Where’s all the evictions and foreclosures?

[padronanniversary]

People have been saying for a while after the protections are over which expired last month evictions and foreclosures are going to be biblical

So where is all of this ? Seems all recreational spending is at all time high and stores can’t keep up

 

[deersniper]

I just evicted a scumbag and have a second one in the works. People suck

 

[isofahunter]

I have 3 on the tee, I am out of patience.

 

[hafejd30]

I thought Trump just signed an executive order that you couldn’t be evicted until after December 1 or end of the year? I could be wrong

 

[Redmanss]

Many states still have eviction moratoriums in effect. https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclop...enant-protections-related-to-coronavirus.html

Add to that FHFA still has a moratorium on foreclosures using FMFM mortgage funding. https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAf...eclosure-and-Eviction-Moratorium-6172020.aspx

 

[W54/XM-388]

A lot of places quietly extended the bans on evictions so as to kick the can down the road till after the election.

 

[Maggot]

You really cant blame the average Joe. He got fucked by this Chinese attack just like every body else.

 

[deersniper]

You really cant blame the average Joe. He got fucked by this Chinese attack just like every body else.

Scumbags got plenty of money for drugs and alcohol and vacations and cars and TVs and cable etc.

Electric bill is still due. Mortgage is still due. Property maintenance still has to be done.

 

[45cal4life]

^^^ And that's why I have no desire to become a landlord

 

[HousePlant]

Precisely why I sold my three homes. Being a landlord was awful. You either have 100 properties or it's not worth it.

 

[Maggot]

Scumbags got plenty of money for drugs and alcohol and vacations and cars and TVs and cable etc.

Electric bill is still due. Mortgage is still due. Property maintenance still has to be done.

I said average Joe, not average doper. A lot of good people are hurting because of this.

 

[roamin]

Scumbags got plenty of money for drugs and alcohol and vacations and cars and TVs and cable etc.

Electric bill is still due. Mortgage is still due. Property maintenance still has to be done.

If they can't pay they need to GTFO using legislation to force landlords and mortgage companies to be peoples mommy and daddy is BS. This is why people are told they need at least a 6 month emergency fund IMO if you don't have one you either can't afford to be a home owner or to rent where you are.

 

[Bender]

How is BFC doin? He got some coin

 

[Redmanss]

I said average Joe, not average doper. A lot of good people are hurting because of this.

And that extra $600/wk in unemployment has propped the average Joe and Jane up.

 

[roamin]

I was hoping to see the ROI of multi family listings come up over all of this it's still at 3-4%.

 

[308pirate]

Bring some with your to your next property inspection and discreetly place random drops here and there.

Be sure to wear a mask. For the children.

When the tenants complain, "sorry I can't find the source" as you depart after "refreshing" the scent.

Liquid ASS is an overwhelming, stinky, funny prank product.

Once unleashed, this power–packed liquid begins to evaporate filling the air with a genuine butt–crack smell with hints of dead animal and fresh poo.

liquidass.com

 

[BytorJr]

I keep wondering when all these 30 year olds with the 4000 sq foot house and 5 car garage are going to have their asses handed to them....waiting....just waiting. I'm not exaggerating either. Unbelievable. Oh, and each garage bay has a < 5 year old car or maybe 1 has bikes and the rest all car (car = vehicle). would love to know their debt/income ratio.

 

[ManUtdManiac]

it's coming. rest assured. I'd appreciate it if you'd not totally trash the kitchen or bathroom as water damage is more expensive to fix. Oh, and please, take your fucking lynard skynard posters with you. Fuck is wrong with you?

 

[Bigfatcock]

How is BFC doin? He got some coin

Still balling financially and still balling on women.

Even though I gave my renters 2 months no rent, they paid anyway and continue to pay. Good people. One wants to buy the house they are renting, and I’ll probably sell it to them.

 

[padronanniversary]

I’m curious as to the correction to the market this will bring. I wonder if lenders will tighten their belts much like 2008/2009.

So flood of rentals and foreclosures, will it drive down prices ? Seems homes in my area average is 2-3 days on market. and usually asking price or more. With interest rates so low people are getting approved for so much more.
I keep thinking with a flood of open rentals and people with evictions not being able to rent prices of rentals would go down.

