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Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

J

jh26

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Nov 6, 2012
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IN
If my goal is to shoot 1.5 MOA @ 200 yards, how many repeatable groups need to be shot to confirm the consistency/accuracy? Lets use 10 3 shot groups. I also know alot of folks consider a 5 shot group to be the key. Usually shooting in some type of 5-10 mph winds. I have shot several 3 shot groups under 1.5, just started shooting 5 shot groups and only have 1 out of 5 under 1.5. On my 3 shot groups there is always one flyer, with 2 touching. 5 shot groups 3 very close or touching and 1 or 2 flyers. These are really driving me nuts!!! Boy would I be good if they were not there, but maybe that's just the way it goes with this type of rig?
Thanks in advance, this forum has taken me a long way, now I just dont want to make myself crazy chasing the impossible:)

DPMS LR 260, jp trigger, magpul stock, 8-32 Nikon Monarch scope.
43gr H4350, 123gr lapua scenar, RP brass, and BR2 primers MV 2742.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

1.5 moa or 1.5 inches at 200yds? They're two different things.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Sorry, 1.5 inches. And I am measuring outside to outside hole.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Keep in mind that average extreme spread (group size) will always increase as the number of shots increases. An "honest" 1MOA 3-shot group rifle will be closer to an "honest" 1.5MOA 5-shot group rifle. This doesn't have anything to do with the shooter or rifle (that's a whole 'nother conversation); it's just statistics. Extreme spread increases when the number of samples increases.

To test straight out accuracy, I usually shoot at least 4 5-shot groups. 3-shot groups are frustrating, because it tends to look like you have several really good groups and several really bad groups.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Are you saying that all 4 shot groups should be under 1.5 to confirm the consistency?
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Are you saying you're shooting 5 shot groups that are under 1.250 inches center to center at 200 yards? That seems very solid to me.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

This sort of depends on what your are actually trying to prove or accomplish. Shooting 10 3 shot groups really says very little about anything at all. One might make a fairly decent prediction about the average size of the next 10 3 shots groups, but that has little meaning in the scheme of things.

To be a group, you need at least 5 shots and preferably 10, if you want to have a meaningful sample size. If you just overlay the 10 3 shots groups, plotting all the shots as if you shot one group, that gives you a much better idea of the actual potential of the shooter/rifle/ammo combination. Now you have a 30 round average group size and distance to POA.

Of course, this often leads to depression, since the numbers are rarely as small as the shooter wants to see. So, we end up with shooting several 3 shot groups, ignore the offset from POA, throw out the 'called flyers' and practice self delusion by calling it a sub-MOA rifle, since we got several groups under 1 MOA. 'It's sub-MOA if I do my part'.

My general suggestion? If you want a small group, shoot once.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

I just started shooting 5 shot groups, instead of 3. And 1 out of 5 were under 1.5 @ 200. The other 4 ranged from 1.921-2.741 I guess I am trying to understand consistency. How many 1.5 groups need to be shot, out of a 10 shot group to call it consistent, and not luck, and then to conceed that me, the gun and load are just as good as it gets?
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

I think this kind of answers my question. For what its worth if I overlay darn near 30 3 shot rounds, then I am pretty clost to 1.5 @ 200 yards. Sounds like I need to get out and really shoot 10 5 shot groups. I will try this weekend if I get a chance and report back, thanks.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Yes, excellent thank you.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Cold bore shots are good checks I think as well.

Prove your rifle zero out at all ranges and then go out and see if you can put one round right where you want it at various distances, that really puts your accuracy in perspective.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Five-shot groups are acceptable indicators? I've been doing it wrong and carrying over the 10-round group tradition from a carbine forum which is promoted as a better averaging of performance. Is that excessive? I always have pulled a couple shots that ruin otherwise .5-.75moa groups.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

TRG. My consistency won't hold for 10 rounds in a row. I won't pretend to be a skilled marksman. I would like to think that if one can hold consistent groups at 3 or 5, then 10, 20, or 100 rounds wouldn't make a difference if the user can retain their fundamentals and concentration.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

Isn't the whole point to be able to put every shot where you want it every time?

I think if you're going say a rifle shoots 1moa or better it has to shoot every single shot at a single point of aim within that 1moa.

Thinking of it from a practical standpoint, if you had one shot you absolutely could not miss on how big of a margin of error could you afford? I look at shooting groups as a measuring tool with actually hitting things you're aiming at with consistency as the real purpose of the rifle.

I care how well a rifle shoots because I want to push it's boundaries and know whether misses are my fault or the rifle's
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

In my case, a functional TRG can't be blamed so deviations are operator error. I'm curious if the consistency of a 5-round group is good enough to demonstrate a user's ability or not, because for me, there seems to be an increased difficulty to keeping that concentration going into a 10-round group. In theory, if a user does their part, a 100-shot group should be the same size as a 5-round group but I'm not sure if anyone has actually tried this. Maybe its a psychological barrier of trying to keep a handful of rounds through a singular target? I don't seem to do too badly on dot drills.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

An idea to try is use a cardboard backer and tape whatever target on the same spot every time you do groups(tape the target on and trace a line at two corners, like top left, bottom right). The dot drill would be a good one for this and after say 5-10 times, measure the "group" at each dot and average them out. You could always track your "cold bore" as well on this.
 
Re: Real world 3 and 5 shot group expectations

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Cesiumsponge</div><div class="ubbcode-body">In my case, a functional TRG can't be blamed so deviations are operator error. I'm curious if the consistency of a 5-round group is good enough to demonstrate a user's ability or not, because for me, there seems to be an increased difficulty to keeping that concentration going into a 10-round group. In theory, if a user does their part, a 100-shot group should be the same size as a 5-round group but I'm not sure if anyone has actually tried this. Maybe its a psychological barrier of trying to keep a handful of rounds through a singular target? I don't seem to do too badly on dot drills. </div></div>

If you go all the way to 100 rounds, you're going to have heat, fouling, environmental changes, etc.

Depending on caliber and load, some rifles won't go 100 rounds without fouling enough to affect groups. This is especially true with varmint calibers with factory barrels.
 
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