Turns out Corona Virus threat is all horsecrap.

alpine44

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My reply was in relation to Saltys quote and statement that pure science does not exist.

Perhaps it is better to say absolute answers do not exist and that is the beauty of science.

Nor does pure math exist.

We are pretty sure their are absolutes but we never know.

There is a computer right now probably carrying PI out to the giga place hoping to prove it eventually repeats.

The problem is we live in a world that closes discussion with the words "It is settled science" and expects no further investigation of the matter.

Any scientist, or mathematician for that matter, says "this is the be all end all" isnt really following the tenent of their science.

Copernicus knew he was right while knowing everyone else was wrong.
I agree that our knowledge will advance and some of what we consider "settled" will have to be revised.

Unfortunately, many non scientists equate that with having being "wrong" when it mostly means that we expanded the domain of validity.

Einstein did not prove Newton wrong. He extended Newton's equations and theorems to be valid at larger and smaller scales, speeds, etc. For most daily tasks on Earth Newton's equations are plenty accurate. It's when you are zipping around at light speed that they break down.

Unfortunately, when we discuss things in normal life, we do not start statements with "Assuming this, that, and the other...", we blurt out "I think that..." without regards of the assumptions and whether these assumptions fit the problem at hand.

We have no prior experience with Covid-19. All we have is results from similar diseases and models that we know to describe these events correctly. Is to be expected that we are going to err with some of the parameters we plug into these models. This is uncharted territory. That does not mean however that these models are wrong or that the people making the predictions are all motivated by evil motives.
 
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E. Bryant

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Sorta kinda like the Alabama redneck shitting his brains out from food poisoning or a bacterial infection calling in sick from work, sez he has the flu , but hasn't been to the doc....

I think the number grapher argueiers saying flu are referring to influenza h1n1 varieties, but, unknowingly they could be referring to both grippe or gripaler effect combined because the reporting medium does not segregate. Do we know if it does segregate them in US figures. ??
Here is the US flu data which is sorted by strain according to test results:


Note the total number tested vs. the number of positive tests; most people who thought they were sick enough to get a test had something else. With what, I have no idea; my experience with bringing ill children to the doctor is that there are a lot of ways to get sick.
 

pmclaine

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I agree that our knowledge will advance and some of what we consider "settled" will have to be revised.

Unfortunately, many non scientists equate that with having being "wrong" when it mostly means that we expanded the domain of validity.

Einstein did not prove Newton wrong. He extended Newton's equations and theorems to be valid at larger and smaller scales, speeds, etc. For most daily tasks on Earth Newton's equations are plenty accurate. It's when you are zipping around at light speed that they break down.

Unfortunately, when we discuss things in normal life, we do not start statements with "Assuming this, that, and the other...", we blurt out "I think that..." without regards of the assumptions and whether these assumptions fit the problem at hand.

We have no prior experience with Covid-19. All we have is results from similar diseases and models that we know to describe these events correctly. Is to be expected that we are going to err with some of the parameters we plug into these models. This is uncharted territory. That does not mean however that these models are wrong or that the people making the predictions are all motivated by evil motives.

We have history of other disease and we should look at history to see how it was handled and try to do better.

Thing is that often entails making the mistake of fighting the wrong tactics because you are fighting the last war and the enemy has changed.

What we are doing now is better than the Spanish Flu response. WWI in some ways hindered that response and aggravated the sickness of the disease. Countries were unwilling to show they were being devstated as they tried to maintain the appearance of strength in the face of their enemies. The war itself came at a time when much of the world was exhausted and starving - the weak were ripe for the disease to take.

I think about the Polio epidemic.

Though perhaps not as virulent in my scale of things it was more devastating.

Id probably want to self quarantine. Id fear letting my kids within yards of anyone else........yet we functioned....and in the end we won.
 

alpine44

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We are all going to get CV-19. Many have already had it and dont know it.

The only reason for these big measures is to prevent the collapse of the hospitals.

The likes of Fauci predictong closures through the summer are crazy.

We are going to burn through the most vulnerable pretty quick I hate to say.

