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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

But the main reason to worry at the moment is that the financial system is at a crucial stage in the monetary cycle. After 15 years of accommodative monetary policy, during which the US Federal Reserve increased its balance sheet from $1 billion to $9 billion, the central bank is now trying to extract liquidity from the system, to the tune of about $1 billion. dollars per year.

Hmm... Fed balance sheet went from $1 TRILLION to $9 TRILLION
 
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Just "put it on the card"....
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There is 'still recovery in travel left,' CFO says


Visa shares gained 1.4% in after-hours trading Thursday after the financial-technology powerhouse topped earnings and revenue expectations for its latest quarter.


"The pulse of the consumer is normal and healthy and very stable," Chief Financial Officer Vasant Prabhu told MarketWatch. Looking globally, people spent 46% more in the December quarter than they did in the comparable period in 2019, Visa said on its earnings call.


That comes even as consumers continue to show a shift in spending preference to services and away from goods as they can leave their homes more.


Payments volume rose 7% in the fiscal first quarter on a constant-currency basis, while processed transactions increased 10%. Visa (V) saw 22% growth in cross-border volume, or 31% growth when excluding transactions within Europe.


Outgoing Chief Executive Al Kelly, who will step down from his role at the start of February, noted that the company benefited from a "continued cross-border travelrecovery."


Prabhu said there's "still recovery in travel left." Travel to the U.S. has not gotten back to 2019 levels, he noted, as the strong dollar has an impact. China, meanwhile, is just reopening.

 
Old news - research forest products jobs loss in Oregon and Washington states. Constantly beating up the paper companies, wood products companies etc. with government red tape/harassment = closed plants and mass layoffs.
As a fifth generation wood products industry Oregonian.
Really don't think I need to "research the subject".
 
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All part of "the plan"..... Relocate the population to the mega cities for jobs, health care, free schools / colleges, services and live in a shoe box paid for by the government. Easier to control the populace.
For anyone thinking of relocating to a remote, off the grid retreat..... You have to have an awful lot of money "in the bank" because you can not make a living in a remote area...
Comments ?........ Surely I will get an argument from an Internet surfer who is saying they are doing it.. If so, send photos with your reply.
 
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All part of "the plan"..... Relocate the population to the mega cities for jobs, health care, free schools / colleges, services and live in a shoe box paid for by the government. Easier to control the populace.
For anyone thinking of relocating to a remote, off the grid retreat..... You have to have an awful lot of money "in the bank" because you can not make a living in a remote area...
Comments ?........ Surely I will get an argument from an Internet surfer who is saying they are doing it.. If so, send photos with your reply.
F11754E3-5233-4909-B11F-8E6DEBFCCB48.jpeg

How many blow gun kills you got bro?
 
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"It's crazy right now. We're stuck in this loop of wage inflation, product inflation and cost inflation. And it's just that cycle keeps going. And I think, unfortunately, an inevitable byproduct of some of the Fed's moves and as the necessary medicine we have to take to kind of cool things down and get the inflation back under control on some of these layoffs that are coming,"
"We need workers, but we need workers we can employ that are in the country legally. What's happening now is you're letting people in that can't participate in the workforce but do increase demand. So, you have increased demand driving prices up without the workforce to be able to service it. So, it's a complicated factor. Certain inputs are trying to solve inflation, but you have counteracting forces that kind of mess that up," he said.

 
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Dutch health technology company Philips said on Monday it would scrap 6,000 jobs to restore its profitability following a recall of respiratory devices that knocked off 70% of its market value.
 
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All part of "the plan"..... Relocate the population to the mega cities for jobs, health care, free schools / colleges, services and live in a shoe box paid for by the government. Easier to control the populace.
For anyone thinking of relocating to a remote, off the grid retreat..... You have to have an awful lot of money "in the bank" because you can not make a living in a remote area...
Comments ?........ Surely I will get an argument from an Internet surfer who is saying they are doing it.. If so, send photos with your reply.
I'm working on that plan too. My job can't be done remotely, so I am training to one that can. Learn to code they said. Once I'm caught up there I will be ready to go.
 
