Recession - 2022 / 2023

Alpine 338

Lumberjack
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 26, 2010
2,551
1,681
NW Colorado
Unfortunately, the gold option is more viable than most others suggested. I'm very short on storage space, so buying more guns and ammo isn't going to work, as I sold a bunch of stuff when I downsized homes. Didn't realize how much crap I owned until it was time to move it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NoDopes

Alpine 338

Lumberjack
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 26, 2010
2,551
1,681
NW Colorado
I actually bid today on a collectable vehicle, and got outbid quickly. It's unreal how much collectable vehicles are selling for.
 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.
I understand your dilemma. I have seen this same situation in the previous 3 or 4 recessions. In every case there have been folks who just sat on their nest egg and other's who grew impatient and spent it on other things. Real estate runs in a cycle.. You old guy's have seen it.
The world has changed. I am compiling myself a "New Rule Book". One of the first Rules I added was "You will never be able to buy anything at the pre-pandemic price". If you can accept that rule, continue to build your nest egg and be patient.... That property will present itself.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Alpine 338

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest

Alpine 338

Lumberjack
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 26, 2010
2,551
1,681
NW Colorado
For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

Still not seeing anything moving downward in my local, prices still high, and builder's are still booked out two to three years, with excavation and foundations sitting without any more work being done.

However, I'm seeing inventory starting to increase, not only homes, but vacant lot's.

One weird thing, a new listing popped up down the road for me. Half acre lot for $70K, and it's in a hole. Saw a lot of people pulling over and looking at it this last weekend.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bradu

fpgt72

Major Hide Member
Full Member
Minuteman
Mar 26, 2019
1,325
2,155
You can add dollar general, dollar tree and other low end retailers to that list.

I would say the above may be better indicators. I’m my area Walmart looks high end to dollar general.

🤷‍♂️

Dollar General is not cheap, it is handy. For me I can make a 30min one way trip to a "real" grocery store, or 10min to the $ general. But the prices at the $general are always....as in ALWAYS higher and in most cases smaller. If we need something right then we have few options.
 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
Still not seeing anything moving downward in my local, prices still high, and builder's are still booked out two to three years, with excavation and foundations sitting without any more work being done.

However, I'm seeing inventory starting to increase, not only homes, but vacant lot's.

One weird thing, a new listing popped up down the road for me. Half acre lot for $70K, and it's in a hole. Saw a lot of people pulling over and looking at it this last weekend.
We are in agreement. In my AO there is building going on around the "Bedroom Communities". People want to live in Big Sky Country but still must commute an hour (one way) to work in the Big City.
Hoarding vacant lot's is just a cheap way to hedge bet's on when the recession will end and the next boom will start. Buying a lot is a good move for a young couple renting while paying off debts and climbing the corporate ladder.
There are a lot of greedy people thinking their shit is worth a lot more than "market value". In the long run, the market decides value. The old saying of "It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it" holds true.
Movement of real estate is regional.
 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
Dollar General is not cheap, it is handy. For me I can make a 30min one way trip to a "real" grocery store, or 10min to the $ general. But the prices at the $general are always....as in ALWAYS higher and in most cases smaller. If we need something right then we have few options.
Similar to the Mega Cities where the grocery stores in the ghetto were burned and looted. People still live there and can go to the local market or travel away from the ghetto to shop at a Big Box grocery store.
We are reverting back to "Tribal Customs".
 

fpgt72

Major Hide Member
Full Member
Minuteman
Mar 26, 2019
1,325
2,155
Unfortunately, the gold option is more viable than most others suggested. I'm very short on storage space, so buying more guns and ammo isn't going to work, as I sold a bunch of stuff when I downsized homes. Didn't realize how much crap I owned until it was time to move it.

I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.
 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.
Yep, it all goes hand in hand with what a person's perception of the future looks like. No one has all of the bases covered.
 