At some point it has to be protect the remaining most vulnerabel with quarantine while thos less at risk go back to work.
I am very torn on the statement that many people already had it without knowing it. I'll wait with my judgement until we have a statistically relevant number of antibody trsts.

The rest I agree with. With some discipline, we may get the numbers down to the point where we can get some portion of the population back into the "mills" soon. But that is not going to happen if teenagers and other folks who are not supporting anyone's lives lollygaggle around with their tribe because they are bored.

Keep in mind that folks like Dr. Fauci who come from the medical side have sworn to be conservative. Primum non nocere, bonum facere. First do no harm, then heal. There are voices in the medical community who call that the Hippocratic Albatross since almost everything is a double edged sword especially very effective treatments.
 
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pmclaine

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Sorry PS.....

That does not mean however that these models are wrong or that the people making the predictions are all motivated by evil motives.
Excuse my skepticism but with what has been going on in our govt for better than a decade now I have lost faith.

My government is not to be trusted.

I have gone from seeing and believing my govt to be benign but it is no longer that way.

Unsure how long you have embraced our culture but if its anywhere after 2001 you missed out on how good things could be.........Id hope you get to experience the America of my youth.

Im sad I didnt get the America of the 50's.

In the last couple elections its been a slur to say "What do you want to do bring it back to the 1950s?"

Well I dont want to return to the bad stuff of those days, when Dems were actively abusing people, but when it came to Patriotism, culture, and individual freedom yes I do want to go there.

Funny thing is the dems use that slur and they are the ones actively trying again to make slaves of all of us. They want the bad of the 50s while I want the good.

Im living under a government of the type I used to ridicule on overseas postings.
 
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This doc is raising some of the same complaints. It’s clear there’s pressure coming from somewhere to pump the numbers higher. It’s hard to guess what the altruistic reasons for that are.
 

DarnYankeeUSMC

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If they start allowing people to go out and get back to normal before the virus is completely gone. The whole shutdown was a fucking lie. It's simple. They said that we needed to sequester/quarrentine to stop the spread. Just because the numbers are dropping doesn't mean it won't start back in the other direction.
Use your brain people. It's a fucking joke. The government just signed $6 trillion in funny money and are about to do it again before the first checks ink is dry. Add to that the Constitution has been shit on by a bunch of tyrants and a large portion of the populace is in agreement. Because of their socialist fucking bullshit "it's only for a little while and it's for the betterment of the Society"
 

alpine44

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Sorry PS.....



Excuse my skepticism but with what has been going on in our govt for better than a decade now I have lost faith.

My government is not to be trusted.

I have gone from seeing and believing my govt to be benign but it is no longer that way.

Unsure how long you have embraced our culture but if its anywhere after 2001 you missed out on how good things could be.........Id hope you get to experience the America of my youth.

Im sad I didnt get the America of the 50's.

In the last couple elections its been a slur to say "What do you want to do bring it back to the 1950s?"

Well I dont want to return to the bad stuff of those days, when Dems were actively abusing people, but when it came to Patriotism, culture, and individual freedom yes I do want to go there.

Funny thing is the dems use that slur and they are the ones actively trying again to make slaves of all of us. They want the bad of the 50s while I want the good.

Im living under a government of the type I used to ridicule on overseas postings.
Been living here since 1988 and share your views.

If history is any guide, I think it is safe to assume that this pandemic will shift folks more towards nationalism, self-reliance, and conservative values. If we use this opportunity to kick the corrupt bums out, it is entirely possible that America will be significantly better after this crises.

There will be a period where we have to dig us out of this hole we are already in and that is getting deeper by the day. I do not think that any obstructionists or sell-outs like Shifty Shiff , Piglosy, or the un-elected deep state creeps etc. will gain much ground in that climate.

My parents, in their teens at the end of WWII, said that during the rebuild the doers and givers were in high regard and selfish takers were identified and kicked to the curb real quick.
 

j-huskey

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@E. Bryant

Re post 1652, thank you !.
Per the chart you posted,
Grippe and Gripaler effect are segregated into Flu (named) and Flu-like illnesses.
@alpine44

It is difficult to discern in 1600 plus replies in this topic alone (not to mention several thousand more in other covid topics) what numbers the greater unwashed argue as this drags on.
VR
 
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alpine44

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Hippocratic oath. Bwaahaha,
Too funny. History as a guide.
Free will is not as prevalent as you think.

