Hey ... it's $200

rustyinbend

rustyinbend

GySgt USMC 1976-1992
Full Member
Minuteman
    • Dec 9, 2018
    3,377
    3,787
    Bend, Oregon
    #1
    Just curious why anybody would buy a suppressor when they'll all cost $200 less starting Jan-1.
    That's like paying a 20% premium just to get it a little sooner.
    I'm planning on buying a couple, but not until the new law kicks in.
    Easy for me to say ... given the status of my "Can Case" below.
    But hey ... $200 is $200 ... right?

    All the heavy-hitters at one point or another, have advertised that they'd "... pay the tax stamp fees ..." via a $200 discount. Hoping they've built that into their margins, and we can continue to find sales where there is (a) no NFA fee, and (b) a $200 sale price. Might not be all the time, but occasional on-sale cans after Jan-1 could be a real value.

    You can, after all, NEVER have enough suppressors. At least that's what I tell the jerk on the bench next to me shooting his 338-LM with a big muzzle break that literally blows my hat off my head on every shot.

    1755785559818.png
     
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    #3
    How backed up do you think the NFA system is going to be when everyone else with the same idea submits theirs after the tax falls off?

    If the portal crashes how long do you think it will take them to get it back up and running, or will they?

    Will they delay people’s applications just to be dicks because the tax got slashed?

    There’s plenty of reasons not to wait, including reduced inventory as mentioned. That problem can be circumvented by buying now and waiting to submit though.
     
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    #4
    Stuey said:
    The concern is availability of them after Jan 1. I have on order and will arrive at my FFL before Jan 1. The FFL will store it until Jan 2 when i will come in and fill out the paperwork and less $200 fee.
    Click to expand...
    It will be interesting to see if they're in short-supply after Jan-1. That's a good question. That said, now that it only takes a couple of days to get the NFA forms approved, wait-times aren't that big a deal anymore. A couple of months ago, I bought a SIG P322 and a DeadAir Mask (.22) at the same time. The suppressor came back approved while I waited, and the pistol took 3-days. I remember at the time saying to myself (a) that's great, and (b) that's weird. Most of the suppressors in my can-case took at least 8 months, some quite a bit more. Hoping those days are over forever.
     
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    #5
    redneckbmxer24 said:
    How backed up do you think the NFA system is going to be when everyone else with the same idea submits theirs after the tax falls off?

    If the portal crashes how long do you think it will take them to get it back up and running, or will they?

    Will they delay people’s applications just to be dicks because the tax got slashed?

    There’s plenty of reasons not to wait, including reduced inventory as mentioned. That problem can be circumvented by buying now and waiting to submit though.
    Click to expand...
    All good points. Need to ponder whether an early order makes sense.
    I'm (maybe irrationally) hoping to get $0 NFA fees, and a decent discount on my next can purchase.
     
    #8
    Redlion said:
    A $200 savings is not going to motivate the average Joe considering buying a first suppressor. Do you anticipate somewhat of a rush of current owners buying new suppressors simply by saving $200?
    Click to expand...
    Actually ... I kind of do anticipate that. We'll see. If Jan-1 passes, and availability is tight, and the discounts end ... I guess we'll know the answer.
     
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    #9
    redneckbmxer24 said:
    You’re not going to get a discount on the can when they all of a sudden cost $200 less to purchase and they’re flying off the shelves.
    Click to expand...
    I guess discounting in the future will be determined by that "... flying off the shelves ..." assumption. Some are saying "The $0 NFA will motivate those to buy", constraining availability and decreasing the likelihood of discounts. Others say "The $0 NFA won't motivate the average Joe". I guess time will tell. I'm in the center of all that perspective, waiting for Jan-1 to save a certain $200, and hoping for some post-Jan-1 discounts on a couple of cans I've got my eye on. Time will tell ...
     
