Re: Ballistic calculators vs real range data?
Ballistics is a mature science, and solvers like JBM are implementing the science correctly. So if you fully understand how to use the program, and all your instruments are calibrated (chronograph, kestrel, etc) and you give the program accurate inputs, the output WILL be accurate.
There's another 'gotcha'...
Will you use the data properly? Meaning, do you understand how much your scope reticle <span style="font-style: italic">actually</span> moves each click? If you're assuming it moves 1/4 MOA per click and you haven't ever checked it, it's not fair to conclude that the program is giving you bad dope. It might be the scope that's not <span style="font-style: italic">applying</span> the right dope.
So to answer your question and to echo the answers above:
Yes the program is accurate, and
Yes it's common for shooters to 'observe' different trajectories than predicted because of imperfect application.
The more careful you are about your application and the more you know about ballistics, the closer your predicted and actual trajectory will be.
-Bryan
ETA:
Here's a great write up on: sources of ballistic program inaccuracies.
http://www.arcanamavens.com/LBSFiles/Shooting/Downloads/Programs/ It's required reading for anyone who wants to understand the use and limitations of ballistic programs.