But big question is what happens to all these people without homes or rentals ?

 

[Mr.BR]

You really cant blame the average Joe. He got fucked by this Chinese attack just like every body else.

Yes but the land lord is the one left holding the bag. Ban on evictions is BS , as there is no mechanism to fix the income loss for the owners of the properties. Its just government mandating landlords to take one for the team ,while just about everyone else gets compensated in some sort of mechanism.

Had to lower the rent for the 'rona' lockdown months, at the same time the city council doubled the property tax from last year.
Most of my tenants are students so at least ,they vacated on contract terms.Still building 3 more apartments for next year ,as ultimately demand will return .

 

[W54/XM-388]

Do you think the local governments will be happy to let the landlords and lenders not bother paying the property taxes since they are prohibited from forcing people to pay?

Something tells me they still want all their money on time..

Now if eviction and foreclosure freezes were immediately coupled with no need to pay property taxes, you can bet the policies would be ended instantly.

 

[Mike_Honcho]

The elephant in the room is Commercial. D Govs & COVID shot Retail in the head. Office? Everyone is rethinking their sqft needs...

 

[W54/XM-388]

Retail is probably never going to fully recover.
Now that Amazon just got handed a monopoly on a lot of commerce for several months straight & got everyone hooked on sitting at home, they have a lot of inertia in their favour.

Walmart will probably continue to be just fine, but I expect for many other retail places, it may not be worth opening your doors again. Malls are going to have to find something else like tearing everything down and building apartments or such.

 

[Mr.BR]

The elephant in the room is Commercial. D Govs & COVID shot Retail in the head. Office? Everyone is rethinking their sqft needs...

Not to mention in many places its taxed much higher than residential, for my workshop i am paying 5+ times more per square metre than for the apartments.

 

[Fig]

It's coming. It takes a while. There's a digestion lag.

Commercial leases are typically 5 years. It will trickle into the market.

Retail was fucked by Amazon and online before Rona. Rona just administered the coup de gras. Some people are making retail deals right now. They're gong the opposite way of the flock... Works sometimes. I'm looking at a few deals.

Office may go either way. Some are bailing on office while others are expanding to accommodate social distancing. There will be a lot of vacancy, but again it will be trickling in rather than in a torrent.

Industrial is on fire. Supply chains are returning to the US. Manufacturing is kicking into high gear, and there is precious little inventory (especially under 10K'. I see industrial as being hot for years to come if Trump gets reelected. If Biden wins and throws a wet blanket on an already hurt economy (like Obama did) we're all fucked, and we can look forward to another lost decade under Democrat mismanagement of our economy.

Residential real estate outside of cities is also on fire with super low inventories.
We have a lot of vacation property now, and it is CRUSHING it. We are booked out more than a year now.

 

[Mr.BR]

''Industrial is on fire. Supply chains are returning to the US. Manufacturing is kicking into high gear'' very little supply chain is truly returning back to the US. most Is just moving from China to the next sweatshop country that is even cheaper than China( Vietnam ,Mexico..) ,there is no demand for overpriced consumer goods, especially in midst of a great recession. Even in products as overpriced as Iphone they are not moving manufacturing to US .

 

[Fig]

Well, you're wrong and you don't know what you're talking about. iPhones are not something you can just bring back, but a ton of other stuff is. We get all sorts of stuff from China because it's a tiny bit cheaper, and before Trump they would often make it cheaper artificially. That's not happening now.

What is it that you do?

I'm in the process of brokering a very large deal for single-strand, polyester fiber fill, which is something we've virtually stopped making at all domestically. Now there is a group of 4 OEMs who are all asking to source this in the US, and I've found a company in the industry that is willing to start a whole new line to to supply them. It's not a labor intensive process, and probably only means 25 new jobs, but it's 25 we didn't have. That is one example among thousands. Every day I'm talking to companies who want to cut ties with China because they believe doing business with them is selling our own people out. They don't want to rely on that supply chain anymore even if it costs them some more.

