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1 shot vs 3 shot OCW (finished load)

BigTex

Dr. Dickweed
Full Member
Minuteman
  • Jul 14, 2013
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    Gave it a try today, interesting results between the Berger and JLK VLD with h4350 and Lapua brass. They shoot the same in my 6.5x284, not so much here.

    I plan to do a full OCW tomorrow and see how they line up.
     

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    Pretty cool test .., just was about to compare 140 hyb to 140 JLK's also .., tag.
     
    Went with 42.5gr abd shot 2 5 shot groups. I adjusted up and left after the first group. Pulled one high in the second.

    Chrono data for the 10 rds

    Avg 2789fps
    ES 15fps
    SD 6.2

    7055071
     
    This is a 6.5CM correct? Where did you start seeing pressure?
     
    Yeah 6.5 creed. The 43.6gr and 43.8gr are starting to show ejector swipe. That's why I didnt go with the 43.4gr load.

    I like the velocity, but I have a 6.5x284 for that. I want this Proof barrel to last a while.
     

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    Yeah 6.5 creed. The 43.6gr and 43.8gr are starting to show ejector swipe. That's why I didnt go with the 43.4gr load.

    I like the velocity, but I have a 6.5x284 for that. I want this Proof barrel to last a while.
    I have an operating theory that sweet spots most often show up at 2% off or 2% + 0.2 grains off of where you see pressure, somewhere in that immediate area. I have seen it time and time again. I have been scouring every single load workup I can find on the internet to gather data on that. I've mentioned it in a couple of other posts on here lately.

    You started seeing ejector marks at 43.6 grains, but the edge of high pressure was probably at 43.5. You were using 0.2 grain increments so this just splits the difference.

    If you multiply 43.5 grains x .98 (2% off) you get 42.6 grains which is only 0.1 grain different from the load you chose. That is one more good data point for my theory. Thanks!
     
    I was just going back and looking at your test again. I was kind of amazed that the groups didn't move around more. Then I noticed you were shooting a Proof barrel. That thing sure doesn't move around much does it?
     
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    I have an operating theory that sweet spots most often show up at 2% off or 2% + 0.2 grains off of where you see pressure, somewhere in that immediate area. I have seen it time and time again. I have been scouring every single load workup I can find on the internet to gather data on that. I've mentioned it in a couple of other posts on here lately.

    You started seeing ejector marks at 43.6 grains, but the edge of high pressure was probably at 43.5. You were using 0.2 grain increments so this just splits the difference.

    If you multiply 43.5 grains x .98 (2% off) you get 42.6 grains which is only 0.1 grain different from the load you chose. That is one more good data point for my theory. Thanks!

    I have a load in Lapua brass for .308 and a 175 SMK. Pressure shows up at 43.5g of Varget. The load I choose was 42.4.
     
    Skookum:

    I find that theory pretty damn interesting.... especially since Super and Trav settled on loads in nearly the exact spot that your talking about. I haven’t worked my loads up to pressure (prolly should), but found my load right at 42.5. Might do another work up just to see where pressure is, and see where my load lines up with your theory.

    Question, how many loads have you been able to compare the theory to, and what’s the percentage of times that it’s turned out to be right?
     
    Oh, and if you wouldn’t mind explaining how y’all are running the skookum OCW.

    Are you initially shooting 1 round of each load looking for pressure, as well as trends (flat spots) in velocity, and then shooting for groups in the middle of the flat spots? Or at -2% of max?

    Thanks
     
    Skookum:

    I find that theory pretty damn interesting.... especially since Super and Trav settled on loads in nearly the exact spot that your talking about. I haven’t worked my loads up to pressure (prolly should), but found my load right at 42.5. Might do another work up just to see where pressure is, and see where my load lines up with your theory.

    Question, how many loads have you been able to compare the theory to, and what’s the percentage of times that it’s turned out to be right?
    Well, in my personal rifles I've done it with 30-06 with 175's and 190's. With 308 I've done it with 2 different 175's. In 300 Winmag I've done it with 208's and 210's. I haven't taken the time to do it with 223 yet, but that is next.

    On the internet, including stuff I've gleaned from here, I've found at least a couple of dozen instances going back to 2005 where there was both a good clear indicator of pressure and a clear winning load.

