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So, who got unemployed today? 2024 Edition

D

D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷

Banned x2 🤪
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Minuteman
Sep 11, 2014
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Yuma, AZ
I keep reading about the economic repercussions of the money printer, the soft landing while also reading about lots of jobs going unfilled.

I exist in a vacuum and have distilled my network down to a select few high value individuals.

So far I’ve not had a single friend lose their job but several have jumped ship for more money and better lifestyle.

Figured I’d ask here.

What’s REALLY going on out there? Are you getting fired or promoted? What’s the job market like out there.
 
My buddy was laid off from his 6 figure job in Q4 last year along with a handful of others. He's been looking for work even at a significant pay reduction and nothing yet. Not a lot of listings either.

He was one of those that jumped ship for more pay and it lasted a little over a year. The company even moved to a new location, new building, lots of investments back into the business. He knows 6 other people that all had a similar situation that happened in Q4 last year. All left for more money and to large companies only to be laid off about a year later due to cut backs and such.

This is in So Cal but it seems many places are clamping down on hiring anticipating the storm.
 
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The US manufacturing index has been declining for 14 straight months and it has begun to spill over into the services sector in earnest. The Empire Manufacturing Survey was the third worst on record and the New Orders Index as the second worst on record. Order backlogs have been decreasing which means new orders are not keeping the same pace as before. As that backlog gets worked through more layoffs will occur. Credit card and car loan delinquency rates are sky high as well, so the consumer is tapped out. This translates into reduced retail sales. There isn't enough money left to spend in savings and this will translate into lower revenues and increased layoffs. None of this happens immediately; this has been a slow crawl since early last year and will continue.

Even if the Fed lowers rates the banks have to lend so money can be created in the system. Until they loosen lending a lot of businesses that are overextended or have poor revenue models will cut back or fail. This lack of money creation is causing real issues for all companies, not just the poorly run ones.
 
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I need a machinist and a welder pretty bad, but don't have any qualified applicants. Or at least ones that aren't convicted felons :rolleyes:
We pay well above average for the area and provide lunch everyday, so, I don't guess anybody's looking for a job these days.
 
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I jumped ship in late 2022 for nearly double the money, not including bonus, and got let go 6 months later for non-job related reasons. Was out of work for 11 months while life sorted itself. Didn't have much issue getting interviews, but needed some accommodations not everyone was amenable to. Ended up with 4 offers. Got a promotion and an extra 15k base, with guaranteed minimum bonus. Company that let me go is still asking if I want to come back.

On the other hand, a good friend of mine has been looking since I jumped ship from our mutual employer in 2022 and hasn't found anything, or hasn't gotten offers. I'm actually surprised because he is pretty good.

Tech is paying well right now but there are far more applicants than jobs and employers are having their pick of the litter. Even with that, I've heard companies in our field are having trouble finding highly qualified candidates. Especially the smaller and mid-size where overall, legit tech chops are more important than a specific skill. For example, I went through 3 rounds, over 7 hours, of interviews with one large company who decided not to move forward because I don't know Python, which I told them before the first interview. I'm capable in Bash, Perl and C99, and mostly understand Java and know G1GC, so learning isn't an issue for me, but they wanted it out of the gate.
 
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kindabitey said:
I need a machinist and a welder pretty bad, but don't have any qualified applicants. Or at least ones that aren't convicted felons :rolleyes:
We pay well above average for the area and provide lunch everyday, so, I don't guess anybody's looking for a job these days.
Click to expand...
I am a Machinist with over 25 years experience. Where are you located?
 
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I have never had so many truck drivers and equipment operators applying to work.

One guy I hired full time used to have his own truck and hauled containers out of the port. His words he’s never seen it so dead in all his life at the port.


Things are slowing down in a big way.
 