Some shit is easy to bring back, and some is a lot harder. Something like this, where the technology is old, it just costs more do to it here in labor and regulations, suddenly makes a lot more sense to pay a few pennies more and be certain of your supply than the disruptions of going overseas for a small margin profit. It's not worth it anymore for a variety of reasons.

 

[Fig]

Speak of the Devil and he shall...
Financial Times: The Decoupling of US and China Has Begun

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

 

[Redmanss]

Retail is probably never going to fully recover.
Now that Amazon just got handed a monopoly on a lot of commerce for several months straight & got everyone hooked on sitting at home, they have a lot of inertia in their favour.

Walmart will probably continue to be just fine, but I expect for many other retail places, it may not be worth opening your doors again. Malls are going to have to find something else like tearing everything down and building apartments or such.

Still haven’t bought anything from Amazon, and haven’t set foot in a Wally World in months. It can be done, easier than most would think.

 

[Redmanss]

Speak of the Devil and he shall...
Financial Times: The Decoupling of US and China Has Begun

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

Paywall blocked...

 

[10ring'r]

^^^ And that's why I have no desire to become a landlord

When we had our home on the market, we had two perspective buyers, one, a couple and one, a single person, both parties wanted to rent, so I told both, 25k for the deposit and 1200.00 per month rent. They both backed out rather quickly. I sold a few acres in Ore., back in the early 90's and had to make 4 trips (from Ca., Service related), on my dime & time, to get my money. So, considering the damage that renters can do, that's why I will never rent or be a landlord. Mac

 

[E. Bryant]

Well, you're wrong and you don't know what you're talking about. iPhones are not something you can just bring back, but a ton of other stuff is. We get all sorts of stuff from China because it's a tiny bit cheaper, and before Trump they would often make it cheaper artificially. That's not happening now.

What is it that you do?

I'm in the process of brokering a very large deal for single-strand, polyester fiber fill, which is something we've virtually stopped making at all domestically. Now there is a group of 4 OEMs who are all asking to source this in the US, and I've found a company in the industry that is willing to start a whole new line to to supply them. It's not a labor intensive process, and probably only means 25 new jobs, but it's 25 we didn't have. That is one example among thousands. Every day I'm talking to companies who want to cut ties with China because they believe doing business with them is selling our own people out. They don't want to rely on that supply chain anymore even if it costs them some more.

Some shit is easy to bring back, and some is a lot harder. Something like this, where the technology is old, it just costs more do to it here in labor and regulations, suddenly makes a lot more sense to pay a few pennies more and be certain of your supply than the disruptions of going overseas for a small margin profit. It's not worth it anymore for a variety of reasons.

Truth.

Toys and trinkets aren't coming back to the US, but a hell of a lot of product is. Way too much product went overseas because of misguided lemming-like behavior by the MBA crowd, and it will make its way back here as people come to their senses.

Small industrial RE was already super-tight in this area for the past five years (yes, even dating back to the Obama era). Shit is doing to get crazy now unless the wet blanket wins, but even if that happens, I think the tide is turning.

 

[Soulezoo]

Trump is actively working on bringing pharmaceutical manufacturing back to US... over the cries of Fauci not to.

 

[Mr.BR]

Yes some is coming back to US , and more than anything everyone wants some PR for that , but you have to know that your poors standard of living is greatly subsidized by cheap shit , all the clothes, electronics,cheap tools ,home and garden wares ,ktichen apliances ,ACs, unless you are suddenly prepared to pay way more while not earning much more ,its at best moving to Mexico but not US .

Tell me how much of the Wallmart inventory is coming back to US? Or Amazon?

Kodak are some scam artists , happy to see their deal fall trough

 

[1moaoff]

I keep wondering when all these 30 year olds with the 4000 sq foot house and 5 car garage are going to have their asses handed to them....waiting....just waiting. I'm not exaggerating either. Unbelievable. Oh, and each garage bay has a < 5 year old car or maybe 1 has bikes and the rest all car (car = vehicle). would love to know their debt/income ratio.

No debt, at all even on my commercial property or my business or my cars.

