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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.

Land crashed in the 80s in Texas. I bought farmland for $500 an acre a few years after it was 4x that. Land prices go down when interest rates rise - usually 2-4 years later. Patience.
 

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report​


From Report - Showing this another way, there were 158.458 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.470 million in November 2022 an increase of just 12,000 over 8 months, a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.7 million!

So what's going on here?

The simple answer: as shocking as this may sound, there has been no change in the number of people actually employed in the past 8 months, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.

Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good and provide the Fed with ammo to keep rates high (thus forcing even more real layoffs, which unfortunately the BLS is incapable of capturing due to political reasons).
 
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Conditions are not "fitting" Jerome's Framework.....

As far as jobs reports go, November's wasn't exactly what the Federal Reserve was looking for.
A higher-than-expected payrolls number and a hot wage reading that was twice what Wall Street had forecast only add to the delicate tightrope walk the Fed has to navigate.


 
Some of the largest monthly job gains were in the leisure and hospitality sector, as well as health care. The hot jobs report also showed an unexpected spike in average hourly earnings, another knock against the Fed’s efforts to rein in inflation by cooling demand. Officials at the central bank have expressed concern about rising wages keeping inflation elevated.

So, America is creating more and more low paying jobs. A person can not afford to work at a minimum wage job. It is unheard of for a worker in leisure and hospitality sector to buy a house. The wage increases mentioned do not even keep up with inflation. For those on a fixed income, there is no way out. Using up savings and charging on credit cards shows no exit strategy from this disaster.

 
Another big nontraded real estate fund is limiting investor redemptions.
Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, a nontraded real estate investment trust, is curbing redemptions after investor withdrawal requests exceeded the REIT’s monthly limit in November.
Known as SREIT, the $14.6 billion REIT is chaired by Barry Sternlicht, the founder and CEO of Starwood Capital, a private investment firm focused on real estate with over $125 billion in assets under management. Starwood Capital manages the REIT. Sternlicht also is CEO of Starwood Property Trust (ticker: STWD ), a publicly traded real estate lending company.
SREIT is the second-largest nontraded REIT behind Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, which has about $69 billion of net assets. The Blackstone (ticker: BX ) vehicle, known as BREIT, moved to limit redemptions in November after elevated investor withdrawal requests exceeded its 5% quarterly limit.
 
In the filing, BCRED said that about 5% of the fund’s outstanding shares were tendered for redemption in the three months ending Nov. 30 and that BCRED “will be honoring 100% of this quarter’s shares tendered.” This implies withdrawal requests of about $1 billion in the period. BCRED said that it continued to see positive net flows in the quarter.
 
In the filing, BCRED said that about 5% of the fund’s outstanding shares were tendered for redemption in the three months ending Nov. 30 and that BCRED “will be honoring 100% of this quarter’s shares tendered.” This implies withdrawal requests of about $1 billion in the period. BCRED said that it continued to see positive net flows in the quarter.
someone cashing out when it was high? someone or some entity cashing out; then they can take that $$ and put it back in (or not)
Hard to tell, unless you are BCRED and you know who's redeeming the shares.
"continued to see positive net flows in the quarter."
edit -
real question, who decides who can redeem? will the big boys get to pull out when it's high, screwing the small guy that can't pull his $$ out? ,, hmmm
From comments on link
Get used to it. They’ll begin liquidating equities to meet future redemptions going forward just like ARKK did months ago, and they won’t be the only ones.
 
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Big Money is heading for the exits as the year winds down.
Shares of many of America’s largest banks are falling sharply this week after a period of outperformance that saw Goldman Sachs Group claw back practically all of its losses from earlier in the year.
Shares of Bank of America Inc. shares were down 5.5% Tuesday afternoon at $32.57, their lowest level since mid-October. Between Monday and Tuesday, shares of the North Carolina-based lender have fallen nearly 10%, leaving them on track for their worst weekly rout since June 2020.

 
The blame for this fiasco should be laid square on the shoulders of Jerome Powell.... Jerome caved in to political pressure while making some really unbelievable statements and moves. Never doubt that one man will send the economy of the world down the toilet in order to save his own ass.
Get ready, there will be a lot more finger pointing and knee jerk actions as we move into 2023. America will never climb out of this rabbit hole as long as the largest job growth is in the "Leisure and Hospitality" sector.
 
Big Business (in every sector) has filled their coffers using stock buy back, Government hand outs during the pandemic, schemes to fund Ukraine, back room Washington, DC deals and now are raising taxes / premiums....
"It's Just Business"
 
Big Business (in every sector) has filled their coffers using stock buy back, Government hand outs during the pandemic, schemes to fund Ukraine, back room Washington, DC deals and now are raising taxes / premiums....
"It's Just Business"
Being a motorcycle nut I am going to link a motorcycle video, but it talks about your comment.

Skip to roughly :30 in, the entire thing that is on topic is roughly a minute, but some might find the entire video interesting.

 
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Being a motorcycle nut I am going to link a motorcycle video, but it talks about your comment.

