Ok, i've read Patriots and am currently reading Survivors. I am aware that these are works of fiction based upon the economic collapse scenario and while I understand basic economics like supply and demand can some of you more learned people explain or point me in the right direction as to what drives this? What signs of the market and so forth are they refering to?
- Thread starter topgun99
- Start date
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Have not read either book but i have read plenty of Doom Porn. I think the overall issue is borrowing. There is only so much money in the world and yet more is injected via a loan. If all debts are paid there would be no money left in the system.
That is over simplified. <span style="color: #FF0000">Most empires killed them selves with debt and inflation of the currency </span> . </div></div>
And trying to controll more territory than they can handle...sound familiar?
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Have not read either book but i have read plenty of Doom Porn. I think the overall issue is borrowing. There is only so much money in the world and yet more is injected via a loan. If all debts are paid there would be no money left in the system.
That is over simplified. <span style="color: #FF0000">Most empires killed them selves with debt and inflation of the currency </span> . </div></div>
And trying to controll more territory than they can handle...sound familiar?
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: maggot</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Have not read either book but i have read plenty of Doom Porn. I think the overall issue is borrowing. There is only so much money in the world and yet more is injected via a loan. If all debts are paid there would be no money left in the system.
That is over simplified. <span style="color: #FF0000">Most empires killed them selves with debt and inflation of the currency </span> . </div></div>
And trying to controll more territory than they can handle...sound familiar? </div></div>
I would suggest "End the Fed" by Ron Paul and anything about the fall of the Roman Empire.
Here is a good clip to correlate to today's debt issues ( I love the Judge)...
<object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/TSHFWQAFINQ"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/TSHFWQAFINQ" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"> </embed></object>
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: maggot</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Have not read either book but i have read plenty of Doom Porn. I think the overall issue is borrowing. There is only so much money in the world and yet more is injected via a loan. If all debts are paid there would be no money left in the system.
That is over simplified. <span style="color: #FF0000">Most empires killed them selves with debt and inflation of the currency </span> . </div></div>
And trying to controll more territory than they can handle...sound familiar? </div></div>
I would suggest "End the Fed" by Ron Paul and anything about the fall of the Roman Empire.
Here is a good clip to correlate to today's debt issues ( I love the Judge)...
<object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/TSHFWQAFINQ"></param> <param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/TSHFWQAFINQ" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"> </embed></object>
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Or you could actually make an effort to learn about how our economy actually works and get a grasp of the fundamental complexity and beauty of commerce and the amazing tenacity of markets in spite of the legions of swine from all walks who tarnish it or bring ruin to it..
There are people out there who would deceive you into thinking that this or that commodity, piece of property, financial instrument or business venture is a sure thing, not to mention those who tout dystopia as though they KNOW what is certain to come.
Here's a good start;
http://www.amazon.com/Economics-Banking-Financial-Markets-Edition/dp/0132770245
Or you could actually make an effort to learn about how our economy actually works and get a grasp of the fundamental complexity and beauty of commerce and the amazing tenacity of markets in spite of the legions of swine from all walks who tarnish it or bring ruin to it..
There are people out there who would deceive you into thinking that this or that commodity, piece of property, financial instrument or business venture is a sure thing, not to mention those who tout dystopia as though they KNOW what is certain to come.
Here's a good start;
http://www.amazon.com/Economics-Banking-Financial-Markets-Edition/dp/0132770245
Re: Economic collapse scenario
All you really need to read to get your mind completely wrapped around this fiat system that is most assuredly guaranteed to fail is the book....." The creature from jekyll island"
Read that and then report back. Once we led the federal reserve come to existence we pretty much sealed our fate. Many think that this is some how a federal .gov organization. It's no more federal then federal express. These crooked fucks loan the treasury money at a compounding interest rate to which can never be repaid.
In the end if you don't physically have it....you don't own it and it is even questionable after that.....as in you own your home free and clear yet you continually pay rent to the irs to live there. Don't pay and you will no longer own it.
We are toast. This big experiment in a republic form of government came with it much responsibility that our parents and their parents become continually complacent of. Asleep at the wheel while the chains of your slavery were quietly being forged. Time to reap what we sow.
All you really need to read to get your mind completely wrapped around this fiat system that is most assuredly guaranteed to fail is the book....." The creature from jekyll island"
Read that and then report back. Once we led the federal reserve come to existence we pretty much sealed our fate. Many think that this is some how a federal .gov organization. It's no more federal then federal express. These crooked fucks loan the treasury money at a compounding interest rate to which can never be repaid.
In the end if you don't physically have it....you don't own it and it is even questionable after that.....as in you own your home free and clear yet you continually pay rent to the irs to live there. Don't pay and you will no longer own it.
We are toast. This big experiment in a republic form of government came with it much responsibility that our parents and their parents become continually complacent of. Asleep at the wheel while the chains of your slavery were quietly being forged. Time to reap what we sow.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: topgun99</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Ok, i've read Patriots and am currently reading Survivors. I am aware that these are works of fiction based upon the economic collapse scenario and while I understand basic economics like supply and demand can some of you more learned people explain or point me in the right direction as to what drives this? What signs of the market and so forth are they refering to? </div></div>
A) I have never read these books so I have no idea what you / they are referring to as 'signs'.
B) As for reality and 'signs' - don't worry - we're well beyond signs at this point. The handwriting is on the wall. We may figure out a way to kick the can down the road a bit longer, or it may just auger into the ground.
If your asking what is the tipping point? Who knows. Firstly, that presupposes that the markets are not currently rigged, and that economic data put out by not only our gov - but all govs around the world is factual - and we know it isn't. You want an advanced warning of the true end? Sorry, there will not be one.
Best thing you can do now to get a head start if it does happen? Start really paying attention to Europe. Starting next week Sovereign CDS (Credit Default Swaps) are to be banned in Europe - meaning they need to go back to relying on traditional bonds. The likely result is increased borrowing costs. Maybe they can print their way out of it (worked for Japan / Zimbabwe right?) Or maybe the Germans are willing to go on the hook for the Greeks and the Italians, and the French will do the same for the Spanish and the Irish - and collectively they will issue EuroBonds, or maybe the FED just prints more paper and we step in - until our cost of funds increases. House of cards man, house of cards.
If you want a better understanding of what the warning signs look like in practice search out FerFal's postings on what it was like when Argentina went under. (Google FerFal + Argentina and you will get there). Effectively IIRC as a nation they woke up one day to turn on the morning news and the broadcaster said 'the banks are closed today and the nation is broke'. From that point the gov seized the accounts, revalued the existing deposits on file, and if you didn't have it in hand prior to the gov doing this (so you could exchange into US Dollars or gold or get it out of the country) you were screwed. Couple of other notes from that - lots of hungry folks. Keep in mind Argentina produced a lot of food and was capable of feeding their own, but they exported it so as to generate revenue instead. His blog is worth the read.
Here is one other thing to chew on: Capitalism + our existing system of fiat based debt works only because of expansion. The means of production became too expensive to continue in Western nations and therefore production was outsourced to nation states with lower production costs. Western nation states 'expanded' by selling and servicing debt. We now have tightly controlled production (try to buy 200 toilets for a motel refurb - there is no slack in the supply chain - they must be manufactured) and we have a massive debt bubble. The crisis is not one of credit - the Fed and the EBC alone have been pumping trillions into the banks for years. The crisis is one of solvency. From this point forward what is the easiest means to create a new need for both production and debt expansion?
Good luck
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: topgun99</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Ok, i've read Patriots and am currently reading Survivors. I am aware that these are works of fiction based upon the economic collapse scenario and while I understand basic economics like supply and demand can some of you more learned people explain or point me in the right direction as to what drives this? What signs of the market and so forth are they refering to? </div></div>
A) I have never read these books so I have no idea what you / they are referring to as 'signs'.
B) As for reality and 'signs' - don't worry - we're well beyond signs at this point. The handwriting is on the wall. We may figure out a way to kick the can down the road a bit longer, or it may just auger into the ground.
If your asking what is the tipping point? Who knows. Firstly, that presupposes that the markets are not currently rigged, and that economic data put out by not only our gov - but all govs around the world is factual - and we know it isn't. You want an advanced warning of the true end? Sorry, there will not be one.
Best thing you can do now to get a head start if it does happen? Start really paying attention to Europe. Starting next week Sovereign CDS (Credit Default Swaps) are to be banned in Europe - meaning they need to go back to relying on traditional bonds. The likely result is increased borrowing costs. Maybe they can print their way out of it (worked for Japan / Zimbabwe right?) Or maybe the Germans are willing to go on the hook for the Greeks and the Italians, and the French will do the same for the Spanish and the Irish - and collectively they will issue EuroBonds, or maybe the FED just prints more paper and we step in - until our cost of funds increases. House of cards man, house of cards.
