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Inflation.......... ?

Inflation + Debt =
Yeah, no shit. That’s why inflation is used to begin with. Make that debt cheaper to repay - lower the effective rate.

Not trying to shit on your post, but that is some basic stuff made out to be the big deal it isn’t. Happens every day.
 
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Yeah, no shit. That’s why inflation is used to begin with. Make that debt cheaper to repay - lower the effective rate.

Not trying to shit on your post, but that is some basic stuff made out to be the big deal it isn’t. Happens every day.
True Lariat, but I swear, they don't teach this basic stuff anymore.
I mean, in High School, you had a little understanding of it through some math classes. Ask a kid now, and they'll tell you how the check loan place is the greatest thing in the world.
 
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True Lariat, but I swear, they don't teach this basic stuff anymore.
I mean, in High School, you had a little understanding of it through some math classes. Ask a kid now, and they'll tell you how the check loan place is the greatest thing in the world.
Their plan... "The Dumbing of America" is working... Just look around and try to deal with the billing / accounting department of a business or try to get an expired Medical Prescription renewed... Try calling your Doctor's office and you get a recording with 15 options to chose from. No option to talk to a real person. Get online and go to your medical provider's website... First thing that pops up is the Artificial Intelligence screen to help you.
The most mighty country in the world is bogged down in it's on crap...
I hope we don't have to fight a war.
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Make more... Spend more ... Make more .... Spend more

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for August was revised higher to show spending increasing 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 0.4%.


 
Make more... Spend more ... Make more .... Spend more

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for August was revised higher to show spending increasing 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 0.4%.


need to dig deeper and see how that spending occurred i.e revolving debt
 
can't repo it, if you can find it... sawzall goes brrrrrrrr
There have been times when finance companies did not even want the repo back... They were losing money transporting and selling them off at the auctions. The "Back Lot's" at the dealerships were over flowing with cars that people voluntarily brought back to the dealer. There were some killer deals made buying one of those "Back Lot" cars... Amount owed on car minus cost to send it to auction where it went wholesale minus the middle man fees for the paper work minus cost to have replacement keys made and programed... A look at the "Back Lot's" is a sure fire indicator of how the economy is doing.
 
need to dig deeper and see how that spending occurred i.e revolving debt

Gotta spend that last little bit of the HELOC funds before the bank shuts down everyone's party.

Not even Krugman is willing to keep the charade going any longer:

 
Gotta spend that last little bit of the HELOC funds before the bank shuts down everyone's party.

Not even Krugman is willing to keep the charade going any longer:

yup! I expect spending to fall and the Fed to change stance on rates

the reality is however, if they'd not attack fossil fuels and demand investment and manufacturing back to our hemisphere, we'd be ok long-term. Need to have more of a fk china attitude
 
Get ready for the term "double-top inflation":

I think the world is discovering how little control the FED Reserve has in relationship to the White House running the $$$ printing presses wide open.
I see more of a "ripple effect" rather than a "double top" or even "triple top" inflation.
The uncertainty will continue until well after the 2024 elections.
 
I think the world is discovering how little control the FED Reserve has in relationship to the White House running the $$$ printing presses wide open.

The White House doesn't print money, but it is in charge of Treasury bond issuance. If the Fed doesn't exist, the federal government can still run a deficit, but 100% of that deficit gets financed by issuance of Treasuries to the public. For every dollar of additional spending, a dollar is removed from circulation, so there's no inflation (woeful misallocation of capital, sure - but that's a different problem). It's only when the Fed gets involved that we see this inflation problem.

It appears that the Treasury is planning on issuing $550B in bonds during Q4, up from its earlier estimate of $400B. That's another $150B in cash that must come out of circulation instead of getting spent on GameStop shares, new houses, Bitcoin, and monkey JPEGs. Does this sound inflationary, or deflationary? There's another $500B planned for Q1. Yes, this implies an annualized deficit of $2T/year.
 
The White House doesn't print money, but it is in charge of Treasury bond issuance. If the Fed doesn't exist, the federal government can still run a deficit, but 100% of that deficit gets financed by issuance of Treasuries to the public. For every dollar of additional spending, a dollar is removed from circulation, so there's no inflation (woeful misallocation of capital, sure - but that's a different problem). It's only when the Fed gets involved that we see this inflation problem.

It appears that the Treasury is planning on issuing $550B in bonds during Q4, up from its earlier estimate of $400B. That's another $150B in cash that must come out of circulation instead of getting spent on GameStop shares, new houses, Bitcoin, and monkey JPEGs. Does this sound inflationary, or deflationary? There's another $500B planned for Q1. Yes, this implies an annualized deficit of $2T/year.
You are correct about the White House not printing money. To me, When the POTUS some how sends $1 billion dollars to Ukraine, that is free money. It will never be paid back, much less have any accountability of where it went. Doubtful there are any IOU's floating around.

