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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

That is a timely article.
Jerome Powell has said he will push America into a recession in an effort to lower inflation. The old guy's here have been through that a time or two. We knew it was coming, just as America knows today. We tightened our purse strings, did not try to keep up with the Jones's, continued to work at that crappy job with no appreciation, drove some 20 year old cars, clipped grocery store coupons and survived being a one income family. We learned a lot. There were very few $1,200 mobile phones in use at $3 / minute. When it was all over, we picked ourselves up, dusted the dust off and continued with life. I don't remember any Death Certificates that listed COD as Recession. In all fairness, this recession will last longer than the previous 3 or 4...
 
Getting more and more difficult to ignore the wolf at the door.
A U.S. recession is “quite likely” next year as persistent inflationary pressures force the Federal Reserve to shift interest rates higher than expected, former Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Tuesday.
 
Protocol reported earlier on the cuts, saying that they could affect up to 2,500 employees. One person familiar with the matter said Salesforce let go of fewer than 1,000 people on Monday. At the end of January it employed 73,541 people. In August Salesforce said in a filing that headcount rose 36% in the past year “to meet the higher demand for services from our customers.”
 
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Looking like the "Make Believe World" is getting ready to meet the "Real World" for many.
 
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I guess I should not describe myself as "one of the Poor's". I'll call myself a "cash strapped shopper".;)

CEO Ethan Brown called the results “disappointing” in the press release. Cash-strapped shoppers are skipping Beyond’s burger, sausage and chicken substitutes and instead buying cheaper proteins, according to Brown.

 
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I guess I should not describe myself as "one of the Poor's". I'll call myself a "cash strapped shopper".;)

CEO Ethan Brown called the results “disappointing” in the press release. Cash-strapped shoppers are skipping Beyond’s burger, sausage and chicken substitutes and instead buying cheaper proteins, according to Brown.

Yeah, no shit. Maybe if you added those super tasty bugs. Nope.
 
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By shedding half its value in the past 12 months, I believe that Amazon is the first ever company to lose a full $1 trillion off its market cap. And even after all that, it still carries a PE ratio of 89.

Oops, looks like I was a few days early and a few billion short with this proclamation last week.

 
Oops, looks like I was a few days early and a few billion short with this proclamation last week.

100 billion + or - is close enough for government work
 
We have got to get inflation behind us,” Powell said. “I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn't.” Powell's remarks followed another substantial three-quarters of a point rate hike — its third straight — by the Fed's policymaking committee. Sep 22, 2022
_______________________________________________________________

The president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve welcomed “some easing” in U.S. inflation, but she also said the central bank needs to keep raising interest rates until price pressures dissipate more rapidly.
“Given that inflation has consistently proven to be more persistent than expected and there are significant costs of continued high inflation, I currently view the larger risks as coming from tightening too little,” said Loretta Mester in a speech at Princeton University.
Mester did not indicate whether she would back a smaller increase in interest rates when senior Fed officials hold their next big meeting in December.
 
I'm constantly looking at Zillow, Realtor.com, etc. Mostly out of curiosity, but also looking for another small place in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, or Idaho. I'm see more and more properties listed as "Auction" which equates to foreclosure. It's coming, just a matter of how quickly or slowly it will happen.
 
I'm constantly looking at Zillow, Realtor.com, etc. Mostly out of curiosity, but also looking for another small place in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, or Idaho. I'm see more and more properties listed as "Auction" which equates to foreclosure. It's coming, just a matter of how quickly or slowly it will happen.
I swear this feels like 2008 again
 
I swear this feels like 2008 again
Similar to 2008... What I see here is how much "warning" we are getting in this situation. In 2008 the "House of Cards" collapsed rather quickly as did the S&L crash of the late 80's / early 90's. When the Government went to dolling out free money it was obvious that someone was going to have to Pay the Piper. We will be paying.
 
75% layoffs
Elon has a natural talent to have good people working for him.
Here is one: Gwynne Shotwell
I like what she said.
 