If you want a better understanding of what the warning signs look like in practice search out FerFal's postings on what it was like when Argentina went under. (Google FerFal + Argentina and you will get there). Effectively IIRC as a nation they woke up one day to turn on the morning news and the broadcaster said 'the banks are closed today and the nation is broke'. From that point the gov seized the accounts, revalued the existing deposits on file, and if you didn't have it in hand prior to the gov doing this (so you could exchange into US Dollars or gold or get it out of the country) you were screwed. Couple of other notes from that - lots of hungry folks. Keep in mind Argentina produced a lot of food and was capable of feeding their own, but they exported it so as to generate revenue instead. His blog is worth the read.
Here is one other thing to chew on: Capitalism + our existing system of fiat based debt works only because of expansion. The means of production became too expensive to continue in Western nations and therefore production was outsourced to nation states with lower production costs. Western nation states 'expanded' by selling and servicing debt. We now have tightly controlled production (try to buy 200 toilets for a motel refurb - there is no slack in the supply chain - they must be manufactured) and we have a massive debt bubble. The crisis is not one of credit - the Fed and the EBC alone have been pumping trillions into the banks for years. The crisis is one of solvency. From this point forward what is the easiest means to create a new need for both production and debt expansion?
Good luck
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">From this point forward what is the easiest means to create a new need for both production and debt expansion?</div></div>
Like the judge said... war! What is it good for?
Having read Patriots and The Creature from Jekyll Island I can attest that there are no signs in the former but the blueprint is included in the later.
"Gentlemen... prepare for battle!"
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">From this point forward what is the easiest means to create a new need for both production and debt expansion?</div></div>
Like the judge said... war! What is it good for?
Having read Patriots and The Creature from Jekyll Island I can attest that there are no signs in the former but the blueprint is included in the later.
"Gentlemen... prepare for battle!"
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Theres an old saying that seems particularly apt here.
"Sow to the wind and reap the whirlwind."
In more western terms.
"Every action has an equal and opposite reaction."
Or in street jive.
"What goes around comes around."
Theres an old saying that seems particularly apt here.
"Sow to the wind and reap the whirlwind."
In more western terms.
"Every action has an equal and opposite reaction."
Or in street jive.
"What goes around comes around."
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: queequeg</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Or you could actually make an effort to learn about how our economy actually works and get a grasp of the fundamental complexity and beauty of commerce and the amazing tenacity of markets in spite of the legions of swine from all walks who tarnish it or bring ruin to it..
There are people out there who would deceive you into thinking that this or that commodity, piece of property, financial instrument or business venture is a sure thing, not to mention those who tout dystopia as though they KNOW what is certain to come.
Here's a good start;
http://www.amazon.com/Economics-Banking-Financial-Markets-Edition/dp/0132770245 </div></div>
This is good advice because without a ground level knowledge you won't understand the answers. BTW - how do you know who to vote for if you don't understand economics etc?
Anyway, while reading up on this know one thing - no text book or 'process' book will tell you what the deal truly is...
At the tradesman/local level, the economy works fairly well and this is a good thing because the bulk of the economy is based on this. But the 'higher finance' level it's a totally rigged game. Totally.
I provide sales and services to most of the Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI's) as categorized by some of the new regulations coming out of the financial crisis. I work closely with the Chief Risk Officers in these banks/insurers - some of whom own the risk management of trillions of dollars of exposures (you'll learn what that means if you read the Mishkin book). In speaking with one of these guys I made an observation about the nature of the data he uses to run his risk models. Basically, it's flawed in forecasting methods to any period further out than 2 years (as in the data will ALWAYS corrupt the output no matter how good the math). Here's this guy's response and keep in mind he's a PhD from an Ivy League and MBA etc...
"I don't care. By that time I'm in another bank or in a hedge fund. Can you give me the data I need so that I can model for one year out..."
One year out... and this is one of the 'better' institutions... So, lessons learned from the Financial Crisis?... Don't be in the same bank for too long... nothing about 'yeah, I know, that's a mortgage product I don't give a fuck about and it can devastate the 2 million mortgage holders on that note when it blows up...
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: queequeg</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Or you could actually make an effort to learn about how our economy actually works and get a grasp of the fundamental complexity and beauty of commerce and the amazing tenacity of markets in spite of the legions of swine from all walks who tarnish it or bring ruin to it..
There are people out there who would deceive you into thinking that this or that commodity, piece of property, financial instrument or business venture is a sure thing, not to mention those who tout dystopia as though they KNOW what is certain to come.
Here's a good start;
http://www.amazon.com/Economics-Banking-Financial-Markets-Edition/dp/0132770245 </div></div>
This is good advice because without a ground level knowledge you won't understand the answers. BTW - how do you know who to vote for if you don't understand economics etc?
Anyway, while reading up on this know one thing - no text book or 'process' book will tell you what the deal truly is...
At the tradesman/local level, the economy works fairly well and this is a good thing because the bulk of the economy is based on this. But the 'higher finance' level it's a totally rigged game. Totally.
I provide sales and services to most of the Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI's) as categorized by some of the new regulations coming out of the financial crisis. I work closely with the Chief Risk Officers in these banks/insurers - some of whom own the risk management of trillions of dollars of exposures (you'll learn what that means if you read the Mishkin book). In speaking with one of these guys I made an observation about the nature of the data he uses to run his risk models. Basically, it's flawed in forecasting methods to any period further out than 2 years (as in the data will ALWAYS corrupt the output no matter how good the math). Here's this guy's response and keep in mind he's a PhD from an Ivy League and MBA etc...
"I don't care. By that time I'm in another bank or in a hedge fund. Can you give me the data I need so that I can model for one year out..."
One year out... and this is one of the 'better' institutions... So, lessons learned from the Financial Crisis?... Don't be in the same bank for too long... nothing about 'yeah, I know, that's a mortgage product I don't give a fuck about and it can devastate the 2 million mortgage holders on that note when it blows up...
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Killswitch engage</div><div class="ubbcode-body">All you really need to read to get your mind completely wrapped around this fiat system that is most assuredly guaranteed to fail is the book....." The creature from jekyll island"
Read that and then report back. Once we led the federal reserve come to existence we pretty much sealed our fate. Many think that this is some how a federal .gov organization. It's no more federal then federal express. These crooked fucks loan the treasury money at a compounding interest rate to which can never be repaid.
In the end if you don't physically have it....you don't own it and it is even questionable after that.....as in you own your home free and clear yet you continually pay rent to the irs to live there. Don't pay and you will no longer own it.
We are toast. This big experiment in a republic form of government came with it much responsibility that our parents and their parents become continually complacent of. Asleep at the wheel while the chains of your slavery were quietly being forged. Time to reap what we sow.
</div></div>
Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Killswitch engage</div><div class="ubbcode-body">All you really need to read to get your mind completely wrapped around this fiat system that is most assuredly guaranteed to fail is the book....." The creature from jekyll island"
Read that and then report back. Once we led the federal reserve come to existence we pretty much sealed our fate. Many think that this is some how a federal .gov organization. It's no more federal then federal express. These crooked fucks loan the treasury money at a compounding interest rate to which can never be repaid.
In the end if you don't physically have it....you don't own it and it is even questionable after that.....as in you own your home free and clear yet you continually pay rent to the irs to live there. Don't pay and you will no longer own it.
We are toast. This big experiment in a republic form of government came with it much responsibility that our parents and their parents become continually complacent of. Asleep at the wheel while the chains of your slavery were quietly being forged. Time to reap what we sow.
</div></div>
Creature from Jekyll Island is a must read.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
The entire system is flawed and is destined to fail. As someone already mentioned the only way it succeeds is through expansion, once expansion ceases, in any form, it is doomed. The only good news, if you can think of it as good news, is that if we fail, then everyone fails and we all start over. All of this money that the wealthy have tied up all over the place will be worthless. Think wealthy at this point in time being whoever has the most to barter and trade with. Its a sad reality and all anyone has been doing for the past 50+ years is trying to figure out a way to prolong the inevitable collapse.
The entire system is flawed and is destined to fail. As someone already mentioned the only way it succeeds is through expansion, once expansion ceases, in any form, it is doomed. The only good news, if you can think of it as good news, is that if we fail, then everyone fails and we all start over. All of this money that the wealthy have tied up all over the place will be worthless. Think wealthy at this point in time being whoever has the most to barter and trade with. Its a sad reality and all anyone has been doing for the past 50+ years is trying to figure out a way to prolong the inevitable collapse.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
I never took a class in economics and like most low income people I have always had the kind of job where it didn't matter...I was too busy surviving and barely making ends meet with no savings and certainly nothing left over to make investments. As to how I decided how to vote, in my opinion it's always a crap shoot...I will find a copy of creature from jekyll island and read it.
I never took a class in economics and like most low income people I have always had the kind of job where it didn't matter...I was too busy surviving and barely making ends meet with no savings and certainly nothing left over to make investments. As to how I decided how to vote, in my opinion it's always a crap shoot...I will find a copy of creature from jekyll island and read it.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Anyway, while reading up on this know one thing - no text book or 'process' book will tell you what the deal truly is...
