Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

Laughable.
__________________

Leisure and hospitality led the way in job gains with 96,000, followed by professional and business services with 89,000. Health care added 70,000 and government payrolls grew 57,000. Goods-producing industries also posted solid gains, with construction up 32,000 and manufacturing adding 30,000.

Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 258,000 in July, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rtB]

Less people working than last month, but 528k jobs added (uhh, "seasonally adjusted"). Bizarro world.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Less people working than last month, but 528k jobs added (uhh, "seasonally adjusted"). Bizarro world.

WINK.....

 

[Snuby642]

What ever you are smokin', sniffin' or drinkin'...... Please share it with the rest of us.
I may start a "Snake Farm".... With as much Snake Oil that is being slathered around.... Got to be a demand for it... Going watch a Youtube video on snake milkin' and oil squeezin'

 

[babyguppy]

Laughable.
__________________

Leisure and hospitality led the way in job gains with 96,000, followed by professional and business services with 89,000. Health care added 70,000 and government payrolls grew 57,000. Goods-producing industries also posted solid gains, with construction up 32,000 and manufacturing adding 30,000.

Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 258,000 in July, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

AND.....
"Economists had expected 258,000 jobs for July
The jobs market has now fully recovered from the pandemic job losses, with both the unemployment rate and total payrolls at their February 2020 prepandemic levels."

Everything is PERFECT!!!!!!
edit - AND.....
"Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 15 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $32.27.
Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $27.57. The wage gains were higher than expected. "
Everything is great.. wages up, unemployment down, GDP down, LOL. When you hit me with 50% inflation and a 1.5% job pay increase... then tell me, you got a raise. AS YOU VOTE to RAISE TAXES on my WAGE.
yup, PERFECT

 

[babyguppy]

Less people working than last month, but 528k jobs added (uhh, "seasonally adjusted"). Bizarro world.

a person has to work, way to hard to decipher all the bull crap

"The prior month’s already very high jobs figure of 372,000 was revised up to 398,000. The jobs market has now fully recovered from the pandemic job losses, with both the unemployment rate and total payrolls at their February 2020 prepandemic levels"

U.S. Economy Adds 528,00 Jobs in July, Unemployment Falls to 3.5%

Economists had expected 258,000 jobs for July. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

a person has to work, way to hard to decipher all the bull crap

"The prior month’s already very high jobs figure of 372,000 was revised up to 398,000. The jobs market has now fully recovered from the pandemic job losses, with both the unemployment rate and total payrolls at their February 2020 prepandemic levels"

U.S. Economy Adds 528,00 Jobs in July, Unemployment Falls to 3.5%

Economists had expected 258,000 jobs for July. | Economy

www.breitbart.com

I'll decipher with a photo

 

[Bigfatcock]

Blackstone is preparing a record $50 billion vehicle to scoop up real estate bargains during the downturn — here's how to lock in higher yields than the big money

Priced out of the market? It's time to pivot.

www.yahoo.com

As I’ve stated 847,000 times, if you don’t own a house then you need to buy one right fucking now. At any price. Waiting for a 50% housing drop like 2008 is a fools dream.

Big money is chasing yield, and real estate is it.

Rent income in perpetuity, that will increase yearly+asset appreciation= You can’t compete.

America will be a nation of renters in the very near future.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Blackstone is preparing a record $50 billion vehicle to scoop up real estate bargains during the downturn — here's how to lock in higher yields than the big money

Priced out of the market? It's time to pivot.

www.yahoo.com

As I’ve stated 847,000 times, if you don’t own a house then you need to buy one right fucking now. At any price. Waiting for a 50% housing drop like 2008 is a fools dream.

Big money is chasing yield, and real estate is it.

Rent income in perpetuity, that will increase yearly+asset appreciation= You can’t compete.

America will be a nation of renters in the very near future.

Take Bigfatcock's recommendation. Or suffer the consequences. Take inventory of all the "fluff" in your life and get your priority straight.
Stop reading the propaganda from the financial advisors (guides).

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Making a long glide towards a hard landing.
____________
“While economic output contracted for two consecutive quarters in the first half of 2022, a strong labor market means that currently we are likely not in recession,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Conference Board. “However, economic activity is expected to further cool towards the end of the year and it is increasingly likely that the U.S. economy will fall into recession before year end or in early 2023.”

Danger ahead: The U.S. economy has yet to face its biggest recession challenge

You'd be hard-pressed now to find a recession in the rearview mirror. What's down the road, though, is another story.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mr.BR]

 

[Lightning8]

Labor Force Participation​

Even as the unemployment rate fell back to historically low levels, the labor force participation has not been recovering.