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I'm working on that plan too. My job can't be done remotely, so I am training to one that can. Learn to code they said. Once I'm caught up there I will be ready to go.
Aren't the "coders" getting laid off by the thousands? Lots of "coding" can be done remotely in India and Brazil, too. Maybe welding or plumbing.
 
Aren't the "coders" getting laid off by the thousands? Lots of "coding" can be done remotely in India and Brazil, too. Maybe welding or plumbing.
My thought too. Any job that can be done remotely will be outsourced to India for 20% of the cost in NA. The cab I called on the weekend was dispatched from India. Quoted time was too long, called the other guy, local, and he filled me in on his competitor. He can hire 5 employees in India for the same cost as 1 minimum wage here. The trick is to only do jobs that require you to be physically present on the site and where experienced hands are far more effective than random grabbers.
 
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I have experience in this area. While it is true you can get developers from India or elsewhere to do things on the cheap, it is not always true that they can code efficiently. Lots of timelines are blown out of the water due to using them. The reason is that while they have coding ability they do not have industry experience., nor do they have a resource on hand to that does that can guide them. This experience translates into how they perceive the code should be written to meet the specs. Again and again I have lived this nightmare, and currently have a fellow business owner who is going through this. The QC effort over there is sub-par, again due to a lack of industry knowledge. This requires way more additional money spent stateside on QC than is anticipated, and then you get into the loop of bug fixes, middle of the night conference calls, etc. Can it work out? Sure. But it isn't as straightforward as one initially thinks. If a company doesn't want to hire local due to cost savings they really need to factor in time lags and costs; the ROI on that kind of venture is not usually what the spreadsheet says.
 
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Aren't the "coders" getting laid off by the thousands? Lots of "coding" can be done remotely in India and Brazil, too. Maybe welding or plumbing.
Again, welding and plumbing can't be done much from the woods. Most of the guys I grew up with can stick weld and torch at a good level and maintain their own stuff. You better be handicapped or it better be a big job to call for help.

Yes, some of the coders are being paid off. If I had to guess, they are culling the underperformers and the fantastic foreign coders that require someone to unscrew their code or work every day. I saw a lot of Ericsson "engineers" in telecom that had to call a friend for almost every piece of a project. Those guys are going to get culled eventually. At some point you have to produce once companies start tightening the purse strings.

So the question is how to keep earning while heading out to the country. Sure you can be a trades merc and roll around the state, but after 50 that loses some luster. Coding was a neat idea, but if things get a lot worse it will go by the wayside.

I guess we have to go back to the 1800s and look to country trades. Those of us with those skills are limited I would bet.
 
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I understand where every perspective of this conversation is coming from.
My hat is off to whoever penned this saying to paper. Short and to the point. Nothing has changed.
Marines are trained to improvise, adapt, and overcome all obstacles in all situations.
 
I have experience in this area. While it is true you can get developers from India or elsewhere to do things on the cheap, it is not always true that they can code efficiently. Lots of timelines are blown out of the water due to using them. The reason is that while they have coding ability they do not have industry experience., nor do they have a resource on hand to that does that can guide them. This experience translates into how they perceive the code should be written to meet the specs. Again and again I have lived this nightmare, and currently have a fellow business owner who is going through this. The QC effort over there is sub-par, again due to a lack of industry knowledge. This requires way more additional money spent stateside on QC than is anticipated, and then you get into the loop of bug fixes, middle of the night conference calls, etc. Can it work out? Sure. But it isn't as straightforward as one initially thinks. If a company doesn't want to hire local due to cost savings they really need to factor in time lags and costs; the ROI on that kind of venture is not usually what the spreadsheet says.
I have experience in this area, too. Everything you say is 100% correct; however, the CEOs - CFOs - etc. are all finance/accounting people who do not understand or want to understand the actual "business". They make the bad but "cheap" choice anyway.
 
I worked in the stock market/finance up until a year ago... All the companies I spoke with were generally of the approach to only send testing type activities off-shore. Any real development was a losing proposition after the delays, rework and throw-away.
 
