Maggie’s The Dollar Slide

[oregon]

This could make it harder to buy guns:

While gun sales are up and grew 15% in March 2011.

"The U.S. dollar fell Thursday to its lowest point since the summer of 2008, but officials aren't showing signs that they are alarmed by the currency's descent or acting to stem it."... "The falling dollar could be contributing to inflation risks today. A weak dollar makes imported products, such as oil, more expensive to U.S. consumers. The latest declines in the dollar have also contributed to the rising price of other global commodities, such as gold. On Thursday, gold hit a nominal record of $1,530.80 per ounce, up $14.20". And more is at:

Officials Unfazed by Dollar Slide

As the dollar falls in value compared to other currencies it makes it harder for those in the USA to buy foreign goods or travel. Kinda sucks for an old guy who remembers how it was - we didn't know how good we had it. The way it is going China or another is taking over as 'the' world power as it shifts away from the USA.

 

[Evolution 9]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Yes we are slipping fast. I very much hate to see it but there is a bright side.

In a short while, all the people with their head in the sand will have to wake up. This crap about how america is so different from every country in history that historical patterns don't apply to us will stop. The insane idea that we can spend our way out of debt will be crushed. The retarded notion that there is such a thing as a "consumer economy" will be crushed. Manliness will once again be exalted rather than vilified.

Hard times create hard people, and it's about time we harden the *&$%! up.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Every time the dollar becomes cheaper vs a foreign currency, American goods become easier/cheaper for the folks who get paid in those currency to buy. Essentially, it makes foreign tariffs opposing the entry of American goods to other shores drop; while making foreign goods less attractive to Americans at the same time.

Meanwhile, foreign indebtedness is repaid to them in devalued dollars. All those T-Billst those Euros and Arabs hold, China, too, are now devalued. Those F-16's just got more expensive, if they're paying in T-Bills; but the Boeing 777's they might be thinking of ordering for actual dollars will be cheaper than they were yesterday.

So there is some silver in that cloud's lining.

Too bad we buy our oil offshore, but otherwise, it helps our trade deficits. It may even help put more Americans back into productive jobs.

For Americans buying American goods, it breaks even, but more of them might be employed well enough producing goods for export to stimulate domestic trade.

So; buy American, as if that wasn't good advice any other time, too.

Now, If we could get some folks heads out of their butts in Washington, maybe somebody would be leaning harder on OPEC to get their thumbs out of the spouts, and maybe reacquainting them with just how long the American memory is, and just how much we eventually, inevitibly get pissed off at being blackmailed. When one revaluates the artificially inflated cost of oil, the trade deficits might even become, dare one say, a trade surplus. Wish I had an oil faucet so I could regulate my own personal trade balance; but silly me, I'm not an Arab, am I?

I mean, here we are, with lots and lots of forces and equipment in very nearly the right place, and wouldn't you know it? Washington's pointing the guns at the wrong people. Again.

And then...

The thing about a lot of the mandates government has been laying across the average productive American's broad economic shoulders is that a whole lot of them are really little more than expensive luxuries put upon those shoulders to advance some activist airheads theories. Once they get laid on thick enough, the folks with the shoulders tend to wake up, look around, and get bent out of shape about those mandates.

In some ways, this economic situation could turn out to be a valuable collective lesson in the differences between necessities and luxuries.

For one example, SETI got defunded this week. Although I mildly favor the idea, I also think that at times like this, such ideas can wait while us ordinary folks get their mortgages paid up. ET, hold the phone...

Or; I like clean air as much as the next guy, but just how much can I afford this week?

Employing the tax code in order to blackmail Americans into fundng factional initiatives can also tend to piss folks off. But folks can die from air pollution you say? I agree, and they can also die from a lot of other things, but Uncle Sam doesn;t seem to hold them in quite the same esteem. Like, for instance, folsk can die even quicker by starvation caused by some employer favoring illegal alien employees, yet Uncle Sam's attention seems to be turned elswhere; like staving off that pesky incessant flood of foreign made assault shotguns.

There must come a time when equitable values need to be re-established and the carte blanche approval of ever increasing baised imperatives needs to be curtailed. IMHO, perhaps that time has already come and gone, and it's maybe even time to strike a more equitible balance.

In other words, the time is here for the other shoe to drop.

Greg

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Now, If we could get some folks heads out of their butts in Washington, maybe somebody would be leaning harder on OPEC to get their thumbs out of the spouts, and maybe reacquainting them with just how long the American memory is, and just how much we eventually, inevitibly get pissed off at being blackmailed. When one revaluates the artificially inflated cost of oil, the trade deficits might even become, dare one say, a trade surplus. Wish I had an oil faucet so I could regulate my own personal trade balance; but silly me, I'm not an Arab, am I?

I mean, here we are, with lots and lots of forces and equipment in very nearly the right place, and wouldn't you know it? Washington's pointing the guns at the wrong people. Again.
Greg </div></div>

I don't think trying to commandeer the oil in the Mid-East would solve any problems. It just might spark WW3 in fact which I'm sure you'll agree would be even worse for our budget.

What makes you think the price of oil is artificially inflated? What should it be? And explain how that number is derived.

oil prices are a function of cost of supply, quantity of supply, demand and the pricing mechanism.

The cost of supply is rising, fast. Look into something called Peak Oil. So the available quantity will be brought to market at increasingly higher cost per barrel. That's not a phenomenon of policy. The demand is not decreasing either here in the US or abroad and I believe China is about to or has surpassed the US in that rank of the world's greatest user of energy.

The pricing mechanism is the main cause of any 'artificial' elements and for that you can thank the relentless pursuit of profit at the trading desks of investment banks at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and other bastions of ignoble profits.

In your post where things are the fault of many - Washington and Arabs - you chose to give the consumers of all that oil a free pass. The explosion of SUVs, the retarded Hummer and other oil/petroleum product heavy users. The lack of public transport in high density areas etc. It's not all a function of foreigners and our policy towards them.

The US and Allieds did a deal with the despotic heads of the oil rich nations. We'll support your rule - however unjust and undemocratic - in return, you allow our oil companies to set up the exploration and refining infrastructure for your oil. There were a couple of hiccups in an otherwise long standing, mutually beneficial relationship.

It's benefited the ruling families in the Mid-East and it's benefit the oil companies, the American people who enjoyed unlimited and mostly very cheap access to fuel and helped drive a standard of living for the common American unseen in the rest of the world or history.