If you grow up as a MD in an environment that is largely conservative, chances are that few will say: What the heck, let's just give it a shot. The risk of getting sued big time for any mistake is also not exactly contributing to creative risk taking. So don't expect Dr. Fauci to act like an entrepreneur.

Little Timmy is bratty and pushes the limits until Little Timmy get whacked by parent. Big Timmy does not act much differently if he gets whacked by a recession/depression.

What do you think is going to be the popularity of a "Green New Boondoggle" when the remains of our economy spiral in the toilet bowl? How will people like Socialism after they were locked up and saw empty shelves in the stores?
 
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pmclaine

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Been living here since 1988 and share your views.

If history is any guide, I think it is safe to assume that this pandemic will shift folks more towards nationalism, self-reliance, and conservative values. If we use this opportunity to kick the corrupt bums out, it is entirely possible that America will be significantly better after this crises.

There will be a period where we have to dig us out of this hole we are already in and that is getting deeper by the day. I do not think that any obstructionists or sell-outs like Shifty Shiff , Piglosy, or the un-elected deep state creeps etc. will gain much ground in that climate.

My parents, in their teens at the end of WWII, said that during the rebuild the doers and givers were in high regard and selfish takers were identified and kicked to the curb real quick.

Im not totally tin foil hatted but there are interests beyond the shores of our country that have been working for a long time to bring about our failure and they have been helped by true believers from right here.

They have an idea of a post nationalist world run by an enlightened elite composed of themselves.

The biggest stumbling block to that is the USA and our quaint ideas of individual rights and our successful economic system that puts our standard of living above that of much of the world.

To have their dream it is required that a commonality of living standards needs to be created.

They have been educating for two generations toward having people here give up their quality of life willingly.

They were on the verge of reaching their goal and I think Trump fucked it up for them royally.

Agenda 21, conspiracy or not, was aptly named. It will be at least Agenda 31 now if they intend to get back on track.

Very good press conference tonight. Actually some optimism from Herr and Herren Doctors.

I wouldnt advocate for stopping anything that we are doing right now.

Lets give it to the present next date to analyze the data.

Im sticking to my gut instinct guess of 30-40K sadly lost.

Its a horrible number but not one that would allow to continue to destroy the lives of 10 million newly unemployed.
 

Dippy

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My buddy just said his work going to make all employees get their foreheads scanned before they can clock in.........


This shits gettin got fucking creepy man
 

OldSalty

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My buddy just said his work going to make all employees get their foreheads scanned before they can clock in.........


This shits gettin got fucking creepy man
Seems reasonable to take someones temperature, no?
 

Dippy

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Seems reasonable to take someones temperature, no?
Fuck no. My body temperature is my business and no one else’s.

What happens to me if my temperature is slightly elevated, they gonna put my into a forced quarantine? Put me one some damn government list? Fuck them. This shits spiraled out of control.
 

j-huskey

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My buddy just said his work going to make all employees get their foreheads scanned before they can clock in.........


This shits gettin got fucking creepy man
Hospital and several doctors offices scans every employee for fever twice a day, and does the symptom questionnaire with it both times, every day.
Some fire and police are doing it. Some mil units are doing it.
Nothing new, malicious, or creepy, just cautious.
You would be surprised if you knew how many places have been doing it and due to catching the fever early started early intervention and had quicker recovery.

Please reassure your buddy it's nothing nefarious.
 

OldSalty

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Hospital and several doctors offices scans every employee for fever twice a day, and does the symptom questionnaire with it both times, every day.
Some fire and police are doing it. Some mil units are doing it.
Nothing new, malicious, or creepy, just cautious.
You would be surprised if you knew how many places have been doing it and due to catching the fever early started early intervention and had quicker recovery.

Please reassure your buddy it's nothing nefarious.
Exactly, well said.

But then you got this shit going on...