The labor force participation rate, which shows the share of the population that is working or looking for work, remains 1.3 percentage points below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4 percent.

Some economists believe this trend is concerning for the long-term health of the economy. The decline in labor force participation has been driven by several factors, including vaccine mandates and early retirement among baby boomers.

“You would have expected the aging population to lower it 0.4 [percentage points] over that period,” Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former Obama administration economic adviser wrote on Twitter. “The other 0.9 [percentage points] is not explained by standard demographic changes.”

from Epoch Times.

IMHO, there is a flood of 60+ year olds (maybe 50+) leaving the job market and taking their skills and experience with them and doubt they go back. Corporate America was hoping they worked until 70.

 

[Lightning8]

In response to decelerating demand late in the second quarter, the company has delayed construction of a new beverage can manufacturing plant in North Las Vegas, and ceased production at its Phoenix, Ariz., and St. Paul, Minn., facilities.

Home - Businesshala News

Businesshala is the part of journalism that tracks, records, analyzes, and interprets the business, economic and financial activities.

businesshala.com

I worked in the beverage packaging industry - people are turning their back on over-priced, unhealthy, and woke "sugar-water" and it is rippling through the "sugar-water" companies and their suppliers

 

[KZP]

 

[babyguppy]

Labor Force Participation​

Even as the unemployment rate fell back to historically low levels, the labor force participation has not been recovering.

The labor force participation rate, which shows the share of the population that is working or looking for work, remains 1.3 percentage points below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4 percent.

Some economists believe this trend is concerning for the long-term health of the economy. The decline in labor force participation has been driven by several factors, including vaccine mandates and early retirement among baby boomers.

“You would have expected the aging population to lower it 0.4 [percentage points] over that period,” Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former Obama administration economic adviser wrote on Twitter. “The other 0.9 [percentage points] is not explained by standard demographic changes.”

from Epoch Times.

IMHO, there is a flood of 60+ year olds (maybe 50+) leaving the job market and taking their skills and experience with them and doubt they go back. Corporate America was hoping they worked until 70.

some people are working two jobs, Gov screams job creation and 560,000 people joining the job program in July.
Reality, people need an extra 2 or 3 jobs to keep up with inflation.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

some people are working two jobs, Gov screams job creation and 560,000 people joining the job program in July.
Reality, people need an extra 2 or 3 jobs to keep up with inflation.

Recessions remind me of a "Merry Go Round". Everyone is grabbing for the brass ring (buying on credit). No one is noticing the Merry Go Round is going faster and faster (work more OT). At some point, enough is enough. What no one imagined is that they don't stop the Merry Go Round for you to get off when bills are piled up and your company shuts the doors.
Some of us have jumped off of that spinning Merry Go Round.. A few land on their feet and keep on running. For the majority, hitting the ground and sliding in the dirt leaves a lasting impression.
Beware of the pre-recession Merry Go Round.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Still patiently waiting to buy peoples shit for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Still patiently waiting to buy peoples shit for pennies on the dollar.

Bought a Troy Built Tomahawk Chipper today for $40. Noticing the "First of the Month" moving / relocating is picking up. More "stuff" is being donated to the thrift stores as people jam what they can into their car and not rent a U-Haul truck. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas there will be deals to be had. History repeating

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It's all good, until it's not.

Eighth Louisiana homeowners insurer goes under, stranding 10,300 policyholders

The U.S. failures have largely affected Louisiana and Florida, two states especially prone to hurricanes.

www.nola.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Bought a Troy Built Tomahawk Chipper today for $40. Noticing the "First of the Month" moving / relocating is picking up. More "stuff" is being donated to the thrift stores as people jam what they can into their car and not rent a U-Haul truck. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas there will be deals to be had. History repeating

We know where this is going. The media has pulled out all stops to hide the recession. They literally won’t acknowledge it.

Shit will get real after the elections.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We know where this is going. The media has pulled out all stops to hide the recession. They literally won’t acknowledge it.

Shit will get real after the elections.

Watch for the advertisements warning to "Do Your Christmas shopping early" and save 10% with a Walmart Credit Card.

 

[Snuby642]

After the elections civil war will be acknowledged and recognized by all.

The loosing side in this midterm will start it.

It is an unavoidable reconciliation.

The folks on Jan 6th recognized it and have been treated like insurgents by the American communist party.