    The internet stuff is hard, because you are drawing inferences or trusting what others say. But I would say that if you do this in your own rifles, you have at least an 80% chance or better of being right.
     
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    Very cool. I’ll load up some rounds and see what happens. Pretty interested to see what the deal is.

    What’s your process for the OCW?
    Nothing about what I do is technically different than a standard OCW. I didn't re-invent the wheel.

    What I did was simply determine the mathematical center of each group and track that for height and angle to the POA. I purposely offset the group low and to the right quadrant so that any pattern that appears can be more easily seen.

    I fooled around with the single round per charge to see if the pattern would still be obvious. The results were interesting, but not 100% conclusive.
     
    Nothing about what I do is technically different than a standard OCW. I didn't re-invent the wheel.

    What I did was simply determine the mathematical center of each group and track that for height and angle to the POA. I purposely offset the group low and to the right quadrant so that any pattern that appears can be more easily seen.

    I fooled around with the single round per charge to see if the pattern would still be obvious. The results were interesting, but not 100% conclusive.

    So you're looking for a consistent POI across groups to find where the "node" is?
     
    So you're looking for a consistent POI across groups to find where the "node" is?
    Yes, which is in itself is nothing different than a standard OCW.

    But by using 0.2 grain increments and paying attention to not only how the groups rise and fall, but how they "clock" relative to the point of aim, you get more information and clearer information from doing what you do already. This is a little more obvious one, albeit with a single round per charge, but you get the idea:

    7050083
     
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    Looking at the OP's test:

    20190404_110631-jpg.7055043


    Notice the line is fairly flat, but even in this example you can see that 42.0 and 42.2 clock together, 42.4 - 43.0 clock together, but the group rises at 43.0.

    43.2 and 43.4 widen back out, and 43.6 and 43.8 narrow back up but are the same. The longest and most consistent area when considering BOTH height and angle is 42.4 - 42.8 grains. The OP ended up with 42.5 grains.
     
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    @Skookum what do you think of these ocw tests? Three different bullets from same 224 valkyrie. I know which charge weights I'm going to do seating depth tests with, just wanted to see if someone else saw the same thing as me.

    20190329_185125.jpg


    20190329_185324.jpg


    20190329_185057.jpg


    I'm pretty sure i know which load to pick on the 75's and 88's. Not so much on the 80's.
     
    @Skookum what do you think of these ocw tests? Three different bullets from same 224 valkyrie. I know which charge weights I'm going to do seating depth tests with, just wanted to see if someone else saw the same thing as me.

    View attachment 7055331

    View attachment 7055332

    View attachment 7055335

    I'm pretty sure i know which load to pick on the 75's and 88's. Not so much on the 80's.
    I would pick 27.2 with the 75's

    I'm going to guess that you are into over pressure with the 80's. Based on published pressure tested data, I would expect a node to show up somewhere around 26.2 grains. But choosing among those you have, I'd choose 26.5 grains.

    For the 88's I would choose 25.2 grains based both on the height and orientation from POA.

    I'm totally unfamiliar with this cartridge, so I'm just applying the principles I use for everything else. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
     
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    Book max on the 80's is 26.7. I didn't see pressure signs on any of the ocw loads. I used a pretty narrow range based on a "satterlee ladder" and based on loads my buddy had worked up with a barrel that is same length and chambered by the same person. Ocw is interesting. I've played around with it, but this will be the first time I've really done it. I'll do seating depth tests next time i get the chance. It's interesting to see the poi move around, then stabilize, then move some more. Thanks for the input.
     
    @Skookum
    Also, I'm assuming you like to see a horizontal string as opposed to a vertical string based on your recommendations? In your ocw experience, is a horizontal string a better predictor of a good final load, or a load that will tighten up better with seating depth testing?

    Sorry to hijack the thread, op. Guess i should have sent a dm or started a separate thread. Hopefully someone got something from my ocw too. Thanks for sharing your data.
     
    @Skookum
    Also, I'm assuming you like to see a horizontal string as opposed to a vertical string based on your recommendations? In your ocw experience, is a horizontal string a better predictor of a good final load, or a load that will tighten up better with seating depth testing?

    Sorry to hijack the thread, op. Guess i should have sent a dm or started a separate thread. Hopefully someone got something from my ocw too. Thanks for sharing your data.

