Long Range - Hit Probability Analysis

[cheapmoa]

Assumptions:
1st Shot Only
Wind Call: Within 2 MPH
Wind Direction: Within 10 Degrees
Muzzle Velocity SD: 15 FPS
Range: Within 15 Yards
Barrel Length: 26"
Bullet: Highest BC that is over 2500 FPS
Rifle Precision: 1 MOA
Target Size: 12"
Target Range: 1200 Yards


#75
I have been working on a matrix to demonstrate where we can look at the effect of velocity on our HIT% and the corresponding RECOIL. +/- 3% but this should give you some real insight. The 90 VLD look very appealing for PRS style matches in a 22 Creedmoor or 22 Nosler for a gas gun and for the best of all worlds the 7mm because at low velocity it beats everything in Hit % with a manageable recoil and at high velocity it is a long range hammer.


5.56 - 90 VLD - 2500 - 11% - Recoil Energy of 6.42 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2600 - 13% - Recoil Energy of 6.70 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2700 - 14% - Recoil Energy of 6.98 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2800 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 7.26 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 2900 - 20% - Recoil Energy of 7.54 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3000 - 23% - Recoil Energy of 7.82 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3100 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 8.10 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3200 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 8.38 (ft.lbf)
5.56 - 90 VLD - 3300 - 33% - Recoil Energy of 8.64 (ft.lbf)

6 - 115 VLD - 2500 - 11% - Recoil Energy of 8.33 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2600 - 12% - Recoil Energy of 8.74 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2700 - 14% - Recoil Energy of 9.15 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2800 - 16% - Recoil Energy of 9.56 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 2900 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 9.97 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3000 - 22% - Recoil Energy of 10.38 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3100 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 10.79 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3200 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 11.20 (ft.lbf)
6 - 115 VLD - 3300 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 11.59 (ft.lbf)

6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2500 - 18% - Recoil Energy of 11.13 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2600 - 20% - Recoil Energy of 11.73 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2700 - 23% - Recoil Energy of 12.33 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2800 - 27% - Recoil Energy of 12.93 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 2900 - 31% - Recoil Energy of 13.53 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3000 - 35% - Recoil Energy of 14.13 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3100 - 38% - Recoil Energy of 14.73 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3200 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 15.33 (ft.lbf)
6.5 - 147 ELDM - 3300 - 49% - Recoil Energy of 15.99 (ft.lbf)

7 - 180 ELDM - 2500 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 14.45 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2600 - 31% - Recoil Energy of 15.30 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2700 - 34% - Recoil Energy of 16.15 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2800 - 38% - Recoil Energy of 17.00 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 2900 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 17.85 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3000 - 47% - Recoil Energy of 18.70 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3100 - 52% - Recoil Energy of 19.55 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3200 - 56% - Recoil Energy of 20.40 (ft.lbf)
7 - 180 ELDM - 3300 - 61% - Recoil Energy of 21.52 (ft.lbf)

7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2500 - 26% - Recoil Energy of 20.94 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2600 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 23.74 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2700 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 26.91 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2800 - 37% - Recoil Energy of 29.68 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 2900 - 42% - Recoil Energy of 32.57 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3000 - 44% - Recoil Energy of 35.81 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3100 - 49% - Recoil Energy of 38.97 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3200 - 55% - Recoil Energy of 41.58 (ft.lbf)
7.62 - 225 ELDM - 3300 - 59% - Recoil Energy of 45.10 (ft.lbf)

338 - 285 ELDM - 2500 - 28% - Recoil Energy of 42.86 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2600 - 30% - Recoil Energy of 45.16 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2700 - 32% - Recoil Energy of 47.46 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2800 - 37% - Recoil Energy of 49.76 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 2900 - 43% - Recoil Energy of 52.06 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3000 - 48% - Recoil Energy of 54.36 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3100 - 52% - Recoil Energy of 56.66 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3200 - 57% - Recoil Energy of 58.96 (ft.lbf)
338 - 285 ELDM - 3300 - 65% - Recoil Energy of 61.26 (ft.lbf)

 

[cheapmoa]

22-250 - 90 VLD - 3000 FPS - 23% HP

 

[cheapmoa]

243 WIN - 115 VLD - 3100 FPS - 23% Hit

243 WIN - 115 VLD - 3050 FPS - 16% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

6.5 CM - 147 ELDM - 2750 FPS - 31% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

284 WIN - 180 ELDM - 2750 FPS - 36% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

7mm SAUM - 180 ELDM - 2950 - 43% Hit

7mm SAUM - 162 ELDM - 3150 - 40% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

308 WIN - 208 ELDM - 2650 - 23% hit

 

[cheapmoa]

30 SAUM - 225 ELDM - 2850 - 38% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

338 LAPUA - 285 ELDM - 2850 - 41% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

I cant find anything that beats the 7MM SAUM in a short action. Thoughts?

 

[TimeWillTell]

I cant find anything that beats the 7MM SAUM in a short action. Thoughts?

Let's see the 6.5 saum stats. Curious how close they are. I don't personally have one but I've seen people state 147 eldm at 3150+.

 

[cheapmoa]

6.5 SAUM - 147 ELDM - 3150 - 44% Hit

6.5 SAUM - 147 ELDM - 3200 - 47%

 

[TimeWillTell]

6.5 SAUM - 147 ELDM - 3150 - 44% Hit
View attachment 6887229

So I guess that answers your question about anything better than the 7 saum. Granted, essentially a wash.

What program are you using for the analysis?

 

[cheapmoa]

So I guess that answers your question about anything better than the 7 saum. Granted, essentially a wash.

Yeah. Those are close depending on the actual velocity of each. I am searching but that looks about it for a short action. The 284 WIN is not a magnum but really holds it's own.