I copied your line here:
If the Fed doesn't exist, the federal government can still run a deficit, but 100% of that deficit gets financed by issuance of Treasuries to the public.
So, that $1 billion that went to Ukraine, will be covered by issuance of Treasuries to the public ?
 
So, that $1 billion that went to Ukraine, will be covered by issuance of Treasuries to the public ?

To the extent that it's not funded by additional taxes, yes - it's covered by the issuance of Treasury bonds. This is only inflationary if the Fed "prints" Reserve Notes; otherwise, that's $1B that isn't getting spent on something else like McMansions and pickup trucks and precious metals.
 
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This is a little long but interesting read. Especially when J Powell said this afternoon he "is going after people with excessive savings"

Excerpt from the article:
"What level of inflation would do the trick?

I think we’ll see consumer price inflation settling into a range between 4 and 6%. Without the energy shock, we would probably be there now. Why 4 to 6%? Because it has to be a level that the government can get away with. Financial repression means stealing money from savers and old people slowly. The slow part is important in order for the pain not to become too apparent. We’re already seeing respected economists and central bankers arguing that inflation should indeed be allowed at a higher level than the 2% target they set in the past. Our frame of reference is already shifting up."

 
This is a little long but interesting read. Especially when J Powell said this afternoon he "is going after people with excessive savings"

Excerpt from the article:
"What level of inflation would do the trick?

I think we’ll see consumer price inflation settling into a range between 4 and 6%. Without the energy shock, we would probably be there now. Why 4 to 6%? Because it has to be a level that the government can get away with. Financial repression means stealing money from savers and old people slowly. The slow part is important in order for the pain not to become too apparent. We’re already seeing respected economists and central bankers arguing that inflation should indeed be allowed at a higher level than the 2% target they set in the past. Our frame of reference is already shifting up."

from the article
-The slow part is important in order for the pain not to become too apparent
-Who wins? The government.
-The private sector debt service ratio in France is 20%, in Belgium and the Netherlands it’s even higher. It’s 11% in Germany and about 13% in the US. With rising interest rates, it won’t take long until there will be serious pain. So it’s just a matter of time before we all get there, but Europe is at the forefront.
edit - more from article
what does this mean for investors?
First of all: avoid government bonds. Investors in government debt are the ones who will be robbed slowly. Within equities, there are sectors that will do very well. The great problems we have – energy, climate change, defence, inequality, our dependence on production from China – will all be solved by massive investment.
 
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Gotta spend that last little bit of the HELOC funds before the bank shuts down everyone's party.

Not even Krugman is willing to keep the charade going any longer:

He is the dumbest "economist" ever, and has a Nobel Prize to prove what an imbacil he is. If that stupid fucker threw darts at a board his predictive succes would tripple. Paul Krugman is to economics what Biden is to foreign policy. He gets it exactly wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME.
 
jobs report anyone?

Private payrolls grew 233,000, close to the figure estimated by the ADP payrolls report released on Wednesday. That was also hotter than expected. The consensus forecast was for 200,000 private sector jobs.

Manufacturing payrolls, expected to rise by just 13,000, jumped 32,000. The September figure for manufacturing was revised up 1,000 to 23,000. This upside surprise came despite signs that the manufacturing sector has seen slowing demand in recent months.
private sector services side of the economy was 200,000. Every major sector added jobs, including the
  • IT - information technology sector, which added 4,000 jobs.
  • Health care and social assistance at 71,000 jobs.
  • Hospitality and leisure grew by 35,000.
Government employment expanded by 28,000 jobs.

 
jobs report anyone?

Private payrolls grew 233,000, close to the figure estimated by the ADP payrolls report released on Wednesday. That was also hotter than expected. The consensus forecast was for 200,000 private sector jobs.

Manufacturing payrolls, expected to rise by just 13,000, jumped 32,000. The September figure for manufacturing was revised up 1,000 to 23,000. This upside surprise came despite signs that the manufacturing sector has seen slowing demand in recent months.
private sector services side of the economy was 200,000. Every major sector added jobs, including the
  • IT - information technology sector, which added 4,000 jobs.
  • Health care and social assistance at 71,000 jobs.
  • Hospitality and leisure grew by 35,000.
Government employment expanded by 28,000 jobs.

Nothing positive in that report.
 
jobs report anyone?

Private payrolls grew 233,000, close to the figure estimated by the ADP payrolls report released on Wednesday. That was also hotter than expected. The consensus forecast was for 200,000 private sector jobs.

Manufacturing payrolls, expected to rise by just 13,000, jumped 32,000. The September figure for manufacturing was revised up 1,000 to 23,000. This upside surprise came despite signs that the manufacturing sector has seen slowing demand in recent months.
private sector services side of the economy was 200,000. Every major sector added jobs, including the
  • IT - information technology sector, which added 4,000 jobs.
  • Health care and social assistance at 71,000 jobs.
  • Hospitality and leisure grew by 35,000.
Government employment expanded by 28,000 jobs.

