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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

An FYI message:
Every single Democrat voted against it,
___________________________________________________________

Dear friends,

This week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released data confirming the United States has entered an economic recession. Inflation remains at record highs, gas prices are still out of control, and wages are not keeping up with rising prices.

Americans are feeling the pain of the Biden Economy, yet the Biden Administration refuses to reverse the policies creating this crisis. To make matters worse, the liberal media is now trying to change the definition of a recession to cover the administration’s failures. The American people do not need an economist to tell them our economy has drastically declined since the Trump Administration.

While our economic situation continues to deteriorate, liberals in Congress are actively supporting policies that undermine our national security. House Republicans forced a vote on legislation this week to prevent the Biden Administration from selling any more of our strategic oil reserves to communist China. Every single Democrat voted against it, and they should be ashamed.

Take my survey below and keep reading for more information on what’s happening in Washington.


Respectfully,
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I know, $2.5 million is not a "lot of money". But, if it was in my back pocket, I would not see these times as a recession, either.
Drink some more Koolaid...
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Paul Krugman net worth: Paul Krugman is an American economist and author who has a net worth of $2.5 million dollars. Born in Albany, New York, Paul Krugman earned his B.A. in Economics from Yale University, and then went on to earn his Ph.D. from MIT. He began developing his theories on economics while completing his doctorate, and after graduating he began teaching at various universities, including MIT, Princeton, Yale, the London School of Economics, and Stanford.

 
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Appears the top is forming:
so, from a Biden perspective, there are tons of jobs and the economy is 'perfect'.

Great news. Remember, those aren't blackouts in your cities when you have no electricity, they are equality movements of the electrical grid.
Do your part, turn off all electrical appliances and walk everywhere; Al Gore needs the electricity.
 
Germany is the largest economy in Europe, followed by United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Russia. These five together hold a 50% share of the European economy. Total ten European economies represent almost 80% share.
FTSE 100
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An indicator of things to come
 

So I'm not exactly a Krugman fan (in the most reductive form, he's a punching bag to be mocked like Jim Kramer). But in this particular case, he's simply not demonstrating the academic nuance that he's demonstrated in the past, such as here:


Put another way, he's old and cranky and way too partisan to be of any use when discussing serious topics.
 
One of the oldest schemes in the book. Give us your USD's and we will give you a piece of paper.
Deja Vu


Why does Apple need to raise cash when it's already sitting on so much that it can basically burn it to heat its headquarters? I totally get that it's cheap to borrow (presumably cheaper than in the future), but this presents significant risk in a deflationary environment.
 
I know, $2.5 million is not a "lot of money". But, if it was in my back pocket, I would not see these times as a recession, either.
Drink some more Koolaid...
______________________________

Paul Krugman net worth: Paul Krugman is an American economist and author who has a net worth of $2.5 million dollars. Born in Albany, New York, Paul Krugman earned his B.A. in Economics from Yale University, and then went on to earn his Ph.D. from MIT. He began developing his theories on economics while completing his doctorate, and after graduating he began teaching at various universities, including MIT, Princeton, Yale, the London School of Economics, and Stanford.

Plenty of people on Hide with $2.5 million in optics, rifles, reloading gear, primers, etc. - I seen the pictures of the toys!
 
damn, 100,000 from Amazon
Geico closing all of CA
Robinhood,
you'd think biden would be keeping a running tab of his economy that's 'Perfect'
 
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Read "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand to see how this clown show will turn out.
As we speak, due to Federal Rules and Regulations (not Union contracts) There are not enough certified train engineers and crews to keep trains moving. As you guys travel, note how many trains are sitting and idling on the tracks. Why " Because the crews have run out of hours".... The company shuttles the tired crew off the train and eventually brings out a fresh crew. Trains don't run to a hub and change crews. When the DOT hours are up, the train stops.
A lot of these engineer's are past retirement age and still working... As in Atlas Shrugged the old guy's are getting fed up with the BS and retire.
I'm sure someone will say "Well, just bring in the National Guard to run the trains"... How's that been working out ?
____________________________________
WASHINGTON — Ongoing service problems related to crew shortages on the U.S. Class I railroads are entirely self-inflicted due to the implementation of Precision Scheduled Railroading, the SMART Transportation Division labor union has told federal regulators.


