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Create a channel Learn moreI'm going with a big nothing burger.
Yep, not the doom and gloom, but....I'm going with a big nothing burger.
Wonder if a Carrington level event would cause it to rain down more space junk.
It's entirely possible.Apparently the plasma from these things (CMEs) tend to wreck havoc on satellites and can degrade their orbits.
Wonder if a Carrington level event would cause it to rain down more space junk.
Apparently the plasma from these things (CMEs) tend to wreck havoc on satellites and can degrade their orbits.
Wonder if a Carrington level event would cause it to rain down more space junk.
If the zap arrives before you check it, you may never know. Should have written you a letter.A carrington level event will rain debris but it will take time for orbits to decay.
Again… this ain’t it.
But it is inevitable that one will hit us. Next week? 200 years? No one can say. In theory we are currently (based on previous CME’s) in a 10% chance a year probability. That’s huge numbers.
I think the dangers of another CA megaquake is something like 1 percent a year.
Whatever… we live in a cosmic shooting gallery.
BTW I am up on all this because I proposed a talk on exactly this event for an Information Warfare conference this fall. Submitted it 6 weeks ago. Topic is about “recovery” and how to preserve information in non electronic form.
Funny, the organizers just left me a voice mail…. I wonder what they are asking?
Sirhr
Do continue to enlighten us.A carrington level event will rain debris but it will take time for orbits to decay.
Again… this ain’t it.
But it is inevitable that one will hit us. Next week? 200 years? No one can say. In theory we are currently (based on previous CME’s) in a 10% chance a year probability. That’s huge numbers.
I think the dangers of another CA megaquake is something like 1 percent a year.
Whatever… we live in a cosmic shooting gallery.
BTW I am up on all this because I proposed a talk on exactly this event for an Information Warfare conference this fall. Submitted it 6 weeks ago. Topic is about “recovery” and how to preserve information in non electronic form.
Funny, the organizers just left me a voice mail…. I wonder what they are asking?
Sirhr
Having access to a manually operated printing press would be very useful.Do continue to enlighten us.
I know one of the podcasts I listen to really harps on building libraries with critical info on hard copies, not digital.
like the ending of the book of Eli. The movie.Having access to a manually operated printing press would be very useful.
Gutenberg 2: Mechanical Boogaloo.
Having access to a manually operated printing press would be very useful.
Gutenberg 2: Mechanical Boogaloo.
The reason I keep a complete set of encyclopedia printed in 1962 & year books to 1999.I know one of the podcasts I listen to really harps on building libraries with critical info on hard copies, not digital.
That's pretty. I'd like to see them sometime. Probably don't want to see them on the gulf coast though.Took this from my backyard April 23, 2023. I'm in Smithville Missouri, so a bit north of Kansas Shitty.
Kinda nice to get the opportunity to get another go at it.
Branden
Yeah but if we got carringtoned, it'd probably be more like 1760's again.The reason I keep a complete set of encyclopedia printed in 1962 & year books to 1999.
I'd could get use to doing things mid 1960's again.
well put and accurate. 6 bil out of the 8 here now is prob conservative. the entire 1st world will likely lose 90%+ of it's pop. at the other end even up the amazon primatives are now mol dependent on modern metal,meds and some tech. africa is. US and west civ will be biggest losers. 2nd world like saudi,latin america,se asia etc will not escape. elites will tank. they have no skills or toughness and no way to "pay" or force others to work for them. correct in saying that lack of "hard copy" plans or instructions matters. the total dependence that the species has allowed on digital products and tools has made itself to vulnerable on every issue at every level. there will be enough metal,plastic,tools and textiles sitting around for some to make use of. the initial massive violence will be self limiting as the winning savages won't be able to feed themselves. as in times past food will be the big one. life expectancy will drop into the 30yr range at best. modern medicine,knowledge and tech will only be available a little for a year or so. knowledge of it's production and use will be wiped out when the cities go. mad max won't happen like the movies. no fuel will be available for more than a month. after about 2 years,the 12th century level is the best it will be. lastly,nobody will know it has happened. no modern comm you won't have any knowledge past a few blocks away if urban or a few miles if rural. hardening infrastructure is a must. not happening as worry about species survival in this setting makes one a panic monger or a non truster in "god". at least horses will become very important again if any survive the short term want for meat. hard times coming and we have done it to ourselves as a species.This time yes.
But we missed one in, IIRC, 2012 that would have put us back 800 years.
I’m not joking when I say 6 billion dead. It will take 2-4 years. But if electricity collapses everything comes apart. And a CME the scale of Carrington will wipe out the earth’s grid.
For starters, there are 1 million people in airliners/planes in the air at any one time worldwide. They die either instantly when planes shut down or within hours when they can’t land because nav systems fail, airports go dark and fuel runs out.
Today will be a Nothingburger.
But we are 50+ years over due for a once-in a century event. And u like 1840’s where electricity was a novelty, next time it will take out the very basic foundation that lets the planet currently support its massive urban (and advanced) population. And there is no way to “bring the power back” if a strong-scale CME or Emp event hits us.
Moreover, we lose the knowledge of “how” to bring it back. All those great digital archives are electricity dependent and we won’t have tools to read them. And anyone think someone is going to “dust off”’paper blueprints and build power grid with hammers and files? Because there won’t be any lathes working either.
We have been in a several-hundred-year Goldilocks zone as a species. And while Al the paid-off greenie science-Druid idiots are braying on about CO2, the thing that is going to get us is not plant food!