U.S. stocks turned lower Friday afternoon, giving up sharp gains seen earlier in the session, as investors weigh the jobs report for October. All three major benchmarks are heading for weekly losses, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way lower.
 
U.S. stocks turned lower Friday afternoon, giving up sharp gains seen earlier in the session, as investors weigh the jobs report for October. All three major benchmarks are heading for weekly losses, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way lower.
would love to know, the average wage per hour of some of these jobs.
My gut tells me, mostly 15 dollar an hour stuff.
Hospitality is all bar and restaurant stuff. so bottom of the bucket stuff. Pray that you get tips.
- In Pennsylvania, the cash minimum wage for a waitress is $2.83 an hour.
I still believe all the good manufacturing jobs 40.00+ an hour all moved over sees.
in the 1990's the media was telling everyone about all of Clinton's job creation. Avg wage of 11.00 an hour; media failed to mention all the John Deer jobs etc (40.00 plus an hour) that were closed down and shipped over seas.
 
Very few Americans ever think about "corn"...
View attachment 8002363
Everyone everywhere needs to be thinking about corn. It’s a lynchpin to many many things, from food to employment.
 
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The world changed. Prices will never come down.
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“The Fed is going to need a bigger hose if it wants to put out the inflation fire, because once price increases spread to services, the battle is hard for a central bank to win without jacking up interest rates high enough to produce the demand destruction normally seen only in severe recessions,” Rupkey told CNN Business.

 
If it weren't for the government pushing for corn ethanol into our gasoline, corn as well as all livestock prices would have been much lower than even pre-hyperinflation prices. I can remember when seafood was a luxury that cost more than good cuts of beef. Now, seafood is cheaper than beef.
 
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If it weren't for the government pushing for corn ethanol into our gasoline, corn as well as all livestock prices would have been much lower than even pre-hyperinflation prices. I can remember when seafood was a luxury that cost more than good cuts of beef. Now, seafood is cheaper than beef.
None of the so called "analyst" will ever dare to factor in the increased cost of "Government Rules and Regulations"....
Take Government Regulations out of a $75k Ford pickup and it could be bought for $30k......
Where were all of you when America changed".... ?
 
Starting Jan. 1, 2023, the maximum earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax will increase by nearly 9 percent to $160,200—up from the $147,000 maximum for 2022, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced Oct. 13.

One more thing that will never come down... Taxes. 9% increase next year.
 
Picked up an old Barn Find truck with rotten tires. Replaced the tires this weekend.
As I finished up and walked out the door of the store a thought hit me.
I just paid $900 for a set of $400 tires.
My take on inflation is much different than the Government's take.
The World Changed.
 

Consumer prices up 7.1% from a year ago​

The increase from a year ago, while well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for a healthy inflation level, was tied for the lowest since November 2021.

 

Recession Risk Remains Despite Cooling Inflation -- Market Talk

Today 10:11 AM ET (Dow Jones)Print

10:11 ET - Inflation dropping to an annual rate of 7.1% in November from 7.7% in October shows some pressures are cooling, but prices for necessities like food and shelter remain historically high and are still straining household budgets, says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. The Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, albeit not as heavily, and is prepared to accept the risk of a recession in order to stabilize prices, the analyst says. "A recession in 2023 is not a sure thing, but there's broad agreement that the risks of one remain," he says. ([email protected])
 
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Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial: "The Equity and Treasury market alike are applauding the CPI report, which is clearly indicating that inflation has peaked and edging lower at a faster than expected pace. While the Fed still has to 'keep at it' its job is becoming easier as demand has begun to soften in the face of higher prices. This report should offer Chairman Powell the opportunity to acknowledge that finally inflation has plateaued, if not fully peaked."
 
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Housing inflation has not peaked.
Housing costs continued to gain in November but a decline in overall inflation could be a good sign for would-be buyers priced out of the housing market by higher mortgage rates.
The Consumer Price Index, a measure of price inflation in U.S. goods and services, gained a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% in November from the month prior, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday. Core CPI, a measure of costs without food and energy included, rose 0.2%—the smallest such gain since August 2021, the BLS said.
Shelter costs were the driving force behind the core CPI gain, the bureau said. The shelter category increased 0.6%, a slower gain than the 0.8% increase in October. Two measures of primary housing service costs, rent of primary residence and owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, both accelerated from the month prior, gaining a seasonally-adjusted 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.
Higher shelter costs are likely little surprise to investors—or the Federal Reserve, which has tightened monetary policy in an effort to combat inflation. Given the gauge’s lagging nature, significant home prices and rent increases seen earlier this year will likely take time to fully reflect in the index due to the report’s methodology.

 
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Although the White House is cheering a 7.1% inflation rate as some kind of achievement, there is not much joyfulness is so horrific a number. At that pace, prices will double in about a decade.
I don't think we will have to wait a decade. Between butter, eggs, and the price of meat a lot of staples have already doubled. Then again, I don't think their inflation rate is a true number that applies to normie blue collar workers or people around that level of income.