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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

And that's for unskilled labor. They keep bumping up pay for entry level jobs which is making skilled labor think twice about their jobs. The hourly rates for the trades aren't going up near that fast for a lot of people.
Local "shop and rob" across from one of our paper mills paid more for night shift clerk than the paper mill starting wage. Eye opening.
 
Someone still has to do those jobs whether you like it or not.
I agree....... Many of these "unskilled" open positions are for someone to clean up after the lazy American's.
4 million + / - illegals came to America to "DO THE JOBS AMERICANS REFUSED TO DO"........
Where are they ?:unsure:
These openings need to be filled.
 
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I would say that the person washing the dishes is contributing, but they’re still broke AF.
By mid 2023 those knocking down that 6 figure income will be just as broke as the dishwasher. Broke is Broke....
 

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He likes people working those jobs, but doesn't want to pay them for it.

A lot of people feel that way. I'm not sure what the answer is, the past 2 years have shown us that we need people working in the food industry and that people have no desire to fill these positions since the covid handouts. I hardly eat out now because fast food became a 30 minute trip through the drive through for shitty food. Short staff at restaurants means shit service, mediocre food and still end up with an expensive ass meal.
 
A lot of people feel that way. I'm not sure what the answer is, the past 2 years have shown us that we need people working in the food industry and that people have no desire to fill these positions since the covid handouts. I hardly eat out now because fast food became a 30 minute trip through the drive through for shitty food. Short staff at restaurants means shit service, mediocre food and still end up with an expensive ass meal.
Get a slow cooker a rice cooker and this book............. Cheaper than fast food or a wife.
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A lot of people feel that way. I'm not sure what the answer is, the past 2 years have shown us that we need people working in the food industry and that people have no desire to fill these positions since the covid handouts. I hardly eat out now because fast food became a 30 minute trip through the drive through for shitty food. Short staff at restaurants means shit service, mediocre food and still end up with an expensive ass meal.

Yeah, I don't have the answer either. We were all told that our outsourced factory jobs would get replaced with service jobs, but it turns out that this was mostly 23 hours a week at $7.50/hr greeting customers at Applebee's. So now we've got single parents trying to scrape by working two or three of these jobs, all while paying $4.50/gal for fuel and $1000/yr for car insurance. And yep, the service and product sucks at many restaurants nowadays, which is one reason that we've cut way back on eating out.

I still don't see a reason to scorn those trying to make a living doing jobs and providing services that many people feel entitled to receive. I worked those jobs to put myself through school (as did virtually every successful person that I know), and I won't tolerate disrespect of someone who is trying to earn an honest living by bussing dishes, cleaning bathrooms, mopping floors, and all the other chores we don't expect to do for ourselves.
 
You have spotted the "tip of the iceberg"... Check back in 12 months with an updated chart. Will make for good conversation.
You know, I noticed in December last year that I got an across the board credit limit increase. Thought is was odd.

Now I wonder if it happened to everyone.
 
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I worked in Pulp and Paper. Paper Mills were staffed with a lot of older workers and they are all leaving in a surge - "grey tsunami". Saw first hand we were struggling to get skilled labor for turnarounds/outages as the older skilled labor retired.
I semi-retired at 53yo when the mandatory masks and covid tests were widespread among employers. I'll go back to work when private industry stops supporting the covid scare tactics of the government. Complying with this crap just brings on more of it.

If the majority of working folks were smart enough to have a few years of emergency funds stashed away, they could all have given the covid mandating employers the finger and sat out of the economy until things returned to normal, because it would have to.......

When enough pilots at Southwest Airlines were going to sit out over mandates, everyone saw how quickly upper management changed their minds about the vax mandates.
 
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I semi-retired at 53yo when the mandatory masks and covid tests were widespread among employers. I'll go back to work when private industry stops supporting the covid scare tactics of the government. Complying with this crap just brings on more of it.

If the majority of working folks were smart enough to have a few years of emergency funds stashed away, they could all have given the covid mandating employers the finger and sat out of the economy until things returned to normal, because it would have to.......

When enough pilots at Southwest Airlines were going to sit out over mandates, everyone saw how quickly upper management changed their minds about the vax mandates.
We control the narrative! But we won’t!🤷‍♂️
 
A lot of people feel that way. I'm not sure what the answer is, the past 2 years have shown us that we need people working in the food industry and that people have no desire to fill these positions since the covid handouts. I hardly eat out now because fast food became a 30 minute trip through the drive through for shitty food. Short staff at restaurants means shit service, mediocre food and still end up with an expensive ass meal.
that is a painful truth. Spent 20 minutes at a local Whataburger before driving off in frustration. 2 rows of 3 cars ahead of me sandwiched in. Would have bailed after the first 5 minutes, but couldn't get an opening. I keep knocking them off my list of places to go, but I now have more no go areas than go to spots.

Surely some of these places are going shutter with service at this level. Normally I would just grill at home and call it good, but even that is getting pricier. 100 dollar brisket, 1.50 squash, butter double or 3x what it was prior to covid. Things are getting out of hand.
 
that is a painful truth. Spent 20 minutes at a local Whataburger before driving off in frustration. 2 rows of 3 cars ahead of me sandwiched in. Would have bailed after the first 5 minutes, but couldn't get an opening. I keep knocking them off my list of places to go, but I now have more no go areas than go to spots.

Surely some of these places are going shutter with service at this level. Normally I would just grill at home and call it good, but even that is getting pricier. 100 dollar brisket, 1.50 squash, butter double or 3x what it was prior to covid. Things are getting out of hand.
Two dozen eggs two loaves of bread 2 pounds of bacon and a pound of butter will keep a guy fed for a long time.
 
