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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

I did too
I did a WTF for a few moments before realizing this article is from 2015.
I did not see that either. The CEO was talking about profits after 2021 and it seemed that he was leading into 2022 and not 2016...

 
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Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report​


From Report - Showing this another way, there were 158.458 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.470 million in November 2022 an increase of just 12,000 over 8 months, a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.7 million!

So what's going on here?

The simple answer: as shocking as this may sound, there has been no change in the number of people actually employed in the past 8 months, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.

Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good and provide the Fed with ammo to keep rates high (thus forcing even more real layoffs, which unfortunately the BLS is incapable of capturing due to political reasons).
the following ties into the above

e1mZtLyDna3a.jpeg
 
I'm gonna be really, really shocked if it turns out that a bunch of people were given car loans that they couldn't afford. Can't wait to watch the effect on the late-model used market, which could then rapidly cascade into a huge hit on new-car values.

LOL definitely.

One of my guys has a 965 dollar payment on an F250, another guy was spending 1200 a month for some sort of Ford SUV that his wife drives. If the rug gets pulled out it'll be apocalyptic.
 
I'm gonna be really, really shocked if it turns out that a bunch of people were given car loans that they couldn't afford. Can't wait to watch the effect on the late-model used market, which could then rapidly cascade into a huge hit on new-car values.
Yeppers and I'm going to be standing around, cash in hand.
 
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I'm thinking about Real Estate. The room temperature IQ population here (Arizona) is always overextended and upside down so there will be property deals not to mention pickup truck deals.
To those that study history.... This has happened 3 - 4 times during my life.... A big recession and then the fall out occurs..... Those with no debt and some cash always come out on top... History is repeating quicker than most realize.
 
Hmmm, I am not so sure this time. The crash we may be facing could be the trigger for the digital dollar. The Fed may only credit digital pennies for the paper dollar. It is possibly the way to erase the 32 trillion dollar debt.
To those that study history.... This has happened 3 - 4 times during my life.... A big recession and then the fall out occurs..... Those with no debt and some cash always come out on top... History is repeating quicker than most realize.
Just an angle that is not being considered.
 
Hmmm, I am not so sure this time. The crash we may be facing could be the trigger for the digital dollar. The Fed may only credit digital pennies for the paper dollar. It is possibly the way to erase the 32 trillion dollar debt.

Just an angle that is not being considered.
Here is a question for the group:
What will be the "trigger point" for your to shift to your Survival Mode ?

Had a discussion going with OldSalty2 about LeShawndra buying rib eyes with Government free money and me buying hamburger with my fixed income...
At a point the 32 trillion dollar debt means little compared to rib eyes or ground meat. Just one of many examples of "We the People" and their priorities shifting.

Open for discussion.
 
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Depends on what you think survival mode is.
Cutting down the trees at the end of the driveway and making funnels for anyone entering the property, type survival. Or
Being debt free with a preppers stock of consumables that are replaced when they are on sale. Type survival
Here is a question for the group:
What will be the "trigger point" for your to shift to your Survival Mode ?

Had a discussion going with OldSalty2 about LeShawndra buying rib eyes with Government free money and me buying hamburger with my fixed income...
At a point the 32 trillion dollar debt means little compared to rib eyes or ground meat. Just one of many examples of "We the People" and their priorities shifting.

Open for discussion.
 
Depends on what you think survival mode is.
Cutting down the trees at the end of the driveway and making funnels for anyone entering the property, type survival. Or
Being debt free with a preppers stock of consumables that are replaced when they are on sale. Type survival
It could be either situation... Or somewhere in between... Perhaps when a man accepts the fact that we can't vote ourselves out of this situation...
 
Jeff sessions "I recuse myself from all things Russia", Chuck shumer saying that the fauxbi has twenty ways to Sunday to get Trump and Mike Flynn should have been an eye opener for what was to come.
If those didn't trigger you then when the potato exclaimed that they have the best election scam ever should have. Especially after watching how they went after Trump and anyone associated with him.
It could be either situation... Or somewhere in between... Perhaps when a man accepts the fact that we can't vote ourselves out of this situation...
Mandated to be a lab rat should have been a closer for anyone on the fence.
 