“The freight rail network is at a breaking point,” union President Jeremy Ferguson wrote in an April 1 letter to the Surface Transportation Board. “It cannot sustain any more reductions. Substantial changes must be made, and they must be made quickly. We believe intervention from the STB is critically warranted and necessary to right this ship.”

I have a relative that depends on trains to move the product he oversees. He says exactly the same thing about hours, crews, and why rail transport is so slow now.
 
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Well, which is it ? Up or down ?
Drink some more Koolaid while the Government redefines "Recession".


 
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Well, which is it ? Up or down ?
Drink some more Koolaid while the Government redefines "Recession".


It was slow, real slow, but not as slow as we thought, so the amount of downturn and slowness, 'beat our expectations' in this 'perfect economy'.
 
The "good" thing about the current inflationary environment is that the correction factor which is used to go from nominal to real numbers can be adjusted to obtain whatever result anyone wants. I wouldn't put much stock in month-to-month figures for this reason, and quarterly GDP numbers will be suspect for the same reason.
 
gov still lying. i remember the carter inflation times. a loaf of bread would go up $1/wk. now gas is up 100%,food items 50-80%,electricity 40-60%. none of that is included in gov stats. so,the lying continues and many focus on that and are angry,puzzled,afraid and distracted. the real numbers might get some action but i doubt it.
 
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The "good" thing about the current inflationary environment is that the correction factor which is used to go from nominal to real numbers can be adjusted to obtain whatever result anyone wants. I wouldn't put much stock in month-to-month figures for this reason, and quarterly GDP numbers will be suspect for the same reason.
But, look at everything that key's off of Government numbers..... Social Security, Medicare, Funds from the different districts (loans)...
The dice are loaded in favor of the Government... Even if they are lying.
 
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Government has to lie about inflation, if they told the truth, All government entities would be asking for a Cost of living increase (COLA); the gov doesn't want that. Raises are only for Senators and House Reps.
Think of all the SS peeps that are getting hammered right now.
 
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Walmart Cuts 200 Corporate Jobs as Costs, Inventory Sap Profit link

The cuts include staffers in merchandising and technology, said people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the matter is private. Walmart will also add an unspecified number of jobs in areas such as e-commerce, health and wellness, ad sales and supply chain, said one of the people.
 
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Old news... but, elimination of a key benchmark of layoff's.
____________

BLS 2013 Sequestration Information​


On March 1, 2013, President Obama ordered into effect the across-the-board spending cuts (commonly referred to as sequestration) required by the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, as amended. Under the order, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) must cut its current budget by more than $30 million, 5 percent of the current 2013 appropriation, by September 30, 2013. In order to achieve these savings and protect core programs, the BLS is taking the steps listed below:


  1. Eliminate the Measuring Green Jobs products.
    The BLS produces data on employment by industry and occupation for businesses that produce green goods and services. The BLS also conducts special employer surveys to provide data on the occupations and wages of jobs related to green technologies and practices, as well as develops and disseminates career information related to green jobs.
  2. Eliminate the Mass Layoff Statistics program.
    The Mass Layoff Statistics program provides information that identifies, describes, and tracks the effects of major job cutbacks in the economy.
  3. Eliminate the International Labor Comparisons program.
    The International Labor Comparisons (ILC) program adjusts foreign data to a common framework of concepts, definitions, and classifications to facilitate data comparisons between the United States and other countries. ILC data are used to assess United States economic performance relative to other countries, as well as to evaluate the competitive position of the United States in international markets.
  4. Freeze hiring and curtail spending.
    The quality and quantity of some BLS data likely will be diminished, as fewer resources are available to collect and review data or to perform data analysis. This may result in lower response rates, fewer published estimates, and a loss of detail in some data series. The reduced funding level also may result in a decline in customer service, as fewer Federal and State staff will be accessible to respond to data inquiries from the public, other Federal government agencies, and Congress.

Through these measures, the BLS expects to preserve to the extent possible the quality of its remaining products; however, the actions described above will reduce somewhat the ability of the BLS to supply timely and accurate information on the economy and labor market, and halt implementation of critical data improvements that were planned for this year.
 