Whatever it will be will be unexpected, unstoppable and they only way to “survive” it in any numbers is to have enough hardened infrastructure and enough stored knowledge in an accessible form… that the survivors can rebuild in “some” way shape or form.
Sirhr
Deal, so long as it’s 6 billion leftists.Not if… when. And if we get an 1840’s level hit, we go back to the 14th century and could lose 6 billion people…
Sirhr
The blue hairs will get eaten first...Deal, so long as it’s 6 billion leftists.
I find your terms both reasonable and acceptable.Not if… when. And if we get an 1840’s level hit, we go back to the 14th century and could lose 6 billion people…
Sirhr
I find your terms both reasonable and acceptable.
For most yes, but not all. The sad part is the amount of killing that will have to be done, to maintain a viable life style for you & yours.Yeah but if we got carringtoned, it'd probably be more like 1760's again.
But it would not be what we, today, consider a "viable" lifestyle.For most yes, but not all. The sad part is the amount of killing that will have to be done, to maintain a viable life style for you & yours.
just to be argumentative,will say carrington would be rather down the list. definitely end civilization for 2k years. something like the permian event or cretaceous hit would take out most multicellular life. happened before. wonder about a super size volcano bigger x a bunch than krakatoa would do. species likely survive? civ likely not. a very good point about the loss of alexandria. i would say that the loss of baghdad library was almost as bad. don't think europeans knew much about greece or rome before translations of muslim works. OT but i think islam would maybe have developed more rationally if mongols hadn't almost wiped it out. just a guess. maybe wrong.Well, everyone is freaking out about plant food in the atmosphere.
That's not even close on the 'threat' level for humanity. Nor is AI. Or even nuclear exchange these days.
Carrington is number one. Major volcano is 2 (Think Campei Flagre or Yellowstone).. Number three is meteor/astroid strike.
You know that in the last 30 years, more money has been spent on "asteroids hitting the world" movies than has been spent on "stopping astroid hitting the world" defenses or hardening?
Nothing has been done for EMP/CME.
And volcano's... well can't do a damn thing about a major eruption. Honestly, I'd be more worried about Campo Flegre, or Son of Krakatoa... than Yellowstone. But all three are potential slate-wipers. So there ya go!
The trick is not going to be surviving them. But bouncing back. If all our knowledge of society is erased... the process becomes really tough. Sort of like losing the library at Alexandria.
There is an old saw among historians (and the math does not work... but it's still good...) "If the library at Alexandria had not been burned, the Centurions would have radio'd the news of Jesus' Crucifiction to Rome." Technically not correct on the historical timeline. But the theme resonates.
We are who we are because we stand on the shoulders of giants and can access their knowledge through writing and archives. The modern equivalent of burning the Library at Alexandria is the loss of power to digital archives. Or losing the computers needed to read them. We need a global initiative to get 'digital' content translated into a format that can be read with a simple solar-lit microscope -- aka 1920's technology. Think all the world's digital knowledge put on microdots and stored so it could be read with magnifying glasses/19th century microscopes.
Because otherwise it will be gone. Zorched out. Eliminated. And need to be rebuilt. Which will take, what, 500 years?
Just 'sayin.
Sirhr
Sirhr
Disagree. There is a large segment of the US population that has been prepping for this very thing for over 40-50 years. The biggest issue will be where to stack all the body's of those who die off because of many factors, & those who are trying to take.But it would not be what we, today, consider a "viable" lifestyle.
It would be a subsistence and survival lifestyle. Think Plymouth Colony or maybe Fort Pitt in 18th Century.
Viable lifestyle 'thought' to day might be thinking 1950's.
Try thinking best case as 1600's Europe.
Worst case is 1100's England.... and that might be a picnic compared to the rest of the planet.
We are in a Goldilocks zone. It either keeps getting better until we are all dead of old age... which is sort of an historical anomoly. Or it gets so far worse that we end up back in the dark ages for 1000 years... until we come out of it.
Either way, 90 - 99 percent of us are dead along with our heirs and progeny.
So we have that to look forward to. The only thing that makes the bounce-back slightly-less-painful is the preservation of knowledge so that the remaining humanoids can stand on the shoulders of previous generations. And not have to reinvent everything from scratch.
Regardless, we'll all (every one of us) be dead during the recovery. So best we can do is be there to accelerate the bounceback... or preserve knowledge and train the surviving generations. Yeah... 100 percent. I'm not wrong here. We have no 8-year-olds posting that I a aware of.
Sirhr
40 60 & 80 are quite here.Checking 40m now…
Whether she cums or not strikes me as an Ann Margaret problem and not anything the Hide needs to be concerned about. Either way she's apparently 83 now so throw her a Werther's Original and call it a day.Does this mean Ann Margaret is not coming?
Disagree. There is a large segment of the US population that has been prepping for this very thing for over 40-50 years. The biggest issue will be where to stack all the body's of those who die off because of many factors, & those who are trying to take.
Boy. That went over your head.Whether she cums or not strikes me as an Ann Margaret problem and not anything the Hide needs to be concerned about. Either way she's apparWhether she cums or not strikes me as an Ann Margaret problem and not anything the Hide needs to be concerned about. Either way she's apparently 83 now so throw her a Werther's Original and call it a day.
-LD
No morning dew...Does this mean Ann Margaret is not coming?
Ya, but when your scenarios are based upon known ability's, it tends to play out as predicted.But things are never as good as one creates in a scenario.