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I have experience in this area. While it is true you can get developers from India or elsewhere to do things on the cheap, it is not always true that they can code efficiently. Lots of timelines are blown out of the water due to using them. The reason is that while they have coding ability they do not have industry experience., nor do they have a resource on hand to that does that can guide them. This experience translates into how they perceive the code should be written to meet the specs. Again and again I have lived this nightmare, and currently have a fellow business owner who is going through this. The QC effort over there is sub-par, again due to a lack of industry knowledge. This requires way more additional money spent stateside on QC than is anticipated, and then you get into the loop of bug fixes, middle of the night conference calls, etc. Can it work out? Sure. But it isn't as straightforward as one initially thinks. If a company doesn't want to hire local due to cost savings they really need to factor in time lags and costs; the ROI on that kind of venture is not usually what the spreadsheet says.
Truth

I don't hire any SW assets that are located overseas
 
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I have experience in this area. While it is true you can get developers from India or elsewhere to do things on the cheap, it is not always true that they can code efficiently. Lots of timelines are blown out of the water due to using them. The reason is that while they have coding ability they do not have industry experience., nor do they have a resource on hand to that does that can guide them. This experience translates into how they perceive the code should be written to meet the specs. Again and again I have lived this nightmare, and currently have a fellow business owner who is going through this. The QC effort over there is sub-par, again due to a lack of industry knowledge. This requires way more additional money spent stateside on QC than is anticipated, and then you get into the loop of bug fixes, middle of the night conference calls, etc. Can it work out? Sure. But it isn't as straightforward as one initially thinks. If a company doesn't want to hire local due to cost savings they really need to factor in time lags and costs; the ROI on that kind of venture is not usually what the spreadsheet says.

Simply saying "agreed" doesn't quite do this justice, but I feel that a proper response would take far more time to write than I have and far more time to read than anyone has.

Things only get worse when you place additional constraints on the task. Try having an overseas contractor do something like write embedded code for a brushless DC motor controller, using a microcontroller w/o floating point, that needs to be compliant with modern automotive cybersecurity and functional safety requirements, and passes EMC testing.

There are currently about 50,000 degrees awarded each year in CompSci, CompEng, and EE. My best guess is that about 10% of them will eventually become effective developers (this is a generous estimate). There seems to be some hope that the dot-com layoffs will yield a large resource pool for automotive and industrial companies, but I'm deeply skeptical.
 
Simply saying "agreed" doesn't quite do this justice, but I feel that a proper response would take far more time to write than I have and far more time to read than anyone has.

Things only get worse when you place additional constraints on the task. Try having an overseas contractor do something like write embedded code for a brushless DC motor controller, using a microcontroller w/o floating point, that needs to be compliant with modern automotive cybersecurity and functional safety requirements, and passes EMC testing.

There are currently about 50,000 degrees awarded each year in CompSci, CompEng, and EE. My best guess is that about 10% of them will eventually become effective developers (this is a generous estimate). There seems to be some hope that the dot-com layoffs will yield a large resource pool for automotive and industrial companies, but I'm deeply skeptical.
Yes sir. I think deeply skeptical is an understatement. People completely discount the value of industry experience, and then wonder why stuff doesn’t work. How many years does it take to wrap your head around coding and then the specifics of an industry? Much more than it appears at first blush. I really don’t think Twitter or Facebook developers are going to be of any use to anyone in any serious fashion for a couple years. I doubt most would even stoop so low as to actually get involved in an industry that actually makes useful components for society. No bragging rights in it, just real value to the world.
 
looks like UK is greasing their wheel
..incubation arm of Barclays Bank
Interesting to watch Europe / UK... They have gone down a lot of Rabbit Holes over the past few years. I think they have held onto slightly more "Craftsmanship" that America... Not sure of what will pull them out of this recession.
 