Now that party's coming to an end thanks to Peak Oil.

Disclaimer/Credentials for the above: I've worked in commodity trading firms, my family history is in the oil business and I invest as an individual in the futures market for oil, gold and financial ETFs.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

The only person talking about commandeering oil here isn't me.

One might just as easily argue that the only thing that's been keeping an oil war from starting has been our government's duplicity in submitting the western economy to usurious oil source manipulation. Or am I incorrect here? Or, do you feel the current arangement is all that commendably equitable?

All I'm saying is that there's unrest, there's a quid pro quo, and our quid should be a bit harder to get our agreement on. Softly, softly, catchee oil barrel. You want 'X', we want more oil released to market. It's a very simple equation.

You want to see the equation your way, by all means do. Just don't be so quick to call this kettle black because you choose to hold a conflicting view.

Oil prices are purely speculative, based on supply and demand. Anybody who actually thinks costs are based on production expenses are not watching the markets as well I would expect someone with a commodities trading background would be.

We the people, and our economy, have been held hostage by an artificially and deliberately manipulated oil shortage. All I am saying is that it's time to revisit that bargain.

I'm also saying that a lot of what one domestic camp has held the rest of this Nation at bay on is not quite so attractive a set of values now that the time has come to separate wants from needs.

My ox has been getting gored for at least long enough, now it's the other ox's turn.

The American consumer has been unwise, yes. That will change as this current economic situation's implications sink in. The bill always gets paid by the patsy. But laying blame for this situation at their feet is a bit much. Same is true for the banking industry. The watchdog has been prowling in other yards. Time for a new watchdog.

Being mindful of previous discourse between us two, I'm leaving the floor open and reserving, probably curtailing, further response. I don't want this to turn into something we'd all rather do without here.

With genuine respect;

Greg

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Its close to impossible to do as you suggest simply because we've become the addict to the pusher despite having been the ones who set the pusher up in his trade. We try and 'force' any issue there and they'll call our bluff in a hearbeat. Plus there is now competition for the status of global kingmaker - China. We're not the only show in town anymore. Still the best, but not alone. China is another area where the US - politicians, business and consumers - have set up our own fall but that's another issue I suppose.

I don't disagree with your premise that we've reached an untenable position. I however don't think the solution lies in bargaining harder for more oil. This is because the price of oil is not purely speculaiton. If cheap oil could be drilled for cheaply you wouldn't have deep see drilling which is horrifically difficult and expensive. Peak Oil is real. My trading account suggests that I've been doing a good job of understanding price dynamics. However, let me suggest this - there is a reason why over the last few year oil has become the best market vehicle to hedge against inflation/$ devaluation - even over gold. It's because it's being recognized that it's intrinsic value is rising due to scarcity of cheap oil. It's a circular relationship. Do the peaks of the oil prices have their roots in pure speculation - yes, absolutely - but speculation does not account for the long-term trend. Rather, speculation identifies trends and in sharp instances, magnifies them. Blaming it all on speculators is the remit of politicians and rabble rousers.

I fully agree, America was forced into an oil addiction from which there is no easy escape. However, it was an addiction happily entered into. Every administration since Nixon proclaimed a desire to reach oil independence and every administration has failed. The lobbyists were too good, there were too many jobs at stake, it wasn't the right time and there wasn't the right technology etc. Plus the people simply didn't want it. Gas was dirt cheap!

I do not believe and have seen no evidence of artificial oil shortages to elevate price such as the ones we have with diamonds. I would be interested in seeing any evidence you have on this.

No one entity desires all the blame, but there is plenty of it to go around for sure - including the car companies who implicitly forwent the research into fuel efficient cars for decades...

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Every addiction enters a terminal phase.

Actually, I wouldn't want to provoke the Mideast to do anything, at all.

As for America taking its medicine, I think it's long overdue. It isn't paint that's got us in our corner, it's the wolves, and they're already past the door. We held the door open for them. America is about to get it's butt kicked, and when it looks around for the kicker, I expect it'll find itself gazing straight in the mirror. It's coming for sure and we deserve it, and more. Things are already too broke to fix.

Things fall apart. This time, perhaps better sooner than later.

Greg

 

[Graham]

Re: The Dollar Slide

It's not about the dollar:

http://www.snipershide.com/forum/ubbthre...158#Post2526158

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Now, If we could get some folks heads out of their butts in Washington, maybe somebody would be leaning harder on OPEC to get their thumbs out of the spouts, and maybe reacquainting them with just how long the American memory is, and just how much we eventually, inevitibly get pissed off at being blackmailed. When one revaluates the artificially inflated cost of oil, the trade deficits might even become, dare one say, a trade surplus. Wish I had an oil faucet so I could regulate my own personal trade balance; but silly me, I'm not an Arab, am I?

I mean, here we are, with lots and lots of forces and equipment in very nearly the right place, and wouldn't you know it? Washington's pointing the guns at the wrong people. Again.
Greg </div></div>

I don't think trying to commandeer the oil in the Mid-East would solve any problems. It just might spark WW3 ... </div></div>
Donald Trump brings up some interesting points in this video that goes along with the oil part of the conversation. Slams current leadership directions, and brings up ideas how to get the dollar going in the right direction. That is, if Trump doesn't start WW3 with oil being one of the hot topics. Also has a solid view on our $300B trade deficit with China each year. Donald "stirs the kettle of global ideas" starting at 7 minutes into this video (you might want to jump ahead) at:

Trump Video Interview about Broad World Topics including the Dollar Value and Oil

It is uniquely Donald Trump from his mouth, please enjoy! Even if do not agree with him, Donald brings up some good numbers and ideas to further positive discussions.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Actually, I wouldn't want to provoke the Mideast to do anything, at all.</div></div>
+1, Me either. Seems like messing with a hornets nest good to keep away from, instead we have been poking around over there making the natives needlessly restless for decades. The extra $15T+ Iraq has in fuels could be used here. Did we win anything with lives and cash spent? Or do they need all that oil and then some to be put back on their feet as a world power like we did for Japan? Did the US learn anything from propping up Japan after WW2 - seems not. Curious what these fights are about all over is all. Especially concerned about new fights being started. And what are we still fighting for? Seems we are involved in new skirmishes all the time all over. Maybe we should back off and be less aggressive when able. Libya, not sure what the deal is there. Afghanistan was Russia's Vietnam way before us - did we not learn anything from Russian history watching our cold war major opponent being unable to win in decades trying. Seems we have big enough problems to focus on at home to not be stirring up distant bee hives. Unfortunately we have some activities started in process now. The US more and more limited energy with funds should be allocated to positive instead of negative activities. To be able to step away as if never there seems a difficult trick.

