Crash course in ELR data management and problem solving
The annual Nightforce ELR competition is a brutal test of your system familiarity and data management process. At RifleKraft, we live for the data that keeps your shots on target and learning what matters when by going out and experimenting in different ways to see what works and what doesnt. This year I went to test some ideas from last years Nightforce ELR competition, and while those worked, the ELR gods threw me content and learning curveballs anyway.
Here’s the breakdown, straight from the range, with tests planned to dial it in so you don’t have to spend any extra time and money on your shooting goals.
Temperature’s Sneaky Effect on Velocity
Temperature can flip your ELR game upside down. Across my chronographed stages over several days, my bullet speeds climbed from 2792.8 ft/s at 60°F to 2860.1 ft/s at 80°F—a 67 ft/s jump. That’s enough to wreck your elevation at extended ranges by quite a bit (we shot up to 2250 yards). I tried tweaking my Kestrel with the new velocities, but elevation was still often off, suggesting something else shifts at higher speeds or alongside these variables. Copper Creek’s ammo, with its unknown powder, was touchier than last year’s Berger loads. I’m planning tests to heat ammo to 80°F and compare it to 55°F shots, plus dig into outliers like 2811.1 ft/s at 65°F, to nail down what’s driving these swings.
Takeaway
Velocities rose 67 ft/s from 55–80°F, throwing off elevation at long range if you weren’t on top of the change.
Zero Shifts That’ll Burn You
Your zero is your anchor, but mine was drifting with the heat. At higher velocities, I was 0.2 mil high and 0.1 mil left. Colder days? 0.1 mil low and dead even, or 0.1 mil right at 47°F. That’s a 0.3 mil swing—about 1.1 inches at 2250 yards. That’s enough to tank your wind call and miss a small target. I’m not guessing here; I’m planning to shoot controlled tests to confirm if velocity or temperature is the culprit. Until I know, I’m not trusting my zero without checking it across conditions, because I know for sure some of my rifles are good regardless of temp, but I did not check this one and big calibers may or may not have one; additionally my rifle was the AI ASXR and the barrel torque could also be a factor in this and will temperature/torque test to see if the shift was due to that and not ammunition (or both)
Takeaways:
Temperature could shift your zero by 0.3 mil, critical at ELR distances.
Test your zero at different temperatures to quantify point of impact changes.
Small zero shifts massively impact hit rates on distant targets as cone of fire stays consistent but consistent sizes shrink on the reticle.
Ammo: Know Your Load characteristics
Ammo choice can make or break you. Copper Creek’s Lapua brass and Hornady A-tips grouped tight—half-inch or better—but the powder’s temperature sensitivity caught me off guard, with velocities jumping 67 ft/s across 25°F. Last year’s Berger ammo didn’t budge as much. Without knowing Copper Creek’s powder, I’m curious why speeds climbed like they did and in the future if I use that will account for it in advance. These findings aren’t deal breakers because they are measurable and something a shooter can account for, if you know to account for it.
Takeaways:
Copper Creek ammo showed significant temperature sensitivity vs. Berger.
Unknown powder types complicate predicting performance.
Test each ammo setup to understand its response to heat and velocity.
Standard Deviation: The Silent Killer
Standard deviation (SD) can kill your ELR ranges. Across 320 stages and a day of testing before, SD ranged from 4.7 to 17 ft/s, hitting 14–14.6 at 74–75.5°F. Wider SD meant bigger vertical spread, and low misses stacked up as speeds hit 2860.1 ft/s, needing less elevation. Inside of1000 yards, group size rules, but past that, SD drives dispersion. I have SD information on the shots, but the data’s messy—17 at 60°F, 4.7 at 73°F. Clearly Temperature’s not the whole story. For the future, I’m analyzing these 220 chronographed shots and testing heated ammo to sort out what’s contributing to the trends and will report when more comfortable with conclusions and not speculating. Conclusion so far: Get the data beforehand and make sure its accounting for all of the same variables, or you’re shooting blind.
Takeaways:
SD varied, but, because it is the primary impact on vertical dispersion at ELR ranges, it has to be taken very seriously
Test ammo across conditions to pinpoint SD drivers.
Ranging and Adapting to Conditions
ELR is problem-solving and data management, not just shooting. Early on, bad target ranges cost me points until I started self-ranging. At 70°F with clear skies, I dialed elevations cleanly, but as temps hit 80°F, velocities climbed, and misses went low. Delays—45 minutes moving ranges or waiting—let heat build, spiking speeds; catching those changes early helps keep data closer to center. Making sure target ranges are correct is also important because not all distances were correct and a correction off of a bad range interpreted as speed or rifle issue means youre barking up the wrong tree. I also did this several times and I categorized it as a mental mistake and that’s another story.
Takeaways:
Verify target ranges yourself to avoid costly errors.
Adapt to rising temperatures and delays that shift conditions.
Quick corrections after misses can recover performance, but don’t jump to conclusions about why they were needed until youre cure they were the cause!
Wind Calls with KraftWind
Wind’s a beast, but my KraftWind system nailed most calls despite the distances. Terrain throws curveballs, so I’m building a supplemental course for advanced shooters to tackle those wind shifts. When velocities, zeros, and SD are locked in, wind management seals the deal.
Takeaways:
KraftWind reliably handled ELR wind calls.
Terrain-specific wind training will boost advanced skills.
Solid wind management is critical for consistent hits.
Lessons for the Long Haul
This year was a grind, but the data’s gold for growth. Theres a saying “be beave enough to suck at something youre less familiar with” I like that. Next year, I’ll bring the heat—pun intended—and try again with the lessons learned about what works. That’s the RifleKraft Way.
Takeaways:
Document lessons to streamline future prep.
Personal testing trumps generic advice.
Optimize your system through rigorous data collection.