Alpine 338

Lumberjack
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 26, 2010
2,551
1,681
NW Colorado
I read an article years ago, during the Yugoslavia break up about people trying to survive in all that mess. The article was about a guy that was able to refill disposable lighters and make them work again. When you get down to nothing fire is pretty high on the list of must haves. He and his family did not go hungry or want for fresh water, it was all on a barter system. One thing that had very little value was gold. And it kinda rings true, what is it good for if you are freezing and starving while being shelled in your basement.....not much. He was more interested in a chicken then gold.
Yes, totally agree. I read the article also, several times.

My biggest fear where I live is wildfire, outside of that, if we had an economic collapse, invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc, my next biggest fear is starving to death. Winter here lasts a long time, so living off the land can only go so far. Yes, I can trap or shoot the occasional Grouse, but outside of that it's slim pickens. I have some food stores, but then it goes back to how much room you have to store it, and in my case not much.

Outside of that, I'm pretty well set for fire, water, shelter, heat, etc.

The other thing that worries me, we all get older, more fragile. Let's say I break my leg in the middle of Winter, hunting will come to a standstill, and even simple tasks like going outside to get some logs for wood burner would be a daunting task.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton

fpgt72

Major Hide Member
Full Member
Minuteman
Mar 26, 2019
1,325
2,155
Yes, totally agree. I read the article also, several times.

My biggest fear where I live is wildfire, outside of that, if we had an economic collapse, invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc, my next biggest fear is starving to death. Winter here lasts a long time, so living off the land can only go so far. Yes, I can trap or shoot the occasional Grouse, but outside of that it's slim pickens. I have some food stores, but then it goes back to how much room you have to store it, and in my case not much.

Outside of that, I'm pretty well set for fire, water, shelter, heat, etc.

The other thing that worries me, we all get older, more fragile. Let's say I break my leg in the middle of Winter, hunting will come to a standstill, and even simple tasks like going outside to get some logs for wood burner would be a daunting task.

That is the thing I think about.....not as young as I once was and I don't move all that well. And then we get to the point I will flat die without specific meds.

Had lunch with an 80+yr old yesterday. He was on the Iowa in the 50's. Told him I would trade places with him in a minute. He said it is looking like he might have been born at the right time.
 

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
Leading indicators blah blah blah:

I guess that CEO was not reading the OP here on Feb 1, 2022.......
Read the CEO's bio's and you will see that Target got exactly what they bargained for... A man who has been a "Rolling Stone" for his entire working career.
Brian Cornell is 64 years old and has been "Socially Promoted" through out the leading corporations of America. A guy who figured out how to make more on the severance package than on a salary....
No wonder the mid terms went the way they did... One more dumb American who did not study history.

 
Last edited:

Zuul

Green Banana Samoan
Supporter
Full Member
Minuteman
Supporter+
Jan 18, 2014
295
340
Kona, Hawaii
There is definitely some rumbling in the tummy of the economy as the precursor of what’s to come. It may be a massive wet shit or just a stinky fart but something is brewing. Unemployment is the missing key to the house of cards, it’s starting but the question is will we see 2008 levels of layoffs.

I work at a hotel/resort, occupancy has been 100%+ since the rice rabies reopening and is forecasted to continue through the first quarter of 2023. $350 a night, airfare to Hawaii, and all the other vacation costs. I’m sure a majority of people put that shit on credit (the “fuck it, let’s have a good time” approach). If/when the pendulum swings the other way a lot of people are not going to be in a good way financially, it has the possibility to make 2008 look like a good time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest

Hobo Hilton

Private
Full Member
Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
6,939
6,176
71
Pacific Northwest
Well Jerome.... Time flies.

1668697074154.png

 

babyguppy

Major Hide Member
Full Member
Minuteman
Apr 17, 2020
2,399
5,176
Coming to America


POLITICS

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards​

Just need more migrants -

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth?​


Leaders all over the word seem to suggest that increasing welfare support migrants will increase productivity.
 

lariat

Old Salt
Full Member
Minuteman
Feb 11, 2018
3,590
7,588
POLITICS

Brits face sharpest fall in living standards​

Just need more migrants -

Should UK increase immigration to boost economic growth?​


Leaders all over the word seem to suggest that increasing welfare support migrants will increase productivity.
Which is just stupid. It will actually DECREASE product availability and increase consumption, which will further increase price. They won't work, they have no marketable skills and they will pull in welfare benefits and cause crime to increase.