PayPal Cutting About 2,000 Workers in Restructuring
PayPal President and CEO Dan Schulman told employees in an email Tuesday that the company is cutting its global workforce by 2,000 full-time employees, or about 7% of its workers, over the coming weeks
.9 mins ago
 
FED's report tomorrow and "it is expected" they will raise interest ,25%... Hearing this statement more.
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Disinflation is a temporary slowing of the pace of price inflation and is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term. Unlike inflation and deflation, which refer to the direction of prices, disinflation refers to the rate of change in the rate of inflation.
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Really no change in direction, simply prolonging the agony. Forcing the working Middle Class to use up their resources (savings, credit, etc), continue to drive a 15 year old vehicle, not get the house painted this spring, pull out the kid's summer clothes from last summer and see if they can get one more summer out of them, Shoe Goo patches on the tennis shoes and buying more at the Goodwill store rather than the regional mall... Take note when you get a 1/2 pound of that Black Forest ham at the deli in the grocery store.... Paper thin slices... But a Mom stretching her budget will put one slice and some cheap American cheese on the kid's sandwiches... Eating more fatty ground meat, Hamburger Helper and Top Ramen....
Going to be a long year.

 
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Points
  • Total credit card debt reached a record $930.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest credit report from TransUnion.
  • As balance rise, so have delinquencies, which is “something to watch,” says TransUnion’s Michele Raneri.
 
A friend got laid off from a major computer manufacturer yesterday. He said that sales are in the dumpster and was told by management that they were cutting 6000 jobs.
 
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In an unusual moment for the US economy, analysts look for hidden signals of consumers’ worries


Reversecowgirl69 has been dancing for six years in clubs from Texas to New York. The graduate student and stripper tracks her income carefully, and in May 2022 she noticed it dropping: “I was noticing that there were just fewer higher-earning people coming into the club, and when that happens, you know something bad is going to happen.” She tweeted a warning: “The strip club is sadly a leading indicator and i can promise y’all we r in a recession lmao.”
The tweet went viral, and at least within her club, it seemed to be correct. Over the next few months, her earnings continued to plunge, and the other workers at the club said the same. By December – usually an excellent month for strip clubs – business “was abysmal”, and, she says, her income that month was down by half compared with the same time last year. “It was bad for everybody. I know girls who dance in Vegas and even they weren’t making money. They’re like the oracles we consult, and if Vegas girls aren’t making money, no one’s making money.”

Printed article due to Paywall


 
sad, it's just getting started.. going to be hell for a few years.
Eggs, Eggs, Eggs, NO Eggs at Costco. Sam Club, 1 dozen for 4.25 a dozen, LIMIT 1. (that only had about 30 dozen left.)
Granted, I can buy eggs at 10.00 a dozen all day long right now!!
with losing a 100K chickens in CA, and NZ just lost 75,000 chickens, from 'mysterious' fire, you know something's up.
 
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What? It's the greatest Economy EVER!!! Lowest unemployment EVER!!! Why are corps cutting jobs under GREAT circumstances. Are Corps bundling this as 'right' sizing? All I hear is the sucking of 'offshore' jobs leaving the US. Remember Ross Perot!!
 
The "momentum" of this recession explained in one sentence.

Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping firms, on Wednesday reported a fall in fourth-quarter earnings but posted the best full-year result in its history.

so, what's the PC term for anal screwing everyone?
  • Maersk raised its dividend to 4,300 Danish krone ($620.33) per share from 2,500 DKK per share.
  • an “exceptional” year in 2022 on the back of a continued rise in ocean freight rates, but flagged in its record-breaking third-quarter earnings report that these rates had peaked and a normalization would negatively impact earnings, with former CEO Søren Skou warning of “dark clouds on the horizon.”
 
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Credit Suisse
on Thursday reported a fourth-quarter and annual net loss that missed expectations, as the Swiss bank continued with its huge strategic overhaul.
The lender’s fourth-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders came in at 1.4 billion Swiss francs ($1.51 billion), worse than analyst projections of a loss 1.32 billion Swiss francs, according to Eikon.
 
Interesting new phrases for 2023:

Rolling Recession:
“Rolling recessions” has become a popular term these days for what the U.S. has faced since a slowdown that started in early 2022. The term connotes that while the economy may not meet an official recession definition, there will be sectors that will feel very much like they are in contraction.