 

[deersniper]

When we had our home on the market, we had two perspective buyers, one, a couple and one, a single person, both parties wanted to rent, so I told both, 25k for the deposit and 1200.00 per month rent. They both backed out rather quickly. I sold a few acres in Ore., back in the early 90's and had to make 4 trips (from Ca., Service related), on my dime & time, to get my money. So, considering the damage that renters can do, that's why I will never rent or be a landlord. Mac

Lmao

I can get sued for asking for that much deposit. 2 months max here. Which covers about jack and shit for a bad renter.


You don’t own your house / property / children / etc. .gov just lets you have puss them

 

[deersniper]

No debt, at all even on my commercial property or my business or my cars.

Debt is a good tool. Low interest rates plus inflation = paying off the loan with cheap money

 

[pmclaine]

Yes some is coming back to US , and more than anything everyone wants some PR for that , but you have to know that your poors standard of living is greatly subsidized by cheap shit , all the clothes, electronics,cheap tools ,home and garden wares ,ktichen apliances ,ACs, unless you are suddenly prepared to pay way more while not earning much more ,its at best moving to Mexico but not US .

Tell me how much of the Wallmart inventory is coming back to US? Or Amazon?

Kodak are some scam artists , happy to see their deal fall trough

Walmart sells crap.

I'd rather pay more for shit and get value.

Just loaded the truck with beach shit.

Seems like yearly my wife buys one of these......

Bedding, Bath Towels, Cookware, Fine China, Wedding & GiftRegistry | Bed Bath & Beyond

www.bedbathandbeyond.com

We are on our second one this season, rear wheels wallow out and go to shit most quickly.

B,B&B usually just gives her the second one of the season free when she takes it back broken.

At $70 and on our fourth or fifth one having paid for half of them. Shit is probably only worth ten dollars figuring original buy and one replacement.

So much for a "Green Economy" when the land fill is full of beach carts.

 

[E. Bryant]

Debt is a good tool. Low interest rates plus inflation = paying off the loan with cheap money

All fine and dandy if rates remain low, but if they ever come back anywhere close to historical terms (and that's a big "if"), watch out because asset prices won't be maintained at current levels. Gonna be hilarious when someone buys a house at a particular price on a 3% note, and then finds themselves underwater 10-15 years later when rates are at 8-10% and thus the place is only worth half as much.

 

[whiskeytower]

Commercial property is going to be the next "housing" crisis. Local entities will figure out how to break small local business with taxes and replace them with giant global corporations IE: (fulfilment centers) that will make up the loss of tax revenue. This will ensue until .gov decides to break them up or people quit purchasing and filling their homes with cheap junk that they do not need.

 

[Fig]

All fine and dandy if rates remain low, but if they ever come back anywhere close to historical terms (and that's a big "if"), watch out because asset prices won't be maintained at current levels. Gonna be hilarious when someone buys a house at a particular price on a 3% note, and then finds themselves underwater 10-15 years later when rates are at 8-10% and thus the place is only worth half as much.

We only got fixed, and probably have to 15 years. Rates are SO low there is no reason to get an ARM unless you have terrible credit.

 

[W54/XM-388]

Commercial property is going to be the next "housing" crisis. Local entities will figure out how to break small local business with taxes and replace them with giant global corporations IE: (fulfilment centers) that will make up the loss of tax revenue. This will ensue until .gov decides to break them up or people quit purchasing and filling their homes with cheap junk that they do not need.

The laugh is going to be on all the local cities and such that do that.
Yep stars in their eyes about how much money and jobs BS, so they will fork out tons of money and "incentives" while destroying the locals to make room for the rich.

The moment the "incentives" run out, they move to the next spot that offers them incentives unless the current place gives them an even better deal.

 

[E. Bryant]

We only got fixed, and probably have to 15 years. Rates are SO low there is no reason to get an ARM unless you have terrible credit.