During the aftermath of the black plague there was an economic boom - fewer people, more resources. You would think that an island nation would be able to figure this out. Unless something else is afoot, like getting rid of the Japhetites, which seems to be a global phenomena.
 

E. Bryant

STABILITRAK ACTIVE
Supporter
Full Member
Minuteman
Supporter+
  • Oct 25, 2010
    5,716
    7,627
    MI
    Which is just stupid. It will actually DECREASE product availability and increase consumption, which will further increase price. They won't work, they have no marketable skills and they will pull in welfare benefits and cause crime to increase.

    Yep. It'd be different if Britain actually had any industry that required labor. But I can't think of any product from the UK that I actually need, other than a .300WM AI AXMC bolt.
     

    Lightning8

    Gunny Sergeant
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Feb 10, 2019
    683
    910
    I actually bid today on a collectable vehicle, and got outbid quickly. It's unreal how much collectable vehicles are selling for.
    Do you watch Bring A Trailer (BAT)? It is insane watching collector car prices (and even what is considered a collector car).
     

    Alpine 338

    Lumberjack
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 26, 2010
    2,551
    1,681
    NW Colorado
    Do you watch Bring A Trailer (BAT)? It is insane watching collector car prices (and even what is considered a collector car).

    Yup, I watched this yesterday, I've always wanted an 80-series Land Cruiser, but it's just getting out of hand, $127,500 is crazy.


    No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed for sale on BaT Auctions - ending November 18 (Lot #91,082) | Bring a Trailer
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Hobo Hilton

    rlarsen462

    Casual Observer
    Full Member
    Minuteman
  • Sep 12, 2019
    313
    548
    Yup, I watched this yesterday, I've always wanted an 80-series Land Cruiser, but it's just getting out of hand, $127,500 is crazy.


    No Reserve: 1997 Toyota Land Cruiser VX FZJ80 5-Speed for sale on BaT Auctions - ending November 18 (Lot #91,082) | Bring a Trailer

    Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

    I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

    Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

    Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...
     

    Lightning8

    Gunny Sergeant
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Feb 10, 2019
    683
    910
    Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

    I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

    Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

    Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...
    1668878040681.png
     

    Alpine 338

    Lumberjack
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 26, 2010
    2,551
    1,681
    NW Colorado
    Just wait until they ban gas cars entirely...

    I've been selectively buying high HP manual transmission vehicles with cash when feasible...They will be worth a fortune.

    Having been into cars my entire life, even today I'm shocked by the stratospheric rise in the price of desirable manual transmission vehicles that are out of production (or even still in production but difficult to get) in relation to the same vehicle automatic or dual clutch version.

    Prime example, before I had the resources I had the opportunity to buy a used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K. Take a gander at what those command now...

    Almost wants me to go out and buy another Toyota Tacoma with manual transmission just as a backup/spare. Bought my 2021 new almost 18-months ago, and the same thing in the used market is now another $10-15K higher. New 2022 models are unobtainable, especially with a manual.
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Hobo Hilton

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    There have been many "job hoppers" who worked their way up to a good paying salary.
    What so very few never consider is their employer can lower their wage as needed. The big companies have a full staff of lawyers who write in the fine print in your employee hand book. Don't get too comfy in that cushy new job... Look at the shake ups in Disney and Twitter as the economy winds down.

