• Watch Out for Scammers!

    We've now added a color code for all accounts. Orange accounts are new members, Blue are full members, and Green are Supporters. If you get a message about a sale from an orange account, make sure you pay attention before sending any money!

Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

Interesting read for a Saturday morning, the first day of the last quarter. Sensing a bit of panic from the writer.
________
Markets entered a perilous new phase in the past week,..... “The Fed is breaking things,”...... Bank of England was forced to prop up the market...
... two broad categories of concern right now... The Fed is “learning in real time”


 
Saw report fed is having emergency meeting on Monday
 

World Container Index​


Our detailed assessment for Thursday, 29 September 2022​


  • The composite index decreased by 10% this week, the 31st consecutive weekly decrease, and has dropped by 61% when compared with the same week last year.
  • The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $4,014 per 40-foot container is now 61% below the peak of $10,377 reached in September 2021, but it remains 8% higher than the 5-year average of $3,714.
  • The average composite index for the year-to-date is $7,597 per 40ft container, which is $3,884 higher than the five-year average ($3,714 mentioned above).
 
  • Like
Reactions: gigamortis
Saw this comment but can't find any articles.

"In Germany and Austria, the taxation of silver coins was changed overnight. On average, the ounce was 3 euros more expensive. The system wobbles enormously."

 
Last edited:
Gold is money.
Been that way a long time. Nothing has changed except the perception of American's.
Gold coins were first struck on the order of King Croesus of Lydia (an area that is now part of Turkey), around 550 BC. They circulated as currency in many countries before the introduction of paper money.
 
keep your gold; ammo, rice, butter and water will be worth far more

Yeah, if things ever get that bad, I gotta imagine that stuff like 22LR ammo and tubes of bearing grease will be worth way more than shiny metal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUTGERS95
Yeah, if things ever get that bad, I gotta imagine that stuff like 22LR ammo and tubes of bearing grease will be worth way more than shiny metal.
If shtf, I won’t trade one round of ammunition. Only an idiot would do that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: E. Bryant
If shtf, I won’t trade one round of ammunition. Only an idiot would do that.

And eventually stuff like a quart of 5W30 might be even more valuable. People take so many things for granted.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KZP
And eventually stuff like a quart of 5W30 might be even more valuable. People take so many things for granted.
I deal in a lot of "used" mechanical stuff"... Even an 8 ounce can of "3 in 1 oil" could become priceless in the right situation. Amazing how a large piece of equipment that has been stored in a damp building will have some minor part that is stuck and just needs a few drops of oil.
 
Could be fake news. IMO stuff like this will start appearing in news headlines claiming "out of nowhere XYZ has started rapid decline". Guessing if people knew in advance they would be yanking money out of "investments".

 
I deal in a lot of "used" mechanical stuff"... Even an 8 ounce can of "3 in 1 oil" could become priceless in the right situation. Amazing how a large piece of equipment that has been stored in a damp building will have some minor part that is stuck and just needs a few drops of oil.

The good news is that just about any oil works for that task, especially if mixed with a bit of solvent (like kerosene). Where people are going to have a bad day is when they learn just how much technical wizardry is involved with making the modern world turn.

Can 1 oz silver bars be used as brake pads, or am I going to have a bad day if I find myself in that situation?

Pretty sure that it's possible to lay in enough 22LR that one could trade away 90% of the supply for goods and services and still have enough for generations of subsistence hunting. The primary downside is weight, so nomads need not apply.
 


Me right now.


I feel pretty good right now relative to a lot of other schmucks, but failure to stick to my convictions (which have taken a beating over the past few years) resulted in more downside in parts of my portfolio than would have occurred with better execution. Put another way, I got caught straddling the fence. Not a big deal and I'm hoping to make it up when the market rebounds, because there will be a lot of normies sitting on the sidelines by the time that happens.

If there wasn't a looming recession, it would likely already be time to dip a couple toes back into the water. But I think doing so at this moment would result in losing those little piggies to alligator bites. Best to exercise some patience, wait to see how the macro situation evolves (we all know that it's bad, but how bad and where remains to be seen), and then see if/when the Fed capitulates.
 
I feel pretty good right now relative to a lot of other schmucks, but failure to stick to my convictions (which have taken a beating over the past few years) resulted in more downside in parts of my portfolio than would have occurred with better execution. Put another way, I got caught straddling the fence. Not a big deal and I'm hoping to make it up when the market rebounds, because there will be a lot of normies sitting on the sidelines by the time that happens.

If there wasn't a looming recession, it would likely already be time to dip a couple toes back into the water. But I think doing so at this moment would result in losing those little piggies to alligator bites. Best to exercise some patience, wait to see how the macro situation evolves (we all know that it's bad, but how bad and where remains to be seen), and then see if/when the Fed capitulates.
There are several small countries that are more "nimble" than America. Many of them are too small for the Blackstone's of the financial world to even think of even investing in them. For a small player there will be some investment opportunities. I liken America's situation to the man in the story below. Everyone around him, similar to small countries, survived. He got himself into a bad situation, just as the United States has.