Depends on what you think survival mode is.
Cutting down the trees at the end of the driveway and making funnels for anyone entering the property, type survival. Or
Being debt free with a preppers stock of consumables that are replaced when they are on sale. Type survival
I think a lot of people have already shifted to the 2nd one. No idea when you shift gear to the first one. The world's ability to kick the can down the road is impressive.
 
Slowly turning up the heat is a great plan.
I also don't know what the trigger is for going to the first plan. But not having a plan for when that time comes is a plan for failure.
The people that have not shifted to the 2nd one are the ones that will be begging for the government to be their savior. The size of that group was just exposed with the plandemic. Was it a litmus test?
I think a lot of people have already shifted to the 2nd one. No idea when you shift gear to the first one. The world's ability to kick the can down the road is impressive.
 
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Slowly turning up the heat is a great plan.
I also don't know what the trigger is for going to the first plan. But not having a plan for when that time comes is a plan for failure.
The people that have not shifted to the 2nd one are the ones that will be begging for the government to be their savior. The size of that group was just exposed with the plandemic. Was it a litmus test?
Anarchy is 3 meals away. aka Katrina, and the clusterfuk that the mayor and governor of LA caused.
 
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Unfortunate the markets will write off 2023, even before it arrives. Too much free money and a FED that acted to late and did too little.

 
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Fox Business News: "The average IRA balance was $101,900 in the third quarter of 2022, down 24.9% from the third quarter of 2021, according to the report. The average 401(k) balance also decreased to $97,200 in the third quarter, down 22.9% from the year before. Fidelity also noted that the average 403(b) account balance dropped to $87,400, down 21% from the previous year. "

Going to be hard to retire. "Who" talked all these companies into destroying the pensions so that people could invest their own money for retirement?
 
Fox Business News: "The average IRA balance was $101,900 in the third quarter of 2022, down 24.9% from the third quarter of 2021, according to the report. The average 401(k) balance also decreased to $97,200 in the third quarter, down 22.9% from the year before. Fidelity also noted that the average 403(b) account balance dropped to $87,400, down 21% from the previous year. "

Going to be hard to retire. "Who" talked all these companies into destroying the pensions so that people could invest their own money for retirement?
The result of "The Government" dabbling in the operations of private businesses.... A wake up call to the young people.
The rules will be changing as you move towards retirement.
 
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Fox Business News: "The average IRA balance was $101,900 in the third quarter of 2022, down 24.9% from the third quarter of 2021, according to the report. The average 401(k) balance also decreased to $97,200 in the third quarter, down 22.9% from the year before. Fidelity also noted that the average 403(b) account balance dropped to $87,400, down 21% from the previous year. "

Going to be hard to retire. "Who" talked all these companies into destroying the pensions so that people could invest their own money for retirement?
those numbers are pretty fuk'n accurate.
  • Keep pumping money into it, it'll come up. (say some)
  • Never throw good money after bad and expect a different outcome. (say others)
 
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Fox Business News: "The average IRA balance was $101,900 in the third quarter of 2022, down 24.9% from the third quarter of 2021, according to the report. The average 401(k) balance also decreased to $97,200 in the third quarter, down 22.9% from the year before. Fidelity also noted that the average 403(b) account balance dropped to $87,400, down 21% from the previous year. "

Going to be hard to retire. "Who" talked all these companies into destroying the pensions so that people could invest their own money for retirement?
I ran the numbers a year ago or so... I've already pumped WAY more money into SS than I will EVER get back out and that's considering ZERO interest in gains over my lifetime. The only people coming out ahead are people that didn't put much in.

Side note, my sister-in-law is disabled now, but they won't give her any SS because they say she waited too long to apply so her 'earnings' are "too old". They say she needs to wait until shes 62+. Fuck them.
P.S. Fuck all the illegal aliens getting welfare that didn't pay a dime into it.
 
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I ran the numbers a year ago or so... I've already pumped WAY more money into SS than I will EVER get back out and that's considering ZERO interest in gains over my lifetime. The only people coming out ahead are people that didn't put much in.

Side note, my sister-in-law is disabled now, but they won't give her any SS because they say she waited too long to apply so her 'earnings' are "too old". They say she needs to wait until shes 62+. Fuck them.
P.S. Fuck all the illegal aliens getting welfare that didn't pay a dime into it.
In fact, “You’ll own nothing. And you’ll be happy” actually originates, verbatim, from the WEF’s “8 Predictions for the World in 2030,” which was published in 2016 and is still on the WEF Agenda blog at the time of this publication.
 