 
Bet the layoffs are in the "white collar" area and not the drivers. Notice all the "tech" company layoffs. Rise of the "robots" as AI/ML eliminates white collar jobs.
 
Bet the layoffs are in the "white collar" area and not the drivers. Notice all the "tech" company layoffs. Rise of the "robots" as AI/ML eliminates white collar jobs.
That is one more thing to note that is different about this recession.
The middle to lower class Americans working in the "Leisure and Hospitality" are simply pigeon holed into their skills / jobs / dwellings / education / etc. Appearing the first segment of the "White Collar" workers is the disappearance of the male workers who are being replaced by females. A White Collar male being forced down to a blue collar job is not a happy camper. They have no skill / trade, the Journeymen Craftsmen will not work for them since they can't perform the job they expect him to do. That group is between a rock and a hard place.

More and more I am hearing the phrase "The world is changing"... When you hear that, pause, look around and note the changes.
Survival of the Fittest...
 
With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers’ failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a “huge threat” to America’s credit rating and functioning of U.S. financial markets.



Debt Ceiling
1668282944578.png


 
With odds of a split U.S. Congress rising, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that lawmakers’ failure to raise the statutory limit on U.S. debt posed a “huge threat” to America’s credit rating and functioning of U.S. financial markets.



Debt Ceiling
View attachment 7997585

Note "raise the debt limit" not "reduce spending to within the limit"
 
That is one more thing to note that is different about this recession.
The middle to lower class Americans working in the "Leisure and Hospitality" are simply pigeon holed into their skills / jobs / dwellings / education / etc. Appearing the first segment of the "White Collar" workers is the disappearance of the male workers who are being replaced by females. A White Collar male being forced down to a blue collar job is not a happy camper. They have no skill / trade, the Journeymen Craftsmen will not work for them since they can't perform the job they expect him to do. That group is between a rock and a hard place.

More and more I am hearing the phrase "The world is changing"... When you hear that, pause, look around and note the changes.
Survival of the Fittest...
Corporate America wants to raise their ESG (spelling?) scores - quickest solution is laying off the older workers to make room for younger and more diverse employees (often at lower salaries)
 
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The ingredients for a stock market crash have been in place for quite a while, except the media (gov propaganda arm) hasn't steered everyone in the markets to run for the exits yet. If an undesireable was still president during these midterms, the stock market value would have already been cut in half.

Then again, with manufactured ballots at their fingertips, engineering a market crash may not be necessary anymore to sway the masses to vote for who the establishment wants in power.
 
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A large number of Twitter’s contract workers discovered they were suddenly terminated this weekend after they lost access to Slack and other work systems, according to internal communications shared with CNBC by full-time Twitter employees.
An estimated 4,400 of its 5,500 contract workers were cut, according to Platformer, which first reported on the cuts. CNBC has not confirmed the total number.


 
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The FED Reserve will drag their feet on rate increases and make this recession very painful through 2023.

“I think what’s really important to emphasize is we’ve done a lot but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time,” Brainard said.

........ over time.......... :(


 
  • Amazon is planning to lay off approximately 10,000 employees in corporate and technology roles beginning this week, according to a report from The New York Times.
  • The cuts would be the largest in the company’s history and would primarily impact Amazon’s devices organization, retail division and human resources, according to the report.
AI/ML = white collar jobs lost; SKYNET is coming
 
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Amazon stock has a trailing PE of about 91. Walmart's is a touch over 27. Amazon had best be damn careful they don't lose the growth-stock narrative at the wrong moment, or else this will be some very expensive cost-cutting.
 
Walmart said Tuesday that sales rose by nearly 9% in the fiscal third quarter, as Americans across income levels bought the company’s low-priced groceries.

Every day I am being told "The World is changing". After hearing that for an extended length of time I now say "The World Changed".... This "Changed World" is now the norm. Question: When things are great for Walmart, are things great for America ?

 
You can add dollar general, dollar tree and other low end retailers to that list.

I would say the above may be better indicators. I’m my area Walmart looks high end to dollar general.

🤷‍♂️
 
Ok so this gets a bit self serving at the end but…..