<span style="color: #3333FF"> I think the other thing that should be added to this is - economics is a predictable model for change, whereby when coupled with policy (read politics) and force, it is the means by which society - at the global -> local level is shaped. And....as always, those with the gold make the rules. Therefore one should include a few books that give a macro perspective on how the world really works.</span>
I provide sales and services to most of the Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI's) as categorized by some of the new regulations coming out of the financial crisis. I work closely with the Chief Risk Officers in these banks/insurers - some of whom own the risk management of trillions of dollars of exposures (you'll learn what that means if you read the Mishkin book). In speaking with one of these guys I made an observation about the nature of the data he uses to run his risk models. Basically, it's flawed in forecasting methods to any period further out than 2 years (as in the data will ALWAYS corrupt the output no matter how good the math). Here's this guy's response and keep in mind he's a PhD from an Ivy League and MBA etc...
<span style="color: #3333FF">Firstly, it is arguable that depending on who 'one' is, or 'which' firm we are talking about there is NO risk as we are clearly operating on a new frontier - where moral hazard is acceptable since too big to fail has become the established norm. Furthermore, and as Corzine has shown, some individuals may abscond with massive accumulations of other peoples' wealth, lie before Congress, and walk. Secondly, with the level of collusion / corruption that exists, combined with some structural issues like HFT - some firms can make their own weather. Thus while some are forecasting the 'markets', a select few are forecasting the game itself. That is clear perversion of the market</span>
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
<span style="color: #3333FF">And the omnipresent thought of all of us in the fodder class needs to be how the f*ck is it that we just went through 2008, Dodd / Frank comes out - and it is more if the same bullshit? These same shitbags are allowed to have tremendous sway of the rules that will regulate them? How is it that we are allowing QE to continue? When will people around the world figure out the great fraud and further realize that the 'debt' is not the debt of the people, and finally then realize they have been enslaved by those 'out of the fodder class'. I personally want see heads on pikes, not of sacrificial lambs, but of the REAL power elite.</span></div></div>
Good luck
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Anyway, while reading up on this know one thing - no text book or 'process' book will tell you what the deal truly is...
<span style="color: #3333FF"> I think the other thing that should be added to this is - economics is a predictable model for change, whereby when coupled with policy (read politics) and force, it is the means by which society - at the global -> local level is shaped. And....as always, those with the gold make the rules. Therefore one should include a few books that give a macro perspective on how the world really works.</span>
I provide sales and services to most of the Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI's) as categorized by some of the new regulations coming out of the financial crisis. I work closely with the Chief Risk Officers in these banks/insurers - some of whom own the risk management of trillions of dollars of exposures (you'll learn what that means if you read the Mishkin book). In speaking with one of these guys I made an observation about the nature of the data he uses to run his risk models. Basically, it's flawed in forecasting methods to any period further out than 2 years (as in the data will ALWAYS corrupt the output no matter how good the math). Here's this guy's response and keep in mind he's a PhD from an Ivy League and MBA etc...
<span style="color: #3333FF">Firstly, it is arguable that depending on who 'one' is, or 'which' firm we are talking about there is NO risk as we are clearly operating on a new frontier - where moral hazard is acceptable since too big to fail has become the established norm. Furthermore, and as Corzine has shown, some individuals may abscond with massive accumulations of other peoples' wealth, lie before Congress, and walk. Secondly, with the level of collusion / corruption that exists, combined with some structural issues like HFT - some firms can make their own weather. Thus while some are forecasting the 'markets', a select few are forecasting the game itself. That is clear perversion of the market</span>
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
<span style="color: #3333FF">And the omnipresent thought of all of us in the fodder class needs to be how the f*ck is it that we just went through 2008, Dodd / Frank comes out - and it is more if the same bullshit? These same shitbags are allowed to have tremendous sway of the rules that will regulate them? How is it that we are allowing QE to continue? When will people around the world figure out the great fraud and further realize that the 'debt' is not the debt of the people, and finally then realize they have been enslaved by those 'out of the fodder class'. I personally want see heads on pikes, not of sacrificial lambs, but of the REAL power elite.</span></div></div>
Good luck
Re: Economic collapse scenario
System = people and designers/elites of how people interact are educated and live tried to produce dumb consumers who are gullible, self centered, spoiled and very keen to follow any idea properly presented to them. They've succeeded far beyond their expectations and here lies their failure because the amount of such people has prevailed and there are not enough producers and those who remained normal or were educated/able to see through refuse to ignore the shit that has piled upon the west and slowly but surely things are falling apart and "elites" are panicking because this is not what they intended. However since it took several decades to dumb down people this thing is set to fail and bastards are running out of time and people to milk (they've totally misjudged the power of internet and flow of information -> watch how they'll turn it off soon). Their oligarch utopia is doomed as truth is their biggest enemy and more and more people are seeing it.
System = people and designers/elites of how people interact are educated and live tried to produce dumb consumers who are gullible, self centered, spoiled and very keen to follow any idea properly presented to them. They've succeeded far beyond their expectations and here lies their failure because the amount of such people has prevailed and there are not enough producers and those who remained normal or were educated/able to see through refuse to ignore the shit that has piled upon the west and slowly but surely things are falling apart and "elites" are panicking because this is not what they intended. However since it took several decades to dumb down people this thing is set to fail and bastards are running out of time and people to milk (they've totally misjudged the power of internet and flow of information -> watch how they'll turn it off soon). Their oligarch utopia is doomed as truth is their biggest enemy and more and more people are seeing it.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Amen, Sharac. And, I have read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Amen, Sharac. And, I have read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Subsistance jobs and education in current policies of economic behaviors just don't seem to mix for some reason. I find it odd though, that many of those in subsistance jobs have plenty opf money for either drugs or alcohol on payday Friday Night(not directing this to the OP, it's just a population generalization).
Education in the way our flawed system works is a must for anyone who wants to succeed or move up from subsistance level.
In the current economy that means two things at least:
First, find a way to get educated. There are many ways out there to do this that are avaialable.
Secondly, do it in an area of specialization that will net a real job in the future. An associate's degree will net one somewhere around $20.5k - $35k a year. A BS, BBM, or similiar degree in IT, Allied Health, Engineering(Chemical, Mechanical, Biological, Mathmatecal), Sciences, will usually net something in a field with DEMAND, around a $45k entry level start.
One thing I know to be true: The raman diet is in full swing during this time of educational training to get the brass ring of success. It's tough, fights over money and what to do with the little there is abound. So long as the course is stayed, and dilligince is given toward the goal though, success will come, and the step from subsistance to savings and investment allowance will be seen
Subsistance jobs and education in current policies of economic behaviors just don't seem to mix for some reason. I find it odd though, that many of those in subsistance jobs have plenty opf money for either drugs or alcohol on payday Friday Night(not directing this to the OP, it's just a population generalization).
Education in the way our flawed system works is a must for anyone who wants to succeed or move up from subsistance level.
In the current economy that means two things at least:
First, find a way to get educated. There are many ways out there to do this that are avaialable.
Secondly, do it in an area of specialization that will net a real job in the future. An associate's degree will net one somewhere around $20.5k - $35k a year. A BS, BBM, or similiar degree in IT, Allied Health, Engineering(Chemical, Mechanical, Biological, Mathmatecal), Sciences, will usually net something in a field with DEMAND, around a $45k entry level start.
One thing I know to be true: The raman diet is in full swing during this time of educational training to get the brass ring of success. It's tough, fights over money and what to do with the little there is abound. So long as the course is stayed, and dilligince is given toward the goal though, success will come, and the step from subsistance to savings and investment allowance will be seen
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I don't think they teach this stuff in collage. At least not the part about all the high level systemic flaws that lurk in the shadows.</div></div>
A solid freshman-level course in macroeconomics sure helps with understanding the current mess, however. A whole lotta things in life come down to the characteristics of those pesky supply and demand curves, and how they relate to one another.
As far as the OP's question is concerned about warning signs - start by looking for evidence that something is not sustainable, and act accordingly.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: cstmwrks</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I don't think they teach this stuff in collage. At least not the part about all the high level systemic flaws that lurk in the shadows.</div></div>
A solid freshman-level course in macroeconomics sure helps with understanding the current mess, however. A whole lotta things in life come down to the characteristics of those pesky supply and demand curves, and how they relate to one another.
As far as the OP's question is concerned about warning signs - start by looking for evidence that something is not sustainable, and act accordingly.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
School is all fine and dandy except the fact we now have a trillion with a t....in student loan debt, a highly saturated market of job seekers and not nearly enough jobs. When the shtf in 08 everyone that lost their jobs thought the same thing....I'll go back to school and then get a different job. 2012 comes and 4yr degree program grads are popping out everywhere and guess what? No jobs. So now you have these highly educated job seekers flipping burgers and stocking shelves and shit.....oh and don't forget making payments on that 50k with of education that they deferred payments on until graduation.
Guess where we go from here?
School is all fine and dandy except the fact we now have a trillion with a t....in student loan debt, a highly saturated market of job seekers and not nearly enough jobs. When the shtf in 08 everyone that lost their jobs thought the same thing....I'll go back to school and then get a different job. 2012 comes and 4yr degree program grads are popping out everywhere and guess what? No jobs. So now you have these highly educated job seekers flipping burgers and stocking shelves and shit.....oh and don't forget making payments on that 50k with of education that they deferred payments on until graduation.
Guess where we go from here?
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life. The only thing that is keeping our economy from hitting rock bottom is that confidence. After all, it is just paper and bytes of data.
Now, once that goes (Globally) currencies across the world will exchange their $$'s for whatever currency seems strong enough or suitable replacement. Basicaly, the money will not be worth what it is printed on and even the cheap shit from China will be too expensive.
This is a monetary "sign" of when it will occur... the fiscal way we have ran ourselves for the last 60 years is the reason it failed. Not supply and demand.
Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life. The only thing that is keeping our economy from hitting rock bottom is that confidence. After all, it is just paper and bytes of data.
Now, once that goes (Globally) currencies across the world will exchange their $$'s for whatever currency seems strong enough or suitable replacement. Basicaly, the money will not be worth what it is printed on and even the cheap shit from China will be too expensive.
This is a monetary "sign" of when it will occur... the fiscal way we have ran ourselves for the last 60 years is the reason it failed. Not supply and demand.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Everything has already occurred if you read a lot on these subjects you understand the inertia behind world financial and economic systems (flow of capital, energy and people, various financial planes and interactions). A lot of authors use analogy of a slow moving train wreck the only question is on which wagon are you, who will kiss the wall before you and who after. Stuff like education, knowing whats going on etc only helps to reshuffle inside this train, few can jump off (and not get terminally hit by speeding earth). Time for braking or changing tracks is long gone.
We're about to witness something not many people have so at least in that way our existence is special...
PS: On the upside this is also opportunity to rebuild and transform whats left into something better...
Everything has already occurred if you read a lot on these subjects you understand the inertia behind world financial and economic systems (flow of capital, energy and people, various financial planes and interactions). A lot of authors use analogy of a slow moving train wreck the only question is on which wagon are you, who will kiss the wall before you and who after. Stuff like education, knowing whats going on etc only helps to reshuffle inside this train, few can jump off (and not get terminally hit by speeding earth). Time for braking or changing tracks is long gone.
We're about to witness something not many people have so at least in that way our existence is special...
PS: On the upside this is also opportunity to rebuild and transform whats left into something better...
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: VA Gentleman</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life.</div></div>
And ironically enough, we can also be screwed if other currencies collapse and everyone runs <span style="font-style: italic">to</span> the dollar (which is what we saw happen during the '08 crisis). If everyone dumps their own currency and chases after dollars, then deflation occurs. If deflation occurs, then the ability to service debt becomes threatened (which is one of several reasons that Bernacke keeps pressing Ctrl+P), and systemic collapse is possible.
That's really the pisser with modern monetary policy - it's necessary to constantly create a bit of extra money and sustain moderate inflation, but not too much or too little else things go off the rails. And if you're really unlucky, both inflation and deflation occur simultaneously, which leaves policymakers in quite the pickle.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: VA Gentleman</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life.</div></div>
And ironically enough, we can also be screwed if other currencies collapse and everyone runs <span style="font-style: italic">to</span> the dollar (which is what we saw happen during the '08 crisis). If everyone dumps their own currency and chases after dollars, then deflation occurs. If deflation occurs, then the ability to service debt becomes threatened (which is one of several reasons that Bernacke keeps pressing Ctrl+P), and systemic collapse is possible.
That's really the pisser with modern monetary policy - it's necessary to constantly create a bit of extra money and sustain moderate inflation, but not too much or too little else things go off the rails. And if you're really unlucky, both inflation and deflation occur simultaneously, which leaves policymakers in quite the pickle.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
You assume those morons know what they are doing and that the cause is economic IT IS NOT cause is social in origin and economic crisis is a symptom/result. I remember from my schooling all those phds yapping about graphs and assumptions of pure competitive market or pure monopoly and how this affects this and you do that then this but reality is much simpler.
To use a movie quote:
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Now, I got no fight with any man who does what he's told, but when he don't, the machine breaks down. And when the machine breaks down, we break down. </div></div>
You dumb down populace, you breed morons, you tolerate corruption and ineptitude you strike away morals, ethics and promote self centered exploitation of everything and value of nothing you break the system and once the wheels come off well...you see the result. There is no miracle economic solution to this problem never was never will be. Actually strike that there is it starts with G and ends with e has 8 letters and it scares people to the bone as results are random, ruthless and unfair but it always comes after the crisis is great enough.
Good read on US situation
You assume those morons know what they are doing and that the cause is economic IT IS NOT cause is social in origin and economic crisis is a symptom/result. I remember from my schooling all those phds yapping about graphs and assumptions of pure competitive market or pure monopoly and how this affects this and you do that then this but reality is much simpler.
To use a movie quote:
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Now, I got no fight with any man who does what he's told, but when he don't, the machine breaks down. And when the machine breaks down, we break down. </div></div>
You dumb down populace, you breed morons, you tolerate corruption and ineptitude you strike away morals, ethics and promote self centered exploitation of everything and value of nothing you break the system and once the wheels come off well...you see the result. There is no miracle economic solution to this problem never was never will be. Actually strike that there is it starts with G and ends with e has 8 letters and it scares people to the bone as results are random, ruthless and unfair but it always comes after the crisis is great enough.
Good read on US situation
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">You assume those morons know what they are doing and that the cause is economic IT IS NOT cause is social in origin and economic crisis is a symptom/result.</div></div>
Um, <span style="font-style: italic">I</span> never accused these guys of knowing what they are doing
The same thinking that got us into the problem is being applied to attempts at getting us out of trouble. That is not often successful.
You do bring up a good point in that economics cannot easily be separated from social behavior, given that approximately 70% of the US economy is consumer spending and this is largely a social activity.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I remember from my schooling all those phds yapping about graphs and assumptions of pure competitive market or pure monopoly and how this affects this and you do that then this but reality is much simpler.</div></div>
Reality is unfortunately far more complex than theory, because that damn human behavior is anything but predictable. The first time an economist talks about "rational actors", you know they're speaking of a situation that doesn't occur in the real world.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Good read on US situation </div></div>
Excellent read!
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Sharac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">You assume those morons know what they are doing and that the cause is economic IT IS NOT cause is social in origin and economic crisis is a symptom/result.</div></div>
Um, <span style="font-style: italic">I</span> never accused these guys of knowing what they are doing
You do bring up a good point in that economics cannot easily be separated from social behavior, given that approximately 70% of the US economy is consumer spending and this is largely a social activity.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I remember from my schooling all those phds yapping about graphs and assumptions of pure competitive market or pure monopoly and how this affects this and you do that then this but reality is much simpler.</div></div>
Reality is unfortunately far more complex than theory, because that damn human behavior is anything but predictable. The first time an economist talks about "rational actors", you know they're speaking of a situation that doesn't occur in the real world.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Good read on US situation </div></div>
Excellent read!
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Our government started dumbing down the American people back in the 60's when they took discipline out of the schools and homes. They also no longer teach history and not much math. When I go to the grocery store and give the cashier a penny so I don't get a handful back in change and they wind up calling the manager over because they don't know how to handle that it is pathetic.
Our government started dumbing down the American people back in the 60's when they took discipline out of the schools and homes. They also no longer teach history and not much math. When I go to the grocery store and give the cashier a penny so I don't get a handful back in change and they wind up calling the manager over because they don't know how to handle that it is pathetic.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
I'm camped on Jekyll Island right now. Hope no creature comes creeping around.
Guess I'll have to read the book.
I'm camped on Jekyll Island right now. Hope no creature comes creeping around.
Guess I'll have to read the book.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Stick a fork in us we're done.
Just a matter of time. This election will not make any difference.
We have spent ourselves to death. Good luck everyone.
Stick a fork in us we're done.
Just a matter of time. This election will not make any difference.
We have spent ourselves to death. Good luck everyone.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EmergencyNrse</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Stick a fork in us we're done.</div></div>
While I do not disagree with your conclusion, it does not provide any actionable information. What is the outcome of your prediction, and just as importantly, what is the timing?
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EmergencyNrse</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Stick a fork in us we're done.</div></div>
While I do not disagree with your conclusion, it does not provide any actionable information. What is the outcome of your prediction, and just as importantly, what is the timing?
Re: Economic collapse scenario
How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg
How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg
Re: Economic collapse scenario
People keep talking about 'prepping' and whatnot. I'm not saying that this isn't the thing to do. The whole concept of 'self-supportive' is still SO VERY beyond most peoples understanding.
The world, as a whole, (in my own humble opinion) would do well, and only prosper/rebound from its inevitable destructive demise, if it were to shit-can the nafta and similar agreements, and go back towards a more independent and self-reliant stance.
Make do with what you've got. And do so, locally.
See how long that would last, eh? Just the topic is rejected outright, by near everyone. I won't deny that the likelihood is zero-count, but that system worked for some-hundred years on this continent alone. It was simply pragmatic, to do so. Credit (personal AND national) as well as political-correctness (aka "personal responsibility") is what has degraded society.
The dogs are barking, the caravan is moving on, and these aren't the droids in which you're looking for. - much to those statements.
People keep talking about 'prepping' and whatnot. I'm not saying that this isn't the thing to do. The whole concept of 'self-supportive' is still SO VERY beyond most peoples understanding.
The world, as a whole, (in my own humble opinion) would do well, and only prosper/rebound from its inevitable destructive demise, if it were to shit-can the nafta and similar agreements, and go back towards a more independent and self-reliant stance.
Make do with what you've got. And do so, locally.
See how long that would last, eh? Just the topic is rejected outright, by near everyone. I won't deny that the likelihood is zero-count, but that system worked for some-hundred years on this continent alone. It was simply pragmatic, to do so. Credit (personal AND national) as well as political-correctness (aka "personal responsibility") is what has degraded society.
The dogs are barking, the caravan is moving on, and these aren't the droids in which you're looking for. - much to those statements.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg </div></div>
Well said.
Hope and resolve. It sounds lame, but I have plenty of both. If not for myself, then for the people I care about.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg </div></div>
Well said.
Hope and resolve. It sounds lame, but I have plenty of both. If not for myself, then for the people I care about.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg </div></div>
Well said! OK, Well written...
Every additional day above ground is a blessing to me, and all the treasure I could hope for. Everything in addition that is humbling.
I get angry at myself when I fail to remember that.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Greg Langelius *</div><div class="ubbcode-body">How and why we got here, or how and why we get out of here <span style="font-style: italic">as a society</span> are all issues that are beyond both my understanding and my power to resolve.
I have to deal with this on a family basis. Right now, I have a modestly decent income, and right now, it's being parcelled out to help keep three households warm, clothed, and fed. Wife, Daughter, Neice; best I can do with the limited resources at hand.
For the rest of it, I have one vote, and I'm using it. Take your best guess how, I'm not sayin'.
I'm not a prepper, I'm not into conspiracy theory, and I don't subscribe to Chicken Little's ideology.
I think we need to turn our attentions to a shorter focus. Being able to decipher the global implications may not be helpful for assuring that our closest friends and family survive and posper, but that's what will affect each of our futures with the truest imperative.
if anybody tries sticking a fork in me and mine, they may be in for some rude disappointment.
Greg </div></div>
Well said! OK, Well written...
Every additional day above ground is a blessing to me, and all the treasure I could hope for. Everything in addition that is humbling.
I get angry at myself when I fail to remember that.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Eric Bryant</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: VA Gentleman</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life.</div></div>
And ironically enough, we can also be screwed if other currencies collapse and everyone runs <span style="font-style: italic">to</span> the dollar (which is what we saw happen during the '08 crisis). If everyone dumps their own currency and chases after dollars, then deflation occurs. If deflation occurs, then the ability to service debt becomes threatened (which is one of several reasons that Bernacke keeps pressing Ctrl+P), and systemic collapse is possible.
That's really the pisser with modern monetary policy - it's necessary to constantly create a bit of extra money and sustain moderate inflation, but not too much or too little else things go off the rails. And if you're really unlucky, both inflation and deflation occur simultaneously, which leaves policymakers in quite the pickle. </div></div>
While things aren't obviously good, I think it's important for everyone to take things in perspective. The US economy is on pace for roughly 2% GDP growth, which is arguably somewhat anemic, but in the scheme of things it's actually quite an achievement for a developed economy relative to our peer group.
Let me frame things: Europe is in an economic standstill with austerity measures in periphery economies continuing to slump deeper into recession and their fiscal union does not permit the ECB to issue bonds which could effectively backstop the Euro, unlike the Federal Reserve (which arguably saved the US in 2008-2009). Emerging economies, while growing at faster clips given their smaller sizes, are still not areas investors want to put vast amounts of their money. Political uncertainty, inefficient markets and business risks such as fraud make operating in these areas very difficult and cause lots of headaches.
Despite all of America's issues, we continue to be the beacon of capitalism and the place where people WANT and HAVE to do business. We have relatively transparent accounting standards, political stability (obviously on a relative basis), and efficient markets. Additionally, we have the greatest asset in the world, American Human Capital.
Because of what I mentioned above, I believe that lack of confidence in the USD is a long ways off. There is no heir apparent to become the world's reserve currency and medium of exchange for commodities to be pegged at. While we cannot sustain our current trend of financing our entire country's operations, other large economies (i.e., China) cannot afford to stop because that would effectively ruin the value of their current holdings.
I remain cautiously optimistic on America's prospects, but we must get our current fiscal and political challenges in order over the next four years, or we put at risk all the current advantages we enjoy. Political deadlock and bipartisan politics must end to move this country forward.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Eric Bryant</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: VA Gentleman</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Quite Simply: The CONFIDENCE in $USD.
Once the confidence in the dollar goes, that will be the end of our way of life.</div></div>
And ironically enough, we can also be screwed if other currencies collapse and everyone runs <span style="font-style: italic">to</span> the dollar (which is what we saw happen during the '08 crisis). If everyone dumps their own currency and chases after dollars, then deflation occurs. If deflation occurs, then the ability to service debt becomes threatened (which is one of several reasons that Bernacke keeps pressing Ctrl+P), and systemic collapse is possible.
That's really the pisser with modern monetary policy - it's necessary to constantly create a bit of extra money and sustain moderate inflation, but not too much or too little else things go off the rails. And if you're really unlucky, both inflation and deflation occur simultaneously, which leaves policymakers in quite the pickle. </div></div>
While things aren't obviously good, I think it's important for everyone to take things in perspective. The US economy is on pace for roughly 2% GDP growth, which is arguably somewhat anemic, but in the scheme of things it's actually quite an achievement for a developed economy relative to our peer group.
Let me frame things: Europe is in an economic standstill with austerity measures in periphery economies continuing to slump deeper into recession and their fiscal union does not permit the ECB to issue bonds which could effectively backstop the Euro, unlike the Federal Reserve (which arguably saved the US in 2008-2009). Emerging economies, while growing at faster clips given their smaller sizes, are still not areas investors want to put vast amounts of their money. Political uncertainty, inefficient markets and business risks such as fraud make operating in these areas very difficult and cause lots of headaches.
Despite all of America's issues, we continue to be the beacon of capitalism and the place where people WANT and HAVE to do business. We have relatively transparent accounting standards, political stability (obviously on a relative basis), and efficient markets. Additionally, we have the greatest asset in the world, American Human Capital.
Because of what I mentioned above, I believe that lack of confidence in the USD is a long ways off. There is no heir apparent to become the world's reserve currency and medium of exchange for commodities to be pegged at. While we cannot sustain our current trend of financing our entire country's operations, other large economies (i.e., China) cannot afford to stop because that would effectively ruin the value of their current holdings.
I remain cautiously optimistic on America's prospects, but we must get our current fiscal and political challenges in order over the next four years, or we put at risk all the current advantages we enjoy. Political deadlock and bipartisan politics must end to move this country forward.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Couple points to consider -
A) 2% GDP - let's run through the basics of the latest ponzi scheme - the FED prints money out of thin air - currently $40B per month, the FED then takes that $40B per month and buys from private banks $40B worth of mortgage backed securities. The private banks in turn buy $40B worth of Treasuries. Now the FED uses a fractional reserve of 10:1 and then pumps $400B into the market - pumping the value of stocks, suppressing the value of oil, precious metals, and bonds. If you don't believe this is really going on, please review the dailies for the S&P 500 E-mini futures index. It crash lands, positive economic data points are purposely put out in the mainstream media, the algorithm driven HFT of the big hedgefunds ramp the shit out it (V shaped) for the close - none of this is real, this is make believe to keep the scam going. It is also notable that the SEC is not investigating it.
2% real growth? No chance. Also, historically coming out of a recession we have averaged more like 7% GDP increases.
B) Confidence in the USD - firstly, we need to parse the subject. Confidence by whom and in what context? If we are talking about the US Consumer (71% of our GDP) look at the current monetary policy - there is no incentive to save right now - interest coupled with inflation = negative rate of savings - right? Monetary policy is doing everything it can to force people to play the rigged game known as Wall Street. Yet everyone knows, the current crisis is not one of credit - it is one of solvency.
With respect to 'consumer confidence' - that is a squishy subject that is easily manipulated by pollsters that start with a conclusion and design a means to show it. There really isn't an econometric to show how people "feel", thus it all gets back to who were talking to. If we go to Washington DC where unemployment is low and wages are up, and talk to Sally SoccerMom at Starbucks - she probably thinks things are on the upswing. Head out to Crook Co. OR with a U1 of 14.6% - things ain't so rosy.
However, when we talk about confidence in the USD as a WRC - different story, esp if you parse out the intervention / collusion on the part of the FED to pump the US Econ - several countries are currently signing contracts to trade for goods in currencies other than USDs. With respect to China - as I have posted before, China has pursued a policy of divesting from USDs and buying gold. News flash - China is no longer our biggest creditor. It's Japan. Yeah, the same dudes that started doing QE in the '90s and are up to QE900 now - they are hopelessly f*cked. However, they buy our shitty paper...may have a little something to do with needing to rely on us for defense and not having a lot of friends in their own hood...or it could just be that they are so naive that they don't think we'd f*ck them over in a heartbeat.
C) On turning our attentions to a shorter focus, and one's ability to decipher the global implications... in the short run I agree - start thinking about how you're going to need to feed, cloth, keep moving forward - starting with you personally, your family, your friends, your community...state...region..nation. Within that though - it is imperative to understand how we got here in the first place, so when the next charlatan proposes that we must move to a same but different (inherently flawed) system to save ourselves - we can intelligently resist.
Good luck
Couple points to consider -
A) 2% GDP - let's run through the basics of the latest ponzi scheme - the FED prints money out of thin air - currently $40B per month, the FED then takes that $40B per month and buys from private banks $40B worth of mortgage backed securities. The private banks in turn buy $40B worth of Treasuries. Now the FED uses a fractional reserve of 10:1 and then pumps $400B into the market - pumping the value of stocks, suppressing the value of oil, precious metals, and bonds. If you don't believe this is really going on, please review the dailies for the S&P 500 E-mini futures index. It crash lands, positive economic data points are purposely put out in the mainstream media, the algorithm driven HFT of the big hedgefunds ramp the shit out it (V shaped) for the close - none of this is real, this is make believe to keep the scam going. It is also notable that the SEC is not investigating it.
2% real growth? No chance. Also, historically coming out of a recession we have averaged more like 7% GDP increases.
B) Confidence in the USD - firstly, we need to parse the subject. Confidence by whom and in what context? If we are talking about the US Consumer (71% of our GDP) look at the current monetary policy - there is no incentive to save right now - interest coupled with inflation = negative rate of savings - right? Monetary policy is doing everything it can to force people to play the rigged game known as Wall Street. Yet everyone knows, the current crisis is not one of credit - it is one of solvency.
With respect to 'consumer confidence' - that is a squishy subject that is easily manipulated by pollsters that start with a conclusion and design a means to show it. There really isn't an econometric to show how people "feel", thus it all gets back to who were talking to. If we go to Washington DC where unemployment is low and wages are up, and talk to Sally SoccerMom at Starbucks - she probably thinks things are on the upswing. Head out to Crook Co. OR with a U1 of 14.6% - things ain't so rosy.
However, when we talk about confidence in the USD as a WRC - different story, esp if you parse out the intervention / collusion on the part of the FED to pump the US Econ - several countries are currently signing contracts to trade for goods in currencies other than USDs. With respect to China - as I have posted before, China has pursued a policy of divesting from USDs and buying gold. News flash - China is no longer our biggest creditor. It's Japan. Yeah, the same dudes that started doing QE in the '90s and are up to QE900 now - they are hopelessly f*cked. However, they buy our shitty paper...may have a little something to do with needing to rely on us for defense and not having a lot of friends in their own hood...or it could just be that they are so naive that they don't think we'd f*ck them over in a heartbeat.
C) On turning our attentions to a shorter focus, and one's ability to decipher the global implications... in the short run I agree - start thinking about how you're going to need to feed, cloth, keep moving forward - starting with you personally, your family, your friends, your community...state...region..nation. Within that though - it is imperative to understand how we got here in the first place, so when the next charlatan proposes that we must move to a same but different (inherently flawed) system to save ourselves - we can intelligently resist.
Good luck
Re: Economic collapse scenario
^^^^this guy is wide awake...it would do you some good to sit up and take notice.
^^^^this guy is wide awake...it would do you some good to sit up and take notice.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
<span style="color: #3333FF">And the omnipresent thought of all of us in the fodder class needs to be how the f*ck is it that we just went through 2008, Dodd / Frank comes out - and it is more if the same bullshit? These same shitbags are allowed to have tremendous sway of the rules that will regulate them? How is it that we are allowing QE to continue? When will people around the world figure out the great fraud and further realize that the 'debt' is not the debt of the people, and finally then realize they have been enslaved by those 'out of the fodder class'. I personally want see heads on pikes, not of sacrificial lambs, but of the REAL power elite.</span></div></div>
Good luck [/quote]
The answer, as I'm sure you know is simple - distraction and consumption. Look at our stock market. It's over 75% institutionally owned and in turn massively dominated by pension and investment funds who INSIST on quarterly returns to be year on year growing.. why? Because they have liabilities to meet that are ever growing and so need the returns.
So what? So firms who have raised capital in the equity markets and don't want their shares to tank need to grow like a nineteen year on steroids. That's why products don't last, why the focus is cost, margin and not quality, why China and Vietnam and other countries that have no overheads such as labour laws, regulation on pollutions or any other aspect of a civilized society can produce in massive volume at half the price the things that used to last years which now last months or at least need 'customer service'...
Furthermore, the consumption society is a necessity. Look at the people who are held up as role models - people who are have 'stuff' and who are rich. Nothing is ever said about the character of these people just that they have stuff. They have it, so should you and if you don't want 'stuff' then there's something wrong with you because all your neighbours do... There's nothing wrong with material accumulation but when slowly the sole act of accumulation is accoladed as a virture then the host has been taken over by the disease IMHO.
Everything that I see around me is pointed in the direction of 'want more...stuff' and it's because the machine needs to be fed through consumption and you don't consume when you're distracted by thought and awareness. The schools, the media, the quality of news - it's all geared to avoid fundamental distraction. We are spoon fed scandal, titillation and 'harmless' news but anything substantive is avoided. The Presidential debates were joke, nothing was mentioned of any worth and the piece that got the most cover was a joke - literally (horses and bayonets).
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Your one and overriding thought should be this... "how can I get out of the fodder class...?"
<span style="color: #3333FF">And the omnipresent thought of all of us in the fodder class needs to be how the f*ck is it that we just went through 2008, Dodd / Frank comes out - and it is more if the same bullshit? These same shitbags are allowed to have tremendous sway of the rules that will regulate them? How is it that we are allowing QE to continue? When will people around the world figure out the great fraud and further realize that the 'debt' is not the debt of the people, and finally then realize they have been enslaved by those 'out of the fodder class'. I personally want see heads on pikes, not of sacrificial lambs, but of the REAL power elite.</span></div></div>
Good luck [/quote]
The answer, as I'm sure you know is simple - distraction and consumption. Look at our stock market. It's over 75% institutionally owned and in turn massively dominated by pension and investment funds who INSIST on quarterly returns to be year on year growing.. why? Because they have liabilities to meet that are ever growing and so need the returns.
So what? So firms who have raised capital in the equity markets and don't want their shares to tank need to grow like a nineteen year on steroids. That's why products don't last, why the focus is cost, margin and not quality, why China and Vietnam and other countries that have no overheads such as labour laws, regulation on pollutions or any other aspect of a civilized society can produce in massive volume at half the price the things that used to last years which now last months or at least need 'customer service'...
Furthermore, the consumption society is a necessity. Look at the people who are held up as role models - people who are have 'stuff' and who are rich. Nothing is ever said about the character of these people just that they have stuff. They have it, so should you and if you don't want 'stuff' then there's something wrong with you because all your neighbours do... There's nothing wrong with material accumulation but when slowly the sole act of accumulation is accoladed as a virture then the host has been taken over by the disease IMHO.
Everything that I see around me is pointed in the direction of 'want more...stuff' and it's because the machine needs to be fed through consumption and you don't consume when you're distracted by thought and awareness. The schools, the media, the quality of news - it's all geared to avoid fundamental distraction. We are spoon fed scandal, titillation and 'harmless' news but anything substantive is avoided. The Presidential debates were joke, nothing was mentioned of any worth and the piece that got the most cover was a joke - literally (horses and bayonets).
Re: Economic collapse scenario
reading this makes me depressed.
WHAT I SEE! my own observation.
I see a huge difference in the attitude of younger and middle aged Americans. They simply don't want to actually work! for some odd reason they all want good office jobs that pay good money for minimal work with all the benefits..
there are jobs out there but they require WORK! and there are quite a few people that are willing to do those jobs only they are from Mexico, Russia, Guatemala , and all sorts of other country's. I'm not saying it will fix the problems but if the younger generation would get off there fat asses thing may be a bit better.
Also as a small business. Owner in a small state in an even smaller town. I see that we are literally. Being taxed and regulated out of business.they want the unemployment rate to go down but they don't make it possible to add employees.
here is a small glimpse at what i see this is a letter sent to a friend of mine in California. It says a lot
"October 24, 2012
Dear __________ Customer:
After much consideration the decision has been made to immediately cease ceramic production at our Fontana, California factory. Increasing raw material, labor, tax, and regulatory costs make it impossible to profitably manufacture our ceramic tile in the State of California.
To dispel any possible rumors, __________ as a company is NOT facing financial hardships. We are a profitable well managed company. This factory closure is based on continuing losses in the manufacturing portion of ______business without a probable return to profitability in sight.
Please note, we have two import ceramic lines in production for release during the next several months and expect to have two more by mid 2013. We will continue on this path to invest in new sought-after proprietary series that add value to both your and our respective companies."
I think they were among the last California tile makers to hold out, I've seen a couple large factories in that State for sale, one had $12 million in sales just a few years ago, today they are doing less than $2 million and you could probably pick the whole place up for what a new CNC costs. Of course if your manufacturing costs are $10 a square foot nad climbing, how much tile are you going to sell no matter how cool it looks?
I think it's amazing they aren't even waiting until the election is over, they don't see a profitable future no matter who wins.
reading this makes me depressed.