It does not look good going forward. The Marshall plan is going to be needed here in the USA soon the way things are going. Greg, as you brought up once before ... this is one scary ride. Want off of but going too fast and seems a deadly leap if try for safety.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Scary rides are often the best ones, I think. The weak sisters tend to keep clear, so the company tends to be more interesting along the way. Sometimes they even end up going somewhere worthwhile. I already know I'm not going to live forerver, so I might as well have some exciting memories for when I finally get to where I can't go any further.

Yeeehah! Who needs popcorn anyway...

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

ah - the doom and gloom...

There is no other country that has the liquidity, rule of law and stability that this country has. No other currency will supersede the US Dollar any time soon. The Yuan? Sterling? The Euro....?!? However bad of a shape we're in, we're in a lot better shape than the rest. There's also a tendency for pundits in the media and so-called economic analysts to forget what really drives this country. It's not the asshole bankers who trade blimp on a screen creating nothing and adding very little value to anyone other than themselves...

I've had the good luck to have lived and worked in several countries and regions where I was able to really mix with the local people and get to know the cultures. Of all the places I've been in Europe, Asia, SE Asia and of course North America the USA is still, and by a long shot, the first choice of where I'd like to be and where I'd like to raise my family.

The greatness of America doesn't come from it's aggression towards it's trading partners or potential foes. It certainly doesn't come from it's success at managing countries overseas either directly or via espionage. It's greatness comes from the near constant boiling point of creativity and ingenuity. Other countries can only dream of institutions such as MIT, CalTech, Berkeley, and the engineering cadres at Perdue, Northwestern, and others. The issue of oil, and the bigger issue of fuel utilization will be resolved through in-house technology, creativity and the 'can-do' attitude that characterize Americans in the eyes of the world.

Look around our own community - you have Kasey at Accushot, American Rifle Company, TacOps, Seekins, GAP, TabGear, TIS Slings, Gradous Rifles, USOptics, Premier Reticles and a bunch of other small but highly innovative-top-of-their-game businesses bringing things to the marketplace that beat the rest of the world hands down. Heck I just got my I.O.T.A. lens and I'm happier than a pig in shit at the smarts behind it. Some of these companies like Premier are generations old others like American Rifle just a few years but the innovation is the same. The point is, these and many thousands of companies like them, add REAL value to their markets. Real products that keep an economic engine turning. This isn't coincidence, this isn't going to get outsourced or sold off to pay off the debt, it's as American as Apple Pie.

The fiscal issues we face will be dealt with, not elegantly or conclusively perhaps, but I believe they will be resolved even if it requires a series of bankruptcies at the municipal and State level. These will be house clearing opportunities.

I wasn't born here, but I thank God that my son was and I consider myself gifted to be here and apply whatever talents I have to their full potential. I'm preparing for an on-coming Winter and I suggest others do so but do't think this country will collapse into a subsistence level existence. Winter will come but I'm planning for the Spring and the harvest in the Summer that I know will come soon after.

God Bless America!

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It's greatness comes from the near constant boiling point of creativity and ingenuity. Other countries can only dream of institutions such as MIT, CalTech, Berkeley, and the engineering cadres at Perdue, Northwestern, and others.</div></div>
Too bad we freely give our technology away to others who make money with what we create here!

In fact often ends STUPID to fund college innovation anymore, as never results in US industry with jobs. So why innovate if we never get the profit from new ideas? When history shows often returns never cover the time and money invested. Colleges don't guarantee jobs, give a return on investments, or pay back investment moneys. Often the huge amount of money going into colleges gets sucked in the 'black hole' (pays for salaries, retirements, overhead, ...). Lots goes into colleges but nothing comes out.

The public someday will figure it out the USA is not the world leader we used to be. US citizens living in the past with blinders on is typical - it is not as good as was only a few short decades ago. USA technologies to get freely given to others outside the USA who end up making money with our few successes - then they get to own. They kick our failures to the curb without investment, and only compete when can profit from our success. Is a good business model. The Mag-lev trains are only one example created here in US think tanks now an industry controlled by players outside the US. We create then others outside the USA get the incoming cash / jobs. Chips, boards, systems, and software created here is now being better used in Asia - they buy our best design software tools from EDA companies who sell it. Our innovation can be purchased as US companies are short term focused on cash (once have our best and will likely leapfrog to pass us - time will tell). With the focus on short term money - US organizations who create often don't think strategically for long term. The US Government doesn't help its innovators as much as foreign governments do.

How do those outside our boundaries get USA technologies? They appear to be buying it, until understand then build themselves. Over and over again it happens. Is a very successful business model, USA companies don't understand. Those who pay may only want to take the idea as their own eventually and may be backed by their government to do it (executing a strategic long term plan). Eventually the USA company or college who created it, has nothing to do with the idea they created and the money is made outside the USA when ideas created here go into 'production'. They say being copied is a form of flattery, but those in industry who copy get to know basic ideas then try to improve with small changes (in attempt to take the largest piece of the pie possible with differentiation).

Added 5/3/11 - 10:55am PST. Other countries being nuclear enabled for cash is also a concern. China is buying Uranium from Australia further proving everything has a price at:

China Faces Headwinds On Uranium Mining Deal

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Actually, I'm really uncomfortable with this discussion and my own points. They are not really representative of the views I'd like to be supporting.

I like everything E-H has put in their most recent post. I think it could be viewed as a "half full" vs "half empty" depiction; but fair enough, it's accurate in as far as it goes. I'd love to take things at that and move on. But I don't thank that would be a responsible approach.

I just want to suggest that there's more to the equation, that are a lot of folks in the Mideast who'd stomp that depiction flat in an instant if they ever got the chance.

Some of them are trading partners, and the way they trade with us is not without its elements of hostility, either. At very least, the term "extortion' comes early to mind. Friends? No.

A lot of others(?) have Americans within reach, and they work very hard at killing as many of them as they can. Nation building is neither going to convert them to our views nor eliminate them as a threat. They will have a big part the last word.