I can’t help but wonder how much truth there is in this.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/20...t-the-coming-recession-and-china-is-watching/

Imo the US dollars world dominance is coming to an end. What the future holds I can’t tell but it will not be good for the US citizens.
One key word in your statement - "Dominance"....
Several years ago I was in a discussion with some older folks. Two things they were very emphatic about were 1) the Petrodollar and 2) the FED Reserve could never raise the interest rate because then they could not service the debt.
The world changed.
Oil is being traded all over the world with no mention of the USD / Petrodollar and interest rates have risen as well as the national debt.

You are correct about not only the USD but the ability of America to dominate anything on the world's playing field.

So, what is the best position to take in this situation ?
 
This is a pretty spicy take considering the source:


I don't know if he's really trying to say "hold off on buying that pickup truck so that you can buy a few Kindles from me instead" or if indeed this is some sort of sincere advice. If the latter, it's a fascinating development.
 
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This is a pretty spicy take considering the source:


I don't know if he's really trying to say "hold off on buying that pickup truck so that you can buy a few Kindles from me instead" or if indeed this is some sort of sincere advice. If the latter, it's a fascinating development.
I'm seeing some of these quotes as a bit of a hedge. If / when shit goes really bad, their PR people will pull out these old quotes and label them as "forward looking" (ie: I told you so)... But, as of today they will all admit, no one has a crystal ball. The forward thinkers have thrown out their old play book and are formulating the 2023 Play Book. Has anyone noticed how quiet all of those "Think Tanks" have been for the past 6 months ?
 
Worthy of being posted in a few places.



I will say that this will tie into thing completely at sone point in the near future. How far out I can not say.
 
Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.
 
Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.
buy more ammo
 
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Unfortunately, the gold option is more viable than most others suggested. I'm very short on storage space, so buying more guns and ammo isn't going to work, as I sold a bunch of stuff when I downsized homes. Didn't realize how much crap I owned until it was time to move it.
 
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I actually bid today on a collectable vehicle, and got outbid quickly. It's unreal how much collectable vehicles are selling for.
 
Questions for you guys. With money becoming more worthless day by day, and not having a crystal ball to look into the future, should I...?

Have the opportunity to purchase a really nice used SUV for well below market value, it's a 2021 with 35K miles. Really don't need another vehicle, but hate seeing my money becoming worthless. I would like to invest in some real estate, but finding something that fits some of my criteria, and still allows me to pay cash is not happening as those properties I'm looking for are still highly inflated from Covid.
I understand your dilemma. I have seen this same situation in the previous 3 or 4 recessions. In every case there have been folks who just sat on their nest egg and other's who grew impatient and spent it on other things. Real estate runs in a cycle.. You old guy's have seen it.
The world has changed. I am compiling myself a "New Rule Book". One of the first Rules I added was "You will never be able to buy anything at the pre-pandemic price". If you can accept that rule, continue to build your nest egg and be patient.... That property will present itself.
 
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For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

 
For all you folks needing (not wanting) to get a house, 2023 is going to present some opportunities to get a "fair house at a fair price".....
Get over "waiting for the price to drop"... It ain't happening. Get over "waiting for the interest rate to drop"...
Somehow, gather up all the loose cash you can find and put it in the local savings and loan bank... Why ? Because those funds must be locked somewhere traceable, for at least 30 - 60 days, before you just jump up and make an offer on a house. Mortgage underwriters don't like a buyer to get money from any "untraceable sources" at the last minute. Yep, I know... Money sitting in the bank is being eaten by inflation. So what ?... You need a house and there is going to be a lot of pain to get it. Suck it up.

Here is my sobering motivation. If, by the close of 2023 you do not own a house, you will be renting your residence for the rest of your life.

Still not seeing anything moving downward in my local, prices still high, and builder's are still booked out two to three years, with excavation and foundations sitting without any more work being done.

However, I'm seeing inventory starting to increase, not only homes, but vacant lot's.

One weird thing, a new listing popped up down the road for me. Half acre lot for $70K, and it's in a hole. Saw a lot of people pulling over and looking at it this last weekend.
 
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