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Lack Of Raw Goods

Expert684

Expert684

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
    • Feb 22, 2013
    3,439
    9,015
    Lafayette, La
    Went to Vegas on business a few weeks back, it was NBAA the largest aviation trade show here in the states. No body went, attendance was poor. I’ve noticed supplies and parts are getting scarce from my vendors, nobody can tell me why. Something hit a nerve talking to one of our suppliers. He rewinds armatures on stater/generators. He said there is no copper that he can buy. Supplies might come around next year. So with that said, if you can buy bullets, reloading supplies or ammo, BUY IT!!
    Along with food and supplies, oil, WD40 anything you use every day. Right now we cannot get, grease, parts or adhesives at the shop.
    Good possibility next year will be way worse.
    Just thought I’d share.
     
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    Expert684 said:
    Went to Vegas on business a few weeks back, it was NBAA the largest aviation trade show here in the states. No body went, attendance was poor. I’ve noticed supplies and parts are getting scarce from my vendors, nobody can tell me why. Something hit a nerve talking to one of our suppliers. He rewinds armatures on stater/generators. He said there is no copper that he can buy. Supplies might come around next year. So with that said, if you can buy bullets, reloading supplies or ammo, BUY IT!!
    Along with food and supplies, oil, WD40 anything you use every day. Right now we cannot get, grease, parts or adhesives at the shop.
    Good possibility next year will be way worse.
    Just thought I’d share.
    Click to expand...
    Grab a cup of Joe, pull up an old ammo crate and join in our discussion... We saw the shortages coming back in July.

    Hobo

    www.snipershide.com

    The "Official Shortage Thread"......

    I did not see this one coming. Guess I best buy a few vintage milk cans.
    www.snipershide.com www.snipershide.com
     
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    Our manufacturing has hit a snag with raw materials. We have orders coming in and can't supply the products. We are asking customers to give us forecasting for the next two years and probably end up going back to them to ask for 2024 numbers. We are not even at max capacity at the factory, we can't even reach it because of the lack of materials. I was ask not to try and get new business as we cannot supply the current business we have. We are going to have some pissed off customers by the end of next year.
     
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    Shooter McGavin said:
    Our manufacturing has hit a snag with raw materials. We have orders coming in and can't supply the products. We are asking customers to give us forecasting for the next two years and probably end up going back to them to ask for 2024 numbers. We are not even at max capacity at the factory, we can't even reach it because of the lack of materials. I was ask not to try and get new business as we cannot supply the current business we have. We are going to have some pissed off customers by the end of next year.
    Click to expand...
    Us too, we'll just turn into a storage unit with no income! We are all screwed if something doesn't swing our way!
     
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    Electrician here.

    Wire prices are crazy. However, the normal sizes are still available. The odd sizes like you'd see in an armature are most likely out there, it's just paying what it's worth.

    Lots of shortages. We're starting to see our stuff get better, as supplies keep trickling in, and lots of places put off building.
     
    Look at the market since the crash of 2008 up through beginning of 2020. All those gains are evidence of an increasingly super tuned global economy. Now, shut it down at different times and in different degrees across the globe. Some areas are opening while others are closing. I'm curious if there are really any parallels in history? We weren't as interconnected in 1918. Time will fix this. Faith and patience are the answer. It's going to be a few years.
     
    My Vortex HD Fury 5000AB is now estimated to ship mid Fed.. This was from an original estimate of Aug 15, with several pushes along the way.
    Not sure what's going on.
     
    Hi,

    It is going to hit the scope market within the next 3-6 months.

    I just spoke with Leupold Operations manager a few weekends ago and he stated they are having a hard time getting aluminum, not purely because alloy but because the pre-Leupold processes done with the alloy before it ever arrives to them.

    And the machines needed for the "prearrival" processes are a long long ways out before they could even look at being able to handle inhouse.

    Sincerely,
    Theis
     
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    THEIS said:
    Hi,

    It is going to hit the scope market within the next 3-6 months.

    I just spoke with Leupold Operations manager a few weekends ago and he stated they are having a hard time getting aluminum, not purely because alloy but because the pre-Leupold processes done with the alloy before it ever arrives to them.

    And the machines needed for the "prearrival" processes are a long long ways out before they could even look at being able to handle inhouse.