I think we've outstayed our usefulness in the Mideast, and that our continued stay just cranks up the resentment that accompanies our interventon. Some of that resentment is probably becoming justified. Some of that is pretty clearly a part of what we pay for at the pump.

I think that expanding our role beyiond Iraq and Afghanistan is, honestly, confusing; to me, to the individual countries involved, to the Mideast in general, to the world community, and to the American people who are footing the bill.

Some perceive a humanitarian mandate in support of freedom. Maybe so; but considering where all this is taking place, I have grave doubts about ultimate outcomes.

In the end, I think the impression most will take away is one of America meddling, again; and ineffectually, also again. The overall consequence America will earn will be of resentment. To some degree, I already resent it myself; so I could understand it if that's where the collective Arab heart is headed.

The Mideast is where Western nations go to fail. That's an opinion. Eastern nations too, ask Russia.

We never did earn that key lesson from Vietnam. Portents of falling dominoes to the contrary, Vietnam and its neighbors are probably among what some would call trading partners. Scarcely the horrors of the Red Menace we were taught to expect.

Time to learn the lesson..., again. That's also an opinion.

If I were King, I'd simply apologize for ever thinking we had a constructive role to play there, and get out ASAP. There are few, if any, gains to be made there, and I believe our present and potential losses already far outnumber them.

As for China; China is China's friend.

Greg

PS ...the gloom and doom. Yes. Some. It's what I see, among other things. Not my only prospect, but I suspect we ignore such at our peril. I seriously doubt there's a single nation that wishes us prosperity, outside our own, and some might doubt even that. I'm trying my best not to be one.

Managing other nations, either directly or by espionage... Yes, we do that; thanks for highlighting it. Not my favorite aspect of American foreign policy, either. I guess it boils down to whether forward deployment is a valid premise. Better to fight our wars off our shores than on them, and all that... I suppose I could be mistaken in believing this.

We live in a time of deception, cowardice, and coercion. Lately, we have found that it's a two-way street. Nations, either voluntarily or involuntarily, harbor indigenous groups that do harm on an internatonal level without acting under color of their country's authority.

To whom does one assign accountability? The easy answer is that it can't be determined.

I don't like that easy answer. I think that it grants immunity to nations for the bestial acts of their citizens. I think that it gives far too little incentive to those nations to police their own citizens. I think that it ignores the potential that said nations are duplicitous in those acts. I think that it allows terrorists to hold their own citizenry hostage against American response.

Those terrorists have no compunctions about holding our nation and its citizens accountable for acts of our nation which they despise.

I simply propose that a nation that pays the price, as we do, has a right, maybe even an obligation, to hold those harbor nations equally accountable for the acts of their citizens, and that the harbor nation then also has a far more valid incentive to police the transgressions of terrorists harboring within their borders. When their innocent citizens suffer as ours have been made to do, those citizens will either clamor for such action, or acquiesce in their sympathetic complicity in those acts.

To absolve them is such complicity is to actively invite and encourage further outrage. That is what we currently do; and for as long as we do, we will have further terrorist outrage to look forward to. For as long as we do, I don't see the terrorists as being solely to blame.

 

[tigerhawk]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Pretty well said, Greg.

 

[Tigerbikes]

Re: The Dollar Slide

This is a deliberate devaluation by the Fed.

They are devaluing the dollar to pump up the stock market.

The dirty little secret is that the year to date return on the S&P in real terms, i.e. adjusted for the plunge in the dollar, is negative.

When one compares the YTD change in the S&P compared to the YTD change in DXY, one gets the chart below.

To all those who hold stocks: congratulations - you have only lost 0.18% in purchasing power year to date.

A continuing decline in the dollar is NOT a good thing for the country.

But it allows politician to put off doing the hard work that needs to be done.

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Tigerbikes</div><div class="ubbcode-body">This is a deliberate devaluation by the Fed.

They are devaluing the dollar to pump up the stock market.

The dirty little secret is that the year to date return on the S&P in real terms, i.e. adjusted for the plunge in the dollar, is negative.

When one compares the YTD change in the S&P compared to the YTD change in DXY, one gets the chart below.</div></div>
Tigerbikes, good stuff. Never thought of the dollar being de-valued on purpose by Uncle Sam. Was simply complaining about the results of less buying power overseas in the last few decades. The graph in the OP got me fired up. Still processing your added information - seems too wrong lower buying power is being encouraged so wasn't considered until now. Thank you for the insight and awesome graph.

 

[Maggot]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Tigerbikes</div><div class="ubbcode-body">This is a deliberate devaluation by the Fed.

They are devaluing the dollar to pump up the stock market.

The dirty little secret is that the year to date return on the S&P in real terms, i.e. adjusted for the plunge in the dollar, is negative.

When one compares the YTD change in the S&P compared to the YTD change in DXY, one gets the chart below.

To all those who hold stocks: congratulations - you have only lost 0.18% in purchasing power year to date.

A continuing decline in the dollar is NOT a good thing for the country.

But it allows politician to put off doing the hard work that needs to be done. </div></div>

Makes me gld I got into Gold American Eagles. Going upupup.

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Something else counter-intuitive. Large exporters now make more money as the dollar slides:

Weak Dollar Boosting Quarterly Earnings

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

There's nothing counter-intuitve about that, exporters gain by the dollar being cheaper abroad.

I'm on the fence about the Fed devaluing on purpose. It makes the cost of financing the debt even higher. Given the performance of treasuries it would seem that the rest of the market doesn't hold this to be true either. However, you never can tell. If Goldman Sachs is front running an equities play then their servants at the Fed will do as their master bids them... if only the San Andreas Fault ran through Wall St....

 

[Tigerbikes]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon </div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm on the fence about the Fed devaluing on purpose. It makes the cost of financing the debt even higher.</div></div>
A reasonable person would think so.

But the Fed is at work there too, keeping short term rates artificially low (near zero for two years now) while simultaneously <span style="font-weight: bold">BUYING</span> our own treasuries.

Remember the yield on treasuries is the inverse of the price. So if the Fed buys them up at an inflated price, they keep the yield down.

Who is the biggest holder of US debt?

Those pesky Chinese?

<span style="font-weight: bold">Not any more...