Disinflationary Process:
The rate of inflation falls but remains positive—prices still rise, but not as quickly as they were rising in the recent past.

Regional Inflation:
An area was experiencing inflation that is higher than the historical average for the nation,
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A man and his young daughter came out of the grocery store. As they neared Dad's pickup truck he commented that his truck had a flat tire. In an effort to make Dad feel better his young daughter said "But Dad, it's only flat on the bottom.
Both your Government as well as your elected officials are creating new phrases to make you feel better as your grocery and power bill are twice what they were two years ago.

1676292510008.png



 
gobbly gook speak.....
We know what it is, but they won't admit it, so they keep 'redefining' what it is, so they don't have to admit, what we know what "it" is.
Well, those of us who have survived 3 - 4 recessions know what it is... The younger generations are listening to the chat bots that talk all the way around reality / common sense. Like everything else in history, the day will arrive when "the light bulb comes on".
 
Well, those of us who have survived 3 - 4 recessions know what it is... The younger generations are listening to the chat bots that talk all the way around reality / common sense. Like everything else in history, the day will arrive when "the light bulb comes on".
From an Xer:
You sound like that guy sounding off to your friends about how your kids or grandkids "just won't listen." Hmm, let's take a look at that for a minute.

It's hard to believe that "younger generations" wouldn't ask for advice from older generations...



From the comments following the presentation by the American Enterprise Institute:
"Boss is a boomer, has 2 houses paid off, a timeshare at a resort, a Jaguar, collecting social security. My parents bought their home in 2001 for 200k, my father is an immigrant who has not even a HS diploma, he was able to afford a home on a 40k income. I make a decent 60k but live in their garage because it's $1800 for a 1 bedroom apartment in my area and I have 40k in student debt. Average home price here in Southern California is now $737,000. I have friends making near 6 figure incomes that are living with multiple roommates. Home ownership will likely never be in the cards for me and most in my generation unless we become rich or leave this state. I find it laughable that boomers try to talk down to us. Many did drugs and partied all through the 60s, 70s and 80s. First as hippies, then at the discos, then in the club scene. Yet jobs were still a plenty and they could buy homes on a minimal income. They claim millennials are lazy yet research shows we work far more hours for much less actual income, in fact making 20% less at the same age although far more educated and working more hours."

https://nypost.com/2020/08/08/why-millennials-distaste-for-baby-boomers-is-justified/

Additionally, at least according to VISA, it's not like any one generation is really buckling down in the face of strong financial headwinds...From 2018 (pre-pandemic): "Baby boomers, compared to generations that preceded them, are retiring later, holding on to more debt and maintaining budgets for travel and other discretionary treats."

More recently (2022), it has been noted that:
Baby boomers increased their spending on new clothes by 28 percent compared to before the pandemic.
Baby boomers spend $11,159 annually on housing on average, which is less than Gen Xers and millennials.
Baby boomers planned to spend $7,800 on travel in 2020 prior to the pandemic.
Only 26 percent of baby boomers have a backup plan for retirement if they’re forced into retirement sooner than they thought.
Only 55 percent of baby boomers have money saved for retirement.
Average debt for baby boomers rose by 6.7 percent to $140,887 throughout the pandemic while debt held by other generations fell.
33 percent of baby boomers say student loan debt has prevented them from buying a car.


All of this despite:
Baby boomers in the gig economy make an average annual salary of $43,600, working 25 hours a week.
Baby boomers hold 51 percent of all wealth in the United States.
Total pension entitlements for baby boomers are more than $15 trillion, more than any other living generation.
Baby boomers hold more than $20 trillion in stocks and mutual funds.

Now, you might say that you're not represented by all or even part of these statistics. You certainly post as someone who lives a frugal and deliberate lifestyle. That's why it's disappointing to see you, or anyone, make sweeping generalizations about "younger generations" or that eventually "the light bulb [will come] on."

Your posts make you look like you are hoping, maybe praying, that you will finally have that "I told you so moment" to justify your actions and choices. Yeah, it's hard to believe that younger generations aren't in to listening to you. I hope you never have that "I told you so moment" and so should you. We are all getting too old to enjoy it.