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Two dozen eggs two loaves of bread 2 pounds of bacon and a pound of butter will keep a guy fed for a long time.
You have opened the door to discuss a few topics.
I have been canning different things. Also putting a few home made heat and eat meals in my freezer. "Portions" for me are a challenge. If I eat before I get really hungry, one pint is a meal that will keep me going for a while, as in 1 pint Mason jar with half beef and half with potatoes in a heavy sauce. Just doing some homework in case I have to ration my food stores. Normally I can not eat an entire 1 quart Mason jar filled with meat and spuds and would have to figure out how to keep it once opened.
Thoughts ?
 
wow, I beat Hobo to the post ;) link
I believe
Restaurants (service and hospitality) are facing the largest wage increases and productivity hasn't increased. Your waiter/waitress is slower and highly unmotivated. (at least on my side of town :) )

"The productivity of the business sector fell 2.5 percent compared with a year ago, the largest decline ever recorded in data going back to the first quarter of 1948, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The decline comes from a 1.5 increase in economic output and a 4.1 percent increase in total hours worked."​
Unit labor costs jumped 10.8 percent in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting a 5.7-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 4.6-percent decrease in productivity. Economists had forecast labor costs to be up by 9.3 percent. In the first quarter, unit labor costs were up 12.6 percent.​
The decline in productivity came from the services sector, which is still rebounding from the pandemic​
 
wow, I beat Hobo to the post ;) link
I believe
Restaurants (service and hospitality) are facing the largest wage increases and productivity hasn't increased. Your waiter/waitress is slower and highly unmotivated. (at least on my side of town :) )

"The productivity of the business sector fell 2.5 percent compared with a year ago, the largest decline ever recorded in data going back to the first quarter of 1948, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The decline comes from a 1.5 increase in economic output and a 4.1 percent increase in total hours worked."​
Unit labor costs jumped 10.8 percent in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting a 5.7-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 4.6-percent decrease in productivity. Economists had forecast labor costs to be up by 9.3 percent. In the first quarter, unit labor costs were up 12.6 percent.​
The decline in productivity came from the services sector, which is still rebounding from the pandemic​
There is no need to rush...... We have months and months of bad news in front of us.
I'm enjoying the deflation thoughts of the other members here....
When I think of "deflation" it's like walking out in the morning and finding a flat tire on your vehicle... Slow leak
At the rate the Government and Markets are dealing with it..... this is going to be like a blow out at 100 mph.....

An example of the problem:

Dow jumps 400 points, Nasdaq surges 2% as investors cheer lighter-than-expected inflation report​

 
There is no need to rush...... We have months and months of bad news in front of us.
I'm enjoying the deflation thoughts of the other members here....
When I think of "deflation" it's like walking out in the morning and finding a flat tire on your vehicle... Slow leak
At the rate the Government and Markets are dealing with it..... this is going to be like a blow out at 100 mph.....

An example of the problem:

Dow jumps 400 points, Nasdaq surges 2% as investors cheer lighter-than-expected inflation report​

I disagree on deflation.
It's like walking out and finding a 5 dollar bill next to your flat tire. Always mixed emotions :)
 
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Firms that have announced layoffs since the beginning of August include:
  • Malwarebytes employees are posting on LinkedIn about layoffs at the Bay Area-based cybersecurity firm. Layoffstracker.com reports 125 people were affected by the cuts.
  • Meditation app Calm is laying off 20% of its staff, according to an internal memo obtained by the Wall Street Journal.
  • Warby Parker, an online retailer of prescription glasses, is laying off 63 corporate employees, 2% of its overall workforce and 15% of its corporate staff.
  • Video game developer Jam City, which has offices across the U.S. and Canada, is laying off about 200 employees.
  • LinkedIn members shared about staffing cuts made at other companies: real estate tech platform Doma, which also laid off staff in May; cannabis tech Weedmaps; childcare management app brightwheel; analytics software platform Sisu, and payments processor Fiserv.
 
From ZeroHedge
The US federal government’s deficit spending and debt are the most significant factors driving this money printing, resulting in drastic price increases.
The US federal government has the biggest debt in the history of the world. And it’s continuing to grow at a rapid, unstoppable pace.

 
Worldwide

BEIJING — China reported data for July that came in well below expectations.
Retail sales grew by 2.7% in July from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That’s well below the 5% growth forecast by a Reuters poll, and down from growth of 3.1% in June. Within retail sales, catering, furniture and construction-related categories saw declines.
Sales of autos, one of the largest categories by value, rose by 9.7%. The gold, silver and jewelry category saw sales rise the most, up by 22.1%.

 
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As I’ve stated 847,000 times, if you don’t own a house then you need to buy one right fucking now. At any price. Waiting for a 50% housing drop like 2008 is a fools dream.

Big money is chasing yield, and real estate is it.

Rent income in perpetuity, that will increase yearly+asset appreciation= You can’t compete.

America will be a nation of renters in the very near future.
 
This isn’t surprising. But 90% is a hell of a cut this early in the game.
 
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Another obvious sign of the recession taking hold. Contractors are not renting as much equipment. For sure contractors won't be buying any equipment. History repeating.
United Rentals stock price target cut to $355 from $420 at KeyBanc Capital
big.chart
 
“Unfortunately, what’s good for the American worker is bad for the Fed’s attempt to being inflation back down to 2% and this will complicate their job and cause them to raise rates higher and for longer than many people currently expect,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Investor Alliance.