<span style="color: #990000">It is the Fed!</span></span>

Watch as the treasury portion of the Fed balance sheet grows and grows:

 

[Nidstyles]

Re: The Dollar Slide

You have to take into account the direct liquidity injection's that the Fed has been doing as well. Check out the M2 values for the past 3 months alone. I know there is no single sector out there making that sort of money, so it has to be the direct injection's that are covering it.

Either way it's going to be interesting to see how they play this out. When QE2 end's, the rates go up and the National debt goes up exponential with the rates. Just a 1% increase in rates would push the National debt up to over $16 Trillion.

The whole situation is a mess.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

But Jeff, the key question to ask is - from WHOM the Fed is buying these treasuries and where is the money from the sale going?

If you look at the flow of funds exiting the bonds market you'll see that they flow into equities, commodities and cash accounts. The yield of bonds has been rising. There was a huge run in bonds but in the second half of last year those gains were given back. Even PIMCO, the largest of bond funds has closed their Treasury funds and replaced them with equity funds instead. The private sector, once bloated with T-bills, has been selling them off.

If there was a concerted dollar deval in place then the other currencies purchasing parity would lead to a reverse of the dollar/yen carry trade. However, I do not believe such a thing has occurred recently (I may be wrong, haven't looked into it as I don't really play currencies). Rather, I think what has happened is that the massive flow of funds at zero rates of interest from the Fed to the banks has lead to a huge inflation of equity prices and the corporate bond market at the expense of the Treasury markets. We are seeing silly valuations and projections by analysts that in turn bolster the artificially high prices/low yields of otherwise corporate junk grade bonds.

Bear in mind also that the ECB is making rumbling noises of raising interest rates - if this happens then the Euro will appreciate in response to the flow of hot money to European shores at the expense of the dollar. Ordinarily this would lead to a rise in yields of US debt... I guess we need to see what the situ is around QE3 - will it occur or not? I doubt it and I doubt that the Fed will raise rates either - it would kill the fragile economic recovery quicker than a SEAL Team 6 member kills a terrorist douchebag...

Is there artificial involvement in the bond markets - you bet - is it to deval the dollar as an objective - hmmm, dunno, more likely a side effect...

 

[gvanhyning]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Well, here's another angle to consider. We don't have a manufacturing base in this country any more. Look around and try to find "Made in the USA", it's damn hard to find. Now consider what Russia did to the Ukraine several years ago when the Ukraine was unable to pay Russia money it was owed. The Russians shut off the natural gas. Now consider China holding the majority (or near majority) of our debt and the U.S. not being able to pay China. Has anyone considered what the store shelves would look like if China stopped shipping manufactured goods the this country? We're in a world of shit and mainstream America is blind.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: gvanhyning</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well, here's another angle to consider. We don't have a manufacturing base in this country any more. Look around and try to find "Made in the USA", it's damn hard to find. Now consider what Russia did to the Ukraine several years ago when the Ukraine was unable to pay Russia money it was owed. The Russians shut off the natural gas. Now consider China holding the majority (or near majority) of our debt and the U.S. not being able to pay China. Has anyone considered what the store shelves would look like if China stopped shipping manufactured goods the this country? We're in a world of shit and mainstream America is blind. </div></div>

Not even in the deck. China needs us more, much more. China has hundreds of millions of workers to try and keep gainfully employed. It has bloated it's own property market with State funds to build whole cities in which no one is living just to keep the peasants working. One regional leader was given an award for blowing up a bridge and rebuilding it because it meant a lot of work... regarding the debt, we're in a Mexican stand off with China. They can't dump our debt because then they will take massive losses and they can't dump our currency because their own currency is pegged to ours.

 

[gvanhyning]

Re: The Dollar Slide

China is building new relationships and alliances worldwide. The hole we've dug in terms of foreign policy is almost as deep as the national debt hole. Don't forget that China is a communist regime that cares little about workers or human sacrifice. The real question is what extent will they go to in order to collapse the U.S.?

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Respectfully, China isn't our biggest threat. We are. The rate at which the middle class in this country is being whittled away and the rate at which wealth and ownership of capital is being concentrated has always historically caused huge social and political upheaval. Unless there is a broadening of bank lending to small and middle sized businesses where traditionally the bulk of Americans are employed, then that's what's going to do us in.

The farce that Big Corporations hide behind that has the sound-byte loving, unthinking Joe convinced is capitalism is the true cancer effecting our economy and international standing. We love our walmart, we love our GE and Boeing and other companies who have transferred our means of production, technology and domestic revenue overseas - buy hey, that's cannibalism... i mean capitalism...

There's been no Govt policy by any administration to kill off our manufacturing base, what there has been is corporate subversion of govt oversight and legislature allowing them to kill off domestic production with foreign, cheaper and less regulated (read unethical) production processes. The checks and balances of the private sector have slowly been lobbied away or down to irrelevance for the most part. Insanely, in others, they have risen - trucking as one example. A hazmat trucker in the US has a stringent set of rules to follow to transport dangerous materials. The same materials can be transported into the US from Mexico by some Jose on a donkey... guess which company gets the contract...? Guess how many Big Corporations lobbied HARD for NAFTA....

On your point about China - it's no more communist than Donald Trump. It's time-share Dictatorship with a centrally planned economy in regards to capital flows but with tolerance for private ownership - hence you get State subsidized factories and banks whose owners and shareholders drive Ferraris. THey need the workers to be working not because of care or consideration but social stability. Not even the Chinese army can crush 300 million rebelling, starving peasants in a country as geographically vast as theirs. Any attempt to do so will also make them very exposed and vulnerable. They will seek to avoid this scenario at all costs.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Re: The Dollar Slide

China and Russia have agreed to trade in the respective currency and not the US dollar. China has been very busy trying to increase it's share of the European market and trying to be less dependent on the US.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

It's posturing. The yuen is neither liquid or floating as a currency. The country is not under an open or even recognized rule of law. All essential factors for a reserve currency. I wouldn't be looking to Europe for growth...

There's a lot of talk of the demise of the dollar but no one really has the answer to 'what will take it's place?'.

 

[ubet]

Re: The Dollar Slide

In 08 when oil went to $150/barrel, I paid $5.25/gallon for diesel. That following winter, Jan. 09, I paid $1.80/gallon. What changed? Bush had opened up off shore drilling, and told the world we were going to drill. The price of oil plumated. After obama took office, it has steadily gone back up, the world over knowhing his views against drilling.