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kindabitey said:
I need a machinist and a welder pretty bad, but don't have any qualified applicants. Or at least ones that aren't convicted felons :rolleyes:
We pay well above average for the area and provide lunch everyday, so, I don't guess anybody's looking for a job these days.
Click to expand...
Here’s what my last “welder” did to my floor during a 30
Minute job
Was his second day. And last after I seent this.

49CFCCCE-B7BA-4CC9-9D94-D4D66D1023FB.jpeg
FD99ECD8-51AB-46BD-A525-2DE5DAE5AD63.jpeg


Those are torch splatter marks and the grinder marks are 1/8-3/8 deep


066CBEBB-E9FC-4AAE-A658-563E3A813862.jpeg
DB214044-755F-4614-90E3-10D153792DD4.jpeg
Atleast the welds look good right
 
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Fortunately for me I have a very secure job (state employee) bad news don’t get paid shit really lol.

I have been looking at jobs for like two years and cannot find anything worth a damn that has a salary worth me leaving benefits behind and that’s secure.

But then again with Panda Express paying kitchen workers $22 an hour wtf.

I have been looking and seeing so many deliver drivers (Uber, Lyft, Pizza Hut) all driving these big ass diesel trucks and nice new trucks. I’m like how the hell are they affording this? Crazy.

BUT then again if I didn’t have a safe full of guns and a room full of reloading equipment I could probably be driving whatever I wanted as well.
 
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I've been in sales for the same company for 18 years. Every year I have shown growth, some years double digit, but this year is looking pretty flat, maybe 2-3%

There are other people in the organization that are way down, as much as 10-20%
 
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I work for one of the two largest package delivery companies in the US and our loads, or the lack there of, often are an indication of where the economy will be in 6-9 months. Loads are way down as people are not buying and shipping as much because they don’t have the disposable income due to high inflation of necessities. If our load factors are right, it’s going to get interesting later this year if not sooner. There was an early retirement buy out recently for my position, but I wasn’t senior enough to get it; I’m too young anyway. So many people signed up for it that they retired an additional 10% over the original number they wanted gone. My hope is the bottom falls out before the election so the only thing Trump has to say is, “It’s the economy stupid, my economy or the democrats economy, you pick”.

Like Army Jerry use to say, “Buy more ammo”!
 
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KYAggie said:
I work for one of the two largest package delivery companies in the US and our loads, or the lack there of, often are an indication of where the economy will be in 6-9 months. Loads are way down as people are not buying and shipping as much because they don’t have the disposable income due to high inflation of necessities. If our load factors are right, it’s going to get interesting later this year if not sooner. There was an early retirement buy out recently for my position, but I wasn’t senior enough to get it; I’m too young anyway. So many people signed up for it that they retired an additional 10% over the original number they wanted gone. My hope is the bottom falls out before the election so the only thing Trump has to say is, “It’s the economy stupid, my economy or the democrats economy, you pick”.

Like Army Jerry use to say, “Buy more ammo”!
Click to expand...
Seeing similar on the rails, not as much volume running. Will see what the over all Q4 and FY23 numbers were here in a month, but been tracking double digit drops in consumer goods.

We’re not laying off and barely hiring to hold water, but that’s because of the hiring freeze hole they dug over Covid when we hit record resignations.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
I retired in December, almost no one wants to make $160,000 a year (with overtime) and live in the middle of nowhere, they are looking for 11 operators, 10 electricians and 10 mechanics. It will take forever to fill those jobs.
Click to expand...
What company and where?
 
This is why I don't return the shopping cart to the proper location. I'm providing work security for someone. No thanks required.
 
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EddieNFL said:
My wife keeps threatening to fire me, but I’m the best employee she has. Also, she has 36 years training invested. I don’t know why she complains. I haven’t embarrassed her in public since the holidays.
Click to expand...
Well, I mean Monday was a national “holiday”.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
I retired in December, almost no one wants to make $160,000 a year (with overtime) and live in the middle of nowhere, they are looking for 11 operators, 10 electricians and 10 mechanics. It will take forever to fill those jobs.
Click to expand...
I'm betting Columbia Generating station.
 