The rest of us have sat on our ass and done nothing about it.

 

[Snipe260]

some people are working two jobs, Gov screams job creation and 560,000 people joining the job program in July.
Reality, people need an extra 2 or 3 jobs to keep up with inflation.

20 percent of small business in my town can’t hardly keep the doors open. Labor shortage! Every business has hiring now signs! Jobs are there. Just no takers! This is what happen when gov gives free money , welfare etc!

 

[Bigfatcock]

20 percent of small business in my town can’t hardly keep the doors open. Labor shortage! Every business has hiring now signs! Jobs are there. Just no takers! This is what happen when gov gives free money , welfare etc!

I’d say it’s a mix of government freebies, and people not wanting to work for low pay.

I mean, why work yourself into poverty at a minimum wage job?

 

[Snipe260]

I’d say it’s a mix of government freebies, and people not wanting to work for low pay.

I mean, why work yourself into poverty at a minimum wage job?

They offering 15 dollar and up starting pay!

 

[Bigfatcock]

They offering 15 dollar and up starting pay!

Poverty wages.

That’s $31,000 a year if you get 40 hours per week for all 52 weeks.

 

[Snipe260]

Poverty wages.

That’s $31,000 a year if you get 40 hours per week for all 52 weeks.

They need to learn a skill or go hungry!

 

[Bigfatcock]

They need to learn a skill or go hungry!

Lol.

Apparently, even the unskilled are needed and employers aren’t paying enough.

Interesting.

 

[NoDopes]

Lol.

Apparently, even the unskilled are needed and employers aren’t paying enough.

Interesting.

and if the customers aren't willing to buy your stuff at inflated prices to cover those higher wages, you go under anyway.
I guess a rising tide doesn't lift all boats.

 

[Bigfatcock]

and if the customers aren't willing to buy your stuff at inflated prices to cover those higher wages, you go under anyway.
I guess a rising tide doesn't lift all boats.

We’re fucked.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

We’re fucked.

We were as soon as they quadrupled our M1 over night. Bidens/dems additional printing and forcing energy cost way up just made it happen faster while keeping the sugar high going longer. (Energy is money). We actually could have maybe survived it or at least for a while, had the energy cost not been forces to more than double.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Read it and weep.

Inflation Calculator | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

What’s a dollar worth? How far does a past dollar stretch to equal the modern dollar? What would past prices be today?

www.minneapolisfed.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We’re fucked.

Survival of the fittest. Outlive 300 million and the world will be a better place.

 

[GMZ]

They need to learn a skill or go hungry!

It’s not just corporate America that’s losing old hands, the trades are too which is a bigger problem in my opinion. Many trades will start you out at 20+/hr and 4 years later top you out at 40+/hr. No debt and full benefits the whole time. I don’t understand why people aren’t trying to get in on it.

Just kidding yes I do they don’t want to actually work they just want to get paid to show up to work.

 

[Lightning8]

It’s not just corporate America that’s losing old hands, the trades are too which is a bigger problem in my opinion. Many trades will start you out at 20+/hr and 4 years later top you out at 40+/hr. No debt and full benefits the whole time. I don’t understand why people aren’t trying to get in on it.

Just kidding yes I do they don’t want to actually work they just want to get paid to show up to work.

I worked in Pulp and Paper. Paper Mills were staffed with a lot of older workers and they are all leaving in a surge - "grey tsunami". Saw first hand we were struggling to get skilled labor for turnarounds/outages as the older skilled labor retired.

 

[E. Bryant]

Raising truck prices into a recession is a bold move, especially with rate hikes still on the horizon:

Ford, GM Raise Truck Prices as They Fight Their Own Dealers' Price Gouging

Some F-150 models are up by $6000–$7000 for 2023, while Chevy has increased the MSRP of the Silverado three times so far this year.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[KZP]

Just get a 96 month loan. - Dealership

 

[E. Bryant]

I worked in Pulp and Paper. Paper Mills were staffed with a lot of older workers and they are all leaving in a surge - "grey tsunami". Saw first hand we were struggling to get skilled labor for turnarounds/outages as the older skilled labor retired.

In automotive, it's customary to address the first round of headcount reduction by doing buyouts and early retirement packages for older workers. It often backfires when the company eventually realizes those employees had valuable knowledge, and then some of them are brought back as contractors.

No small part of the present supply-chain situation is directly related to the talent and knowledge that was deliberately walked out the door over the previous 10-15 years.

 

[babyguppy]

They need to learn a skill or go hungry!

