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What's going on with commodity prices?

Short-bus

Short-bus

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What the hell is going on with gold/silver prices today? What's messing with me is that typically when you have high inflation the price of gold goes up as well. Today however gold is currently down nearly 2%, silver down 5%. I know that a bunch of y'alls are way smarter than me, any insight to help me wrap my little mind around why? My 2nd quarter investment account statement came out and we were down 11.88% for q2, and we lost 3% in the first quarter, but the economy is "doing well" according to Pedo Pete. If it's doing well, why am I losing double digit percentages on a up economy?

Branden
 
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Im no expert but Id guess its do to lack of production of items like chips which use a log of gold (it doesnt oxidize). check car lots...no, on very few new cars and trucks. Supply and demand.
 
My gold and silver bug friends usually attribute large counter market trends to anti free market forces. ( central banks )
 
Short-bus said:
What the hell is going on with gold/silver prices today? What's messing with me is that typically when you have high inflation the price of gold goes up as well. Today however gold is currently down nearly 2%, silver down 5%. I know that a bunch of y'alls are way smarter than me, any insight to help me wrap my little mind around why? My 2nd quarter investment account statement came out and we were down 11.88% for q2, and we lost 3% in the first quarter, but the economy is "doing well" according to Pedo Pete. If it's doing well, why am I losing double digit percentages on a up economy?

Branden
Click to expand...
Be glad you are only down 11%!
 
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SilentStalkr said:
Oh I’m well beyond that from last years gains. I’m well below what I had in 2018! Literally now worth less than half what I was this time last year!
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Yeah, a buddy of mine from the Seattle area has lost about 3 million. turned him from fat and near retired to a working stiff.
 
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Ignore silver and gold spot price.

Paper and Physical have been separating for a while now. Paper is worthless and Physical demands huge premiums. Try to buy an OZ of silver for less than $32 and a OZ of Gold for less than $18-1900.
 
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DeathBeforeDismount said:
Ignore silver and gold spot price.

Paper and Physical have been separating for a while now. Paper is worthless and Physical demands huge premiums. Try to buy an OZ of silver for less than $32 and a OZ of Gold for less than $18-1900.
Click to expand...
Silver can be bought for $22.38 an ounce all day long at bullion dealers. But spot is about $18 and change. Check Apmex, among others. 10 Oz bars paid with check or transfer... $223.80 if you buy in some level of bulk.

www.apmex.com

Buy 10 oz Silver Bars | .999 fine Silver bars | APMEX®

Buy 10 oz Silver bars online on APMEX.com. .999 fine Silver bars. Enjoy fast and free shipping. 100% satisfaction guaranteed. Shop - APMEX
www.apmex.com www.apmex.com

I can't explain the drop either. It's usually going up when everything else is going to shit. It's dropped about $4 in a couple of weeks. That is totally the opposite of what I would expect.

So it is bizarre. I've been buying physical silver for a while because silver in hand is going to be trading material and more liquid than gold if we 'need' to use it. A gold coin is hard to buy groceries with if SHTF. A 5 oz silver boy or a 1 oz coin will be... trading material. That it is down a bit, I don't care. It's an inflation hedge and a way to have something other than paper money around if needed.

Interesting thread and I am definitely following it.

Cheers,

Sirhr
 
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iu
 
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I'll just hold my position on my Mutual Funds...pretty sure 90% of the existing top Corporations are not going broke and if they do?

We'll have much bigger problems than money...can't eat it, can't wear it, can't burn enough to stay warm. Won't protect you. Short term all my shit is paid for - no house payment/rent, no car payment and we don't need to borrow any money. Eating out of the garden and checking/savings and waiting this out. And if it's The End? It ain't. In 3 - 5 years I'll be back in black and making money again on investments and all the chicken littles who sold/bailed will be begging.

I'm just chilling with $120K cash waiting for the near bottom and then I'm gonna buy a bunch of cheap stock and ride it right back to where it was. Just watch. The key is to have enugh stuff saved and available to ride out the next few years and stay fed. housed, clothed, and medicated. and armed...I got that.

VooDoo
 
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My commodities shorts are doing fantastic. As I said before, all bullish analysts are dumb, wrong , and/or lying.
 
