Turns out Corona Virus threat is all horsecrap.

phlegethon

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You are absolutely correct. And you know what makes it all work?
Sample size.

I played poker 4 times last week.
Each session, I had a showdown in which I was an 80\20 favorite. I lost all four showdowns. Therefore, statistics are garbage.....
No not so. Statistics should be based on larger statistical samples.

Everyone and his brother are slinging numbers out there. There are lots of data points missing. It's hard to figure your odds and outs, if you dont even know how many cards are in the deck.

I'm not saying it's all junk, I'm saying, dont act like you know everything just cause you are a janitor at St God's Hospital.
We have a lot of data points. With small data sets you see the predictions jumping around as you get more data, that's not the case with a lot of these stats.

Also, I'm an attending physician. And I absolutely don't know everything, or anything close. But I really do know SOME things, and I'm not sure why that is so difficult to accept.
 

bab029

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We have a lot of data points. With small data sets you see the predictions jumping around as you get more data, that's not the case with a lot of these stats.

Also, I'm an attending physician. And I absolutely don't know everything, or anything close. But I really do know SOME things, and I'm not sure why that is so difficult to accept.
I’m grateful for your contributions here. Any front line stuff you can share moving forward is appreciated.

Obviously, I’m stay as far away from a hospital as I can on a normal week. It’ll take a ride in the party bus to get me there now.

Can you speak to the reasons behind such a broad range of physiological responses to the virus seen so far? It seems that a c19 experience could range from a slight sniffle all the way to slowly drowning in interstitial goo.


As an anecdote, I know two people so far who have tested positive and had the slight sniffle experience....
 

phlegethon

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Can you speak to the reasons behind such a broad range of physiological responses to the virus seen so far? It seems that a c19 experience could range from a slight sniffle all the way to slowly drowning in interstitial goo.
Yeah, so what I said above about not knowing everything? Great example here. All I can tell you is a lot of infections have a range of severity. It seems like level of initial exposure has something to do with it, so you're better off getting a small dose than a large one or repeated re-exposure (maybe why households have more severe cases). There are also probably things about the relationship between the host and the virus, but that becomes pretty hand-waves.
 

Raffy

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You are absolutely correct. And you know what makes it all work?
Sample size.

I played poker 4 times last week.
Each session, I had a showdown in which I was an 80\20 favorite. I lost all four showdowns. Therefore, statistics are garbage.....
No not so. Statistics should be based on larger statistical samples.

Everyone and his brother are slinging numbers out there. There are lots of data points missing. It's hard to figure your odds and outs, if you dont even know how many cards are in the deck.

I'm not saying it's all junk, I'm saying, dont act like you know everything just cause you are a janitor at St God's Hospital.
Who is a janitor? Besides, any janitor knows if its getting young people its not a run of the mill illness spreading. I dont know why people are getting so offensive/defensive about any of this. Don't cough on me, wash your hands, stay away from other people and everyone is happy. Basically just treat other people with respect. Do some of us want to cough on others or not like washing our hands? What's the big deal? Maybe others are thinking they dont like being told 'by The Man' what to do? I don't care for everything 'The Man' has to say either, but sheesh this is basic stuff. How many conspiracy theorist's can we fit in this thread I wonder? People need to open their eyes to the world instead of their keyboard and look around a little bit and take a chill pill.
 
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armorpl8chikn

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Flu gets young people every year raffy.
Besides...I thought it was getting old people. It's funny how it morphs in every country or continent. Them Iranians, it was slaughtering them wholesale.
 
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MTN

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Yeah, so what I said above about not knowing everything? Great example here. All I can tell you is a lot of infections have a range of severity. It seems like level of initial exposure has something to do with it, so you're better off getting a small dose than a large one or repeated re-exposure (maybe why households have more severe cases). There are also probably things about the relationship between the host and the virus, but that becomes pretty hand-waves.
To your point in bold..

Sinus and throat become point of seeding for infection. Figuring out how to safely disinfect your sinus and throat when exposed might prove helpful. I am not a Dr. and not going to recommend a method, but will say they are out there to research. Just don't kill yourselves like the guy did drinking pond cleaner.
 

