 year (-.25%) 10 years (+9%)
That doesn't seem to be tracking inflation to me...
 
NoDopes said:
Not so sure...
Gold 1 year (-.25%) 10 years (+9%)
That doesn't seem to be tracking inflation to me...
Click to expand...
True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?
 
Hobo Hilton said:
True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?
Click to expand...
I need to research this because I think REITs are the safe place. Not sure how rents won't generally have to keep up with inflation.
 
Hobo Hilton said:
True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?
Click to expand...
Bidens bowels? Lulz when I typed "Bidens" spellchecker changed it to bidet, too funny.
 
vinniedelpino said:
TIPS

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Click to expand...
True... Unfortunately this is tied to the CPI.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)​


Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.


TIPS pay interest twice a year, at a fixed rate. The rate is applied to the adjusted principal; so, like the principal, interest payments rise with inflation and fall with deflation.


You can buy TIPS from us in TreasuryDirect. You also can buy TIPS through a bank or broker. (We no longer sell TIPS in Legacy Treasury Direct, which we are phasing out.)


You can hold a TIPS until it matures or sell it before it matures.
 
NoDopes said:
I need to research this because I think REITs are the safe place. Not sure how rents won't generally have to keep up with inflation.
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FED is talking more and more about raising interest rates. I did a copy / past on this sentence = Economic climates characterized by rising interest rates can cause a net negative effect on REIT shares.

Real estate investment trust - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks.

Bank stocks in rising rate environment.

Both are not bad options.
 
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eca7891 said:
Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks.

Bank stocks in rising rate environment.

Both are not bad options.
Click to expand...
The Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks have had a good 2021. If you chart many of them they ran up great in December... A buy now could be at the peak of the market. Charted a few like ADM, AFL, WBA that had spectacular run ups but looking like the top is formed after the FED minutes were released. MMM is not so good, don't know why............ BAC popped up in the last few days, probably some Buying to Cover...

Banks and rising rates could just be a roller coaster for 2022.... In 2009 BAC fell from $55 down to $5 (Too big to fail).. Holding some of these is good management as the old saying goes "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket"....

Snug your seat belt.
 
Hobo Hilton said:
True... Unfortunately this is tied to the CPI.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)​


Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.


TIPS pay interest twice a year, at a fixed rate. The rate is applied to the adjusted principal; so, like the principal, interest payments rise with inflation and fall with deflation.


You can buy TIPS from us in TreasuryDirect. You also can buy TIPS through a bank or broker. (We no longer sell TIPS in Legacy Treasury Direct, which we are phasing out.)


You can hold a TIPS until it matures or sell it before it matures.
Click to expand...
True. That's the best I've got though.
 
vinniedelpino said:
True. That's the best I've got though.
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I agree........ I was hoping one of the Members had an "ace up their sleeve" where we could just park some cash for the duration and at least break even. So far weapons and ammo sound the best..... But, what if you had to make a quick move for the hills.
 
sea2summit said:
Shoot, NFA items purchased in the late ‘70’s are probably up 900-1500%
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Charger442 said:
well, lets be specific. FA NFA items in the lates 70s.....


and those are up 8,000%. M16A1 was $500 in the 70s plus the $200 tax.
Click to expand...

Exactly! I just completed a transaction of an NFA item I purchased in the mid 80s. 2100% profit. Sadly this is only about 52% per year. :)
I was buying M16s for $765 total price shipped. The good ol' days.
 
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TxLabRat said:
Exactly! I just completed a transaction of an NFA item I purchased in the mid 80s. 2100% profit. Sadly this is only about 52% per year. :)
I was buying M16s for $765 total price shipped. The good ol' days.
Click to expand...
Cut me some slack, I wasn’t even born:ROFLMAO:
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
The Low pe high dividend aristocrate stocks have had a good 2021. If you chart many of them they ran up great in December... A buy now could be at the peak of the market. Charted a few like ADM, AFL, WBA that had spectacular run ups but looking like the top is formed after the FED minutes were released. MMM is not so good, don't know why............ BAC popped up in the last few days, probably some Buying to Cover...

Banks and rising rates could just be a roller coaster for 2022.... In 2009 BAC fell from $55 down to $5 (Too big to fail).. Holding some of these is good management as the old saying goes "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket"....

Snug your seat belt.
Click to expand...
Yeah. Ya gotta do your homework.

I dropped Tesla a week ago for AT&T. ( T will be spinning off their media and cutting their dividend but you get shares of the new company) T has a ex div date this Friday (8%+ forward div and yield)

Split some between 3 big banks ( word is to go regionals )

Split some more in bigger dividend oil plays.

Most of my dividend ones are at about 6.5%-8%.

Still kept some in nvidia even though its prob a bad call. I have always believed in them though. I’ll roll some back into Tesla when I think it has fallen to my liking.
 
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Value is always held by the beholder. Everything can become worthless, somethings are priceless. Ever think of what you can't own that is priceless....what are you willing to pay for it??
 
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eca7891 said:
Yeah. Ya gotta do your homework.