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    #11
    Cascade Hemi said:
    Buy now and let it sit at the dealer until January 1st.
    Click to expand...
    I'll have to check with my LGS ... I'm not sure if they'll love that idea. It does hedge bets against availability issues, so it could make sense. For me ... I have plenty of cans to do everything I "need" to do, but there are a couple of new ones I'd love to try. So camping out for a Post-Jan-1 sale will probably be my strategy. Not saying it's a good one ... but it's mine.
     
    #12
    There’s gonna be a huge buying spree come next year in preparation for no tax. The holdouts always fell into two camps, the “Im not going through all that bullshit and waiting a year to get my can”, and the “I’m not paying $200 to the feds”. When the approval times dropped to a few days, that first group finally got in the game, and suppressors became very hard to find. When the tax goes away, the second group will jump in, and again stuff will be hard to find.

    Buying is slow now for sure, and distributor inventory is up and improving every day. For my customers, I've offered the option of buy now, submit in january. They take up little space so this is no trouble. Some have taken that deal already. I’m hopeful that the manufacturers are using this time to get ahead in preparation for a wave of buying in Jan.

    I dont think approval times will go up at all in jan. The ATF made the last giant improvement in approval times in the middle of the last buying spree.
     
    Last edited:
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    #13
    rustyinbend said:
    Just curious why anybody would buy a suppressor when they'll all cost $200 less starting Jan-1.
    That's like paying a 20% premium just to get it a little sooner.
    I'm planning on buying a couple, but not until the new law kicks in.
    Easy for me to say ... given the status of my "Can Case" below.
    But hey ... $200 is $200 ... right?

    All the heavy-hitters at one point or another, have advertised that they'd "... pay the tax stamp fees ..." via a $200 discount. Hoping they've built that into their margins, and we can continue to find sales where there is (a) no NFA fee, and (b) a $200 sale price. Might not be all the time, but occasional on-sale cans after Jan-1 could be a real value.

    You can, after all, NEVER have enough suppressors. At least that's what I tell the jerk on the bench next to me shooting his 338-LM with a big muzzle break that literally blows my hat off my head on every shot.

    View attachment 8751609
    Click to expand...
    At least that's what I tell the jerk on the bench next to me shooting his 338-LM with a big muzzle break that literally blows my hat off my head on every shot.

    LOL, that's cause we can't afford the TBAC ultra yet..
     
    #14
    Supersubes said:
    There’s gonna be a huge buying spree come next year in preparation for no tax. The holdouts always fell into two camps, the “Im not going through all they bullshit and waiting a year to get my can”, and the “I’m not paying $200 to the feds”. When the approval times dropped to a few days, that first group finally got in the game, and suppressors became very hard to find. When the tax goes away, the second group will jump in, and again stuff will be hard to find.

    Buying is slow now for sure, and distributor inventory is up and improving every day. For my customers, I've offered the option of buy now, submit in january. They take up little space so this is no trouble. Some have taken that deal already. I’m hopeful that the manufacturers are using this time to get ahead in preparation for a wave of buying in Jan.

    I dont think approval times will go up at all in jan. The ATF made the last giant improvement in approval times in the middle of the last buying spree.
    Click to expand...
    That's a really good assessment of the history, and current state.
     
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    #19
    frankxtc said:
    Everyone's situation is different.
    I'm not waiting for 1-1-2026.

    A: I am very old, can't purchase more time in this world, fun NOW or never.

    B: $200 is not what it used to be, that amount would feed our family for many months in the 50's, now $200 won't fill half a grocery cart. "OK, Boomer..."
    Click to expand...
    Old age ... an excellent argument for "Buy Now".
     
    #24
    I don't think it will matter as much as people think... Too many people come up with excuses to not admit they can't comfortably drop $600 on a suppressor. Saving $200 won't matter much, especially when we are already seeing cracks in the economy.

    Will there be people finally able to jump in and will use the savings to effectively pay for another can? Absolutely. I paid for 3 tax stamps last month and I discussed with my dealer that I could wait a few months and put the $600 towards another suppressor... but instead I shot 3 suppressors this last weekend.
     