 

Dippy

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Hospital and several doctors offices scans every employee for fever twice a day, and does the symptom questionnaire with it both times, every day.
Some fire and police are doing it. Some mil units are doing it.
Nothing new, malicious, or creepy, just cautious.
You would be surprised if you knew how many places have been doing it and due to catching the fever early started early intervention and had quicker recovery.

Please reassure your buddy it's nothing nefarious.
It’s all just creeping me out.
 

j-huskey

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Exactly, well said.

But then you got this shit going on...

And with that shit going on, his fellow officers should give him a barracks blanket party or throw his ass off a roof, in my 38 year LE opinion.
If he worked for me, he'd be on decontamination duty in the mens room until the investigation was over.
That's not much different from coughing on produce in the market. To me.... just sayin.

If the investigation proved malicious intent, fired, post certification pulled, and posted on every news outlet, name and picture. Jmho
 

Dippy

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Understood, and my thoughts are with you daily Brother.
Stay strong and encourage another Brother, pay it forward, and you know the reward.
VR
Thanks man. Everything’s good on my end.

I ready for all this to be over. It’s really turned into some manufacturer BS
 
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DarnYankeeUSMC

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All that to say. He should be kicked in the nuts!! Then fired.
And with that shit going on, his fellow officers should give him a barracks blanket party or throw his ass off a roof, in my 38 year LE opinion.
If he worked for me, he'd be on decontamination duty in the mens room until the investigation was over.
That's not much different from coughing on produce in the market. To me.... just sayin.

If the investigation proved malicious intent, fired, post certification pulled, and posted on every news outlet, name and picture. Jmho
 

Gaznazdiak

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Sorry PS.....



Excuse my skepticism but with what has been going on in our govt for better than a decade now I have lost faith.

My government is not to be trusted.

I have gone from seeing and believing my govt to be benign but it is no longer that way.

Unsure how long you have embraced our culture but if its anywhere after 2001 you missed out on how good things could be.........Id hope you get to experience the America of my youth.

Im sad I didnt get the America of the 50's.

In the last couple elections its been a slur to say "What do you want to do bring it back to the 1950s?"

Well I dont want to return to the bad stuff of those days, when Dems were actively abusing people, but when it came to Patriotism, culture, and individual freedom yes I do want to go there.

Funny thing is the dems use that slur and they are the ones actively trying again to make slaves of all of us. They want the bad of the 50s while I want the good.

Im living under a government of the type I used to ridicule on overseas postings.
I'm with you there PM.

I'm a child of the 50s and 60s, we are talking different countries but similar sentiments.
Obviously, as a child, politicians weren't in my world view at the time, but I do remember the zeitgeist.
The world we live in now is more like some dystopian fever dream in comparison.???
 
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theLBC

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TOTAL deaths in the US this March, from all causes, is 15% lower than each of the last four years. Weird.
 

Bradu

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Hospital and several doctors offices scans every employee for fever twice a day, and does the symptom questionnaire with it both times, every day.
Some fire and police are doing it. Some mil units are doing it.
Nothing new, malicious, or creepy, just cautious.
You would be surprised if you knew how many places have been doing it and due to catching the fever early started early intervention and had quicker recovery.

Please reassure your buddy it's nothing nefarious.
I went to get my asthma injections and I was greeted at the door and asked what department I was going to. They checked my temperature and gave me a mask before I could go inside. I'm fine with these types of checks because it can prevent someone going inside and getting the other patients or staff sick. I'm trying to be cautious since I'm high risk and haven't left the house for two weeks but at the same time I realize that my wife is likely to bring it home from working in a pharmacy. Two people she works with has been quarantined in the past week for being in contact with people that have tested positive for covid-19.
 

Dthomas3523

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TOTAL deaths in the US this March, from all causes, is 15% lower than each of the last four years. Weird.
You checked each cause and they were each equally down 15% ?

Or the total number of deaths is down 15% ?

Last time I checked, total was down *because* accidental deaths were down about 50%.

Logically speaking with people being required to stay inside, the total number of deaths will decrease. Nothing weird about it at all.
 