 

[TimeWillTell]

Basically this told me what I suspected/knew: a short mag with 7 or 6.5 is a clear winner in percentages. So between those two it's just a matter of your intended goal. (Let's avoid a 6.5 vs 7 saum argument thread though I'm sure one exists somewhere)

 

[SilentStalkr]

Can I get some stats in a 6 Creedmoor and a .243 both running 105 grain hybrids?

 

[TimeWillTell]

What program are you running these Sims on? Ultimately though I think your parameters need some adjustments. Wind call within 1 is super tough. And a SD of 15 is pretty high for hand loads, and target range within 25 yards is pretty poor with range finder capabilities.

The wind call change alone may change things significantly, probably in favor of the 7 mm.

 

[cheapmoa]

Can I get some stats in a 6 Creedmoor and a .243 both running 105 grain hybrids?

What velocity are you running?

 

[SilentStalkr]

3300fps on the 6 Creedmoor and 3100 roughly on the .243

 

[cheapmoa]

Basically this told me what I suspected/knew: a short mag with 7 or 6.5 is a clear winner in percentages. So between those two it's just a matter of your intended goal. (Let's avoid a 6.5 vs 7 saum argument thread though I'm sure one exists somewhere)

Competitive shooter would probably choose the 6.5 for the recoil benefits but let's check some light 7mm bullets and see how much we lose on the Hit %. It would be nice to have a low recoil load and an ELR load in a 7mm SAUM.

 

[1J04]

Short Action Only? That's Racist.

Just fer shits-n-giggles can ya do a mild 7MM RemMag 168 Berger VLD Hunting BC 0.618 G1 BC @ 2900 fps. I mean really. Who wouldn't ask.

Curious.

 

[cheapmoa]

Short Action Only? That's Racist.

Just fer shits-n-giggles can ya do a mild 7MM RemMag 168 Berger VLD Hunting BC 0.618 G1 BC @ 2900 fps. I mean really. Who wouldn't ask.

Curious.

You are right. I edited the thread to be more inclusive. Don't turn me in or sue me.

 

[1J04]

You are right. I edited the thread to be more inclusive. Don't turn me in or sue me.

You're forgiven and praised for your new found diversity. But not until ua post the dope.

 

[cheapmoa]

7mm REM MAG - 168 VLD - 2900 - 26% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

243 WIN - 105 Hybrid - 3100 - 21% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

6 CM - 105 Hybrid - 3300 - 30% Hit

6CM - 108 ELDM - 3100 - 22% Hit

 

[SilentStalkr]

6 CM - 105 Hybrid - 3300 - 30% Hit
View attachment 6887265

Wow! That’s better than I thought!

 

[cheapmoa]

7mm RUM - 180 ELDM - 3100 - 54% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

300 RUM - 225 ELDM - 3000 - 46%

 

[1J04]

7mm REM MAG - 168 VLD - 2900 - 26% Hit
View attachment 6887262

26% ? 26! ? Huh uhhhh. That's tuff to swallow. But thx again for putting it up.

 

[Rthur]

6 CM - 105 Hybrid - 3300 - 30% Hit
View attachment 6887265

This would be a hot load in the 6 creed lol

R

 

[cheapmoa]

26% ? 26! ? Huh uhhhh. That's tuff to swallow. But thx again for putting it up.

You can get up to 31% by switching to the 180 ELDM by Hornady and running at 2750.

 

[cheapmoa]

6.5 CM - 140 ELDM - 2750 - 23%

 

[cheapmoa]

7mm REM MAG - 180 ELDM - 2950 - 46%

 

[1J04]

You can get up to 31% by switching to the 180 ELDM by Hornady and running at 2750.

Got some 180 Bergers I gotta try. Appreciate the data.

 

[cheapmoa]

What program are you running these Sims on? Ultimately though I think your parameters need some adjustments. Wind call within 1 is super tough. And a SD of 15 is pretty high for hand loads, and target range within 25 yards is pretty poor with range finder capabilities.

The wind call change alone may change things significantly, probably in favor of the 7 mm.

ColdBore by Patagonia Ballistics

These are all +/- 2MPH.

 

[Barneybdb]

6.5 CM - 140 ELDM - 2750 - 23%

CM or mm?

 

[cheapmoa]

7-08 - 180 ELDM - 2650 - 32% Hit

 

[cheapmoa]

6.5 CM - 140 ELDM - 2750 - 23%

CM or mm?

Creedmoor

 

[SilentStalkr]

This would be a hot load in the 6 creed lol

R

Indeed it is my man.

 

[cheapmoa]

Indeed it is my man.

lol. I put up a 3100 to compare.

 

[W54/XM-388]

6.5 CM - 140 ELDM - 2750 - 23%

CM or mm?

Creedmore

 

[Geno C.]

Alright... 28nosler 195 Berger's at 3100

 

[Rthur]

300 norma with 198 flatline bullet @ 3200.

R

 

[cheapmoa]

28 Nolser - 195 EOL - 3100 - 44% Hit

28 Nosler - 180 ELDM - 3150 - 52% Hit

 

[SilentStalkr]

Really a 28 Nosler That good huh?

 

[cheapmoa]

300 Norma - 198 Flatline - 3200 - 56% hit

 

[TimeWillTell]

So what I'm seeing for these mag cartridges is up to 1200 under the set parameters, velocity trumps a lower BC. That will change further out we go but I think a good trend to remember when looking at bullet choices.

 

[cheapmoa]

I'll do an velocity matrix so we can see the impact on Hit % with the same bullet. That will isolate it for us.

 

[THEIS]

344gr .375 projectile with G1 1.05 at 3800fps