Old news... but, elimination of a key benchmark of layoff's.
____________

BLS 2013 Sequestration Information​


On March 1, 2013, President Obama ordered into effect the across-the-board spending cuts (commonly referred to as sequestration) required by the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, as amended. Under the order, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) must cut its current budget by more than $30 million, 5 percent of the current 2013 appropriation, by September 30, 2013. In order to achieve these savings and protect core programs, the BLS is taking the steps listed below:


  1. Eliminate the Measuring Green Jobs products.
    The BLS produces data on employment by industry and occupation for businesses that produce green goods and services. The BLS also conducts special employer surveys to provide data on the occupations and wages of jobs related to green technologies and practices, as well as develops and disseminates career information related to green jobs.
  2. Eliminate the Mass Layoff Statistics program.
    The Mass Layoff Statistics program provides information that identifies, describes, and tracks the effects of major job cutbacks in the economy.
  3. Eliminate the International Labor Comparisons program.
    The International Labor Comparisons (ILC) program adjusts foreign data to a common framework of concepts, definitions, and classifications to facilitate data comparisons between the United States and other countries. ILC data are used to assess United States economic performance relative to other countries, as well as to evaluate the competitive position of the United States in international markets.
  4. Freeze hiring and curtail spending.
    The quality and quantity of some BLS data likely will be diminished, as fewer resources are available to collect and review data or to perform data analysis. This may result in lower response rates, fewer published estimates, and a loss of detail in some data series. The reduced funding level also may result in a decline in customer service, as fewer Federal and State staff will be accessible to respond to data inquiries from the public, other Federal government agencies, and Congress.

Through these measures, the BLS expects to preserve to the extent possible the quality of its remaining products; however, the actions described above will reduce somewhat the ability of the BLS to supply timely and accurate information on the economy and labor market, and halt implementation of critical data improvements that were planned for this year.
so much in that last paragraph. Don't want people to be able to track stuff, then people will be able to call out the BS of the Gov statistics

, and halt implementation of critical data improvements
ability of the BLS to supply timely and accurate information on the economy and labor market,
 
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This is about the time, as a recession takes hold, we start reading articles about the "job hopper's" who jump to the next high paying job with all the benefits. After getting settled in the company decides to downsize and ride out the recession.
The risk of being the new guy when the downsize rumor starts to circulate and the previous job offers are withdrawn.
That crappy job you have held for a few years may work out in your best interest.

Deja vu
 
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Buybacks generally piss me off. Companies that do this are basically telling me that they have no good ideas for investing capital. I don't like to be associated with such companies. It's especially irritating when companies execute buybacks for a decade or more and then have to beg the federal government for help, as we've recently seen with Intel.

Energy companies are in a different spot, though. I'm sure that Exxon can find plenty of projects on which to spend its recent windfall, but why would they? The current admin has made it clear that they see no future for petroleum in our country. Someone would have to be dumb to reinvest profits in that market, so yeah, go ahead and return the capital to shareholders.
 
In response to decelerating demand late in the second quarter, the company has delayed construction of a new beverage can manufacturing plant in North Las Vegas, and ceased production at its Phoenix, Ariz., and St. Paul, Minn., facilities.

 
There are people who remember the quick onset of previous recessions. Employer's remember it also. Take the new (lucrative) job in a far away place. Fly in with a suit case, rent a compact car, rent an unfurnished flat (month to month) and get minimum furnishings from RCII. Negotiate with new employer to cover all of your rental expenses. New employer will appreciate hiring a frugal new employee. History repeating.

big.chart



 
New York (CNN Business)The Federal Reserve's war on inflation will eventually kill the economic recovery from Covid-19, former Fed official Bill Dudley warns.
The problem is that the Fed began its quest to tame inflation late, leaving the central bank little choice other than to slam the brakes on the economy by drastically raising interest rates.

 
This is only going to pick up steam. The trade jobs will start to follow in the next few months
Zillow is expected to continue showing large declines in revenue as it exits the iBuying business and laps the periods in which it frantically sold houses that it bought in too large a quantity and at high prices last year, an effort that included just 71 homes for sale at the end of the second quarter.