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LOL... I guess it depends on your "perspective" as to how 2023 looks.

 
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With 10 million illegals here, already..... Jerome Powell is saying we need more. Time to send Jerome for a "psych eval"............
Stop the flow of free money.
____________________
Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell showed last week that he’s thinking about how recent lower immigration has factored into the ongoing U.S. labor shortage, but he said it’s not appropriate for the Fed to call for increased legal immigration to help alleviate the shortage.
Could his remarks, careful as they were, somehow move the needle on immigration policy?
His comments came as one new bipartisan proposal for immigration reform flopped in Congress, and some analysts say they aren’t optimistic about progress on immigration next year in a divided Washington. Still, others see Powell’s remarks having a small effect.
“Our labor force should be three and a half million more than it is,” the Fed chairman said in response to a question from MarketWatch during his Dec. 14 news conference, which followed the central bank’s latest interest-rate hike as it tries to tame inflation.

 
With 10 million illegals here, already..... Jerome Powell is saying we need more. Time to send Jerome for a "psych eval"............
Stop the flow of free money.
____________________
Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell showed last week that he’s thinking about how recent lower immigration has factored into the ongoing U.S. labor shortage, but he said it’s not appropriate for the Fed to call for increased legal immigration to help alleviate the shortage.
Could his remarks, careful as they were, somehow move the needle on immigration policy?
His comments came as one new bipartisan proposal for immigration reform flopped in Congress, and some analysts say they aren’t optimistic about progress on immigration next year in a divided Washington. Still, others see Powell’s remarks having a small effect.
“Our labor force should be three and a half million more than it is,” the Fed chairman said in response to a question from MarketWatch during his Dec. 14 news conference, which followed the central bank’s latest interest-rate hike as it tries to tame inflation.

Powell is raising rates, which is causing layoffs. thus a reduced workforce and a cooler economy where not as many are needed. Cant have it both ways.
 
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Powell is raising rates, which is causing layoffs. thus a reduced workforce and a cooler economy where not as many are needed. Cant have it both ways.
That why I label Powell as having been "Politicized"...... He is talking out of both sides of his mouth..... He should run for President.... Just one more career politician that did not have to run for election.....
I'm not a fan of Jerome..... There are other's on the FED Reserve Board who could do a better job... They have not been "bought and paid for".
 
That why I label Powell as having been "Politicized"...... He is talking out of both sides of his mouth..... He should run for President.... Just one more career politician that did not have to run for election.....
I'm not a fan of Jerome..... There are other's on the FED Reserve Board who could do a better job... They have not been "bought and paid for".
FFS
That is funny.

R
 
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That why I label Powell as having been "Politicized"...... He is talking out of both sides of his mouth..... He should run for President.... Just one more career politician that did not have to run for election.....
I'm not a fan of Jerome..... There are other's on the FED Reserve Board who could do a better job... They have not been "bought and paid for".
Bro its a nominated position. Everyone that gets it is compromised. Thats why he is towing the party line (my opinion only).
 
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Bro its a nominated position. Everyone that gets it is compromised. Thats why he is towing the party line (my opinion only).
And just look at how many "Nonimated Positions" are flying by the seat of their pants, pulling "rules" out of thin air while building an enviable pension, stock options and other perks. Incest
 
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With 10 million illegals here, already..... Jerome Powell is saying we need more. Time to send Jerome for a "psych eval"............
Stop the flow of free money.
____________________
Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell showed last week that he’s thinking about how recent lower immigration has factored into the ongoing U.S. labor shortage, but he said it’s not appropriate for the Fed to call for increased legal immigration to help alleviate the shortage.
Could his remarks, careful as they were, somehow move the needle on immigration policy?
His comments came as one new bipartisan proposal for immigration reform flopped in Congress, and some analysts say they aren’t optimistic about progress on immigration next year in a divided Washington. Still, others see Powell’s remarks having a small effect.
“Our labor force should be three and a half million more than it is,” the Fed chairman said in response to a question from MarketWatch during his Dec. 14 news conference, which followed the central bank’s latest interest-rate hike as it tries to tame inflation.