Gaznazdiak

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I went to get my asthma injections and I was greeted at the door and asked what department I was going to. They checked my temperature and gave me a mask before I could go inside. I'm fine with these types of checks because it can prevent someone going inside and getting the other patients or staff sick. I'm trying to be cautious since I'm high risk and haven't left the house for two weeks but at the same time I realize that my wife is likely to bring it home from working in a pharmacy. Two people she works with has been quarantined in the past week for being in contact with people that have tested positive for covid-19.
Good luck mate.
On a slight downer, it was reported here in Australia yesterday that a father and son who had just finished 14 days in quarantine after arriving from overseas have tested positive.
No mention of symptoms, but they tested positive, it seems that either they were infected in quarantine or the incubation period is highly variable.
 
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theLBC

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You checked each cause and they were each equally down 15% ?

Or the total number of deaths is down 15% ?

Last time I checked, total was down *because* accidental deaths were down about 50%.

Logically speaking with people being required to stay inside, the total number of deaths will decrease. Nothing weird about it at all.
i'm sure accidents is part of it, but also maybe the harmless seasonal flu was killing more people the last 4 years than this year,
maybe lots of people died in february?

According to the CDC’s website, in March 2020 there were a total of 193,000 deaths in the US. The average number of deaths in the US for March over the four years prior to 2020 (2016 – 2019) is 227,000. The difference between this year and the average for the past four years is 34,000. 2020 deaths are 85% of the average of the prior four years.
 

DarnYankeeUSMC

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Dr. Fauci is a fucking tool, he's on Bill Gates payroll.
And then this


I didn't see that @smoooth1 had already posted the article
 
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Gaznazdiak

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I can't begin to imagine the anxiety of having 2 young children with temps of +40°
Parents take note:

'Very lonely and very scared': What it's like when both your kids come down with coronavirus
 

E. Bryant

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TOTAL deaths in the US this March, from all causes, is 15% lower than each of the last four years. Weird.
I gotta imagine that simply closing down the bars is responsible for a portion of that, as is eliminating the daily 5PM commuter stupidity. Shelter in place orders have perhaps reduced violent crime to some extent. But it would take a reduction in heart disease, stroke, and cancer to really make a dent in mortality numbers, and I don't have easy explanations for any reduction in those areas.

I am curious to see how behavior does (or doesn't) change coming out of this. Maybe there are permanent shifts where we appreciate the fleeting nature of life, or maybe there is a "rebound" effect and the month of May turns into four weeks straight of July 4th, mortality-wise. I suspect we all know what is more likely ;)
 

wade2big

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And then this


I didn't see that @smoooth1 had already posted the article
I said Fauci was a piece of shit when this all started because of him spouting fake and contradicting statistics on day freaking one. That was well before I learned that he would be making millions off of this.
 

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Fuck no. My body temperature is my business and no one else’s.

What happens to me if my temperature is slightly elevated, they gonna put my into a forced quarantine? Put me one some damn government list? Fuck them. This shits spiraled out of control.
He’s got a point.
 

wade2big

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I can't begin to imagine the anxiety of having 2 young children with temps of +40°
Parents take note:

'Very lonely and very scared': What it's like when both your kids come down with coronavirus
LOL.
So basically they got sick like kids do and where perfectly fine after all just as what has been reported all along. They are now immune, congratulations.
 
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MTN

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I said Fauci was a piece of shit when this all started because of him spouting fake and contradicting statistics on day freaking one. That was well before I learned that he would be making millions off of this.
I want to see stats on how many times this particular corona virus has mutated since wuhan. Best to you and your vaccine but they can shove it on principle should it be mandatory.

And anyone that compares this to the polio vaccine is a pooosy.
 

pmclaine

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But it would take a reduction in heart disease, stroke, and cancer to really make a dent in mortality numbers, and I don't have easy explanations for any reduction in those areas.
If that is happening the explanation is that their serious co-morbidity was agravated by CV-19 and COD is called CV-19.

or

the powers that be have their orders - No mater what the COD its CV-19.
 
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OldSalty

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If that is happening the explanation is that their serious co-morbidity was agravated by CV-19 and COD is called CV-19.

or

the powers that be have their orders - No mater what the COD its CV-19.
From what I have been reading its both and inconsistent.

The downside to this is we will likely not have an accurate accounting of true cv19 deaths. Which may impact future modeling and elected response.
 
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