I dropped Tesla a week ago for AT&T. ( T will be spinning off their media and cutting their dividend but you get shares of the new company) T has a ex div date this Friday (8%+ forward div and yield)

Split some between 3 big banks ( word is to go regionals )

Split some more in bigger dividend oil plays.

Most of my dividend ones are at about 6.5%-8%.

Still kept some in nvidia even though its prob a bad call. I have always believed in them though. I’ll roll some back into Tesla when I think it has fallen to my liking.
Click to expand...
Ahhhh "Homework".... Picked one line from a very timely article.

As we have explained in prior letters, this dynamic is part of a transition that the US government is undertaking by rolling maturing short-term Treasuries into long term debt instruments as it prepares to inflate out of an unsustainable debt problem.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
One more gold metal for the USD...... Beat the yen... LOL
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SYDNEY, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The dollar is set to notch up a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the Japanese yen and looks poised to extend the rally if U.S. labour data due later on Friday reinforces the case for early Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
 
Hobo Hilton said:
One more gold metal for the USD...... Beat the yen... LOL
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SYDNEY, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The dollar is set to notch up a fifth consecutive weekly gain on the Japanese yen and looks poised to extend the rally if U.S. labour data due later on Friday reinforces the case for early Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Click to expand...

Jobs added were low compared to expectations. What's that going to do?
 
Charger442 said:
Jobs added were low compared to expectations. What's that going to do?
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America could add jobs until hell freezes over and not save the sinking ship (the USD). The trade deficit is staggering....
Look at it this way. If a man brings home $1,000 / week and his wife spends $2,000 week maintaining the household... How long can that situation go on?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001.


U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.
www.bea.gov www.bea.gov
 
Hobo Hilton said:
America could add jobs until hell freezes over and not save the sinking ship (the USD). The trade deficit is staggering....
Look at it this way. If a man brings home $1,000 / week and his wife spends $2,000 week maintaining the household... How long can that situation go on?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001.


U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, October 2021 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.
www.bea.gov www.bea.gov
Click to expand...

what does the wife look like?
 
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An excellent example of "Fund Manager's" playing with other people's money. Deja Vu of the investments into the limited partnership oil industry scam back in the 70's.
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Blackstone Inc.'s infrastructure unit has agreed to invest $3 billion in Invenergy Renewables Holdings LLC, as the private-equity firm throws more support to the clean energy transition.
The investment will help Invenergy develop its clean energy platform, the companies said in a joint release.
Invenergy's management and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, one of the largest public pension plans in Canada, will remain majority owners of the company. Invenergy will continue to be a managing member, the companies said.
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Blackstone will get their cut, the Canadian pension fund managers will get their cut and the rank and file pension members are taking 100% of the risk. Something for everyone who is counting on a pension when they retire to think about.
 
eca7891 said:
She had better have the bank account to match.
Click to expand...

eca7891​

Maybe she is running on credit

U.S. consumer credit soared by $40 billion in November, more than double expectations and compared with a $16 billion gain in October, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Economists had been expecting a $20 billion gain, according to the Wall Street Journal forecast.
That’s an annual growth rate of 11% in November, up from a 4.4% gain in the prior month.
Revolving credit, such as credit cards, rose 23.4% after a 7.8% gain in October.

The trap has been set.
 
Hobo Hilton said:
True.... The "metal's" are not designed to keep pace with inflation... Apples to Oranges.
I'll throw this question out - "Long term, is there anything that will keep up with inflation"?
Click to expand...

Land.
Except for a few select spots in the world they stopped making it a long time ago.

Energy.
The more we make the more people use.

Women.
They will always try to take at least half of what you own.

Freedom.
The butcher's bill will always be paid in blood.
 
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Like rats off of a sinking ship..... And these are the clowns that got America into this mess....

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Fed’s Richard Clarida to Leave Vice Chair Position Two Weeks Early

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida intends to resign from the board of governors on Jan. 14, two weeks before his term is due to expire. Most Read from BloombergCypriot Scientist Says Deltacron Covid Variant Isn’t ErrorWorld’s Biggest Crypto Fortune Began With a Friendly...
ca.finance.yahoo.com ca.finance.yahoo.com
 
Hobo Hilton said:
Like rats off of a sinking ship..... And these are the clowns that got America into this mess....

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Fed’s Richard Clarida to Leave Vice Chair Position Two Weeks Early

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida intends to resign from the board of governors on Jan. 14, two weeks before his term is due to expire. Most Read from BloombergCypriot Scientist Says Deltacron Covid Variant Isn’t ErrorWorld’s Biggest Crypto Fortune Began With a Friendly...
ca.finance.yahoo.com ca.finance.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
You are correct sir! The Fed has stayed with 0 interest and free money too long in my opinion, now with 4 incremental rate hikes this coming year, will be a bumpy ride for sure……
 
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A question for the Hide:
What is going to become an "Alternate form of Currency" in the next year ?


From bes to Bitcoin: alternative currencies in the ancient Roman world | HistoryExtra

Be it Bristol or Brixton, in recent years a number of cities in Britain have developed their own alternative, local currencies. Intended to support independent businesses, these currencies work alongside pounds sterling to encourage more money to be spent in the local economy. But, as historian...
www.historyextra.com
 
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