Need more workers? Stop all the government safety nets and people will go back to work. Look at the labor participation rate - how many are sitting on the sidelines? How many left corporate America, medical jobs, government, jobs, etc. due to the vax requirements?
 
The FED is a private cartel/organization.
They play pretend with a benevolent series of interactions with the regular crooks(our government).
In truth they will always favor the banking cartel as that is their employer.
They just deliver a line of bullshit to confuse the masses.

R
 
Need more workers? Stop all the government safety nets and people will go back to work. Look at the labor participation rate - how many are sitting on the sidelines? How many left corporate America, medical jobs, government, jobs, etc. due to the vax requirements?
Also quit playing mask and jab games. It is still going on sporadically.
 
Catch phrase :
“We are sadly parting ways with some incredibly talented people whom we have grown to cherish as friends and colleagues over the years. We will do our best to support them through the transition to find their next opportunities.”

2023 =

1671914053354.png
 
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“As Pluralsight’s co-founder and CEO, I have had to share some difficult news at various points in our company’s history. What I am sharing today is one of the toughest messages that I’ve ever delivered.
I’ve spoken to all of you this year about the challenging economic environment we’re operating in and how it has affected our business performance. Unfortunately, these challenges have only accelerated in Q4 and, as a result, today we are restructuring and reducing the size of our team, impacting roughly 20% of our team members. As your CEO, I own this outcome and take full responsibility for the decisions that got us here.”

 
As more Americans than ever applied for credit cards in 2022, credit card balances have also ballooned in record numbers.
“We expect to see those card balances exceed $900 billion by the end of the year this year,” says Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion.
“Now, that’s a level that we have never really seen.”
 
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....... It’s a problem that arises at the onset of every historic financial crisis – Mainstream economists and commentators lie to the public about the chances of recovery, constantly giving false reassurances and lulling people back to sleep.

 
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Worldwide:
The term “polycrisis” refers to crises that occur in multiple global systems and become entangled in such a way that they produce harms greater than those crises would in aggregate.
“Not only is our planet sick from continued growth scenarios, because we have gone way beyond a healthy use of natural resources, but our people are getting increasingly sick, and our young people are making less and less money,” Dixson-Declève said.

 
Worldwide:
The term “polycrisis” refers to crises that occur in multiple global systems and become entangled in such a way that they produce harms greater than those crises would in aggregate.
“Not only is our planet sick from continued growth scenarios, because we have gone way beyond a healthy use of natural resources, but our people are getting increasingly sick, and our young people are making less and less money,” Dixson-Declève said.

This quote is probably absolutely the stupidest thing I have seen this week. But it’s a holiday so the bar is higher than it should be.

Polycrisis is also a bullshit term. If we look at the world there are multiple crisis at that exact moment at any given time. Do not believe this targeted western world disinfo campaign.
 
This quote is probably absolutely the stupidest thing I have seen this week. But it’s a holiday so the bar is higher than it should be.

Polycrisis is also a bullshit term. If we look at the world there are multiple crisis at that exact moment at any given time. Do not believe this targeted western world disinfo campaign.
here's my Def
Polycrisis - a self-created crisis after marring two women (or cohabitating) and expecting them to get along. Usually occurs when the said two women are NOT sleeping. crisis can be as simple as, 'she said my hair looked bad' up to, she's wearing my shoes.
 
here's my Def
Polycrisis - a self-created crisis after marring two women (or cohabitating) and expecting them to get along. Usually occurs when the said two women are NOT sleeping. crisis can be as simple as, 'she said my hair looked bad' up to, she's wearing my shoes.
That is what Charlie Munger said:
 
A price drop of $2,000 on a $400,000 house makes headline news. Hang on....


U.S. home prices fall for fourth month in October as high mortgage rates bite. The numbers: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index fell 0.5% in October, its fourth monthly decline. Year-over-year prices rose rose 8.6%, slowing from 10.4% in the previous month.


 
A price drop of $2,000 on a $400,000 house makes headline news. Hang on....


U.S. home prices fall for fourth month in October as high mortgage rates bite. The numbers: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index fell 0.5% in October, its fourth monthly decline. Year-over-year prices rose rose 8.6%, slowing from 10.4% in the previous month.


that's how car sales works. I'll hike the price up 400%, cut off a few grand to make you seem like you get a 'deal'.
LOL, ignore the Vaseline on the desk, too expensive to use any more.