I are an electrician and the recession of 2008 was tough. Companies competed against us for school contracts and were winning because they were averaging 300,000 below our bids. And we figured out why. These other companies were not used to doing schools and were missing the requirement that the electrician runs conduit and back boxes for fire alarm and data devices and phones. How do I know this? After getting laid off from a company, I worked through temps and and another company that had loaned me out to a local competitor who was now doing a new school.

They had no idea who I was or that I have a big, fat license. And that I had, since 1983, at least 11 years of doing schools in the DFW area. I was assigned to help the guy who was in charge of the section of the building that has classrooms. At the time, framers in schools would often "one-side" the walls. Stick up some studs and put drywall on one side. (3 hr drywall, for fire rating.)

He thought he was caught up and on this job, the framer did complete frame without using drywall. I told him he was going to need 2 1 inch chases and 2 3/4" chases over each class room door for class A fire alarm (if one signal path gets damage, the other path is a failsafe) and for phone and data. It could take one guy one day to catch all the class rooms up. Why is that important?

If you wait until later and have to cut through drywall, it is going to be crowded with all the other knuckle draggers in the hall. And, if you cut drywall after the wall has been taped and bedded, then you have to seal your penetrations with "fire pookey," a silicone kind of goop that is fire rated. If you do the chases now with no drywall, the tape and bedders will get it sealed later. He told me that he did not have to do that. He said it was not in the contract.

I said, "Would you like to make a bet?"

I went to the page for fire alarms and also one for technology. Line item #1 on the call-outs. "Electrical contractor is responsible for all conduits and back boxes for devices on this page."

He disagreed.

Point being, the job market can be flooded by arrogant snots who don't know have of what they think they know.

It was 2 years of hanging on by the thinnest of threads until this job as office manager for an electrical contractor came along. Even so, our work is slow because the industry is slow. People are scared of the Biden economy and the outrageous interest rates on loans for this work.

I have not been laid off yet and I might be better off retiring if that happened. I am older now and that big, fat license makes it hard to get hired anywhere.
 
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It seems like a lot of job postings in the tech arena, but not a lot of hiring. Companies that are posting and recruiting are being very selective in who they actually hire. Lots of applicants for every posting, so the hiring companies are also looking to low ball salary offerings for people with lots of experience.

It used to be that the Amazon truck would stop at just about every house in my neighborhood, but now it's much less stops
 
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LuvDog said:
It used to be that the Amazon truck would stop at just about every house in my neighborhood, but now it's much less stops
Click to expand...
Look at the Carboard Box Index or St. Luis Fed Data (FRED). Production of cardboard boxes are on a downward trend and it hasn't been this low since the GFC of 2008-2010. This is considered to be a leading indicator of where the economy is going due to the fact that many items use cardboard dunnage as packaging - raw materials, intermediate and finished goods. If production is down that means that orders from manufacturers to ship their goods in is down and declining. This translates into the shipping and retail industries' activity and revenue. The consumer represents a huge portion of the economy, and if box production is down it means demand is also down and will continue to be so as this is a supply chain item with a lead time in addition to production lead times for goods. Pretty easy to figure out the secondary and tertiary knock-on effects in the economy.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Industrial Production: Manufacturing: Non-Durable Goods: Paperboard Container (NAICS = 32221)

Graph and download economic data for Industrial Production: Manufacturing: Non-Durable Goods: Paperboard Container (NAICS = 32221) (IPN32221S) from Jan 1972 to Dec 2023 about nondurable goods, IP, production, goods, industry, indexes, and USA.
fred.stlouisfed.org


The other thing that is very telling is that distillates inventories are climbing - jet fuel and gasoline. People aren't moving about like before, so demand is down. It aint the EV's that are causing this - it is the same economic conditions that are causing the carboard box production to decline. The consumer is tapped out. This translates into job reductions.