    No problem, that's what the discussion board is for.

    Horizontal is most likely shooter error and/or wind especially at distance. The vertical dispersion typically speaks to the quality/consistency of the load.

    I stretched the 42.5gr load to 600yds today and shot a 0.409MOA tall X 0.482MOA wide 20 round group. Avg velocity 2795 ES 23 SD 6.8. I think I have my load. Now I need to get my kestrel trued up. It called for 11.3MOA elevation and I needed 11.75.
     
    I stretched the 42.5gr load to 600yds today and shot a 0.409MOA tall X 0.482MOA wide 20 round group. Avg velocity 2795 ES 23 SD 6.8. I think I have my load.
    That will work. (y)
     
    Horizontal is most likely shooter error...

    Very possible, haha. It's one problem i have with ocw. Unless you're very confident in your ability to shoot dot drills consistently, the data could be misleading. That's why i did a "satterlee" or chrono only ladder first, then an ocw to see how the two methods compared.
     
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    Skookum...... just to add to your theory. I looked back at my development and found pressure signs starting around 43.4 but it was slight. 43.6 was beginning to be noticeable and 43.8 was definite. I’m now playing with loads around 42.6 - 42.8 so that’s right in your sweet spot.
     
    Very possible, haha. It's one problem i have with ocw. Unless you're very confident in your ability to shoot dot drills consistently, the data could be misleading. That's why i did a "satterlee" or chrono only ladder first, then an ocw to see how the two methods compared.
    I do my OCW tests a little different than they were originally designed. I shoot each group without breaking position, then allow for cooling between groups. I opt not to do the "round robin" method. It has always worked for me. I've developed 28 loads for 19 different rifles/barrels since I started loading. I have always used the standard OCW targets. When I saw Skookum do them all on one line I thought it looked like a great idea. Much easier to read.

    The one shot method keeps you from looking at group size, but it also only gives you one chance to get it right. I think for the time being I'll keep doing my version of the OCW test but all on one horizontal line. Seems to work great.
     
    I am going to adopt @Skookum theory about the node being 2%below max pressure and see if that holds true. I'll have to go back through my books.
     
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    I'm very interested about the 2% theory. I've seen something about it in other places, so I'll keep an eye on it when I work a load this summer and report back.
     
    Something a lot of people overlook with the OCW is the scatter node. My sweet spot has always landed almost exactly 1.5% above it as predicted by the test. 1.5 below supposedly works as well but I am always trying to push them harder lol. Using that info gives you an extra indicator when things aren’t very clear. OPs scatter isn’t much of a scatter at 42.8 but it’s the most scattered. 1.5% from there lands at 43.44
    2FE2C8E5-BD21-4468-B269-B019B77DA111.jpeg
     
    Something a lot of people overlook with the OCW is the scatter node. My sweet spot has always landed almost exactly 1.5% above it as predicted by the test. 1.5 below supposedly works as well but I am always trying to push them harder lol. Using that info gives you an extra indicator when things aren’t very clear. OPs scatter isn’t much of a scatter at 42.8 but it’s the most scattered. 1.5% from there lands at 43.44
    View attachment 7055985
    What makes 42.8 a scatter node as opposed to say, 42.6 or 42.2?

    Changing the seating depth drastically changes both the size and shape of any group. I can only assume this observation, if true, would only apply to any single seating depth.

    It would logically follow then, if true, that the scatter and accuracy nodes would have to change uniformly relative to one another with other seating depths.
     
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    Seating depth testing at the same time as ocw testing? If I'm correct in this, please explain the theory and how you read the results. The fact that you were able to develop a load that is under half moa for twenty shots at 600 is intriguing. The fact that you did it in very few rounds is also impressive. I understand basic ocw and ladder testing. Just interested in how you mix seating depth and ocw. Thank you
     
    Seating depth testing at the same time as ocw testing? If I'm correct in this, please explain the theory and how you read the results. The fact that you were able to develop a load that is under half moa for twenty shots at 600 is intriguing. The fact that you did it in very few rounds is also impressive. I understand basic ocw and ladder testing. Just interested in how you mix seating depth and ocw. Thank you
    Not at the same time. Seating depths tested after the powder charge is found.
     
    What makes 42.8 a scatter node as opposed to say, 42.6 or 42.2?