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    #25
    SRPowah said:
    I don't think it will matter as much as people think... Too many people come up with excuses to not admit they are can't comfortably drop $600 on a suppressor. Saving $200 won't matter much, especially when we are already seeing cracks in the economy.

    Will there be people finally able to jump in and will use the savings to effectively pay for another can? Absolutely. I paid for 3 tax stamps last month and I discussed with my dealer that I could wait a few months and put the $600 towards another suppressor... but instead I shot 3 suppressors this last weekend.
    Click to expand...

    I personally think it's the additional paperwork and process of buying a suppressor that puts people off, not the additional $200.

    Silencershop does specials all the time where they will give you a "free" tax stamp with the purchase of certain suppressors, and I don't think that's caused a surge.
     
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    #26
    kthomas said:
    I personally think it's the additional paperwork and process of buying a suppressor that puts people off, not the additional $200.
    Click to expand...
    I told a lot of people how painless and braindead easy it is with the kiosk setups and it quickly turned into "I just can't afford it right now" followed by some handwaving about the $200 tax stamp. lol Thats why I think its straight up costs overall.

    Now if they get removed from the NFA and we see the price wars push cans into the ground, maybe...if they have jobs and want to stay married.
     
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    #28
    My prediction in this matter is that the people that are ordering now but transferring after Jan 1 will be in the best position.

    Why do I think this? Because I think come January 1 the courts will discover (and rule) that a federal gun registry is illegal under current statutory law.

    It will be kind of like the California Freedom Week but for NFA items.

    They can't do it yet because the law hasn't come into effect yet. Basically registration is being teed up to go away.

    Not even talking about the Constitutional part of it yet. Just straight up current Federal Law prohibits a gun registry, and now that it's not a taxation situation anymore that is what we have.

    Edit: And it will just take just one Federal Court to say no more registration and the Supreme Court to do nothing other than saying 'Sorry, docket is full'.

    If they put an injunction on registration in just one Circuit, the whole thing falls.
     
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    #29
    I don’t know if this will have much effect but - this being in the news showed a lot of “fair weather shooters” that suppressors aren’t limited to current or retired LEO. A surprising number of people have asked me recently about getting one.

    That being said, most of them still have a few barriers to entry. Their rifle muzzle isn’t threaded. The pencil barrel on their hunting rifle can’t be threaded. A new threaded barrel might cost more than they paid for the complete rifle/scope package. To most of those people these are serious barriers.
     
    #31
    same. I snagged my ocl infinity now and will let loose my tbac dominus Jan 1 to whoever wants it. I’ll pay the $200 now to get my can in 3 days
    vanrichten said:
    I'm less concerned about the wait times post Jan 1 as the supply of what I might want. I've gotten 5 I think since the bill was signed simply because what I wanted was in stock.
    Click to expand...
     
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    #37
    No cans worth buying are offering a free stamp or the free stamp is baked into the cost where you can get it $200 cheaper elsewhere. Mostly overpriced and unwanted shit that's been sitting around because no one wants it.

    When jan comes around and it's a 2 year wait you going to regret not spending $200 ( which is nothing) to have it now.

    If you want something buy it now. It's really that simple.
     
    #38
    DeathBeforeDismount said:
    No cans worth buying are offering a free stamp or the free stamp is baked into the cost where you can get it $200 cheaper elsewhere. Mostly overpriced and unwanted shit that's been sitting around because no one wants it.

    When jan comes around and it's a 2 year wait you going to regret not spending $200 ( which is nothing) to have it now.

    If you want something buy it now. It's really that simple.
    Click to expand...

    Sure there are. There are plenty of new cans out there with free stamps and at the same price you can buy them most places. Take a look at the Silencer Shop specials. Nothing is $200 more than you can find it somewhere else.
     