This Week In Petroleum Distillate Section - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Heating Oil, Diesel Fuel, and Distillate Fuel Oil Production, Imports, Stocks, Supply, Wholesale and Residential Prices, Weekly On-Highway Diesel Prices, Data and Analysis from the Energy Information Administration.
www.eia.gov www.eia.gov

With record high credit balances and defaults by the consumer this isn't over by any stretch. Its just getting started and all industries will be affected.
 
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My brother got fired last week, had been at the job for about 6 months, moved halfway across the country and financed a $480k house. He was making well into 6 figures, but for some dumb reason went and told the people that made the decision to hire him that they weren't paying him what he thought they would based on what they said during the interview (I'm sure they told him a pay range and he assumed the top of the range) and that he didn't like working there. They made the decision for him and let him go.

This was after he was let go from a similar job last spring (which he also moved 4 states away for).
 
I have been officially retired for almost three years, and unofficially retired (I just stopped working) since about ten years ago. I STILL get 1- 3 emails from aviation maintenance recruiters weekly, wanting me to come back to work.

If you, or anyone you know, or especially a young person wanting a very employable career, look at aviation maintenance. The airlines cant find enough qualified people. I think the work force is getting old & aging out of the system.

I think the highest pay I made was about $170,000 per year as a civilian contractor, or maybe working for Boeing. I actually went back to work last year for about 6 months, just because the pay was too good to ignore... The lowest was Army pay, but that was what got the ball rolling.
 
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Some industries went on a shopping spree because of supply chain fear and uncertainty. Now we see all that unwinding and companies aren’t doing much buying beyond what is absolutely necessary much less any major capex. We certainly aren’t…

The focus is on working capital reduction and cost controls in preparation for the other shoe(s) to drop…
 
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PJC said:
Some industries went on a shopping spree because of supply chain fear and uncertainty. Now we see all that unwinding and companies aren’t doing much buying beyond what is absolutely necessary much less any major capex. We certainly aren’t…

The focus is on working capital reduction and cost controls in preparation for the other shoe(s) to drop…
Click to expand...
Yup. My customers are doing the same as they need to get that cash back out of inventory now. If they wait they may very well be faced with trying to sell product into a deflationary environment which will further reduce income due to reduced margins and the already present reduced sales. What I am seeing is that companies are trying to move to a more nimble and almost JIT-centric model. I was advising one of my customers this week to forego blanket POs for 2024 until later in the year so that any dip in COGS associated with the bill of materials can be grabbed. Between now and then, keep inventories lean and purchase into the declining prices of raw stock. I'm not the only one doing this.
 
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WeiserBucks said:
What line of work?
Click to expand...

Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
Click to expand...
I'm in the same industry.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
Click to expand...

If it's the middle of nowhere Montana I'd be down.

I have zero interest in moving states again, I've already left and come back twice.
 
openings in Montana

www.usajobs.gov

High Voltage Electrician Apprentice

This position is part of the WAPA-DSW-Desert Southwest. As a High Voltage Electrician Apprentice, you will serve as an apprentice lineman and enter training to become a Journeyman Level High Voltage Electrician after a four year training period.<br> <br> <b>**This is not a remote position. The...
www.usajobs.gov

www.usajobs.gov

High Voltage Electrician (Lineman) Apprentice

This position is part of the WAPA-UGP-Upper Great Plains, Department of Energy. As a High Voltage Electrician (Lineman) Apprentice, you will serve as an apprentice lineman and enter training to become a Journeyman Level High Voltage Electrician (Lineman) after a four year training period.<br>...
www.usajobs.gov

These are awesome for younger guys or recently ets'd vets.