7.00 an hour in 1987 is now 18.14 in 2022.
7.00 an hour in 1987 was NOT a good paying job, that was unskilled labor dishwasher salary.

 

[babyguppy]

Still patiently waiting to buy peoples shit for pennies on the dollar.

I'll start saving it in buckets as soon as you put a price to it.

 

[Snipe260]

7.00 an hour in 1987 is now 18.14 in 2022.
7.00 an hour in 1987 was NOT a good paying job, that was unskilled labor dishwasher salary.

I don’t feel sorry for motherfuckers that don’t apply themselves! U got 2 choices, contribute to society or be a leach! I hate leaches!

 

[Snipe260]

It’s not just corporate America that’s losing old hands, the trades are too which is a bigger problem in my opinion. Many trades will start you out at 20+/hr and 4 years later top you out at 40+/hr. No debt and full benefits the whole time. I don’t understand why people aren’t trying to get in on it.

Just kidding yes I do they don’t want to actually work they just want to get paid to show up to work.

Bingo! Government aided sorry motherfuckers!

 

[Emerson0311]

7.00 an hour in 1987 is now 18.14 in 2022.
7.00 an hour in 1987 was NOT a good paying job, that was unskilled labor dishwasher salary.

This here is what is actually going on. My tradesman rate hasn’t gone up in 20 years. Businesses will not pay, but whine about lazy workers. The cost of doing business is way up too. The majority of the population are pussies that will fight amongst themselves while govtfucks us all in the ass. The acquiescence to Vacc mandates were a great demonstration of this. Citizens keep wanting young people to step up and go to war to protect the western way of life, but those of us who wore uniforms now realize it’s a fools game that leaves us broken while the yellow ribbon crowd votes left. Fuck them, bring on the suck so everyone gets a taste of reality.

 

[Snipe260]

This here is what is actually going on. My tradesman rate hasn’t gone up in 20 years. Businesses will not pay, but whine about lazy workers. The cost of doing business is way up too. The majority of the population are pussies that will fight amongst themselves while govtfucks us all in the ass. The acquiescence to Vacc mandates were a great demonstration of this. Citizens keep wanting young people to step up and go to war to protect the western way of life, but those of us who wore uniforms now realize it’s a fools game that leaves us broken while the yellow ribbon crowd votes left. Fuck them, bring on the suck so everyone gets a taste of reality.

You are correct! All will get a taste soon!

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It’s not just corporate America that’s losing old hands, the trades are too which is a bigger problem in my opinion. Many trades will start you out at 20+/hr and 4 years later top you out at 40+/hr. No debt and full benefits the whole time. I don’t understand why people aren’t trying to get in on it.

Just kidding yes I do they don’t want to actually work they just want to get paid to show up to work.

"Dirty Jobs" are just not as cool as working at McD's...........

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Raising truck prices into a recession is a bold move, especially with rate hikes still on the horizon:

Ford, GM Raise Truck Prices as They Fight Their Own Dealers' Price Gouging

Some F-150 models are up by $6000–$7000 for 2023, while Chevy has increased the MSRP of the Silverado three times so far this year.

www.caranddriver.com

A healthy portion of new vehicle sales go to the Government (Fed, State, City, County).... Pay attention to the vehicles parked in the motor pool lots of the US Forestry Service for one. I'm seeing those $85k F-250's being used where a Geo metro could be used instead. They are riding in style and 'We the people" are paying the bill.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I don’t feel sorry for motherfuckers that don’t apply themselves! U got 2 choices, contribute to society or be a leach! I hate leaches!

I would say that the person washing the dishes is contributing, but they’re still broke AF.

 

[NoDopes]

7.00 an hour in 1987 is now 18.14 in 2022.
7.00 an hour in 1987 was NOT a good paying job, that was unskilled labor dishwasher salary.

I call BS. Minimum wage back then was $3.75 and what most dishwashing, non-skill positions were paying.

"Dirty Jobs" are just not as cool as working at McD's...........

Yeah, up until you get shot in the neck for serving cold fries.

 

[Bradu]

They offering 15 dollar and up starting pay!

And that's for unskilled labor. They keep bumping up pay for entry level jobs which is making skilled labor think twice about their jobs. The hourly rates for the trades aren't going up near that fast for a lot of people.

 

[Bradu]

I don’t feel sorry for motherfuckers that don’t apply themselves! U got 2 choices, contribute to society or be a leach! I hate leaches!

Someone still has to do those jobs whether you like it or not.