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    #39
    DeathBeforeDismount said:
    No cans worth buying are offering a free stamp or the free stamp is baked into the cost where you can get it $200 cheaper elsewhere. Mostly overpriced and unwanted shit that's been sitting around because no one wants it.

    When jan comes around and it's a 2 year wait you going to regret not spending $200 ( which is nothing) to have it now.

    If you want something buy it now. It's really that simple.
    Click to expand...

    Dead air nomax and nomad ti have the free stamps - I really like both and are ~1k

    The free stamps are usually only a bunch of b&t and stuff no one wants but I asssume the market went cold with everyone waiting until the new year.
     
    #42
    Not really anything in the overpriced muffler market that tickles my Jimmy enough to just waste 200 pieces of ass wipe. I mean, Covid lock down is still a pretty recent memory. But, I could use to form 4 another lower. But but, I already have enough to play AR lower musical chairs, or I could play “this is a brace, not a stock” for a while.

    If time is money, $200 isn’t very much. So, if you’re in a hurry, go for it. I’m not, b/c my bases are already covered.
     
    #43
    sled_mack said:
    I don’t know if this will have much effect but - this being in the news showed a lot of “fair weather shooters” that suppressors aren’t limited to current or retired LEO. A surprising number of people have asked me recently about getting one.

    That being said, most of them still have a few barriers to entry. Their rifle muzzle isn’t threaded. The pencil barrel on their hunting rifle can’t be threaded. A new threaded barrel might cost more than they paid for the complete rifle/scope package. To most of those people these are serious barriers.
    Click to expand...
    Last few times I went to the range I have spent a bit of time explaining the process of getting cans. Haven't been in a couple of months dealing with aftermath of having my leg broken by a minivan bumper while on my motorcycle.

    For some here I have been trying to tell that the too small barrel isn't too big of an issue if it's big enough for a 9/16-24 thread and can send it to Thunderbeast for their face mount CB brake. Essentially what they say is for 25-30 cal barrel od of 0.560 - 0.662, there's options. 6mm is OK on 1/2-28.

    Here's my Tikka lite. It was 0.616"
    20211010_124725.jpg

    20211010_124745.jpg
     
    #44
    I’m not waiting for the first of the year. No idea what it’s going to be like Jan 1 or 2, but when all those applications hit the atf at once it may just melt down lol. I do wonder what will happen with the used can market if the $200 transfer is wiped out. It would open up a plethora of options for the bargain basement shoppers
     
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    #46
    Rob01 said:
    Sure there are. There are plenty of new cans out there with free stamps and at the same price you can buy them most places. Take a look at the Silencer Shop specials. Nothing is $200 more than you can find it somewhere else.
    Click to expand...
    Like I said no cans worth buying. Show me a sythe, thunderbeast, maverick , omega 9k, or something we actually want to buy. Non desirable cans are just that. I'll take a ocl can with free stamp or another r9.

    A bunch of overpriced b&t cans ( berelli usually blowing them out) dead air and overpriced cat cans. Stuff that's not moving.
     
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    #47
    Have any of you noticed an increase of transfer fees from your LGS for suppressor.

    My LGS has firearm transfers for $25.
    Suppressor are at $175.

    I think this is a little steep, but that's why I'm asking.
     
    #49
    DeathBeforeDismount said:
    Like I said no cans worth buying. Show me a sythe, thunderbeast, maverick , omega 9k, or something we actually want to buy. Non desirable cans are just that. I'll take a ocl can with free stamp or another r9.

    A bunch of overpriced b&t cans ( berelli usually blowing them out) dead air and overpriced cat cans. Stuff that's not moving.
    Click to expand...
    Not sure who we is unless you got a mouse in your pocket lol The B&T cans work pretty good. I used a SRBS 762 on a bolt gun and semi auto. The Dead Air Nomad Ti XC is another good can. Both under a grand with a free stamp.

    Up to the end user what they want to buy and having the free stamps come up is a nice option. They did have a free stamp on the Sythe a while back. Not now though.
     
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