Skip to roughly :30 in, the entire thing that is on topic is roughly a minute, but some might find the entire video interesting.


Math isn't a strong point for 99% of the USA.
Companies love to use stock buy backs to
1) raise share price
2) raise EPS
3) hide a failing company
4) line mgmt and board of directors paycheck
 
Math isn't a strong point for 99% of the USA.
Companies love to use stock buy backs to
1) raise share price
2) raise EPS
3) hide a failing company
4) line mgmt and board of directors paycheck
you forgot fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value so buy backs do that. If a company has too much cash on hand then it's IRR isn't going to be as good. not all buybacks are some conspiracy to fk people and get rich. It also doesn't hide a failing company
 
you forgot fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value so buy backs do that. If a company has too much cash on hand then it's IRR isn't going to be as good. not all buybacks are some conspiracy to fk people and get rich. It also doesn't hide a failing company
LOL:ROFLMAO:
What is meant by the fiduciary duty?
Overview. When someone has a fiduciary duty to someone else, the person with the duty must act in a way that will benefit someone else, usually financially. The person who has a fiduciary duty is called the fiduciary, and the person to whom the duty is owed is called the principal or the beneficiary.

_________________
Fiduciary duty went the way of "The Handshake deal" and the "Petrodollar"........
Those stock buy backs are another 90% / 10 % deal.......... The stock holders, if they are lucky, may get 10 %...
 
Five years ago, even Cramer nailed this stock buy back disaster........ BBBY on a 5 year chart.
1670516312144.png

 
LOL:ROFLMAO:
What is meant by the fiduciary duty?
Overview. When someone has a fiduciary duty to someone else, the person with the duty must act in a way that will benefit someone else, usually financially. The person who has a fiduciary duty is called the fiduciary, and the person to whom the duty is owed is called the principal or the beneficiary.

_________________
Fiduciary duty went the way of "The Handshake deal" and the "Petrodollar"........
Those stock buy backs are another 90% / 10 % deal.......... The stock holders, if they are lucky, may get 10 %...
laugh all you want but a share buyback does exactly that, it's not even debatable. You guys can piss and moan all day about bankers but the reality is everything we touch we owe to wall street in one form or another.
 
I think what he is referring to is the interconnectedness of it all. The general condition of Wall Street is felt in the general economy and the savings of many which also impacts economic activity. IOW, the various financing activities on Wall Street directly impact the output, growth and jobs in the economy as few businesses can support growth without financing, at least not without an exceedingly long timeline and our standard of living would be negatively impacted without the exchanges and the services they offer, crooks notwithstanding.
 
Every dollar that the government spends must be paid for by the public, one way or another. There are two ways the government gets money from the public. One is honestly, through taxation, where it takes our money and then spends it. But the other way is dishonest. They just print money. They don’t tax us. They print money, and then they spend that into circulation. But when they do that, the price of everything we buy goes up. And so, instead of taking our money, they take our purchasing power. Every time you go to the supermarket and you’re paying a higher price, you’re paying a tax. Those higher prices are the cost of big government. And the more government spends, the higher prices are going to rise.”

 
you forgot fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value so buy backs do that. If a company has too much cash on hand then it's IRR isn't going to be as good. not all buybacks are some conspiracy to fk people and get rich. It also doesn't hide a failing company

If a company has no better plan for its capital than buying back its own shares, then I have no long-term interest in that company. Intel, Boeing, GM, Meta - fuck those companies.
 
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If a company has no better plan for its capital than buying back its own shares, then I have no long-term interest in that company. Intel, Boeing, GM, Meta - fuck those companies.
that's actually not how it works. Companies with high cash reserves become takeover targets, are not maximizing assets, have low returns on capital/assets, and more. Share buybacks benefit shareholders which is the main driver for investment.
 
Perhaps the best way to look at this buyback issue is like this: stocks are a form of debt, just one that doesn’t have a set rate. The buyer (the initial one at a minimum), wants a return for letting the company borrow his money, just like a bank would had a formal loan been involved. There are only a few ways a stockholder gets their payback: dividends or an increase in stock price. This means that the company leadership absolutely must take into consideration the stock price as it is a main payback methodology for them. Does this mean that all buybacks are above board? Nope. But some are used for fair reasons. I personally would argue that heavy cash reserves from ongoing activities means the company is handling it business well. After dividends I would be looking to see where a company goes with extra cash. Buybacks seem to me to be a short term thing rather than a wise long term strategy focused on real growth. But to each his own.
 
Perhaps the best way to look at this buyback issue is like this: stocks are a form of debt, just one that doesn’t have a set rate. The buyer (the initial one at a minimum), wants a return for letting the company borrow his money, just like a bank would had a formal loan been involved. There are only a few ways a stockholder gets their payback: dividends or an increase in stock price. This means that the company leadership absolutely must take into consideration the stock price as it is a main payback methodology for them. Does this mean that all buybacks are above board? Nope. But some are used for fair reasons. I personally would argue that heavy cash reserves from ongoing activities means the company is handling it business well. After dividends I would be looking to see where a company goes with extra cash. Buybacks seem to me to be a short term thing rather than a wise long term strategy focused on real growth. But to each his own.
Name a few examples of the companies you are referring to.
 