    Changing the seating depth drastically changes both the size and shape of any group. I can only assume this observation, if true, would only apply to any single seating depth.

    It would logically follow then, if true, that the scatter and accuracy nodes would have to change uniformly relative to one another with other seating depths.
    For the scatter node I look for randomness. 42.2 and 42.6 are kind of lined up. When I look for scatter I look for randomness. I use 5 shot groups too which makes it a lot easier to find. 42.8 on his target is the largest group that has no pattern to it. You won’t always get a clear scatter, especially with 3 shot groups but it’s another indicator that you can look for.

    My scatter from Valkyrie testing yesterday. This is about as clear of a scatter as you can get.
    59DE5557-4FBD-4103-9D41-5621F971FF5F.jpeg



    The other bad charges were bad but not “scattered”
    E593FB0C-5199-4697-BE78-A3BF1B73AE67.jpeg



    This one is .2 away from being 1.5% above the scatter. It was the highest charge I loaded. I may have pulled that last one but my theory is that .2 more will clean it up.
    C244472F-7DF4-4BF8-AF43-8F7EEE3BD8B7.jpeg

    This was all just prelim testing with virgin brass but now I know a .5 range I can focus on with the once fired now.

    For the seating depth, my opinion is that you aren’t trying to time the bullet by changing the depth, you are simply adjusting how the bullet feeds into the lands. Every bullet, barrel, and chamber will work together differently so you need to fine tune it. But only after you find the right charge.

    You are timing the bullet and harmonics with the charge. When you fire a round a shockwave bounces back and forth across the barrel from muzzle to chamber. You are trying to select a charge that creates the correct “tone” in the rifle and makes the bullet leave the muzzle with as little disturbance as possible. Some of it may be timing but IMO it has more to do with the actual vibration/harmonics that the charge creates in the rifle. So IMO you aren’t just timing the bullet to leave the barrel at a certain time, you are changing the “tone” of the rifle by creating a different sized explosion in it.

    Think of a musical instrument that uses vibrations. Instruments that are in tune have all parts in harmony with very predictable waves that flow together. Out of tune instruments have unpredictable waves that bounce off of and fight each other. When you fire a round, different amounts of powder used will create a different frequency or “tone”. So I think of finding a charge weight as tuning the strings on a guitar. Adjusting seating depth is more like adjusting knobs on an amplifier to tweak the sound. That’s my opinion on the matter but I have no science to back it up lol.
     
    This is a recent seating depth test. This is all the exact same load in brass that has been meticulously weighed and prepared.

    7056239


    If I was using your system and had started with the 2.810" seating depth for the charge progression, then this winning load would never have been picked.
     
    This is a recent seating depth test. This is all the exact same load in brass that has been meticulously weighed and prepared.

    View attachment 7056239

    If I was using your system and had started with the 2.810" seating depth for the charge progression, then this winning load would never have been picked.
    I don't really have a method, it's the OCW method. What does the original charge weight test look like? What method did you use to come up with the charge?
     
    I’m not understanding how your starting OAL is any different that what I am doing. You have to start somewhere and it is always possible that the one you pick is not a good one and you need further testing. You said had you used “my” system and picked a 2.810 to start with you would have never found the magic load. Well you still would have been in the same boat had you picked that OAL to start with. What the heck does how I do things have to do with it?? It wouldn’t matter what system you were using. Had you started with 2.810 you could fill in the blank with any method and it would not change anything. How is what you did any less likely to not have you start with the wrong OAL? See what I mean? Picking 2.810 to start with was the danger, the method used is irrelevant in your scenario.
     
    I’m not understanding how your starting OAL is any different that what I am doing. You have to start somewhere and it is always possible that the one you pick is not a good one and you need further testing. You said had you used “my” system and picked a 2.810 to start with you would have never found the magic load. Well you still would have been in the same boat had you picked that OAL to start with. What the heck does how I do things have to do with it?? It wouldn’t matter what system you were using. Had you started with 2.810 you could fill in the blank with any method and it would not change anything. How is what you did any less likely to not have you start with the wrong OAL? See what I mean? Picking 2.810 to start with was the danger, the method used is irrelevant in your scenario.
    The order of operations is the key. If what you say is true, then the accuracy node being 1.5% from the scatter node would be a good way to confirm that you are in the right place once a winning OAL is chosen.