Ravenworks

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I just noticed the site went down for a bit and then when it came back up there were a lot of "new" symbols and some people had gone MIA. ArmyJerry groupies pushed and pushed on Frank and ...
Better to be a groupie keeping shit real than sucking a dick like a crack whore hopping for more.

I know ya snitched didn't ya,HMIC has rules about that
 

chrome

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To your point in bold..

Sinus and throat become point of seeding for infection. Figuring out how to safely disinfect your sinus and throat when exposed might prove helpful. I am not a Dr. and not going to recommend a method, but will say they are out there to research. Just don't kill yourselves like the guy did drinking pond cleaner.
Screenshot 2020-03-30 19.56.22.png
 

MTN

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Take your Prozac and/or Lipitor like a good little boy.

Big Pharma appreciates you!

Edit: My point is there are problems on both sides of the spectrum. But yeah don't eat tidepods, consume fish cleaner, or drink bleach. Those things will kill you. The side effects of most major drugs pumped on national TV are almost as ridiculous.
 
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Raffy

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Flu gets young people every year raffy.
Besides...I thought it was getting old people. It's funny how it morphs in every country or continent. Them Iranians, it was slaughtering them wholesale.
Yes, true. That is what I'm saying is it's potential to affect young people more so than people realize and more severely than the regular old flu. Older folks more so also. As a whole it is generally much more severe. By 'getting' I don't mean infecting, I mean hospitalizing.
 

armorpl8chikn

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Yes, true. That is what I'm saying is it's potential to affect young people more so than people realize and more severely than the regular old flu. Older folks more so also. As a whole it is generally much more severe. By 'getting' I don't mean infecting, I mean hospitalizing.
The numbers dont show what you are saying.

I'm starting to wonder just how deep this fucking matrix rabbit hole goes.
 

chrome

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Take your Prozac and/or Lipitor like a good little boy.

Big Pharma appreciates you!

Edit: My point is there are problems on both sides of the spectrum. But yeah don't eat tidepods, consume fish cleaner, or drink bleach. Those things will kill you. The side effects of most major drugs pumped on national TV are almost as ridiculous.
Just a meme for levity, dont read into it.

ETA: Epstein read too much into it, and then...well fuck.
 

Raffy

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The numbers dont show what you are saying.

I'm starting to wonder just how deep this fucking matrix rabbit hole goes.
I don't have any desire to prove anything, as there is nothing worth proving to anyone. Just know whatever numbers you find don't show the individual severity. If it hits like a sledge hammer it hurts more. If it hurts more I want nothing to do with it and would recommend the same caution to any fellow dude/dudette. I'm not calling anyone here a flat earther, but there are a few comments through in this entire thread from people who may not see the earth as totally round, I fear. I get it though. A little skepticism is a healthy thing. Sometimes it's not quite as warranted as people make it out to be, though.
 

jakelly

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Who is a janitor? Besides, any janitor knows if its getting young people its not a run of the mill illness spreading. I dont know why people are getting so offensive/defensive about any of this. Don't cough on me, wash your hands, stay away from other people and everyone is happy. Basically just trat other people with respect. Do some of us want to cough on others or not like washing our hands? What's the big deal? Maybe others are thinking they dont like being told 'by The Man' what to do? I don't care for everything 'The Man' has to say either, but sheesh this is basic stuff. How many conspiracy theorist's can we fit in this thread I wonder? People need to open their eyes to the world instead of their keyboard and look around a little bit and take a chill pill.
The “conspiracy theorists” have been the guys arguing to keep a level head. The guys saying this is not the end of the world have been called every form of stupid the fellas from the other aisle could conceive. Anyone who has argued that the pursuit of happiness is a God-given right has been called an inhuman sociopath. Anyone who believes in God our creator has been called a rube and incapable of having a conversation about science, medicine, or health.

No one has stated this isn’t real. No one has stated this isn’t dangerous, especially for older folks. The reason this has gotten heated is that if you don’t think the sky is falling and don’t join the “intelligent” in carpet bombing the thread with hysterical thoughts and extrapolations, you’re a caveman.

It doesn’t matter if we destroy the economy, it doesn’t matter if tens of millions go bankrupt, it doesn’t matter if the .gov brings in martial law, it doesn’t matter if the Constitution that millions fought and died for needs to be trampled and forever changed... get woke, because... Corona virus.
 