ExxonMobil will add $20 billion to its repurchase program to boost shareholder returns and increase annual dividends.
__________
How Do You Calculate Total Shareholder Return?
To calculate total shareholder return (TSR), first, subtract a stock's current price per share from the price originally paid for it. Then add the dollar amount of dividends received per share, along with any other special distributions or payouts (like from a stock buyback, for example). Divide this sum by the stock's purchase price per share. Multiply by 100 to arrive at a percentage figure for the TSR.

 
ExxonMobil will add $20 billion to its repurchase program to boost shareholder returns and increase annual dividends.
__________
How Do You Calculate Total Shareholder Return?
To calculate total shareholder return (TSR), first, subtract a stock's current price per share from the price originally paid for it. Then add the dollar amount of dividends received per share, along with any other special distributions or payouts (like from a stock buyback, for example). Divide this sum by the stock's purchase price per share. Multiply by 100 to arrive at a percentage figure for the TSR.

this is good for shareholders, bad for America as that cash could go into investing in projects to obtain more energy resources. FJB
 
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Some have written 2023 off....


Every dollar that the government spends must be paid for by the public, one way or another. There are two ways the government gets money from the public. One is honestly, through taxation, where it takes our money and then spends it. But the other way is dishonest. They just print money. They don’t tax us. They print money, and then they spend that into circulation. But when they do that, the price of everything we buy goes up. And so, instead of taking our money, they take our purchasing power. Every time you go to the supermarket and you’re paying a higher price, you’re paying a tax. Those higher prices are the cost of big government. And the more government spends, the higher prices are going to rise.”

Connect both of these posts and this article. It's going to be like a ton of bricks for those that have their nose stuck in Facebook and the other distractions.
 
this is good for shareholders, bad for America as that cash could go into investing in projects to obtain more energy resources. FJB
Correct. The company isn't beholden to America per se, they are responsible to the shareholders. I don't know that an oil company is the best example given what they are currently up against with respect to the operating environment they find themselves in. Which direction do they go for further R&D? I don't have the answer that can disprove this buyback as a bad move.
 
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that's actually not how it works. Companies with high cash reserves become takeover targets, are not maximizing assets, have low returns on capital/assets, and more. Share buybacks benefit shareholders which is the main driver for investment.

My point is not that companies should maintain large cash reserves (other than that required to weather a downtown). I want companies investing that capital in good ideas. If you're building innovative airplanes or cars or chips, you need to be spending money on development and physical capital.

Look at Intel - they spent about $100B on buybacks over the past decade, didn't invest appropriately in technology or fabs, and are now on the government teat in hopes that they don't get passed by the Chinese. Pathetic. Boeing went from one of the world's best engineering companies to a laughingstock, and spent something like $40B over the last decade in a failed attempt at juicing the share price. GM spent similar money to simply go sideways in share price since their bailout, and I guarantee Mary Barra would rather have that money in hand to invest in technology, assembly plants, and supply chain right now.

Apple gets a pass due to continued financial and operational excellence, but if they ever have to on-shore their entire supply chain, I promise they would rather have $100B instead of $50B in the bank.
 
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Jerome Powell is going to make the recovery "Long and Painful"............. No refunds or Vaseline.


Nor should there be any refunds. People got retarded with all the cheap money floating around, and poorly allocated that capital. Sucks to be them, I guess 🤷‍♂️
 
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Being a motorcycle nut I am going to link a motorcycle video, but it talks about your comment.

Skip to roughly :30 in, the entire thing that is on topic is roughly a minute, but some might find the entire video interesting.


Arnold Schwarzenegger said it best. Ryan, You're One Ugly Motherfucker!
 
Rick Rieder, a chief investment officer BlackRock, also expressed support for the Fed's move.
"In our view, today’s widely anticipated 50 basis point (bps) policy rate hike, a moderation in pace from the recent series of 75 bps hikes, provides a positive signal from the #FOMC that the Committee doesn’t want to overtighten and damage the #economy excessively," Rieder tweeted.
Rieder described the smaller interest rate hike as "a sensible move toward risk management for the #Fed."
"Whether this landing ends up feeling soft or hard is still uncertain, but moderating the pace of rate hikes today, alongside many other forms of #tightening, does appear to be a sensible move toward risk management for the #Fed," he tweeted.



 
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I remember Chode saying that the Fed has a toolbox full of things other than raising the rate. I guess they don't want to dig deeper into that box.
Jerome Powell is going to make the recovery "Long and Painful"............. No refunds or Vaseline.

Inflation is the devaluation of the dollar.
$31 plus trillion and still spending like a teenager with mom's credit card is what is causing inflation.
Raising interest rates will curb spending and cost jobs. It hurts the people and does nothing to curb deficit spending.
The government will vote themselves raises to keep up with the cost of living. They will vote for cost of living raises for welfare, military and other government employees. As will state governments. And the middle class taxpayers take it in the ass.