    However, since most people do seating depth tests AFTER the charge progression, then the 1.5% observation would be useless as an initial predictive tool for the final charge weight. Because, as I have mentioned, the OAL drastically changes individual group size and shape.

    The exception might be if the shooter had already pinned themselves to a specific OAL. For example... if they had already determined they were going to run .010" off the lands for instance.
     
    Seating depth testing at the same time as ocw testing? If I'm correct in this, please explain the theory and how you read the results. The fact that you were able to develop a load that is under half moa for twenty shots at 600 is intriguing. The fact that you did it in very few rounds is also impressive. I understand basic ocw and ladder testing. Just interested in how you mix seating depth and ocw. Thank you

    I didnt do a seating depth test, I ran the ocw at 0.010" jump and it shot so well, I dont think I can improve on it. If I were going to do a deptg test it would be the last step.

    That said I shoot Bergers at 10-20 thou in all of my other rifles. I have done seat depth tests with them before per Bergers instructions and found it a waste of time with my particular rifles. If the load is shooting in the .3s in consecutive 5 shot groups at 100 like this one was, I'm not gonna tweak anything about it.
     
    This came a long way since I last posted. I have always done seating depth testing as the last step. I was looking at the photos riding in the car and somehow saw a decimal point after the two in the velocities. My mind went on quite a tangent at that point. I couldn't figure out how in the hell that would work to adjust seating depth and charge at the same time. Now that I see that they are velocity readings it makes perfect sense. I feel pretty foolish.

    You have to admit, if someone figured out how to get it all done in less than 30 rounds every time, it would be a pretty sweet deal. I have spent that many rounds testing seating depth to get a load from .5-.6 down to .3.
     
    The order of operations is the key. If what you say is true, then the accuracy node being 1.5% from the scatter node would be a good way to confirm that you are in the right place once a winning OAL is chosen.

    However, since most people do seating depth tests AFTER the charge progression, then the 1.5% observation would be useless as an initial predictive tool for the final charge weight. Because, as I have mentioned, the OAL drastically changes individual group size and shape.

    The exception might be if the shooter had already pinned themselves to a specific OAL. For example... if they had already determined they were going to run .010" off the lands for instance.
    Still, you did charge weight first. What would have happened if you had chosen 8.210 as your OAL to do your initial 1 round charge weight test? How would that have turned out any differently than it would have if you were using an OCW as I do? It doesn’t make any sense that you are saying the way I do it would somehow be not as efficient as what you did because of OAL yet you still just picked a random OAL and went with it. There is no scientific way to guess at an OAL to begin a test. That’s it.
     
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    Maybe we are just talking past one another without understanding. I genuinely want to understand what you are saying and seeing. If you would, explain again please how you are defining the randomness you are seeing vs the lining up of the other charges.

    Are you looking at group size, or shape or orientation to the point of aim? Here is the OP's target:

    2fe2c8e5-bd21-4468-b269-b019b77da111-jpeg.7055985


    I see the pattern in the distance below the point of aim, and I see definite groupings in the angle from the point of aim. There are definite and recognizable patterns there. I can't see any discernible pattern in the size or shape of any of the groups.

    What am I not seeing?
     
    Maybe we are just talking past one another without understanding. I genuinely want to understand what you are saying and seeing. If you would, explain again please how you are defining the randomness you are seeing vs the lining up of the other charges.

    Are you looking at group size, or shape or orientation to the point of aim? Here is the OP's target:

    2fe2c8e5-bd21-4468-b269-b019b77da111-jpeg.7055985


    I see the pattern in the distance below the point of aim, and I see definite groupings in the angle from the point of aim. There are definite and recognizable patterns there. I can't see any discernible pattern in the size or shape of any of the groups.

    What am I not seeing?
    TO me scatter means absolutely random in relation to each other. The other two groups you cited are all lined up almost touching each other. That is not scattered. The one circled in red is as close to a scatter at it gets for that test. Hopefully that clears up that part.

    What I am not clear on, you stated that the OCW test would not have allowed you to find the load you did because if you had started your test at 8.210 OAL you would not have found it. I can’t understand how what you did protected you from starting at 8.210. Either way you picked a random OAL to start at so which test was used would be irrelevant. How would your method be any different if you had decided to start at 8.210? What step in your test protected you from that?
     