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great thread… I noticed my “zombie fund” which is all commodities, gold, and precious metal mining companies shitting the bed for a few weeks now and got curious. A lot is the industrial use plunging from everybody tightening the corporate and even personal life belts, but I have to think it’ll swing fast the other direction.

Buying more physical gold right now as a matter of fact…have Apmex, and JM Bullion accounts, but funny enough, most of the stuff I get online is actually shipped from money metals.
 
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I miss the returns I was getting under Trump. Even with a q1 2020 loss of 18%, we still finished the year up 24%, and our worst year under Trump was still up 14%. Make some money with Trump, and i'm going to lose it all with Pedo Pete. I'm not panicking, I have a long time before I retire, and a smart banker CEO I know told me at my age you don't panic, you look for the bottom, and you put more money in at the bottom, because you I have a long time before I retire. He is close to retirement however, so dips and downswings effect him far more harshly.

Thanks for all the great comments and insight, and please keep it coming.

Branden
 
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Bigfatcock said:
My commodities shorts are doing fantastic. As I said before, all bullish analysts are dumb, wrong , and/or lying.
Click to expand...
Want to explain for all the slow people?

Short-bus said:
I miss the returns I was getting under Trump. Even with a q1 2020 loss of 18%, we still finished the year up 24%, and our worst year under Trump was still up 14%. Make some money with Trump, and i'm going to lose it all with Pedo Pete. I'm not panicking, I have a long time before I retire, and a smart banker CEO I know told me at my age you don't panic, you look for the bottom, and you put more money in at the bottom, because you I have a long time before I retire. He is close to retirement however, so dips and downswings effect him far more harshly.

Thanks for all the great comments and insight, and please keep it coming.

Branden
Click to expand...
Exactly. I miss it too. I had a 52% return in 2020😮! Literally. 2021 was like 45%. Now I’m super down. Ran through all those gains fast and am well below what I started with in 2018! People can say what they want about Trump and I still don’t really know who’s side the dude is on, but I can say he did wonders for my investments.
 
Check out this chart. These precious metal derivatives are pretty much the paper gold and silver that get created and then shorted to keep the real value of the physical commodity suppressed. Something happened this year that must have scared the hell out of whatever entity is hellbent on keeping the price artificially low. This paper suppression along with the rising interest rate on the USD is taking the shine off of gold right now. Judging by the chart, I wonder who tried to settle their paper gold contracts by requesting redemption in physical gold?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
2022-07-11_14-42-53.jpg
 
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Short-bus said:
What the hell is going on with gold/silver prices today? What's messing with me is that typically when you have high inflation the price of gold goes up as well. Today however gold is currently down nearly 2%, silver down 5%. I know that a bunch of y'alls are way smarter than me, any insight to help me wrap my little mind around why? My 2nd quarter investment account statement came out and we were down 11.88% for q2, and we lost 3% in the first quarter, but the economy is "doing well" according to Pedo Pete. If it's doing well, why am I losing double digit percentages on a up economy?
Click to expand...
Since gold is used in tech a lot and not so long ago crypto market crashed, probably lowered demand for chips and other stuff. But that's just my guess.
 
SilentStalkr said:
Want to explain for all the slow people?
Click to expand...
People the world over are broke AF. Specifically the United States consumer is broke AF.

As the worlds largest consumer of everything, when we’re broke AF everything is impacted.

As soon as gas hit $4.00 I started building short positions, since $4+ gas was the domino that started the Great Recession.

If you’re investing for retirement, then continue to DCA into high quality companies. Not shit meme stonks and dog coins.
 
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All the big dogs have been moving their fiat based assets into hard assets. Why do you think Gates owns all that farmland. Holding a piece of paper might not help you much where we're apparently heading.
 
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rtB said:
All the big dogs have been moving their fiat based assets into hard assets. Why do you think Gates owns all that farmland. Holding a piece of paper might not help you much where we're apparently heading.
Click to expand...
Yepper. At 10% inflation, your $100,000 today is only worth $90,000 next year, If you hold it another year, $81,000, and so on until finally youve got (poor) toilet paper.
 
Bigfatcock said:
People the world over are broke AF. Specifically the United States consumer is broke AF.