We have enough oil to be energy independent, we just need to do something about it. The supply and demand hasnt changed that much since winter 09, its just that the world knows we arent going to drill, conflicts in the Middle East, and whatever else, keep driving speculators to bid oil higher and higher.

If the moretorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico was lifted today, and companies were allowed to drill closer to shore, and not be in deep water at the sametime, not mention the oil up in anwar and in the balkin reserve, we would see <2$ fuel again.

The lack of refineries in the United States is going to be the problem, a new one hasnt been built for about 25 years if I remember correctly.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ubet</div><div class="ubbcode-body">In 08 when oil went to $150/barrel, I paid $5.25/gallon for diesel. That following winter, Jan. 09, I paid $1.80/gallon. What changed? Bush had opened up off shore drilling, and told the world we were going to drill. The price of oil plumated. After obama took office, it has steadily gone back up, the world over knowhing his views against drilling.

We have enough oil to be energy independent, we just need to do something about it. The supply and demand hasnt changed that much since winter 09, its just that the world knows we arent going to drill, conflicts in the Middle East, and whatever else, keep driving speculators to bid oil higher and higher.

If the moretorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico was lifted today, and companies were allowed to drill closer to shore, and not be in deep water at the sametime, not mention the oil up in anwar and in the balkin reserve, we would see <2$ fuel again.

The lack of refineries in the United States is going to be the problem, a new one hasnt been built for about 25 years if I remember correctly. </div></div>


erm... the 'drill baby drill' oil you are referring to would have taken at least 12 years to drill and deliver to refineries. These were off shore sights, the hardest and most expensive to drill. The markets don't price 12 years in advance, they're 3 month rolling contracts... Furthermore, we don't enough to be energy independent for long and not any stretch of time that would make sense as a legitimate policy. It was a campaign asset.

The plummet in the price of oil was because of the near-catastrophic financial crisis that created the worst recession since the depression - that's what happened.

Obama has no control of the price of oil and neither did Bush. Do you honestly, in your right mind, think any politician would believe it's a good career move to let the price of oil rise if they could in fact keep it down?

The US's domestic view on oil drilling is largely irrelevant. Where the US has real impact on the price of gasoline is in the domestic refineries. By sheer coincidence, a number of the larger refineries were offline for routine repairs just as the price of oil was ramping up as well... draw your own conclusions.

 

[gvanhyning]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ubet</div><div class="ubbcode-body">In 08 when oil went to $150/barrel, I paid $5.25/gallon for diesel. That following winter, Jan. 09, I paid $1.80/gallon. What changed? Bush had opened up off shore drilling, and told the world we were going to drill. The price of oil plumated. After obama took office, it has steadily gone back up, the world over knowhing his views against drilling.

We have enough oil to be energy independent, we just need to do something about it. The supply and demand hasnt changed that much since winter 09, its just that the world knows we arent going to drill, conflicts in the Middle East, and whatever else, keep driving speculators to bid oil higher and higher.

If the moretorium on drilling in the Gulf of Mexico was lifted today, and companies were allowed to drill closer to shore, and not be in deep water at the sametime, not mention the oil up in anwar and in the balkin reserve, we would see <2$ fuel again.

The lack of refineries in the United States is going to be the problem, a new one hasnt been built for about 25 years if I remember correctly. </div></div>


erm... the 'drill baby drill' oil you are referring to would have taken at least 12 years to drill and deliver to refineries. These were off shore sights, the hardest and most expensive to drill. The markets don't price 12 years in advance, they're 3 month rolling contracts... Furthermore, we don't enough to be energy independent for long and not any stretch of time that would make sense as a legitimate policy. It was a campaign asset.

The plummet in the price of oil was because of the near-catastrophic financial crisis that created the worst recession since the depression - that's what happened.

Obama has no control of the price of oil and neither did Bush. Do you honestly, in your right mind, think any politician would believe it's a good career move to let the price of oil rise if they could in fact keep it down?

The US's domestic view on oil drilling is largely irrelevant. Where the US has real impact on the price of gasoline is in the domestic refineries. By sheer coincidence, a number of the larger refineries were offline for routine repairs just as the price of oil was ramping up as well... draw your own conclusions. </div></div>
Obama and his "Green" policies are still a very big part of his agenda. Obama has publicly stated that his "Green" policies were going to dramatically increase the cost of energy. Not just fuel but all energy. California "Green" policies are in part responsible for reduced sulfur diesel and the extremely high price of diesel today. That in turn affects every facet of our lives.

 

[Nidstyles]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It's posturing. The yuen is neither liquid or floating as a currency. The country is not under an open or even recognized rule of law. All essential factors for a reserve currency. I wouldn't be looking to Europe for growth...

There's a lot of talk of the demise of the dollar but no one really has the answer to 'what will take it's place?'. </div></div>

The Yaun is liquid, as it's used by most of Asia that isn't Japan or Singapore to shore up their assets.

This whole idea of needing a reserve currency is ridiculous. The US hasn't had a real reserve for it's dollar, but it's value was measured through the function of indexing and being a reserve for other nations.

Too many people putting these unreasonable restrictions on the Chinese that have no bearing on their economy, or purchasing power. China is selling off the US T-Bill's. They are negotiating trade agreement's with the rest of the world, and they will be removing themselves from the US dollar. They have already been saying this for the past 9 months.

As for that whole they have no one to sell their good's to, they have 1.3+Billion people. That's a lot of people they could sell to. There's also India, Russia, Iran, and several other developing nations that have excess revenue.

 

[breachersup]

Re: The Dollar Slide


"What makes you think the price of oil is artificially inflated? What should it be? And explain how that number is derived.

oil prices are a function of cost of supply, quantity of supply, demand and the pricing mechanism. "

Ummmm yeah, It's called <span style="font-style: italic">collusion</span>- when the members of an <span style="font-style: italic">oligopoly</span> agree to limit the supply to raise the price.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Breachers Up</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
"What makes you think the price of oil is artificially inflated? What should it be? And explain how that number is derived.

oil prices are a function of cost of supply, quantity of supply, demand and the pricing mechanism. "

Ummmm yeah, It's called <span style="font-style: italic">collusion</span>- when the members of an <span style="font-style: italic">oligopoly</span> agree to limit the supply to raise the price. </div></div>

ummmm I know about collusion...

