Flooding in TX Hill Country/Kerrville

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Minuteman
  • Jan 29, 2005
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    Guadalupe River rose 26' in 45 minutes, sweeping away houses and trees in Hill Country/Kerrville.
    (Updated): At least 24 confirmed dead; and 23 kids from Camp Mystic missing as helicopters, boats & rescue divers continue rescue effort. At least 167 rescued by helicopters at time of Abbott presser.



    (Starts around 8:00)
     
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    For those of us not in the area, this was caused by 'massive rains' I'm assuming?

    They were expecting 3-8" based on National Weather Service, fortunately had some (but not enough) emergency services readied; it was over 12" very quickly. Much of the river bed was dry, rising 26 feet in under an hour is insane. The young woman in the tree above said she had to dodge refrigerators, RVs,etc. Many cars were floating and most the deaths so far were in vehicles.
    It's normally a "lazy river" where people go tubing, that's why so many camps are there. Camp Mystic had over 753 girls at the time; but still over 20 missing.
     
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    So I saw on Gab that some of the missing kids and an administrator from the camp had been found but not seen this confirmed anywhere else - hope that it is true . Anyone hear anything on this ?
    Prayers for all in the path of this horrifying flood .
     
    I'm surprised with a forecast of up to 8" areas weren't evacuated along the rivers?

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    So I saw on Gab that some of the missing kids and an administrator from the camp had been found but not seen this confirmed anywhere else - hope that it is true . Anyone hear anything on this ?
    Prayers for all in the path of this horrifying flood .
    Just checked - still missing. They added another death, one guy died breaking glass for his family to escape that cut an artery in his arm and no one knew tourniquet techniques.
     
    I posted some images earlier and wil post some more from our drive around yesterday. I’m in the local Ham club here, and monitoring the effort. Pretty sudden, and caught many inside their campers along the river’s edge. 14 Rv’s washed away in one park alone. The first two Images are after and before, same spot.The entire park was all assembled for a huge concert and fireworks show. The Entire park venue was scrubbed by the waters, not a single fixture remaining, and the stage was pushed and mangled downstream into the trees. Some cypresses were de-barked as much as 15 ft above current level of water at the time we took the photos, so it had gone down already by 0930.
    Our radio Shack is pretty close to the river, so we didn’t staff it during the high water period, as egress from the area, is iffy. Google maps, on satellite view gives you an idea of where things are. Flat Rock. Park was totally under water, all of the lower part of. Shriner Park was covered, The hwy 16 bridge which is about 50 ft, high, had water up to 4 ft from the bridge bottom. Fernando Lemos bridge was under water, and the veteran Loop bridge was about 4 ft from the water. The concert stage was. Crumpled like a beer can, and pushed into the trees downstream.
    And the kids? Unknown. Campers? Unknown. Entire families suddenly gone. People in cars who tried to escape, trapped and screaming as they floated downstream. The kid in the tree, went over 15 miles, and tumbled over 5 dams.The hydraulics at the dams were like a rock tumbler, churning logs and tires, and debris over and over.
     

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    So I saw on Gab that some of the missing kids and an administrator from the camp had been found but not seen this confirmed anywhere else - hope that it is true . Anyone hear anything on this ?
    Two girls and and an administrator were found deceased this morning bringing total dead to 27. Still 20+ missing.
     
    I posted some images earlier and wil post some more from our drive around yesterday. I’m in the local Ham club here, and monitoring the effort. Pretty sudden, and caught many inside their campers along the river’s edge. 14 Rv’s washed away in one park alone. The first two Images are after and before, same spot.The entire park was all assembled for a huge concert and fireworks show. The Entire park venue was scrubbed by the waters, not a single fixture remaining, and the stage was pushed and mangled downstream into the trees. Some cypresses were de-barked as much as 15 ft above current level of water at the time we took the photos, so it had gone down already by 0930.
    Our radio Shack is pretty close to the river, so we didn’t staff it during the high water period, as egress from the area, is iffy. Google maps, on satellite view gives you an idea of where things are. Flat Rock. Park was totally under water, all of the lower part of. Shriner Park was covered, The hwy 16 bridge which is about 50 ft, high, had water up to 4 ft from the bridge bottom. Fernando Lemos bridge was under water, and the veteran Loop bridge was about 4 ft from the water. The concert stage was. Crumpled like a beer can, and pushed into the trees downstream.
    And the kids? Unknown. Campers? Unknown. Entire families suddenly gone. People in cars who tried to escape, trapped and screaming as they floated downstream. The kid in the tree, went over 15 miles, and tumbled over 5 dams.The hydraulics at the dams were like a rock tumbler, churning logs and tires, and debris over and over.
    I read about the one in the tree. What a story for the grandchildren.
     