 
Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.
 
  • Like
Reactions: devildog93
Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.
I think now is a good time to buy bond funds as the flight to quality will be great, despite the FED actions
 
I’m not really sure what to call what we are experiencing

Lots of help wanted signs, lots of folks buying shit, but negative GDP and inflation no doubt

Sadly if the government wouldn’t have fucked the world with hysterically overreacting to the wuhan engineered virus, none of this would be happening
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUTGERS95
Might be a good time to have some fear.
Some say "Everything is good"... "Could not be better"....
IDK

Things ain’t perfect, never will be

But look at how pathetic people are now, I mean after covid everyone is a germphobe, post 9/11 everyone must be a terrorist, etc etc

Folks are damn near scared of their own farts

Always work on making things better, no doubt, but the sky ain’t always falling, some peeps needs to learn the fine art of chill
 
Things ain’t perfect, never will be

But look at how pathetic people are now, I mean after covid everyone is a germphobe, post 9/11 everyone must be a terrorist, etc etc

Folks are damn near scared of their own farts

Always work on making things better, no doubt, but the sky ain’t always falling, some peeps needs to learn the fine art of chill
True... I find myself spending more time on my homestead rather than going to big gatherings. Gettin' more difficult to find "like minded" individuals. I worked on firewood today and my garden is about done for the season. Not that I'm scared but two things are high on my priority list is to have a full belly and stay warm this winter. After that I'll just take each day in stride.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_7428.JPG
    IMG_7428.JPG
    749.6 KB · Views: 31
  • IMG_7392.JPG
    IMG_7392.JPG
    566.3 KB · Views: 34
  • IMG_7320.JPG
    IMG_7320.JPG
    483.8 KB · Views: 33



The Germans were the first to know back in 2008.. I think it was Deutsch Bank that hedged its risks before the rest did.

Edit to add:

Classic scene. In this scene the unspoken decision has already been made by the BOD and shareholders and Jeremy Iron's character has been told his left and right limits. Wish they had that scene in here and traced how it came to be.

 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
I'm 50/50 on validity of this. I think they are capable, but not sure if they did it this time.

1664857732693.png
 
Not sure these are accurate numbers... Government generated:
The level of job openings plunged by more than a million in August, providing a potential early sign that the massive U.S. labor gap is beginning to close.
Available positions totaled 10.05 million for the month, a 10% drop from the 11.17 million reported in July, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Tuesday. That was also well below the 11.1 million FactSet estimate.

 
Been watching prices on about 40 different used 2500 Cummins. Just today they almost all dropped 2-3k.
In the financial world "Inventory" has become the focus. Similar to a game of musical chairs. Wonderful to have a bunch of widgets on the shelf that are selling at cost plus 50%..... Until the consumer stops buying them. When the music stops the inventory just sits on the shelf. The only choice for the seller is to lower the price, clear out inventory and not get stuck with widgets that no one needs or can afford.
Cash will be King.
 
Disappointment.... Hmmmm
_____________
President Joe Biden "is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine," said a White House statement on Wednesday from National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and top economic adviser Brian Deese. "In light of today's action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC's control over energy prices," the statement also said. In addition, the statement said Biden will continue to direct Strategic Petroleum Reserves releases "as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security," and he is directing the Energy Department's secretary to "explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term."
________________
Disappointment is what American's feel when they fuel up to go to work.

 
Read the tea leaves... You may get a have opinion than the "Talking Heads"....
Has inflation been used to boost the numbers ?




Fed trying to play up the numbers UP before election.
"The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was also 0.6 percent." link

Official Q3 release is Oct 27 link

Edit - Fed might release positive news, but expect a 'readjustment' after the election. RE - Obama vs POS Mitten in debate. Obama touted how Unemployment went down, turns out the GOV forgot to add in CA. After the fact, unemployment was higher than reported. People who spoke out on initial release were crusified by media.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
It has started. We will see a lot more of this:
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under
carport on side of house. Please don't take
garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks.



 
It has started. We will see a lot more of this:
Were moving and have lots of free stuff under
carport on side of house. Please don't take
garage door or opener or fence boards. Thanks.



could be a pissed EX; trying to screw the guy one more time with a false advertisement :)
 
There is significant cost-saving opportunity for complex supply chains by optimizing inventory levels, positively impacting inventory turnover, for every part in the system. It is tempting to focus on avoiding shortages because of how chaotic and costly they are, but improvement in the long term requires a deep dive into improving inventory turnover, which means you need to reduce inventory levels and costs across the board.
One thing for sure about the future. You will not get what you want, when you want it at an affordable price.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: babyguppy
The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, a global recession may be imminent. The World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook for September 2022 surveyed economic leaders from around the world to collect insights on their reading of the global economic situation. The outlook is grim, with 73% of respondents believing that a global recession is either somewhat likely or extremely likely.
 
Hang on to your HATS.. It's double speak time.
Low Unemployment -

High jobless claims
Labor Participation chart says what?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton