Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

“The Fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 basis-point move in March,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. “A reasonable assessment of where the Fed is would say that they have not been this far behind the curve for a year or so.”

Larry Summers Urges Fed’s Powell to Open Door to 50 Basis Points in March

(Bloomberg) -- Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Federal Reserve policymakers should highlight that a re-acceleration in interest-rate hikes is possible this month in the wake of a slew of robust economic data.Most Read from BloombergAmazon Pauses Construction on Second...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Car debt piles up as more Americans struggle to make payments

Car repossessions are on the rise as more consumers fall behind on their payments amid an inflation crisis that has squeezed millions of U.S. households.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

America is into the long glide while hoping for a soft landing. Starting to hear the tree top's hitting the bottom of the fuselage.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cautioned that interest rates are likely to head higher than central bank policymakers had expected.
Citing data earlier this year showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, the central bank leader warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing economy.
However, he also noted “there is little sign of disinflation” when it comes to the important category of services spending excluding housing, food and energy.

Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are 'likely to be higher' than previously anticipated

Citing earlier data showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration in late 2022, Powell warned of tighter monetary policy ahead.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

America is into the long glide while hoping for a soft landing. Starting to hear the tree top's hitting the bottom of the fuselage.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cautioned that interest rates are likely to head higher than central bank policymakers had expected.
Citing data earlier this year showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, the central bank leader warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing economy.
However, he also noted “there is little sign of disinflation” when it comes to the important category of services spending excluding housing, food and energy.

Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are 'likely to be higher' than previously anticipated

Citing earlier data showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration in late 2022, Powell warned of tighter monetary policy ahead.

www.cnbc.com

more like a steep dive

 

[Hobo Hilton]

more like a steep dive

If they make a steep dive and crash this year... The Middle Class will still have many resources in reserve (a job, some savings, a low house note, shopping at Walmart or second hand stores, their health is still good, they can go a few more years with a 10 year old car, they can send their child to trade school rather than Graduate school, the life insurance policy has low premiums so they can continue to pay that premium, their work ethic will still allow them to get a job if downsized, etc, etc)..

If the FED prolongs the crash until 2024 then the Middle Class will have used up their resources. The plan is to reduce the population and have the rest dependent on the Government hand outs.

The plan is working.

This morning BlackStone announced that Europe will recover faster than the USA. I saw that coming as the recession started 2 years ago. Look at where "Free Money" will get a country. Europe is not funding a war...... Every 10% cut mounts up.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Pactiv Evergreen is closing the factory within the coming months, jeopardizing the livelihoods of its over 1,100 employees​

Century-old NC paper mill that employs 1,100 to abruptly close, mayor says small town's soul being ripped out

A paper mill that has operated in Canton, North Carolina, for over a century announced it will be shutting down, leaving the local community devastated.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[babyguppy]

Chinese company buys Catalyst Paper mills in US (located in MA and Wis)​

Chinese company buys Catalyst paper mills for US$175 million

There are no plans for lay-offs at the mills, which employ about 610 workers in Rumford, Maine, and 380 workers in Biron, Wisconsin.

www.scmp.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Funny thing, today's propagandist will say this (Below) is false. A few of us are old enough to remember that time, along with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Always check the age of the person spreading propaganda, They are changing history.
___________

1959
Russian Communist leader, Nikita Khrushchev said, “We will take America without firing a shot. We do not have to invade the U.S. We will destroy you from within.”
In a new recent poll, it was revealed that 70% of millennials (age 24-39) say they would vote for a socialist. The You Gov - Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation found in their poll that 50% of millennials (age 23-38) and 51% of Generation Z (age 16-22) have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Capitalism.

Letters: Nikita Khrushchev’s chilling prediction: ‘We will take America without firing a shot’

Nikita Khrushchev sent chills down my spine I was nine years old in 1956 when I read that Russia’s Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev said, “We will take America without firing a shot. …

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Using the Great Recession as a guide, the projected breaking point is the level of household credit card debt that will become unsustainable for most people, according to Jill Gonzalez, an analyst at WalletHub.
“It’s when people won’t be able to keep up with their bills,” she said. “We’re inching closer and closer to that breaking point.”

Credit card debt is at an all-time high, putting households near 'breaking point,' study shows

Credit card debt hit a record $930.6 billion at the end of 2022, putting households' finances near a projected breaking point, a new report finds.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yes, there is a Pay Wall........ all you really need to absorb is the headline.
Retail and hospitality adding jobs is a Nothing Burger. Some of those people work 3 part time jobs. Numbers are skewed.
Numbers like this lead America farther down the Rabbit Hole.
________________________________________________________________________________

Retail and Hospitality Added Over 150,000 Jobs. Growth Will ...​

Barron's
https://www.barrons.com › articles › retail-hospitality-job...
14 minutes ago — The U.S. added 311,000 jobs last month. Of those, roughly 50,000 were in the retail trade, and 105,000 in the leisure and hospitality ..

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cambridge Dictionary​

waffle - to talk or write a lot without giving any useful information or any clear answers:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
This recession has no end in sight.

SVB crisis shows Fed needs to slow down or a 'lot more stuff is going to break,' Altimeter's Gerstner says

Altimeter Capital's Brad Gerstner said that rate hikes need to slow in order to avert an ongoing crisis at regional banks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Meta to lay off 10,000 more workers after initial cuts in November

Meta is laying off 10,000 more employees following a major round of job cuts in November.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Yes, there is a Pay Wall........ all you really need to absorb is the headline.
Retail and hospitality adding jobs is a Nothing Burger. Some of those people work 3 part time jobs. Numbers are skewed.
Numbers like this lead America farther down the Rabbit Hole.
________________________________________________________________________________

Retail and Hospitality Added Over 150,000 Jobs. Growth Will ...​

View attachment 8093298
Barron's
https://www.barrons.com › articles › retail-hospitality-job...
14 minutes ago — The U.S. added 311,000 jobs last month. Of those, roughly 50,000 were in the retail trade, and 105,000 in the leisure and hospitality ..

nothing like 2.13 an hour waiting tables... success; and pray the clientele tips.

 

[babyguppy]

more layoffs in the BEST ECONOMY EVER RECORDED, after minor adjustments to the definition of BEST

• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Tuesday the company plans to cut 10,000 employees.
• Meta laid off over 11,000 employees in November.

Meta to lay off 10,000 more workers after initial cuts in November

Meta is laying off 10,000 more employees following a major round of job cuts in November.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

In a harsh blow to an already-reeling sector, Moody’s Investors Service on Monday cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable.
The firm, part of the big three rating services, said it was making the move in light of three key failures that prompted regulators to step in Sunday with a dramatic rescue plan for depositors and other institutions impacted by the crisis.

Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment'

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tyson's business plan "Sell fewer chickens and charge more for each chicken".... It's just business.
____________
Tyson Foods
will close two chicken plants in May, affecting nearly 1,700 employees.
“While the decision was not easy, it reflects our broader strategy to strengthen our poultry business by optimizing operations and utilizing full available capacity at each plant,” Tyson said in a statement to CNBC.

Tyson Foods to lay off 1,700 workers, close two chicken plants

In its latest quarter, Tyson said its chicken business underperformed expectations.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Tyson's business plan "Sell fewer chickens and charge more for each chicken".... It's just business.
____________
Tyson Foods
will close two chicken plants in May, affecting nearly 1,700 employees.
“While the decision was not easy, it reflects our broader strategy to strengthen our poultry business by optimizing operations and utilizing full available capacity at each plant,” Tyson said in a statement to CNBC.

Tyson Foods to lay off 1,700 workers, close two chicken plants

In its latest quarter, Tyson said its chicken business underperformed expectations.

www.cnbc.com

have 1 chicken plant, have the politicians back you for ESG and being green, sell your 500 dollar chickens.
Let the poor eat bugs and government mandated 'protein'. pass laws so you can't grow your own.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Coming from a guy who is losing billions of your retirement dollars... LOL

______________________
BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink raised the specter of the "silent crisis" of retirement facing the global economy as increased longevity makes issues such as higher housing and healthcare costs for retirees more daunting.
In his closely watched annual letter, Fink, the co-founder of the $8.6 trillion money manager (BLK), said "investing for a financial goal like retirement is an act of hope and optimism, demonstrating a long-term perspective, trust in financial institutions, and belief in the integrity of the market."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees retirement as 'silent crisis' facing global economy

www.morningstar.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Goldman Sachs cuts U.S. GDP forecast after banking crisis

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lowered its forecast for fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, citing risks to the lending environment as smaller banks pull back on loans to preserve liquidity in the face of a banking crisis.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Now we know... Most mega corporations run out of money in about 7 days. Interesting
_____________


Virgin Orbit
is furloughing nearly all its employees and pausing operations for a week as it looks for a funding lifeline, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.
Company executives briefed staff on the situation in an all-hands meeting at 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, according to people who were in the meeting. The furlough is unpaid, though employees can cash in PTO, with only a small team continuing to work. Virgin Orbit is also moving up payroll by a week to Friday.

Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

so........ which definition of 'Recession' are they using this time or will it be redefined? They will be redefining it 10 years after it is over. Look at how they changed definitions of the previous 5 - 6 recessions. Selling snake oil is their profession.

www.snipershide.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Plummeting bond yields, steep drops in oil and stock prices, and a sharp jump in volatility are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.
Stocks were down Wednesday, as worries about Credit Suisse spooked markets already concerned about U.S. regional banks following the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending

Plummeting bond yields, and steep drops in oil and stock prices are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Plummeting bond yields, steep drops in oil and stock prices, and a sharp jump in volatility are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.
Stocks were down Wednesday, as worries about Credit Suisse spooked markets already concerned about U.S. regional banks following the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending

Plummeting bond yields, and steep drops in oil and stock prices are all signaling that investors fear a recession is now on the near horizon.

www.cnbc.com

so.. like a real recession recession, or a newly redefined recession recession

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Is this the start of the diving competition?
Is the swan dive to the pavement better than the a full layout with a half twist to the concrete? Any bonus points for landing on a car?




Too soon?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

so.. like a real recession recession, or a newly redefined recession recession

A couple of the investment groups put out "forward looking" forecast that the 4th quarter of 2023 will be down as far as GDP.
Seems they have already written off 2023 and the "hope" is that things will improve in 2024.

 

[devildog93]

A couple of the investment groups put out "forward looking" forecast that the 4th quarter of 2023 will be down as far as GDP.
Seems they have already written off 2023 and the "hope" is that things will improve in 2024.

I don't think I would bet on it. Gold, silver and ammo seems to be the safe bet.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don't think I would bet on it. Gold, silver and ammo seems to be the safe bet.

I would add an old Ford pickup and a garden to that list.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Amazon
will lay off 9,000 more employees in the coming weeks, CEO Andy Jassy said in a memo to staff on Monday.
The cuts are on top of the previously announced layoffs that began in November and extended into January. That round totaled more than 18,000 employees, and primarily affected staffers in its retail, devices, recruiting and human resources groups.

Amazon to lay off 9,000 more workers in addition to earlier cuts

Amazon will lay off 9,000 more employees, CEO Andy Jassy said in a memo to staff Monday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors. That put sales at an annualized rate of 4.58 million units.
It was the first monthly gain in 12 months and the largest increase since July 2020, just after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales were, however, 22.6% lower than they were in February of last year.

Home sales spike 14.5% in February as the median price drops for the first time in over a decade

Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Walmart
is laying off hundreds of employees at e-commerce facilities across the country, as the big-box giant and other retailers brace for a tougher year ahead.
Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, is shrinking its workforce as many retailers plan on roughly flat or declining sales. Inflation and the shift back to services is taking a bite out of sales of goods, particularly after a Covid pandemic-fueled spending boom.

Walmart lays off hundreds of workers at e-commerce facilities

Walmart joins a growing list of retailers, including Amazon and Target, that are cutting costs.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The fall continues... worldwide

Deutsche Bank shares slide 14% after sudden spike in the cost of insuring against its default

Deutsche Bank shares fell 14% on Friday after a spike in credit default swaps on Thursday night, as concerns about the stability of Europe's banks persisted.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Consumers are giving into the crushing inflation. The numbers show where they have cut back.
Unfortunately, most adults need a vehicle to get back and forth to work. That also shows (below). That too will dwindle as the recession deepens.

 

[Lightning8]

Coming from a guy who is losing billions of your retirement dollars... LOL

______________________
BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink raised the specter of the "silent crisis" of retirement facing the global economy as increased longevity makes issues such as higher housing and healthcare costs for retirees more daunting.
In his closely watched annual letter, Fink, the co-founder of the $8.6 trillion money manager (BLK), said "investing for a financial goal like retirement is an act of hope and optimism, demonstrating a long-term perspective, trust in financial institutions, and belief in the integrity of the market."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees retirement as 'silent crisis' facing global economy

www.morningstar.com

Actually, old news. We saw this 10 years ago in Pulp and Paper. Generation of workers - maintenance, operators, engineers - all leaving same time. Note that Obamacare helps facilitate early retirement as you now have a health option before Medicare at 65. The "unemployment rates) are meaningless now - "participation rate" is the real number to watch and it has been dropping for years. Lots of people 50+ saying screw it and leaving while younger workers are in their parents' basement. We were automating everything we could when I took early retirement.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Actually, old news. We saw this 10 years ago in Pulp and Paper. Generation of workers - maintenance, operators, engineers - all leaving same time. Note that Obamacare helps facilitate early retirement as you now have a health option before Medicare at 65. The "unemployment rates) are meaningless now - "participation rate" is the real number to watch and it has been dropping for years. Lots of people 50+ saying screw it and leaving while younger workers are in their parents' basement. We were automating everything we could when I took early retirement.

We agree... Old News / History Repeating saw this with the coal miners, loggers, steel mill workers, etc. Watched Exxon lay off thousands as "automation" came into the oil and chemical industries. a valve could be opened or closed from a control room a mile away. As computers and satellite communication advanced, jobs disappeared.
I'm over on the Ford Truck Fanatics website. The younger mechanics refuse to work on a vehicle without On Board Diagnostics (OBD 1, OBD 2). I'm laughing when a guy with one of the first Ford diesel trucks needs something diagnosed. The term is he must take it to a "Dirt Lot Mechanic".... See, "Shade Tree Mechanic" has been redefined to "Dirt Lot Mechanic". Still a great demand for those guy's.

 

[Lightning8]

We agree... Old News / History Repeating saw this with the coal miners, loggers, steel mill workers, etc. Watched Exxon lay off thousands as "automation" came into the oil and chemical industries. a valve could be opened or closed from a control room a mile away. As computers and satellite communication advanced, jobs disappeared.
I'm over on the Ford Truck Fanatics website. The younger mechanics refuse to work on a vehicle without On Board Diagnostics (OBD 1, OBD 2). I'm laughing when a guy with one of the first Ford diesel trucks needs something diagnosed. The term is he must take it to a "Dirt Lot Mechanic".... See, "Shade Tree Mechanic" has been redefined to "Dirt Lot Mechanic". Still a great demand for those guy's.

Automation I was working on for paper mills (and refineries) required one control room operator for entire complex plus one dog. Dog's job was to bite the operator if he touched the controls - the AI/ML/algorithms ran the site. Fully autonomous process sites. Tech is there.

 

[babyguppy]

Walmart
is laying off hundreds of employees at e-commerce facilities across the country, as the big-box giant and other retailers brace for a tougher year ahead.
Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, is shrinking its workforce as many retailers plan on roughly flat or declining sales. Inflation and the shift back to services is taking a bite out of sales of goods, particularly after a Covid pandemic-fueled spending boom.

Walmart lays off hundreds of workers at e-commerce facilities

Walmart joins a growing list of retailers, including Amazon and Target, that are cutting costs.

www.cnbc.com

funny, you never hear about executives losing their jobs, always bottom tier folks.
some companies should fire the executives, since it's their decisions that lead to poor financial and business performance, which leads to underperforming stores and metrics.
The Japanese believed that firing workers is a direct indicator of poor mgmt.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

March 24 (Reuters) - It's an old saw: A credit crunch is when your bank won't lend to you. A credit crisis is when banks won't lend to each other.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the banking system upheaval it triggered "are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes."
In other words: a credit crunch is coming.

The Fed sees a looming credit crunch. What's that?

It's an old saw: A credit crunch is when your bank won't lend to you. A credit crisis is when banks won't lend to each other.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

"Bread and Circus"... The circus is laying off

Disney layoffs will begin this week, CEO Bob Iger says in memo

Disney CEO Bob Iger notified employees in a memo that job losses will begin this week.

www.cnbc.com

 

[babyguppy]

Mgmt fk's it up, little guy pays. The same could be said of current US leadership.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Not having a "cash reserve" is like skating on thin ice.
There will be other high fliers learning that lesson this year... Some consumers also, who are operating on credit cards.
Cash is King.... Gold is better.