    The wife and I just bought an RV as part of retiring last year.

    A number of RV parks were hit. I think the total number is hovering around 50ish RVs washed away. *New fear unlocked*.

    It seems like the only correct answer is not to have been there...but the forecast was for 4" and they got 12" - 15"

    The dots on the river level graphs are 15 minute intervals. The Kerrville graph over ranged in 15 minutes.

    I'm trying to wrap my mind around this. There is a guy that awoke to water in his RV. How would I respond to water in by bed a 3:30 in the morning? Two foot of water in my RV means that pickup is already out of commission. Some trailers were undoubtedly swept away before the occupants knew anything was happening.

    I consider myself fairly well prepared and try to be aware of the surroundings, but I don't pop awake like I did as a youngster. I take note of building exit paths, crowds, and choke points...I've never thought about escape paths to higher ground, in the dark.
     

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    The wife and I just bought an RV as part of retiring last year.

    A number of RV parks were hit. I think the total number is hovering around 50ish RVs washed away. *New fear unlocked*.

    It seems like the only correct answer is not to have been there...but the forecast was for 4" and they got 12" - 15"

    The dots on the river level graphs are 15 minute intervals. The Kerrville graph over ranged in 15 minutes.

    I'm trying to wrap my mind around this. There is a guy that awoke to water in his RV. How would I respond to water in by bed a 3:30 in the morning? Two foot of water in my RV means that pickup is already out of commission. Some trailers were undoubtedly swept away before the occupants knew anything was happening.

    I consider myself fairly well prepared and try to be aware of the surroundings, but I don't pop awake like I did as a youngster. I take note of building exit paths, crowds, and choke points...I've never thought about escape paths to higher ground, in the dark.

    Yah, few folks probably consider a flood risk in nice weather. Many folks enjoy camping near water, ourselves included. ...So things to be future mindful of: local high ground, up river weather forecasts etc.
     
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    This is heartbreaking, especially while still dealing with the fallout of Helene in Western North Carolina. Prayers sent.

    What I considered the result of "due diligence" in picking my previous campsites near water was really just being lucky. Yes, I stayed well over the highest visible water line but I never studied the map to assess the entire watershed.

    When mountaineering in the winter you have to ask yourself where all the snow will end up when it goes downhill in an avalanche and then spend as little time as possible in these areas. We need to think in a similar way about heavy, unexpected rainfall.

    The latent threat to Kerrville is obvious on the topo map - once you know what to look for.
    1751745242112.png

    There are roughly 250 square miles of land draining into one relatively small river. Every drop that is not absorbed by the ground will at some point pass the red marker that google assigned to the flooding.

    Let's just assume that after ground saturation only 1/8 inch is running off into the tributaries. That is still over 5 Trillion Gallons through a choke point constrained on both shores by rising slope.

    A prudent person would make camp in such a situation only with a clear evacuation plan that is triggered by certain conditions like the percentage of the area inundated by rain (i.e the size of the cell), the amount of precipitation (represented by the color of the cell) and the duration of continuous rain.
     
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    The wife and I just bought an RV as part of retiring last year.

    A number of RV parks were hit. I think the total number is hovering around 50ish RVs washed away. *New fear unlocked*.

    It seems like the only correct answer is not to have been there...but the forecast was for 4" and they got 12" - 15"

    The dots on the river level graphs are 15 minute intervals. The Kerrville graph over ranged in 15 minutes.