OldSalty

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It isn't man made. If it were, it would have to re-use sequences from other viruses. We don't have the ability to design new proteins from scratch. However, the spike protein sequence is novel enough that it could only have come from nature.

Also, when people express wonderment about where a virus came from, they sound completely retarded. This is something that happens constantly. This is like having unprotected sex and then making a conspiracy theory about why the girl got pregnant.
Sounds a bit like "russians hacked the DNC", because there was a russian comment or block of code. But, we were told by experts it was the russians, so it was...I mean a super sophisticated phishing attack, yet no effort to hide their footsteps. Sounds probable, right?

Not doubting that you know your shit. But smarter fuckers than me and yes, even you, know what we already know...and more.

Keep that in mind. You know, as a scientist in search of fact.
 

jakelly

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I have a hard time understanding how anyone on this forum believes anything the media machine says on any topic. Apparently their anti-American agenda and propaganda campaign hits pause whenever health and medicine are the topics of the day. And if you can’t see that, you need to adjust your tinfoil hat.
 

Raffy

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The “conspiracy theorists” have been the guys arguing to keep a level head. The guys saying this is not the end of the world have been called every form of stupid the fellas from the other aisle could conceive. Anyone who has argued that the pursuit of happiness is a God-given right has been called an inhuman sociopath. Anyone who believes in God our creator has been called a rube and incapable of having a conversation about science, medicine, or health.

No one has stated this isn’t real. No one has stated this isn’t dangerous, especially for older folks. The reason this has gotten heated is that if you don’t think the sky is falling and don’t join the “intelligent” in carpet bombing the thread with hysterical thoughts and extrapolations, you’re a caveman.

It doesn’t matter if we destroy the economy, it doesn’t matter if tens of millions go bankrupt, it doesn’t matter if the .gov brings in martial law, it doesn’t matter if the Constitution that millions fought and died for needs to be trampled and forever changed... get woke, because... Corona virus.
You have some valid points there regarding the economy. Im all about level headedness. Don't get me wrong, I for the life of me can not understand this toilet paper fiasco. But am also aware of the potential outcome of what would/could happen if this thing is just dismissed and goes unchecked. Look at Italy for an example. I'm all about cautious normal life too. I am concerned about attitudes of indifference that may be attributed to not understanding, or disbelief? Who knows why?? That, to me, is the most dangerous attitude. People really do need to see both sides of the coin too though. Calculated risk is important to evaluate the best possible outcome. Those who are calculating risk, though I do not know them, I believe them. So far it sounds like they have been right. However, if the country goes in to a huge economic depression there will be many more lives indirectly lost or affected is serious ways, also. The Great Depression was no joke. I say live your life, but be cautious and courteous to not cause someone else undue risk of illness. Social Distancing does make sense though. Can anyone imagine what the history records would show if you combined the spanish flu with the Great Depression. Though I'm sure it wouldmake a good read, I pesonally don't care to find out first hand. Also I may need to find a tinfoil hat. Isn't that in the toiletpaper isle?
 
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chrome

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I have a hard time understanding how anyone on this forum believes anything the media machine says on any topic. Apparently their anti-American agenda and propaganda campaign hits pause whenever health and medicine are the topics of the day. And if you can’t see that, you need to adjust your tinfoil hat.
Wholeheartedly agree, lack of journalistic integrity across the spectrum of mainstream news on this topic. I recognize I put more confidence in our academic institutions and public health/think tank organizations than others, and that may blind me with some biases, but from a data collection and analysis standpoint, they hold the cards.
 

Raffy

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Wholeheartedly agree, lack of journalistic integrity across the spectrum of mainstream news on this topic. I recognize I put more confidence in our academic institutions and public health/think tank organizations than others, and that may blind me with some biases, but from a data collection and analysis standpoint, they hold the cards.
I agree with both points above too. I do think there are some serious journalistic integrity issues in this country right now. Probably only going to get worse. I do see some of the more important points being served to America from each political "news" outlet that match though. Those particular parts are what I am more likely to believe but I usually will keep a salt lick nearby whenever I am watching any US news.
 

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While we don’t know a lot of things, we also do know a lot of things about this virus.

Not one single thing we know is good. 3,000+ deaths in the US already without any reason to believe it will slow down.