ARMs are only part of the problem. You can still get screwed with a fixed rate when it's time to sell the property; asset values are appreciating right now largely because rates are so low, and thus any future increase in rates will likely drive prices lower. This shouldn't be a problem with a savvy commercial investor, but those folks who are buying up property as a place to temporarily store wealth could get hurt badly if they ever need to liquidate those properties. This is especially true of private homes - go drive mortgage rates up to 8-10% and watch all those $350k new homes suddenly become worth $200k because that's what the market will bear from the standpoint of monthly payments. Commercial and industrial RE shouldn't be quite as susceptible, but they won't be completely disconnected.

All of this assumes that interest rates will ever be allowed to rise. They probably can't, because real estate prices would actually be a pretty small part of our problem if we woke up tomorrow to 10% effective rates.

 

[Fig]

The laugh is going to be on all the local cities and such that do that.
Yep stars in their eyes about how much money and jobs BS, so they will fork out tons of money and "incentives" while destroying the locals to make room for the rich.

The moment the "incentives" run out, they move to the next spot that offers them incentives unless the current place gives them an even better deal.

I don't disagree with that. It is very hard for the small landlords and property owners to compete when their NNNs are @ $2.30, and the new, 26' clear, tilt ups have NNNs of $.07. I run into it all the time, and it makes it really hard, no doubt. I'm bumping along a pot-holed filled street when 1/4 mile away there is 700,000 Sq. Ft. not paying ANY taxes at all, and the little guys are getting squozen. That is makes people mad is understandable.

However..., those incentivized properties aren't going away in 15 years when the tax abatement/incremental financing expires. I've seen the same thing with loft developments in the city. The projects simply don't happen without subsidies. The abatement and the incentives ARE the profit, and it is simply beyond question at this point that the developments and the economic activity they generate pay back in terms of revenue and economic activity at a 500% rate over ten years. The numbers from LIHTCs and HTCs are undeniable at this point. It is short term pain for long term gain.

Yes, it blows for the 10-15 years when the developers are getting a free ride on the backs of the tax paying public, but once those properties start coming on line the revenues start skyrocketing, and the truth of the matter is that they never really drop as long as the space gets filled with businesses.

Now, if it's some mega company that's just running distribution space, then I agree with you, but for the vast majority of subsidized development there is no question it is a new gain for that MSA in terms of total economy over the course or the program. I can assure you that it would not be happening in so many places if this was just some sort of rich-get-richer (though they do) scheme at the expense of the municipality. The ones that have been doing this since the early '90s are in a position where they are so fiscally sound it isn't a risk at all.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but in my experience this works. Subsidizing and incentivizing the private sector to achieve your civic goals, where it makes sense to tip the numbers just a little, works. Creating programs, government grants, or creating government projects clearly does not work, at all. In fact, it's almost always a total disaster and achieves the opposite of what the well meaning fools intend.

 

[Mr.BR]

We only got fixed, and probably have to 15 years. Rates are SO low there is no reason to get an ARM unless you have terrible credit.

Mortage might be low but consumer debts,credit card , car debt are expensive. Not to mention shit financed with these is depreciating fast.

All said now its time to buy a car as they are stuck with inventory and great deals are to be had.

 

[Fig]

ARMs are only part of the problem. You can still get screwed with a fixed rate when it's time to sell the property; asset values are appreciating right now largely because rates are so low, and thus any future increase in rates will likely drive prices lower. This shouldn't be a problem with a savvy commercial investor, but those folks who are buying up property as a place to temporarily store wealth could get hurt badly if they ever need to liquidate those properties. This is especially true of private homes - go drive mortgage rates up to 8-10% and watch all those $350k new homes suddenly become worth $200k because that's what the market will bear from the standpoint of monthly payments. Commercial and industrial RE shouldn't be quite as susceptible, but they won't be completely disconnected.

All of this assumes that interest rates will ever be allowed to rise. They probably can't, because real estate prices would actually be a pretty small part of our problem if we woke up tomorrow to 10% effective rates.

First off, that is simply not historically true. Look at any chart of US home prices or commercial prices and you'll see a steady rise with some exceedingly rare dips as they did in 2008-2009. Inflation also drives real estate prices up even with the increased interest rates it brings. If you're investing in RE as a way to "store money" with the hopes of liquidating it, you're an idiot unless it's trophy grade, zero net that's always in demand. Real estate is one of the least liquid of all assets.