    I'm trying to wrap my mind around this. There is a guy that awoke to water in his RV. How would I respond to water in by bed a 3:30 in the morning? Two foot of water in my RV means that pickup is already out of commission. Some trailers were undoubtedly swept away before the occupants knew anything was happening.

    I consider myself fairly well prepared and try to be aware of the surroundings, but I don't pop awake like I did as a youngster. I take note of building exit paths, crowds, and choke points...I've never thought about escape paths to higher ground, in the dark.

    Our 'little' flood last year went right through an RV park/campground. Fortunately no injuries or deaths as 'high ground' could be reached in minutes. But the campground is along a tiny little stream called "Gold Brook" that goes across my farm about a mile up stream. When it lets go, it's bad... really bad. About 24 RV's in the park were swamped and while not underwater.... they had water washing through them. All the 'campers' with their tents and bicycles had their gear swept downstream. It all catches in a wier about a half mile downstream where an old mill used to run. Fortunately this storm came through at about 5 pm and everyone was 'up and about.' I watched the brook rise at the farm in less than 60 seconds. The road was washed out in 10 minutes. We are at the bottom of a hollow with mountains and ridges all around. When it pours in the funnel, the bottomland (which is my lower pasture) is full instantly.

    Flood insurance for RV's? No idea if such a thing exists.

    RV's next to lakes and streams are all great sounding in the brochures. And the odds of anything happening are truly a million to one! But there's several million RV's and 365 days in a year out there. So it's gonna happen to someone.

    Situational awareness... do some research and if there is a call for torrential rain, pack up and head for high ground!

    Again, hoping that some of the kids turn up ok. The odds are long. But maybe someone was looking out for them...

    Sirhr
     
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    As the water returns to lower levels, and is now nearly totally in the usual banks, many bodies are being found. The park emerged, and a lot of people were found there. That park is about a half hour drive from Ingram. Several dogs have been found, alive, no owners yet, but being cared for. I’ll post photos, A matched pair of English black labs, and a nice little yellow lab. A long horn swam downstream and got out onto the back. A 9 year old girl caught an air mattress, and rode it 8 miles until she could catch a tree. Rescued this morning.
    Usual rescue/recovery people are here, and the volunteers are pouring into the area.
    One precaution: Do not send money to all the Venmo and cash apps popping up. Most are unvetted. Check with Salvation Army or a branch of your Church.
     

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    Here is what the 'peaceful left' is posting about the tragedy and dead children in Texas...

    View attachment 8722593

    Well, they also have no qualms about killing babies, grandmothers and calling for genocide to save Gaia.

    Just remember this when they start crying about "Our Democracy" and "Fascists."

    Democrats = "HAHAHAHA DEAD REPUBLICAN CHILDREN THIS IS SO GREAT FUCK TRUMP ORANGEMANBAD!!!!"

    Republicans = "OMIGOD OUR NATIONAL DEBT MY CONSERVATISM FEELS BETRAYED SMALL GOVERNMENT STUFF"
     
    Democrats = "HAHAHAHA DEAD REPUBLICAN CHILDREN THIS IS SO GREAT FUCK TRUMP ORANGEMANBAD!!!!" I NEED TO LOOT AND BURN AND KILL

    Republicans = "OMIGOD OUR NATIONAL DEBT MY CONSERVATISM FEELS BETRAYED SMALL GOVERNMENT STUFF". I NEED TO POST ABOUT IT AND GRUMBLE AND SHOW UP AT WORK ON TIME SO I CAN FEED MY FAMILY AND PAY MY MORTGAGE.

    FIFY

    Oh and buy more ammo…

    Sirhr
     
    Democrats = "HAHAHAHA DEAD REPUBLICAN CHILDREN THIS IS SO GREAT FUCK TRUMP ORANGEMANBAD!!!!"

    Republicans = "OMIGOD OUR NATIONAL DEBT MY CONSERVATISM FEELS BETRAYED SMALL GOVERNMENT STUFF"
    That area is pretty purple/blue, half of everyone there or more is from California