There are some numbers out there that are estimating the mortality rate at 0.6-1%. Which is still 10-16 times more deadly than the flu. Without immunities, the is a substantial problem as the flu is at 0.06%, but with immunities will infect less than corona.

I’d say unless there is some sort of major breakthrough, I’d be prepared for social distancing measures to stay in place for ~6months.

Not the end of the world by any means, but it’s gonna get rough for a bit.
 
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Dthomas3523

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Pay particular attention to this video when he talks about why the death rate will increase.

While the virus itself may be around a 1% death rate, when the hospitals get overrun, we will basically manufacture a death rate increase that has more to do with us than the virus.

People who would have otherwise survived will be triaged as lower risk and then it kills them. Or we flat out won’t have the means necessary to take care of them.

We can easily turn a 1% death rate into 3%+ just by overwhelming the system.

As he points out. We still have to deal with the rest of the health problems we were dealing with a few months ago plus Coronavirus.

Keep all this in mind if you’re debating on going out when you really don’t need to. Our collective ignoring of social distance can literally kill people who would have otherwise survived.

 

Raffy

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Pay particular attention to this video when he talks about why the death rate will increase.

While the virus itself may be around a 1% death rate, when the hospitals get overrun, we will basically manufacture a death rate increase that has more to do with us than the virus.

People who would have otherwise survived will be triaged as lower risk and then it kills them. Or we flat out won’t have the means necessary to take care of them.

We can easily turn a 1% death rate into 3%+ just by overwhelming the system.

As he points out. We still have to deal with the rest of the health problems we were dealing with a few months ago plus Coronavirus.

Keep all this in mind if you’re debating on going out when you really don’t need to. Our collective ignoring of social distance can literally kill people who would have otherwise survived.

This^ is exactly what I was hoping was out there because it puts a perspective out there that is both true and not understood. Thank you for finding and posting this.

People think they will get sick and just go to the hospital and the hospital will give them all the right colored Bandaids and make them all better and send them home with a bag of ice and powdered tushie and a tylenol tablet.

Get real with what is coming or it is gonna get freaky real with you. And if it's getting real with you that puts me, my kids, and my pregnant wife at risk.
 

Dthomas3523

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Another troubling issue with the medical infrastructure:

Most people on ventilators are on them for 2 weeks ish. Most of those people will die.

So, statistically speaking. We are wasting 2 weeks of 70-85% of our ventilators while a possible 15-30% of people who would survive on the ventilator may not get one.

There’s no current way to know who will or won’t survive being on a ventilator. But based on current stats, 70-85% of the effort put into ventilators is just spinning our wheels in mud waiting to see who the 15-30% will come out on the other side. While others are waiting.

So, 100% of manpower and such for 30% at best. This is really going to drain the morale and energy of our healthcare workers who are already stretched thin. It’s hard to deal with that kind of stress knowing 7/10 likely won’t make it. From a mental health standpoint, people are going to start breaking down.
 

Snuby642

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Dont fret the numbers, the hospitals will triage thier way out of that soon enough.
The recovery rate will go up for treated patients.
 

clcustom1911

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Another troubling issue with the medical infrastructure:

Most people on ventilators are on them for 2 weeks ish. Most of those people will die.

So, statistically speaking. We are wasting 2 weeks of 70-85% of our ventilators while a possible 15-30% of people who would survive on the ventilator may not get one.

There’s no current way to know who will or won’t survive being on a ventilator. But based on current stats, 70-85% of the effort put into ventilators is just spinning our wheels in mud waiting to see who the 15-30% will come out on the other side. While others are waiting.

So, 100% of manpower and such for 30% at best. This is really going to drain the morale and energy of our healthcare workers who are already stretched thin. It’s hard to deal with that kind of stress knowing 7/10 likely won’t make it. From a mental health standpoint, people are going to start breaking down.
Yes, it sucks fighting a losing battle. Seeing people slowly drain away no matter what measures are taken is definitely an emotional experience the first few times. But, that's how the cookie crumbles. That's life.
 
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Raffy

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Someone I work with, but do not know, just started developing symptoms and tested positive. She has all the needed supplies and equipment and training relative to how to protect herself while working with infectious patients. She caught it while working, not community aquired. I can tell you that you are right. This thing is screwing with our brains.