It's really easy to make bad decisions and loose your ass in RE. You have to know the local market, and ignore the big trends. Buying single family homes is THE worst investment. The only wealthy people I know who do it play in the bottom 10%, work their asses off, and own big property management companies. Most wealthy people who do what you're talking about DO NOT BUY HOMES. They make their money right off the bat on the savings from the 1031, and then they store it in a zero net investment which CAN be bought and sold like a commodity. Real estate is the unliquid asset. Only in the Net Zero market can you expect to pull your money right out and put it in something else. I'm talking corporate guaranteed leases for 10+ years trading for 5-8% returns. You need a million bucks in cash to even play.

Consumer debt is retarded. Get rid of it 1st.

 

[E. Bryant]

First off, that is simply not historically true. Look at any chart of US home prices or commercial prices and you'll see a steady rise with some exceedingly rare dips as they did in 2008-2009. Inflation also drives real estate prices up even with the increased interest rates it brings. If you're investing in RE as a way to "store money" with the hopes of liquidating it, you're an idiot unless it's trophy grade, zero net that's always in demand. Real estate is one of the least liquid of all assets.

And if you go back 30-40 years, you'll see that property prices have indeed increased, but interest rates have also shown an inverse trend. I'll acknowledge that rates have been "noisier" than prices, but the trend lines of the two inversely correlate pretty nicely. Now, does that prove causation? No, but denying that a relationship exists between the two seems just a touch foolish. [/quote]

It's really easy to make bad decisions and loose your ass in RE. You have to know the local market, and ignore the big trends. Buying single family homes is THE worst investment. The only wealthy people I know who do it play in the bottom 10%, work their asses off, and own big property management companies. Most wealthy people who do what you're talking about DO NOT BUY HOMES. They make their money right off the bat on the savings from the 1031, and then they store it in a zero net investment which CAN be bought and sold like a commodity. Real estate is the unliquid asset. Only in the Net Zero market can you expect to pull your money right out and put it in something else. I'm talking corporate guaranteed leases for 10+ years trading for 5-8% returns. You need a million bucks in cash to even play.

I'm not so much talking about the ballers who are making this work in any market. I'm talking about the jamokes who are doing exactly what we saw 15 years ago - taking on some debt to buy up a bunch of property with the idea of making some rent now (hopefully enough to cover the debt service costs) and then flip those properties later when they inevitably appreciate. Which isn't inevitable at all - no law of physics say that real estate prices must go up, even if they have indeed done so pretty much since I was born.

And of course there are the local factors that you mentioned. Sitting on several single-family homes or retail commercial storefronts isn't the greatest plan when the one local employer decides to close down that nice factory, lay off all the unionized workforce, and move production down South or overseas. Got to watch that one play out in 2006 when a large auto parts manufacturer decided to close down a plant which had paid for a lot of nice homes in the area. Probably sucked to get caught on the wrong side of that mess (probably sucked even worse when 2008-09 brought a double-whammy).

Anyways, my whole point is that price appreciation isn't guaranteed, but people sure borrow money as if it was. Gotta be smarter than that.

Consumer debt is retarded. Get rid of it 1st.

No disagreement here.

 

[padronanniversary]

The laugh is going to be on all the local cities and such that do that.
Yep stars in their eyes about how much money and jobs BS, so they will fork out tons of money and "incentives" while destroying the locals to make room for the rich.

The moment the "incentives" run out, they move to the next spot that offers them incentives unless the current place gives them an even better deal.

this has been the case with all these outlet malls. the promise of jobs for the local community (low paying ) in return for tax abatement for 20 years. Ever notice how these outlet malls are empty and have moved on to different communities in 20 ?

all these small “cities” are just out gunned in the sense of resources in finance. Think about a large corp like amazon who can staff a building full of accountants just to run all scenarios compared to a suburb who either has 1 full time accountant or has a small budget that out sources it.

 

[Fig]

I was not talking about retail developments. I was talking about industrial. I try to stay away from retail entirely, even when it wasn't sucking tail pipe. It's almost it's own industry with it's own "ethics".