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Where the US has real impact on the price of gasoline is in the domestic refineries. By sheer coincidence, a number of the larger refineries were offline for routine repairs just as the price of oil was ramping up as well... draw your own conclusions.</div></div>

But the futures set price of oil is not the function of the oligopolies of either OPEC or Big Oil.

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

"If everyone believes the dollar is on a long-term downward slide (as seems to be the case), if the U.S. is widely seen as an empire in decline, it wouldn't take much to start an avalanche."

"So what? A weaker dollar makes Americans poorer: It means U.S. paychecks buy less of what the world sells us. By pushing up prices of imports, it means more inflation, not much of a problem today but potentially one in the future."

"The chart with this column traces the history of the dollar against currencies of U.S. trading partners. One line shows then-current exchange rates, the other adjusts to reflect differences in inflation among countries, a more meaningful metric because it reflects the dollar's actual buying power."

The Dollar Slide:

"This price-adjusted measure shows the spike in the dollar that led the Reagan administration to seek global help in pulling it down in 1985, the subsequent fall and rise of the dollar through the early 2000s and then a steady decline in during the expansion of the 2000s. That trend was interrupted by the flight to safety during the financial crisis but since has resumed."

"Big picture: The dollar today is lower than at any time since major currencies began floating in 1973. It is 13% lower than it was 30 years ago and 28% below its 2002 recent peak."

This and more today in the news at:

Dollar's Drop Merits Attention, Not Panic

Dang, lower buying power than 30 years ago could make it harder to buy guns, especially foreign-made ones. Makes it harder to buy anything. With fuel higher than ever and prices of goods going up faster than ever recall. Gut says seems like rough times with more ahead. This isn't over. Will see what happens as average citizens are belted in along for for the ride - we can only hope there is not a massive crash (out of our control with our involvement).

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Breachers Up</div><div class="ubbcode-body">What makes you think the price of oil is artificially inflated? What should it be? And explain how that number is derived.</div></div>
With a lower valued dollar oil (nearly all imported) has inflated costs. Fuel is above $4 per gallon and rising first time ever. See chart above about dollar being devalued sometimes artificially. The Federal Reserve is source.

Did bin Laden turn reverse 30 years of US productivity or was it something else? 9/11 was a turning point on the graph above. And after that is when so many us industries, nearly everything, moved to Asia to be created primarily India / China. Can the dollar slide be reversed is the big question. The dollar is in a free fall now with average citizen buying power below 30 years ago.

 

[EventHorizon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

I couldn't help but think of this thread as the dollar rose, commodities dived and perhaps the long awaited Dow correction is upon us.

For those who have the stomach for it, if this correction is here this could be a magnificent short opportunity. Thank goodness for proshares ETFs...

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Ways to invest with a shrinking dollar are discussed including: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Currencies.

How to Profit From the Shrinking Dollar

 

[oregon]

Re: The Dollar Slide

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: gvanhyning</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Well, here's another angle to consider. We don't have a manufacturing base in this country any more. Look around and try to find "Made in the USA", it's damn hard to find. Now consider what Russia did to the Ukraine several years ago when the Ukraine was unable to pay Russia money it was owed. The Russians shut off the natural gas. Now consider China holding the majority (or near majority) of our debt and the U.S. not being able to pay China. Has anyone considered what the store shelves would look like if China stopped shipping manufactured goods the this country? We're in a world of shit and mainstream America is blind. </div></div>
+1, totally agree. Thank you for your comments.

China, India, and others had it right: first their government helped foreign students pay our U.S. government funded colleges (huge non-citizen rates gladly banked) to teach non U.S. foreign workers, foreign workers then have gotten experience in our best companies (companies gladly hire the best to try to burn them out for nearly nothing as they learn), and now those who put in the time to gain the skills go back 'home' to teach their own as foreign governments do their best to move all the US jobs overseas forever. It is an ugly circle they have strategically used in many industries and a complex plan implemented for each that takes decades. Now playing out.

Those smart enough have used the fact Americans are greedy and think short term against the USA. One measure is a visa program designed to supply skilled foreign workers to companies in the U.S. has slowed sharply, attracting about 50% fewer petitions so far this year than last year, and 80% fewer than in 2009.

As the value of the dollar slides. Not only is the value of the dollar going down more and more Americans have no jobs to earn dollars. Others create the goods for our store shelves now. The Feds working with industries need to put good plans in place and react, what they are doing now is not working.

There goes our computer technology, manufacturing, and our bright future with all the good jobs elsewhere.

Long-Prized Tech Visas Lose Cachet

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: gvanhyning</div><div class="ubbcode-body">China is building new relationships and alliances worldwide. The hole we've dug in terms of foreign policy is almost as deep as the national debt hole. Don't forget that China is a communist regime that cares little about workers or human sacrifice. The real question is what extent will they go to in order to collapse the U.S.? </div></div>
+1. Foreigners paid our colleges huge out of country student fees, then our government visa fees, then our tool companies huge prices once understand what was needed (who were all greedy thinking short term while going to the bank). Now foreign work forces have what they wanted and planed to get the whole time decades ahead - the needed tools and jobs in their local countries not ours. Foreign think tanks in India, China, and Russia do not need us to create the next steps beyond what exists now in technology, manufacturing, service, etc. They will win entire markets in the future with new features, performance, time-to-market, or price to have all the products with all the jobs. US companies like Intel have gone global quick in the last decades to try to get a piece of it, while the jobs and actual creation is beginning to happen overseas as much or more than here.

The big US companies will soon have more workers overseas. The US is getting closer to being on the outside looking in all the time as they gain traction building relationships with all those who USA used to export to. If not already, soon foreigners will not need to pay U.S. colleges to learn as their schools will be better than ours (wonder what the graph of out of country U.S college tuition looks like these days compared to past decades). In fact soon our kids may need to learn foreign language and send our kids overseas to bring skills home from their colleges and working in their companies learning their business (bet they will not let it happen). Seems the next generations of Americans will not have the skills or knowledge to compete with foreigners (and not know why or how to catch up).