    Sincerely,
    Theis
    Click to expand...
    It already has, I have a scope from another MFG going in for warranty, they are sending me a new one , but it won't be until next year. They told me no aluminum. :( May be we could figure a way to recycle beer cans into scopes?
     
    The local Napa isn't able to order Valvoline or Rotella oil, filters getting tough also.
     
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    Expert684 said:
    Went to Vegas on business a few weeks back, it was NBAA the largest aviation trade show here in the states. No body went, attendance was poor. I’ve noticed supplies and parts are getting scarce from my vendors, nobody can tell me why. Something hit a nerve talking to one of our suppliers. He rewinds armatures on stater/generators. He said there is no copper that he can buy. Supplies might come around next year. So with that said, if you can buy bullets, reloading supplies or ammo, BUY IT!!
    Along with food and supplies, oil, WD40 anything you use every day. Right now we cannot get, grease, parts or adhesives at the shop.
    Good possibility next year will be way worse.
    Just thought I’d share.
    Click to expand...

    On the grease/lubricant additive side we are having trouble getting a lot of raw materials. This is industry wide and production is slow everywhere. That is why you see a reduction in supply for finished greases/industrial lubricants. A lot of work is being done to find substitutes but RM replacement work is slow due to the fact we are changing the chemistry (not just dropping in).

    The same thing is happening in other industries as well.
     
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    Expert684 said:
    Along with food and supplies, oil, WD40 anything you use every day. Right now we cannot get, grease, parts or adhesives at the shop.
    Good possibility next year will be way worse.
    Just thought I’d share.
    Click to expand...
    Listening to a Beck video - he said his mechanic told him some got some extra air filters for the car...there going to be shortages there too soon...
     
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    Haven't heard anything on the auto-trickler 4 order either. Assuming that backordered forever.
     
    Expert684 said:
    It already has, I have a scope from another MFG going in for warranty, they are sending me a new one , but it won't be until next year. They told me no aluminum. :( May be we could figure a way to recycle beer cans into scopes?
    Click to expand...
    I'm doing my best to generate the recyclables...
     
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    Expert684 said:
    It already has, I have a scope from another MFG going in for warranty, they are sending me a new one , but it won't be until next year. They told me no aluminum. :( May be we could figure a way to recycle beer cans into scopes?
    Click to expand...
    You should see how much aluminum we scrap at work. There is definitely aluminum, just probably not in the right places...
     
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    stello1001 said:
    You should see how much aluminum we scrap at work. There is definitely aluminum, just probably not in the right places...
    Click to expand...
    Oh yeah, there's aluminum to be found, you just have to wait 26-30 weeks to get it from the mill. I've got PO's in place for the next 24 months. The bad thing is, neither my distributor or the mill can tell me how much it's going to increase in price. So, we pretty much gave them a blank check for future purchases :confused:
     
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    I couldn't find some aluminum round bar I needed anywhere in the country, just drops of the next size up. And it was cheaper than what's coming in of a smaller size because its an older run.

    Mills are now allocating what you get based on what percentage of volume you represented to them in the past. That means if you are the little guy you are screwed. Many small businesses are going to be in danger of going under because of the availability and cost of materials. And the fixed costs are still there, pulling on the bank reserves. This doesn't factor in the decrease in end-user demand that the increase in the price of the finished good could be bringing.

    I have customers that want to place POs but the material is 40 weeks out (still) with no price lock-in. I'm letting those go as I am not going to risk the price increase or the customer cancelling the PO and leaving me stuck with unicorn raw material that will never get used.
     
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    83130786-D7A0-4C49-8106-37A56C3313B9.png

    One of the issues with Aluminum and others is the price of scrape tanked. A buddies family owns the local scrape yard, last time I went the place had mountains of metal more than I had ever seen there and was empty of anyone dropping any thing off. Normally they were always busy and I was the only person there and had not realized the scrap market had completely crashed. they had laid people off and told me and after being in business for 40years were worried about staying open! They were holding on to material until prices went back up. I assume others were doing the same.

    Thats is one part of the supply chain issue.
     
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    We are seeing this everywhere. Product prices vs raw material prices.