As the worlds largest consumer of everything, when we’re broke AF everything is impacted.

As soon as gas hit $4.00 I started building short positions, since $4+ gas was the domino that started the Great Recession.

If you’re investing for retirement, then continue to DCA into high quality companies. Not shit meme stonks and dog coins.
Click to expand...
along those lines, people confuse retirement and passing on wealth /inheritance

investing for either one is a different strat depending monies available and your age
 
Never put all your eggs in one basket.
One option - Gather up all those loose $100 green backs you can spare (your play money) and stuff them in a mattress.
As a few more $100's show up, stuff them in the mattress.
I know, I know - "But inflation is eating them up"... Things will turn around after the "pain"... May take 2 years.
At some point your green backs will regain their value faster than the S&P 500..... At the depth of this recession "Cash is King", deals will be found.
The voice of experience has spoken.
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Never put all your eggs in one basket.
One option - Gather up all those loose $100 green backs you can spare (your play money) and stuff them in a mattress.
As a few more $100's show up, stuff them in the mattress.
I know, I know - "But inflation is eating them up"... Things will turn around after the "pain"... May take 2 years.
At some point your green backs will regain their value faster than the S&P 500..... At the depth of this recession "Cash is King", deals will be found.
The voice of experience has spoken.
Click to expand...
I’m waiting to snap up some deals from over leveraged people.
 
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Geno C. said:
Man, I made some awesome deals during the 08-09 deal. Some pretty sweet firearms for 1/2 the money. When a guy needs cash… pawn shops get pretty stacked too
Click to expand...
I love competing with what the Pawn Shop offer's.... Just hang around outside when a guy shows up with a gun or power tool.. Tell him you will give him $10 more than the guy in the Pawn Shop.
 
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Short-bus said:
What the hell is going on with gold/silver prices today? What's messing with me is that typically when you have high inflation the price of gold goes up as well. Today however gold is currently down nearly 2%, silver down 5%. I know that a bunch of y'alls are way smarter than me, any insight to help me wrap my little mind around why? My 2nd quarter investment account statement came out and we were down 11.88% for q2, and we lost 3% in the first quarter, but the economy is "doing well" according to Pedo Pete. If it's doing well, why am I losing double digit percentages on a up economy?

Branden
Click to expand...

One interesting thing would be to try to actually take physical delivery of legit government minted gold or silver coins, in any significant quantity (as in not like just a couple), and see how much you have to pay and how long it takes before they deliver to you.

In my opinion the gold and silver markets have been being "guided" for a long time to make sure that it doesn't set off the warning bells to the hoi poi that something is wrong with their paper money. Most folks that trade in gold/silver just trade in paper and don't actually care as long as they make money.

From what I heard, folks that wanted physical delivery of several thousand ounces at once were pretty much having to wait a really long time.

However on the other side, during really difficult / really bad times, gold and silver tend to not be worth as much as the actual goods / services.
With the price of everything tangible going up 10% to 20% or more, that may be also adding a bit of pressure to the whole what do you want to stockpile thing.
 
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Geno C. said:
Man, I made some awesome deals during the 08-09 deal. Some pretty sweet firearms for 1/2 the money. When a guy needs cash… pawn shops get pretty stacked too
Click to expand...
^^^ This! I bought a bunch of English shotguns at, basically, 20 cents on the dollar. They are liquid, transferable and there is almost always a demand. And beautiful!!

Sirhr
 
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Bigfatcock said:
I’m on the hunt for industrial wood working equipment. Would like to outfit another shop.
Click to expand...
Tools and stuff (and skills) that can be used to repair other people's stuff is going to be invaluable if things really do go to shit. Disposable societies turn rapidly into... restore, repair, reuse, recycle... not because of some Gaia Eco-muppet faggotry... but because you can't afford new shit. Or get it if you could afford it.

Being able to build, make and fix things is a skill that is in incredible demand even today. Because little retards who can work their thumb phones like demons, can't even put air in a tire.

Handyman skills are a commodity. And one that is very, very valuable. And can't be stolen from you.

Cheers,

Sirhr
 
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SilentStalkr said:
Oh I’m well beyond that from last years gains. I’m well below what I had in 2018! Literally now worth less than half what I was this time last year!
Click to expand...
Got to pay for all the illegals flooding the border somehow! Doc bills, cellphones, baby formula, free transportation to the state of their choosing!
 