I take all the same precautions as someone else and it didn't seem to matter anyways. But there must have been some opening or weak point in the armour or an accidental contamination somewhere that she was exposed to. Otherwise she would not have gotten it. So we try to be even more cautious and hope it doesn't happen again to anyone else at work, especially ourselves.

The community where I work isn't even that bad now. Fast forward to later and plug in major PPE shortages and departments running short staffed with multiple exposed/infected co workers who aren't allowed to work or be near their families and you don't even want to go to work because you have to trust that someone you don't know cleaned something you have to touch or use that was used on a patient who tested positive. Then there are the people who have it and no one knows it yet so then everything is a potential contamination source.

Then ther are jobs or responsibilities in the community. Bankers, grocers, repairmen, you name it. All also at risk because some people think it's a hoax or that they are invincible. Eventually it all comes full circle and the circle of life changes to a circle of virus because people just don't get it in their heads.

Luckily it isn't bad where I live, currently. New York is going through everything I just mentioned and more.

This isn't paranoia. This is real life in every hospital all over the Country. It is totally messing with peoples minds, and our families are similarly affected too.

Anyone who thinks this is paranoia needs to go eat dirt. After they are done with that snack come and take care of someone who tested positive with this virus with the above in mind and tell me how it tastes.

Don't get me wrong. I am grateful I have a job and it's a good job. I understand there are many who are hurting now financially because of this and it is stressful and hard. However, hospitals that have yet to be over run with the Covid 19 virus are hemorrhaging money now too because people aren't permitted to get procedures or surgeries or tests now but the hospital still has hundreds or even thousands of employees that are supposed to get paid, so we are getting sent home or given limited hours so they don't have to pay us too.

This thing is very real. Guys, please don't discount it as a conspiracy. I've debated about whether or not to post this long thing, but I feel it's important for some to read. Sorry for the rant, but it's all true.
 
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MosesTheTank

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Sounds a bit like "russians hacked the DNC", because there was a russian comment or block of code. But, we were told by experts it was the russians, so it was...I mean a super sophisticated phishing attack, yet no effort to hide their footsteps. Sounds probable, right?

Not doubting that you know your shit. But smarter fuckers than me and yes, even you, know what we already know...and more.

Keep that in mind. You know, as a scientist in search of fact.
So the analogy is that coronavirus has covered its tracks by masking or scrambling or spoofing its genetic data?
 

Dthomas3523

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Dont fret the numbers, the hospitals will triage thier way out of that soon enough.
The recovery rate will go up for treated patients.
I don’t think you quite grasp what’s happening.

The number of new infections have to start declining before this is possible.

Number of infections is going up, as well as the death rate. Which is in no way showing any trend of relieving strains.
 
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fitter539

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And thats all well and good.

but the problem with all these stats right now about death rate, etc, completely denies the fact that for being one of the most contagious viruses, people who want to pound on the 4-5% death rate, are ignoring that this virus was most likely in the USA since December.

Many, many people have gotten the virus already, beaten it, and then will test negative for it if they are tested now. I think there is an entire subset of data that is impossible to capture and thats contracted, undiagnosed cases, where the person recovered fully....OR the flip side of that coin, someone with an underlying condition or elderly died from it and it was diagnosed as pnuemonia.


everyone wants some factual stats, there is really no way to know since the data is very incomplete.
@Charger442 I believe I had it in mid January tested negative for flu strep and chest xrays inconclusive for pneumonia had a fever 103 for 3 days and a cough that wouldn't go away
 
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DarnYankeeUSMC

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Where can we find out the actual number of people that have had the virus?
Anyone?
?
?
?
?
?
No where!! That's the answer because no one, I'll say that again, NO ONE KNOWS how many people have had the virus and were never sick enough to seek medical attention. They assumed it was just the flu and did what most do. Theraflu, Tylenol, Motrin, soup and rest.

So all you that think these numbers are the end all be all should go back and remember what the media was saying in 16. Hillary was going to win by 93%.

Saying that you can extrapolate on the small data is bullshit. When you are using "small data sets" from only the worst cases you can only extrapolate on the "worst cases".