    I live in an area where lots of folks have timber on their land, even small plots. The price of raw timber that you could realize stayed completely level while lumber prices skyrocketed. There is some messed up stuff happening in the supply chain that I don't completely understand.
     
    Is the end near….again?

    Just reruns

    But we’ll still depend on china for all sort of shit, and suck big govs dick and obey when they do awsome stuff like fire a bunch of workers we need.
     
    I am having to deal with this on a number of fronts but what we are seeing is not only a lower rate of production and delivery but a depletion of the inventory of most things. IOW, demand is still pulling at a higher rate than the replenishment rate can supply. Its now beginning to show itself at the producer level at a rate that has significant impacts, but we all are only getting the hints of it at the consumer level. If it keeps up we will see supplies crash quickly at all levels as the preferred goods go away and the second choice items go as well. It won’t be a slow decline because you will have a grouping of demand that was originally across multiple items fall into one, and it won’t be able to keep up either.

    I’m not talking about anything like panic purchases, just straight up demand vs supply. Basic economics.

    This isn’t coming. It’s happening.
     
    Last edited:
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    MK20 said:
    We are seeing this everywhere. Product prices vs raw material prices.

    I live in an area where lots of folks have timber on their land, even small plots. The price of raw timber that you could realize stayed completely level while lumber prices skyrocketed. There is some messed up stuff happening in the supply chain that I don't completely understand.
    Click to expand...
    I have over 200 acres of timber. You’re correct. Still not worth getting logged.
     
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    Scrap prices are rising, I've averaged $500 a load the last 4x I went, still have a few more loads of steel, before I get into the SS, copper/brass, aluminum...
     
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    lariat said:
    This is an example of the trickle down that I am seeing. Extrapolate in all the way back to each raw input. Consider what other products use it. Then consider how many other companies are not able to keep up. Its not just a goofy t-shirt thing, it is an important issue of GDP.

    Click to expand...
    I do industrial maintenance, a lot of cutting, welding, & grinding and I'm hell on the shirts, they're supposed to replace them. Last year before covid I turned in 5, about 5 months later they gave me back the same 5. I purposely wear them with my belly hanging out (I'm trying to start a trend)
     
    BAMAboy18 said:
    I do industrial maintenance, a lot of cutting, welding, & grinding and I'm hell on the shirts, they're supposed to replace them. Last year before covid I turned in 5, about 5 months later they gave me back the same 5. I purposely wear them with my belly hanging out (I'm trying to start a trend)
    Click to expand...
     
    Hi,

    So question.....

    IF aluminum is getting to the supply levels were are seeing it get then why did the Aluminum import permits just drop to their lowest of 2021?

    1636742718063.png


    The shortage is self inflicted............

    Sincerely,
    Theis
     
    Bullfrog08 said:
    This might be the year to hope you actually get coal in your stocking!
    Click to expand...

    Nah, cook them over natural wood, that way you get the good smoke flavor over all the fat and old meat

    Still might need some salt and spices to hedge the gap
     
    THEIS said:
    Hi,

    It is going to hit the scope market within the next 3-6 months.

    I just spoke with Leupold Operations manager a few weekends ago and he stated they are having a hard time getting aluminum, not purely because alloy but because the pre-Leupold processes done with the alloy before it ever arrives to them.

    And the machines needed for the "prearrival" processes are a long long ways out before they could even look at being able to handle inhouse.

    Sincerely,
    Theis
    Click to expand...
    Somewhat related, I use a dart gun to deliver medication to cattle, the darts are made of aluminum and one time use. there is a small charge kinda like a primer that applies the force to inject the medication once the dart hits the animal. The dart manufacturer has sent out a couple emails in the last few months stating that they are having problems getting the aluminum tube that they make the darts from and an availability issue to the end user is almost assured.
     
    GrantB said:
    Somewhat related, I use a dart gun to deliver medication to cattle, the darts are made of aluminum and one time use. there is a small charge kinda like a primer that applies the force to inject the medication once the dart hits the animal. The dart manufacturer has sent out a couple emails in the last few months stating that they are having problems getting the aluminum tube that they make the darts from and an availability issue to the end user is almost assured.
    Click to expand...

    Yup, anyone wanting to do builds might want to grab receivers, handguards and other things now.
     
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