    What I am not clear on, you stated that the OCW test would not have allowed you to find the load you did because if you had started your test at 8.210 OAL you would not have found it. I can’t understand how what you did protected you from starting at 8.210. Either way you picked a random OAL to start at so which test was used would be irrelevant. How would your method be any different if you had decided to start at 8.210? What step in your test protected you from that?
    When I do an OCW test, I look at the pattern that the group centers produce. I completely ignore group size or shape. I ignore them because I know how drastically a small change in seating depth can change both size and shape. If I paid any attention at all to the group and I had chosen 2.810" as my starting OAL, then I never would have chosen that charge.

    The OAL I began the test with is completely irrelevant because it won't meaningfully change the position of the group center. I very well could have started with 2.810' or 2.815" either one, and I still would have arrived at that powder charge.

    If by chance, it so happened that the winning powder charge also grouped up small and round, then I could abbreviate the seating depth test to just .005" either side just to see the difference it would make.

    The link I gave you was to an experiment to see if any pattern or meaningful information could be gleaned with a single shot per charge. I think it can work, but the combination would have to be reasonably accurate from the beginning and there would have to be enough movement in the barrel to make it more obvious.

    For instance, the OP's test would have been next to impossible to do with a single shot per charge because his barrel didn't move around much at all.
     
    When I do an OCW test, I look at the pattern that the group centers produce. I completely ignore group size or shape. I ignore them because I know how drastically a small change in seating depth can change both size and shape. If I paid any attention at all to the group and I had chosen 2.810" as my starting OAL, then I never would have chosen that charge.

    The OAL I began the test with is completely irrelevant because it won't meaningfully change the position of the group center. I very well could have started with 2.810' or 2.815" either one, and I still would have arrived at that powder charge.

    If by chance, it so happened that the winning powder charge also grouped up small and round, then I could abbreviate the seating depth test to just .005" either side just to see the difference it would make.

    The link I gave you was to an experiment to see if any pattern or meaningful information could be gleaned with a single shot per charge. I think it can work, but the combination would have to be reasonably accurate from the beginning and there would have to be enough movement in the barrel to make it more obvious.

    For instance, the OP's test would have been next to impossible to do with a single shot per charge because his barrel didn't move around much at all.
    I am not using group size or shape to determine the winning charge. I am using size and shape to locate the scatter node and add another layer of data to consider, just as described in the OCW method. Still no rhyme or reason as to why the 1 shot test you did was somehow protected from a bad seating depth. Had you started at 2.810 the single shots you made would have moved. You can’t find a group center on one shot. The one shot is the center. As I said in my original post, the scatter node is just another indicator you can use to help line the data up. This was 100% true for the OPs test.


    This is why I am confused as to what you are disagreeing with. I am running OCW tests as described by its inventor and you are telling me that’s not good and I should use an OCW test.
     
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    Interesting read.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but it sounds like one of you is looking at the variance in groupings and the other is looking at the variance in the horizontal line that connects the centers of each group.

    Why shoot low and right and not on a grid?
     
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    Interesting read.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but it sounds like one of you is looking at the variance in groupings and the other is looking at the variance in the horizontal line that connects the centers of each group.
    I'm still not sure what Skook is saying.
    I am looking for charge weights that print similarly first POI-wise. Then I look for a scattered group. I use the scatter to confirm my assessment of the POI in the groups. Typically a good charge weight will land 1.5% above the scattered group. This has been true for pretty much every rifle I have loaded for. The thinking goes that the scattered group is the charge weight that has the bullet leaving the barrel when the shockwave is nearest the end of the barrel and it has the most movement. This is why there is no pattern at all to the scatter group. No bullets lined up, no double groups, etc... The shockwave is at the end of the barrel and sending bullets all over. The bullet is leaving at the end of the shockwave so it could go up, down, left, or right. If the bullet is leaving when the shockwave is on its way up or down the barrel there will be more of a pattern to where that group lands, even if it's a larger group than the scatter. Look at the OPs target. The group circled in red is the one with the least pattern to it. the other "bad" groups have holes that are somewhat lined up.
     
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    I get what both of you guys are saying and its apples and oranges going into the same fruit salad. They are complimentary.