WHAT I SEE! my own observation.
I see a huge difference in the attitude of younger and middle aged Americans. They simply don't want to actually work! for some odd reason they all want good office jobs that pay good money for minimal work with all the benefits..
there are jobs out there but they require WORK! and there are quite a few people that are willing to do those jobs only they are from Mexico, Russia, Guatemala , and all sorts of other country's. I'm not saying it will fix the problems but if the younger generation would get off there fat asses thing may be a bit better.
Also as a small business. Owner in a small state in an even smaller town. I see that we are literally. Being taxed and regulated out of business.they want the unemployment rate to go down but they don't make it possible to add employees.
here is a small glimpse at what i see this is a letter sent to a friend of mine in California. It says a lot
"October 24, 2012
Dear __________ Customer:
After much consideration the decision has been made to immediately cease ceramic production at our Fontana, California factory. Increasing raw material, labor, tax, and regulatory costs make it impossible to profitably manufacture our ceramic tile in the State of California.
To dispel any possible rumors, __________ as a company is NOT facing financial hardships. We are a profitable well managed company. This factory closure is based on continuing losses in the manufacturing portion of ______business without a probable return to profitability in sight.
Please note, we have two import ceramic lines in production for release during the next several months and expect to have two more by mid 2013. We will continue on this path to invest in new sought-after proprietary series that add value to both your and our respective companies."
I think they were among the last California tile makers to hold out, I've seen a couple large factories in that State for sale, one had $12 million in sales just a few years ago, today they are doing less than $2 million and you could probably pick the whole place up for what a new CNC costs. Of course if your manufacturing costs are $10 a square foot nad climbing, how much tile are you going to sell no matter how cool it looks?
I think it's amazing they aren't even waiting until the election is over, they don't see a profitable future no matter who wins.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Couple points to consider -
A) 2% GDP - let's run through the basics of the latest ponzi scheme - the FED prints money out of thin air - currently $40B per month, the FED then takes that $40B per month and buys from private banks $40B worth of mortgage backed securities. The private banks in turn buy $40B worth of Treasuries. Now the FED uses a fractional reserve of 10:1 and then pumps $400B into the market - pumping the value of stocks, suppressing the value of oil, precious metals, and bonds. If you don't believe this is really going on, please review the dailies for the S&P 500 E-mini futures index. It crash lands, positive economic data points are purposely put out in the mainstream media, the algorithm driven HFT of the big hedgefunds ramp the shit out it (V shaped) for the close - none of this is real, this is make believe to keep the scam going. It is also notable that the SEC is not investigating it.
2% real growth? No chance. Also, historically coming out of a recession we have averaged more like 7% GDP increases.
B) Confidence in the USD - firstly, we need to parse the subject. Confidence by whom and in what context? If we are talking about the US Consumer (71% of our GDP) look at the current monetary policy - there is no incentive to save right now - interest coupled with inflation = negative rate of savings - right? Monetary policy is doing everything it can to force people to play the rigged game known as Wall Street. Yet everyone knows, the current crisis is not one of credit - it is one of solvency.
With respect to 'consumer confidence' - that is a squishy subject that is easily manipulated by pollsters that start with a conclusion and design a means to show it. There really isn't an econometric to show how people "feel", thus it all gets back to who were talking to. If we go to Washington DC where unemployment is low and wages are up, and talk to Sally SoccerMom at Starbucks - she probably thinks things are on the upswing. Head out to Crook Co. OR with a U1 of 14.6% - things ain't so rosy.
However, when we talk about confidence in the USD as a WRC - different story, esp if you parse out the intervention / collusion on the part of the FED to pump the US Econ - several countries are currently signing contracts to trade for goods in currencies other than USDs. With respect to China - as I have posted before, China has pursued a policy of divesting from USDs and buying gold. News flash - China is no longer our biggest creditor. It's Japan. Yeah, the same dudes that started doing QE in the '90s and are up to QE900 now - they are hopelessly f*cked. However, they buy our shitty paper...may have a little something to do with needing to rely on us for defense and not having a lot of friends in their own hood...or it could just be that they are so naive that they don't think we'd f*ck them over in a heartbeat.
C) On turning our attentions to a shorter focus, and one's ability to decipher the global implications... in the short run I agree - start thinking about how you're going to need to feed, cloth, keep moving forward - starting with you personally, your family, your friends, your community...state...region..nation. Within that though - it is imperative to understand how we got here in the first place, so when the next charlatan proposes that we must move to a same but different (inherently flawed) system to save ourselves - we can intelligently resist.
Good luck</div></div>
Spot on. Just more than I felt like typing...
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mo_Zam_Beek</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Couple points to consider -
A) 2% GDP - let's run through the basics of the latest ponzi scheme - the FED prints money out of thin air - currently $40B per month, the FED then takes that $40B per month and buys from private banks $40B worth of mortgage backed securities. The private banks in turn buy $40B worth of Treasuries. Now the FED uses a fractional reserve of 10:1 and then pumps $400B into the market - pumping the value of stocks, suppressing the value of oil, precious metals, and bonds. If you don't believe this is really going on, please review the dailies for the S&P 500 E-mini futures index. It crash lands, positive economic data points are purposely put out in the mainstream media, the algorithm driven HFT of the big hedgefunds ramp the shit out it (V shaped) for the close - none of this is real, this is make believe to keep the scam going. It is also notable that the SEC is not investigating it.
2% real growth? No chance. Also, historically coming out of a recession we have averaged more like 7% GDP increases.
B) Confidence in the USD - firstly, we need to parse the subject. Confidence by whom and in what context? If we are talking about the US Consumer (71% of our GDP) look at the current monetary policy - there is no incentive to save right now - interest coupled with inflation = negative rate of savings - right? Monetary policy is doing everything it can to force people to play the rigged game known as Wall Street. Yet everyone knows, the current crisis is not one of credit - it is one of solvency.
With respect to 'consumer confidence' - that is a squishy subject that is easily manipulated by pollsters that start with a conclusion and design a means to show it. There really isn't an econometric to show how people "feel", thus it all gets back to who were talking to. If we go to Washington DC where unemployment is low and wages are up, and talk to Sally SoccerMom at Starbucks - she probably thinks things are on the upswing. Head out to Crook Co. OR with a U1 of 14.6% - things ain't so rosy.
However, when we talk about confidence in the USD as a WRC - different story, esp if you parse out the intervention / collusion on the part of the FED to pump the US Econ - several countries are currently signing contracts to trade for goods in currencies other than USDs. With respect to China - as I have posted before, China has pursued a policy of divesting from USDs and buying gold. News flash - China is no longer our biggest creditor. It's Japan. Yeah, the same dudes that started doing QE in the '90s and are up to QE900 now - they are hopelessly f*cked. However, they buy our shitty paper...may have a little something to do with needing to rely on us for defense and not having a lot of friends in their own hood...or it could just be that they are so naive that they don't think we'd f*ck them over in a heartbeat.
C) On turning our attentions to a shorter focus, and one's ability to decipher the global implications... in the short run I agree - start thinking about how you're going to need to feed, cloth, keep moving forward - starting with you personally, your family, your friends, your community...state...region..nation. Within that though - it is imperative to understand how we got here in the first place, so when the next charlatan proposes that we must move to a same but different (inherently flawed) system to save ourselves - we can intelligently resist.
Good luck</div></div>
Spot on. Just more than I felt like typing...
Re: Economic collapse scenario
EH - 100% and well said.
Good luck
EH - 100% and well said.
Good luck
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Right now essentially the people that buy treasury bonds from us are pretty much paying the government to hold their money as the interest rates are less than the rate of inflation.
If people suddently started demanding at least a little bit more than the rate of inflation or even barely normal rates like in the 3% to 4% range our budget would be blown right out of the water.
Right now essentially the people that buy treasury bonds from us are pretty much paying the government to hold their money as the interest rates are less than the rate of inflation.
If people suddently started demanding at least a little bit more than the rate of inflation or even barely normal rates like in the 3% to 4% range our budget would be blown right out of the water.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
W54 - you are spot regarding a change in the cost of funds (cough finaningthescam).
However, in the short term, that categorically can not happen. Between the ramping I discussed earlier, the alternatives, and the fact that we are buying at least 61% of our own debt in order to manipulate rates - the US will continue to live off a credit card.
It is an ugly paradigm and there isn't a good way out of it. I encourage all to become informed.
Good luck
W54 - you are spot regarding a change in the cost of funds (cough finaningthescam).
However, in the short term, that categorically can not happen. Between the ramping I discussed earlier, the alternatives, and the fact that we are buying at least 61% of our own debt in order to manipulate rates - the US will continue to live off a credit card.
It is an ugly paradigm and there isn't a good way out of it. I encourage all to become informed.
Good luck
Re: Economic collapse scenario
great discussion.
So what would be the worse case scenario? We all know that taxes will rise because government does not know how to cut back or be sensible. I imagine this will happen at the federal, state, and municipal levels. Will people be able to afford taxes? What if they can't, will their properties be confiscated and sold to the highest bidder? At that time only the bankers will have money to buy up properties pennies on the dollar. Rents would have to go up to cover the cost of taxes. Will the government have another confiscation of precious metals because they they are corrupt anyway. It can get ugly. What happens next?
great discussion.