So working and learning overseas is now becoming a smarter way to go for many more U.S. workers and young people in all industries. Is sad and not right. While is what it is. My guess is we will not be able to use the tactics used against us to recover. In the future when the USA creates and industry possibly the companies and our government will treat it more on a needs to know basis to keep it here. It is too late for: steel, gasoline, rubber, nukes, computers, the airplane, the maglev train, customer service call centers, the light bulb, DVDs, CD-ROMs, computer memory, the television, ... Too bad we didn't keep here everything Tesla and others created here.

As a silly analogy: Our government / industry leadership over decades has run the ship aground and now what are they going to do? Sand reef near an island where we are outnumbered by hungry cannibals. It could be nearly too late as the boat has a massive leak that just opened up. Do not have enough life boats. Communicated to our factories have time if build fast. On the mainland do not see anyone gathering materials or making plans. Without construction there will be no help. The clock is ticking.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Here in Central NY, extensive exploration and infrastructure investment has occurred seeking natrual gas. The deposits are mapped, the rights are contracted, at least part of the wells are drilled and capped, and the collection pipelines are already in place. Energy investment has been ongoing here for over the past decade.

Now, the big buzz phrases in our area are "Ban Hydrofracking", and "No LNG Plants here....".

To my mind, the biggest impediments to our energy independence are the bumper crops of Neo-Luddites our colleges are turning loose on the American landscape, year after year after....

Just one point...

Yes, Hydrofracking involves injecting hydrocarbons thousand of feet down into shale deposits. What the critics choose to ignore is the simple fact that there are already considerable natural hydrocabon deposits in the locale where the injection is being done.

If there were none, there'd be no reason to perform the injection in the first place.

But such facts never form any significant portion of those crititcs' arguments. It's more usually all about those evil big energy corporate conglomerates and their demon drillers running wild and uncaring across our landscape, with duplicitous government regulators resting fat and happy in their pockets. Plays to their readership better that way.

 

[RollingThunder51]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Greg,

If only it were so...

Even Bernanke, when listing out the reasons GDP missed in the first quarter included weaker exports. Weaker exports...with the $ making all time lows against a real and unadulterated currency like the Swiss Franc.

At approx. 12:18...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1YLPYix0kM

So the principle argument that a weak dollar is somehow good for America falls on deaf ears. But...it gets worse, the real driver behind the crusade to devalue the dollar may have more to do with a backhanded and misguided effort to get foreign nations to invest their new found wealth back into the U.S. That is right, rather than have Americans build new factories here instead of "there" (they won't because they are now chasing foreign markets overseas by being and building...right...overseas with no real tax consequence) a warped view is suggesting that "they" might come here to build "their" factories. Like some 3rd world nation, the U.S. is up for sale....on the cheap. Balance of trade would improve...sure it would....as the stats would suggest more being made "here" and the profits? Right, they would be leaving our shores and going "there." But the employment numbers might go up and that is all some want...T minus 18 months. It is kind of like hiring and firing census workers over and over again to get the hire rate up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/f...bor%20Force.jpg

Or the fact that hidden within last week's 244,000 job increases was a sordid tale, a remarkable 177,000 new jobs being provided by the wholly statistical "birth/death" formula (no direct job creation)....McDonald's hires and seven thousand (7,000) actually and verifiable new jobs. Enough to run futures from +8 to +165 and, until enough traders caught on, allowing us all to pretend that structurally things are not as they actually are.

Right while some were toasting "2,500,000" new jobs, others were blowing lunch all over their laps when this ditty came over the wires.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/f...Time%20jobs.jpg

2,000,000 of those 2,500,000 new jobs are....part time.

"Observing the Household data breakdown into full time and part time workers, we see that the drop was actually more pronounced: while the March full time (112.755 MM) and part time (27.087MM) total summed nicely to the total headline number of 139,864, off by just 2K, the April data indicated that the component breakdown highlighted a much more pronounced drop in the headline number than the 190K indicated. Summing up the components adds to 139.572 MM, 102K less than the total 139.674 MM disclosed. In other words, the true drop when summed across components was not 190K, but 290K. And next, for the focus of this post, we look at whether this drop occurred in full time or part time jobs. <span style="font-weight: bold">To our complete lack of surprise, of the 290K drop, 291K was from full time jobs. As for part time jobs, you guessed it, increased by 1,000 in April. As the attached chart shows, since the start of the depression, America has lost 9.1 million full time jobs, offsetting this by a gain of 2.3 million part time jobs. No need to outsource to Asia any more: America now outsources jobs to temp agencies. And so the transition of America into a part-time worker society</span>."

Then there is the liquid pool of excess capital swirling throughout the ethersphere. There to lube the banks ability to cover loss and remain liquid...or at least seemingly so. The actually borrowing? It is here..

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/f...Of%20Credit.jpg

And what do we see? Printing presses stuffing bank coffers with no residual loaning effect. Cheap dollars to grease the economy? I think not. Cheap dollars to pay out to those that will aid and abet? Thin ice, this..kind of a "direct deposit" from Fed to friend at the direction of...thinner ice.

Greg, if you read one article...let it be this one..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sean-co...n-krishna-shatt

And once you do, I am going to expect a hell of allot more from you than "better exports" or inflating credits.

For those that think Gold or Silver is the Schitz...I can only offer that a single SLV <span style="font-weight: bold">put</span> yielded a 500% return on his or her investment (with a peak of 700% yesterday, or about <span style="font-weight: bold">68,294,229,502,717.3%</span> annualized). Certainly enough to buy the newest Leupold glass (it must be better, it now costs more)....and a beer.

Oregon, you are correct on all accounts, go here... and look for "Time - Relative Valuation" http://www.thefullwiki.org/United_States_dollar

As there must be politics in here somewhere...and certainly no reference are made to long range shooting, suppression and/or that which can be done with a can of spray paint, I'll censor myself, giving Chiller a break. At least I get in an AAC haute couture slam.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Well, I tried to, I'll give it that. By about the third para, I became so throughly numbed by the rather extravagant bloviation that I was forced to give up reading and resume breathing. I honestly hope I'll never need to read that far again without seeing a period. I promise. It was so bad, it began to remind me of myself.

...and BTW, I do so hope that's the only example of that tee shirt...

 

[RollingThunder51]

Re: The Dollar Slide

Sorry to hear it as there are 41 periods before the close of the first real paragraph.

== Oh shit, your not taking about my piece, but rather Corrigan's..Lord, you are right about that. I see your point ==

The abridged edition..

The dollar's decline has not, nor will it improve U.S. exports for important structural reasons.

Best