    One more example... worldwide
     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    I don't think the market has bottomed, as a whole. Maybe a sector or two has bottomed. I'd look for the SPX to go down to 3600 (again).... May bounce along and form "W" bottom or build a base there and wait out the FED in 2023.
     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    No bottom in sight.
    _________
    “Headwinds to consumer strength have started to emerge. Strong incomes have thus far helped consumers, particularly lower-wage workers, cope with high inflation,” Hsu said in a statement. “However, their perceptions of weakening labor markets could make them pull back their spending in the future. Wealthier households are experiencing declining stock markets and home values, which would also produce drag on their willingness to spend.”
     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    Cutting back on office help....

    Delivery service DoorDash is laying off 1,250
    corporate workers as part of a continued cost-cutting effort, driven by tapering growth and overhiring, CEO Tony Xu said in a message to employees on Wednesday.
     

    rlarsen462

    Casual Observer
    Full Member
    Minuteman
  • Sep 12, 2019
    313
    548
    used gated 6 speed manual Ferrari F430 for about $135K
    that's a bit steeper than the 3 on the tree that I learned on.

    I didn't word it great but it was way out of my reach at the time at that price. Would buy it in a heartbeat now if it were still that price though.

    Also continuing the evidence of underground manual love, a manual 2000 Iduzo Rodeo single owner popped up the next town over the other day, wanted to see if my daughter wanted it as her first car (she's saved $3500 and that's what it was priced at) but needed to wait for her to get off work.

    Guy sold it to multiple (like 6) offers well over asking within hours.
     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    Funny......... Propaganda kept saying "We are not seeing a recession". So, 1,000 lay off's here and a 1,000 lay off's there and soon there will be a panic because "We are in a recession"..... That will come from the forward thinking analysis and career politicians who were wrong... You had plenty of warning.

    The visionary of the Hide - @Bigfatcock

     

    Bigfatcock

    Old Salt
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jan 12, 2019
    4,797
    12,410
    Funny......... Propaganda kept saying "We are not seeing a recession". So, 1,000 lay off's here and a 1,000 lay off's there and soon there will be a panic because "We are in a recession"..... That will come from the forward thinking analysis and career politicians who were wrong... You had plenty of warning.

    The visionary of the Hide - @Bigfatcock

    All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

    I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

    Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

    Interesting indeed.
     
    • Like
    Reactions: babyguppy

    Lightning8

    Gunny Sergeant
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Feb 10, 2019
    683
    910
    My broken record - the advances in AI/ML/"robots" is leading to the "white collar" layoffs - SKYNET is coming. Only good news is it is reducing jobs outsourced to India, etc. too. Your next call about your extended car warranty will have an AI accent mimicking an Indian national
     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

    I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

    Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

    Interesting indeed.
    I like Elon... He may be off base with this one but we will have to wait and see.

    Elon Musk thinks a recession is coming and worries the Federal Reserve’s attempts to bring down inflation could make it worse.
    In a tweet early Wednesday, the Tesla CEO and Twitter owner called on the Fed “to cut interest rates immediately” or risk “amplifying the probability of a severe recession.”

     

    Hobo Hilton

    Private
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Jun 4, 2011
    6,939
    6,176
    71
    Pacific Northwest
    Today:

    Inflation​


    “The pace of price increases slowed,” the Beige Book said, in response to weaker demand and easing supply-chain bottlenecks. Retailers in particular had to cut price in some cases to sell off an excess of goods.
    Prices also fell for some commodities such as lumber while rent and home prices grew more slowly.
    Further progress was likely to be slow, however. “Inflation was expected to hold steady or moderate further moving forward,” the survey said.
    The increase in U.S. inflation in the 12 months ended in October stood at 7.7%. That’s down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.



     

    Lightning8

    Gunny Sergeant
    Full Member
    Minuteman
    Feb 10, 2019
    683
    910
    All bullish analysts are wrong or lying.

    I will say that this recession is interesting. Seems almost targeted at only low income and low middle class people. Everyone I know are still making and spending money like crazy.

    Kind of makes sense though since all the pandemic spending did was bolster the pockets of traditional low income people.

    Interesting indeed.
    Seems like fast food restaurants etc. finally have some staffing - suspect that the "Covid" stimulus checks etc. have run out and people finally have to work
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Hobo Hilton