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Snipe260 said:
Got to pay for all the illegals flooding the border somehow! Doc bills, cellphones, baby formula, free transportation to the state of their choosing!
Click to expand...
You have hit upon one more of my "economic indicators"... Prior to the crash of the Oil Patch all of the board roads going to the locations of the drilling rigs were built by the Mexican's... Industry crashed and the Mexican's went back to Mexico. Cycles repeat just as sure as the sun will rise in the morning. Watch for the Exodus.
___________

1980s Oil Glut​

During 1979-1980 period, crude oil prices were rapidly increasing, and they reached a peak in April 1980 at over $35/bbl. Naturally, oil production increased and oil producing countries found themselves fighting for market share. High prices and rising output were followed by a reduction in demand as industrial processes and automobiles were becoming more energy efficient. In addition, economic activity in industrial countries slowed due to the 1970s financial crises, and in June 1981 The New York Times proclaimed that an “oil glut” had arrived. This oil glut was initially viewed as a temporary surplus, which later transformed into a six-year decline in oil prices.
 
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NoDopes said:
Back then the US government wasn't handing out iphones and credit cards to all illegals either.
Click to expand...
The "Government" is swallowing some nasty medicine as we speak... It will get worse. I'd expect "We the People" to wise up and get rid of the career politicians (both parties). But, as I have said before, America has culture issues. Hunger will be a powerful tool to change some of the recent culture protocols. We will see.
 
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Bigfatcock said:
I’m waiting to snap up some deals from over leveraged people.
Click to expand...
Here's what I have seen in the past.
A person wants / needs a home. The housing market moves away from their pre-qual. They have a chunk of cash burning a hole in their pocket. Can't buy a house so they buy "collectables", premium weapons, Automobiles, etc and continue to pay rent on an apartment. Recession brings reality to the housing market, interest rates come down and one day that person looks back at all the cash that was spent on toys. They say to themselves "If I would have not bought that stuff, I would now have enough cash to put a nice down on this house and qualify for reasonable financing". Doing the same thing, over and over and expecting a different outcome.
They sell the toys for 50% of what they paid to scrape up cash for a house.
 
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Maggot said:
Im no expert but Id guess its do to lack of production of items like chips which use a log of gold (it doesnt oxidize). check car lots...no, on very few new cars and trucks. Supply and demand.
Click to expand...

Thats not entirely true.
 
sirhrmechanic said:
Geno C posted a chart showing that copper was about the lowest in ages... I mean plunged! WAY down.

"Wonder if boolit prices will drop," to quote @Geno C.

Somehow... I doubt it.

Sirhr
Click to expand...

Well damn. I have a few hundred pounds in the garage waiting to go in!

Prices always change by the day, and my local scrap dealer is a solid dude who gives me a better price anytime I bring in more than a hundred pounds.
 
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I'm not convinced the manipulation in price is all that significant. Gold & silver on the consumer market isn't impossible to find and the premium over spot has been tracking with the changes. If there was actually high demand with that much manipulation, the availability should be near absent and premiums should not follow direction with spot price. This did happen for a few weeks during some of the massive swings with the 2020 market downturn when metals dropped a lot but price stayed firm, not really since though. Also haven't seen mention that industry buyers are failing to get deliveries?
 
Been watching the spiral... Another 4 bucks and I'm below my cost basis (sorta. Mom was a high class prepper so metal was accquired when she passed). Still glad I didn't trade for paper when it was bumping $30.00/oz.
 
Last edited:
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Hobo Hilton said:
Never put all your eggs in one basket.
One option - Gather up all those loose $100 green backs you can spare (your play money) and stuff them in a mattress.
As a few more $100's show up, stuff them in the mattress.
I know, I know - "But inflation is eating them up"... Things will turn around after the "pain"... May take 2 years.
At some point your green backs will regain their value faster than the S&P 500..... At the depth of this recession "Cash is King", deals will be found.
The voice of experience has spoken.
Click to expand...
Oh I’ve got money sitting to buy some deals. My only problem is, I wish I had like $600k sitting on the sideline to buy some deals.
 
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