Virgin Orbit extends unpaid pause as Brown deal collapses, 'dynamic' talks continue

The company's late-stage deal talks, including with private investor Matthew Brown, collapsed over the weekend, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Lightning8]

Pactiv Evergreen is closing the factory within the coming months, jeopardizing the livelihoods of its over 1,100 employees​

Century-old NC paper mill that employs 1,100 to abruptly close, mayor says small town's soul being ripped out

A paper mill that has operated in Canton, North Carolina, for over a century announced it will be shutting down, leaving the local community devastated.

www.foxbusiness.com

I am retired Pulp and Paper/Packaging. Most US paper mills are very old and need very expensive repairs, upgrades, etc. Bet the mill needed very expensive repairs and, in this economy, etc. decision made to shut down. More of this will be coming. High maintenance, cannot get workers, regulatory hassles = closed mills.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I am retired Pulp and Paper/Packaging. Most US paper mills are very old and need very expensive repairs, upgrades, etc. Bet the mill needed very expensive repairs and, in this economy, etc. decision made to shut down. More of this will be coming. High maintenance, cannot get workers, regulatory hassles = closed mills.

True, as America is winding down, the natural resources are being preserved. As other countries consume their natural resources and turn them into products American's buy...... The North American continent is becoming the "Crown Jewel" of natural resources.
Anyone care to finish these thoughts ?

 

[Stephen Bachiler]

True, as America is winding down, the natural resources are being preserved. As other countries consume their natural resources and turn them into products American's buy...... The North American continent is becoming the "Crown Jewel" of natural resources.
Anyone care to finish these thoughts ?

I will finish the thought...we will move from Globalism....back to the economic model of the 16th, 17th & 18th Centuries...called Mercantilism.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

More American's working a second job to support those who choose to not work.
_________________________
It’s getting harder to keep up with higher prices.
As of February, 62% of all U.S. adults were living paycheck to paycheck, up from 60% a month earlier, according to a new LendingClub report.
To make ends meet, more people have picked up a side hustle, the report also found.
As pandemic-related benefits are scaled back, “many have turned to supplemental income with a side job or alternative income sources to improve their financial standing,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer.

With 62% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck amid inflation, more people have a side job

As it gets harder to keep up with higher prices, more people have picked up a side job to improve their financial standing, according to a new report.

www.cnbc.com

 

[fpgt72]

Not having a "cash reserve" is like skating on thin ice.
There will be other high fliers learning that lesson this year... Some consumers also, who are operating on credit cards.
Cash is King.... Gold is better.

Virgin Orbit extends unpaid pause as Brown deal collapses, 'dynamic' talks continue

The company's late-stage deal talks, including with private investor Matthew Brown, collapsed over the weekend, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

I think I would be safe in saying very few public companies have a "cash reserve". I just have a feeling that reserve just sitting there would be too tempting to rape.....err put that money to work.....yea thats it.

 

[fpgt72]

True, as America is winding down, the natural resources are being preserved. As other countries consume their natural resources and turn them into products American's buy...... The North American continent is becoming the "Crown Jewel" of natural resources.
Anyone care to finish these thoughts ?

I will finish the thought...we will move from Globalism....back to the economic model of the 16th, 17th & 18th Centuries...called Mercantilism.

I would say depends. Depends on just what resource we are talking about, the US does not have everything. Yes we are sitting on huge stocks of things like oil and natural gas, but other places have that as well, we really don't know what is under the sand in the mid east, or the steps of Russia. We don't have things like Cobalt or what is needed for rare earth magnets. Then there is the issue of the crippling regulations. That would need to be done away with.

 

[Stephen Bachiler]

I would say depends. Depends on just what resource we are talking about, the US does not have everything. Yes we are sitting on huge stocks of things like oil and natural gas, but other places have that as well, we really don't know what is under the sand in the mid east, or the steps of Russia. We don't have things like Cobalt or what is needed for rare earth magnets. Then there is the issue of the crippling regulations. That would need to be done away with.

Indeed you make valid points. What we have (Fresh Water, Oil, Gas, Coal, Farmland - food - textiles, protective natural barriers)

What we are now building: Semiconductor foundries

What we need to build: rare earth mining capacity I think we have more of this than is understood (Alaska and Western States - And depending on your view of Canada).
Drug manufacturing (Way to reliant on India/China).