There are at least three powerplants owed by the Army Corp or BOR in Montana. And a couple are seriously in the middle of nowhere. Like Ft. Peck.
 
lariat said:
Yup. My customers are doing the same as they need to get that cash back out of inventory now. If they wait they may very well be faced with trying to sell product into a deflationary environment which will further reduce income due to reduced margins and the already present reduced sales. What I am seeing is that companies are trying to move to a more nimble and almost JIT-centric model. I was advising one of my customers this week to forego blanket POs for 2024 until later in the year so that any dip in COGS associated with the bill of materials can be grabbed. Between now and then, keep inventories lean and purchase into the declining prices of raw stock. I'm not the only one doing this.
Click to expand...
I've retired now, but my last job was in the power semiconductor industry. We'd strongly encourage blanket P/O's. Most customers that had experienced prior incidences of "allocation" would usually issue blankets. Some wouldn't. We'd explain to them that when allocation hits, they'd be sitting in the back of the bus in terms of deliveries.

Some customers were repeat offenders. It got to the point where it was difficult to keep from laughing in their faces when they "Demanded that we deliver product to them". We'd politely explain that when we were recommending 9 months ago that all customers issue blankets, those were the customers that were getting product today.

We'd then be told "that we were putting them out of business". We'd respond by telling them that "no, you're putting yourselves out of business". The next thing they'd say was "we'll just go place orders with your competitors", they'll ship us parts". "Yes, they'll ship you product in 60 weeks, our leadtime is 48 weeks. But, please, go right ahead and "give" those orders to our competitors".

It took some customers a long time to learn hard lessons.........
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
Click to expand...
Whereabouts? I'd be down for moving to a free state
 
Threadcutter308 said:
I've retired now, but my last job was in the power semiconductor industry. We'd strongly encourage blanket P/O's. Most customers that had experienced prior incidences of "allocation" would usually issue blankets. Some wouldn't. We'd explain to them that when allocation hits, they'd be sitting in the back of the bus in terms of deliveries.

Some customers were repeat offenders. It got to the point where it was difficult to keep from laughing in their faces when they "Demanded that we deliver product to them". We'd politely explain that when we were recommending 9 months ago that all customers issue blankets, those were the customers that were getting product today.

We'd then be told "that we were putting them out of business". We'd respond by telling them that "no, you're putting yourselves out of business". The next thing they'd say was "we'll just go place orders with your competitors", they'll ship us parts". "Yes, they'll ship you product in 60 weeks, our leadtime is 48 weeks. But, please, go right ahead and "give" those orders to our competitors".

It took some customers a long time to learn hard lessons.........
Click to expand...
This is very good advice in a good economic environment. I have customers that pull the same shit. They get expedite fees. For the one I am talking about I know their inventory and usage metrics. I sit with them and help manage the inventory I make for them, which includes some mutual planning. For them I am willing to make these concessions as they are a good customer and pay on time, especially in this environment. I try to help my customers beyond fulfilling orders. And you are right about the whole "hurry up now" crap. JIT only makes that worse, especially if the customer expects you to hold inventory that has a high chance of rev changes and the PO says that they reserve the right to cancel the PO. And if I look them up on Dunns and they have poor financial info, they get no blanket POs. Mutual trust is important.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
Click to expand...
It's not just the hands on people in short supply, getting good technical staff is proving to be a bitch also. I was a power plant electrician, went to the dark side and am now an electrical engineer.
 
i know 2 guys that own machine shops in tucson. both specialized in their fields. both slow as fuck right now. one in aerospace lost tons of work when covid hit and it hasnt come back. takes jobs just to keep guys working but treads water. not sure how many he’s laid off.

the other was busy up til 3-4rd quarter 2022. now he’s down to 3 guys, from 6-7 i think it was.

i’m in the printing industry for golf course shit. we have been cranking since 2019 and covid was a booster. might be slowing a little though but won’t know more until the snow melts across the nation.
 
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lonegunman762x51 said:
Powerplant Operations.

The problem with most powerplants is their locations are usually in the middle of nowhere.

No matter where the electricity comes from, it will require mechanics, electricians, operators, dispatchers, instrument techs and linemen and they always seem to be in short supply.
Click to expand...
What neck of the woods?
 
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