Start using more of your brain. Nevermind, keep on doing what you are doing. It'll make it easier for you to let your rights be trampled and then assist in loading others into train cars.
 

phlegethon

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Where can we find out the actual number of people that have had the virus?
Anyone?
?
?
?
?
?
No where!! That's the answer because no one, I'll say that again, NO ONE KNOWS how many people have had the virus and were never sick enough to seek medical attention. They assumed it was just the flu and did what most do. Theraflu, Tylenol, Motrin, soup and rest.

So all you that think these numbers are the end all be all should go back and remember what the media was saying in 16. Hillary was going to win by 93%.

Saying that you can extrapolate on the small data is bullshit. When you are using "small data sets" from only the worst cases you can only extrapolate on the "worst cases".

Start using more of your brain. Nevermind, keep on doing what you are doing. It'll make it easier for you to let your rights be trampled and then assist in loading others into train cars.
If your theory were true then more asymptomatic people would test positive.
 

DarnYankeeUSMC

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Go back and read some of your very own posts.
If your theory were true then more asymptomatic people would test positive.
There were NO tests available until when?
How many are available now?
Who's actually being tested?

We had a post from a doctor on the west coast. He stated that those with good oxygen levels were sent home. Did they get tested or only those with low oxygen levels that were admitted for medical attention?
Then you have one of the very first Americans that was a poster boy. He and his wife were quarantined on the cruise ship in Japan. CNN and others were having them on. He's tested positive more than five times with no symptoms. So how many have never been tested and yet maybe carrying? Why lock down the entire country.... because some maybe carrying and be not having symptoms or ever have them but may spread them?
Please don't contradict.
 

phlegethon

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Where are they testing asymptomatic people?
Iceland is testing fairly indiscriminately, only 50% asymptomatic. There was a town in Colorado where two cases where found and they tested the whole town, everyone else was negative. Nearly the whole Diamond Princess was tested and only half were asymptomatic (I've posted this at least a dozen times before). Other countries are testing a lot more than we are. So, no, there aren't that many asymptomatic.
 

phlegethon

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Go back and read some of your very own posts.

There were NO tests available until when?
How many are available now?
Who's actually being tested?

We had a post from a doctor on the west coast. He stated that those with good oxygen levels were sent home. Did they get tested or only those with low oxygen levels that were admitted for medical attention?
Then you have one of the very first Americans that was a poster boy. He and his wife were quarantined on the cruise ship in Japan. CNN and others were having them on. He's tested positive more than five times with no symptoms. So how many have never been tested and yet maybe carrying? Why lock down the entire country.... because some maybe carrying and be not having symptoms or ever have them but may spread them?
Please don't contradict.
I'm not contradicting anything.

Yes, we aren't testing enough
Yes, our test production is that of a third world country
Yes, despite that, a number of asymptomatic people have been tested for various reasons
Why lock down the entire country, because we still have exponential growth, we've seen that all over the globe until control measures were undertaken
 
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supercorndogs

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Iceland is testing fairly indiscriminately, only 50% asymptomatic. There was a town in Colorado where two cases where found and they tested the whole town, everyone else was negative. Nearly the whole Diamond Princess was tested and only half were asymptomatic (I've posted this at least a dozen times before). Other countries are testing a lot more than we are. So, no, there aren't that many asymptomatic.
So, asymptomatic people are testing positive? Link to the testing done in CO.

180 cases in Iceland. How many people did they test? On the surface it doesn't look like enough to be a significant sample.
 
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phlegethon

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So, asymptomatic people are testing positive? Link to the testing done in CO.

180 cases in Iceland. How many people did they test? On the surface it doesn't look like enough to be a significant sample.
 

EGwhisper

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And let's check in with John Hopkins this morning and see how things are going.....

View attachment 7286474
Wow, scary map. Looks like something out of Resident Evil.

The truth is, those numbers say there is a 0.0503% chance of getting COVID in the US based on a 327 million population. There is a 13.33% chance of death in the US if you do get it. So, as of today, the overall risk of getting COVID and Dying of COVID is 0.0503% x 13.33% = 0.0067%, or roughly 7 in 100,000.

WOW! Better stock up, that's a serious risk! I'll sell you some TP.
 

Deano2246

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Dont fret the numbers, the hospitals will triage thier way out of that soon enough.
The recovery rate will go up for treated patients.
Start Watching New Orleans, Their Hospitals are getting to the point of being overwhelmed so the mortality rates are climbing