Much of what we would most likely give up are Consumer Discretionary and Non Durable items (which might be a good thing).

This entire process would be highly inflationary or the USA...BUT it would also keep more money within our US system vs flowing dollarsto other Countries treasury.

Mercantilism looks to export only what we have a surplus of and Import only things we can't produce ourselves BUT wih an eye toward developing those abilities.

It also calls for an accumulation of Surpluses (Traditionaly of Gold) to our Treasury. Historically the "problem" with Mercantilism is it ends in WAR between nations...but as we have seem in the 100+ year move toward Globalism...that does too.

 

[fpgt72]

Indeed you make valid points. What we have (Fresh Water, Oil, Gas, Coal, Farmland - food - textiles, protective natural barriers)

What we are now building: Semiconductor foundries

What we need to build: rare earth mining capacity I think we have more of this than is understood (Alaska and Western States - And depending on your view of Canada).
Drug manufacturing (Way to reliant on India/China).

Much of what we would most likely give up are Consumer Discretionary and Non Durable items (which might be a good thing).

This entire process would be highly inflationary or the USA...BUT it would also keep more money within our US system vs flowing dollarsto other Countries treasury.

Mercantilism looks to export only what we have a surplus of and Import only things we can't produce ourselves BUT wih an eye toward developing those abilities.

It also calls for an accumulation of Surpluses (Traditionaly of Gold) to our Treasury. Historically the "problem" with Mercantilism is it ends in WAR between nations...but as we have seem in the 100+ year move toward Globalism...that does too.

I agree with everything you say, the one thing standing in the way are the regulations. It is just too much of a pain in the ass to do anything here....unless you grease the right people that is.

All we need to do is flush the toilet....totally and start over from scratch. Flush it down to a minimum of "middle management". Sure it will be painful in ways that one can not imagine. But I think at this point it is the only thing left.

 

[devildog93]

I would say depends. Depends on just what resource we are talking about, the US does not have everything. Yes we are sitting on huge stocks of things like oil and natural gas, but other places have that as well, we really don't know what is under the sand in the mid east, or the steps of Russia. We don't have things like Cobalt or what is needed for rare earth magnets. Then there is the issue of the crippling regulations. That would need to be done away with.

I think we do have large swaths of rare earth metals, but they are locked up in protected areas and are national parks and such. I think we could probably make do with what we have here or at least trade for what we need.

Actually they just found a craploads in a spot in West Texas that would cover quite a bit.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Indeed you make valid points. What we have (Fresh Water, Oil, Gas, Coal, Farmland - food - textiles, protective natural barriers)

What we are now building: Semiconductor foundries

What we need to build: rare earth mining capacity I think we have more of this than is understood (Alaska and Western States - And depending on your view of Canada).
Drug manufacturing (Way to reliant on India/China).

Much of what we would most likely give up are Consumer Discretionary and Non Durable items (which might be a good thing).

This entire process would be highly inflationary or the USA...BUT it would also keep more money within our US system vs flowing dollarsto other Countries treasury.

Mercantilism looks to export only what we have a surplus of and Import only things we can't produce ourselves BUT wih an eye toward developing those abilities.

It also calls for an accumulation of Surpluses (Traditionaly of Gold) to our Treasury. Historically the "problem" with Mercantilism is it ends in WAR between nations...but as we have seem in the 100+ year move toward Globalism...that does too.

War was where my mind was beginning to focus. More so, an invasion to capture the remaining natural resources on Earth.
It will take a large, well trained and well funded Army to defend what is left after other countries deplete or loose their resources.
I'm looking at the long game.

 

[babyguppy]

True, as America is winding down, the natural resources are being preserved. As other countries consume their natural resources and turn them into products American's buy...... The North American continent is becoming the "Crown Jewel" of natural resources.
Anyone care to finish these thoughts ?

except........
Trees are a renewable resource. Just plant more. We have more oil than Saudi Arabia.
Largest coal reserves in the world. Politicians are closing the US down, since they are getting $$ from other countries to not tap USA's resources.

Top five countries with the world's largest coal reserves in 2019

The world's entire proven coal reserves were estimated at more than one trillion tonnes in 2019, with just a few countries holding the largest deposits.

www.nsenergybusiness.com