So what would be the worse case scenario? We all know that taxes will rise because government does not know how to cut back or be sensible. I imagine this will happen at the federal, state, and municipal levels. Will people be able to afford taxes? What if they can't, will their properties be confiscated and sold to the highest bidder? At that time only the bankers will have money to buy up properties pennies on the dollar. Rents would have to go up to cover the cost of taxes. Will the government have another confiscation of precious metals because they they are corrupt anyway. It can get ugly. What happens next?
Re: Economic collapse scenario
There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede.
There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede. </div></div>
I really wish everyone in our country would read and comprehend the importance of what you just said.
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede. </div></div>
I really wish everyone in our country would read and comprehend the importance of what you just said.
Re: Economic collapse scenario
Worst case:
Depends who are you? Elite? Middle class?Poor?Healthy?Capable?Inept?
For those who cherish freedom (in traditional sense and not this illusion of freedom we get inside consumerism and new age politics/ethics/religion) worst case would be Orwellian state with dictate and rule for everything (what you eat, when you eat, what you do, how yo do it etc...) with people being mindless zombies waiting for masters handout...
For elites the spread of truth and crumbling of their plans to run the planet as they see fit (see worst case 1...
For consumer, inept and numbed down MadMax chaos which (will) would ensue when people with guts and knowledge (will) would face global tyrants...
Various mild sub options of the main three of course are also in the books but generally speaking not a lot of variety in this dish we're all cooking (or are being cooked in -> depends on perspective).
Worst case:
Depends who are you? Elite? Middle class?Poor?Healthy?Capable?Inept?
For those who cherish freedom (in traditional sense and not this illusion of freedom we get inside consumerism and new age politics/ethics/religion) worst case would be Orwellian state with dictate and rule for everything (what you eat, when you eat, what you do, how yo do it etc...) with people being mindless zombies waiting for masters handout...
For elites the spread of truth and crumbling of their plans to run the planet as they see fit (see worst case 1...
For consumer, inept and numbed down MadMax chaos which (will) would ensue when people with guts and knowledge (will) would face global tyrants...
Various mild sub options of the main three of course are also in the books but generally speaking not a lot of variety in this dish we're all cooking (or are being cooked in -> depends on perspective).
Re: Economic collapse scenario
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede. </div></div>
There are some great points in here but I will offer a couple of complementary and contrasting thoughts:
A) Take a look at wages since @ 1970 and contrast those against purchasing power / cost of goods and services / inflation. In other words, look at the net present value of earnings, then and now. The picture that becomes clear is that wages have been effectively held flat for decades. However, consumer credit has been expanded in exponential terms. Thus the public has been satiated in that they feel like they are making progress - they have 'stuff / toys' - that they have financed the shit out of.
Going back to monetary policy (dovetailed with financing strategy from the banks, marketing strategy from retailers, and the media) review the effect on the historic rate of savings in the US. Take 15 seconds and think about the consumerism and corresponding social changes when the rate fell below @7% YOY. Is it a coincidence that around the same time we really started to outsource our manufacturing sector? Again, economics is a predictable framework that when combined with policy and force can be used to shape a society.
B) Wicked old men sitting around in a circle - the primary difference between the wealthy and the rest of us is that the wealthy don't eat off their seed corn. They have accumulated a sum of money that is then invested and the return off the investment provides for (at minimum) all of their living expenses. That return is also taxed at a much lower rate - 15% on qualifying dividends.
Secondly, EVERY community has at least one group that routinely meets out of the public view to discuss what would be best for the community. Those with influence (read - wealth) have a seat at the table and that influence finds its way into policy. While I agree there likely isn't 'one' group responsible for all, there is no question that there are a variety of groups that hold tremendous sway over policy. Such groups include PACS, the CFR, Billderberg, and many others. All of which have overlapping and interlocking membership. To say the least - it isn't by accident.
Good luck
ETA regarding the 'fodder class' - the primary problem with allowing those with the gold to make the rules is that most of them have a broken moral compass and the consequences are paid by the rest of us. The Horatio Alger story is largely a myth today. Sure there are exceptions, however if one really starts with nothing - unless they run a 4.4 40 and weigh 230# with great hands - they will likely live through, and die of a life with nothing as well.
I have seen several studies that detail one's odds of moving up in economic status by generation. To say the least, if you fall off by a rev, your offsprings's odds of catching back up or exceeding that lost rev are very slim. Contrasted against the generationally advantaged wealthy, where the momentum of never having to touch the seed corn and always being included at the decision making table creates a completely different inertia. Those are long odds against most of us.
What we are watching play out right now - that the fodder class will ultimately be responsible for - is startling. Do yourselves a favor and research just three related policy changes - Community Reinvestment Act, the repeal of Glass Steagall, TARP -> QE. Ask yourself who really benefited? Who will pay the price?
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: EventHorizon</div><div class="ubbcode-body">There isn't a worse case scenario because every crisis leads to a welcomed 'solution' that leaves us a little worse than we were before yet we are told to feel better.
Does anyone think the Patriot Act was the best response to 9/11? Does anyone feel we're back to enjoying the full liberties we had before then?
Taxes and such are a red herring pushed by campaigners because the electorate feel their wallets more than they do their sense of social liberty. In the questions posed to the candidates nothing touched on civil liberties. Nothing about who will reverse or dilute the presidential statements W made or deconstruct Patriot. We're all ga ga over Obamacare but no one even bothers with the laws that are in place that can be used by the Govt against against civilians here on home soil. It's like not being safe in your own home but all you're worried about is getting more pocket money.
I don't believe there's a grand council of wicked old men planning this. It's human nature when placed at the helm of nearly unquestioned power. People are weak. Get out of the fodder class because even if you're one of the cows who looks up, if you're still in the herd then you'll only get crushed in the stampede. </div></div>
There are some great points in here but I will offer a couple of complementary and contrasting thoughts:
A) Take a look at wages since @ 1970 and contrast those against purchasing power / cost of goods and services / inflation. In other words, look at the net present value of earnings, then and now. The picture that becomes clear is that wages have been effectively held flat for decades. However, consumer credit has been expanded in exponential terms. Thus the public has been satiated in that they feel like they are making progress - they have 'stuff / toys' - that they have financed the shit out of.
Going back to monetary policy (dovetailed with financing strategy from the banks, marketing strategy from retailers, and the media) review the effect on the historic rate of savings in the US. Take 15 seconds and think about the consumerism and corresponding social changes when the rate fell below @7% YOY. Is it a coincidence that around the same time we really started to outsource our manufacturing sector? Again, economics is a predictable framework that when combined with policy and force can be used to shape a society.
B) Wicked old men sitting around in a circle - the primary difference between the wealthy and the rest of us is that the wealthy don't eat off their seed corn. They have accumulated a sum of money that is then invested and the return off the investment provides for (at minimum) all of their living expenses. That return is also taxed at a much lower rate - 15% on qualifying dividends.
Secondly, EVERY community has at least one group that routinely meets out of the public view to discuss what would be best for the community. Those with influence (read - wealth) have a seat at the table and that influence finds its way into policy. While I agree there likely isn't 'one' group responsible for all, there is no question that there are a variety of groups that hold tremendous sway over policy. Such groups include PACS, the CFR, Billderberg, and many others. All of which have overlapping and interlocking membership. To say the least - it isn't by accident.
Good luck
ETA regarding the 'fodder class' - the primary problem with allowing those with the gold to make the rules is that most of them have a broken moral compass and the consequences are paid by the rest of us. The Horatio Alger story is largely a myth today. Sure there are exceptions, however if one really starts with nothing - unless they run a 4.4 40 and weigh 230# with great hands - they will likely live through, and die of a life with nothing as well.
I have seen several studies that detail one's odds of moving up in economic status by generation. To say the least, if you fall off by a rev, your offsprings's odds of catching back up or exceeding that lost rev are very slim. Contrasted against the generationally advantaged wealthy, where the momentum of never having to touch the seed corn and always being included at the decision making table creates a completely different inertia. Those are long odds against most of us.
What we are watching play out right now - that the fodder class will ultimately be responsible for - is startling. Do yourselves a favor and research just three related policy changes - Community Reinvestment Act, the repeal of Glass Steagall, TARP -> QE. Ask yourself who really benefited? Who will pay the price?
Re: Economic collapse scenario
I agree with this regarding the 'local' rich and seed corn. In fact, it's my exit from the fodder class. If all goes ok over the next 3 years I'll be clear. Not enough to influence but enough to be out of the herd.
From there it's about the generational issue. I have a few close friends I'll do anything for to get them out as well. I just wish I'd realized the way of things earlier!
Mo, if you have any other links/references/blogs etc to recommend I'm all ears.
Cheers
I agree with this regarding the 'local' rich and seed corn. In fact, it's my exit from the fodder class. If all goes ok over the next 3 years I'll be clear. Not enough to influence but enough to be out of the herd.
From there it's about the generational issue. I have a few close friends I'll do anything for to get them out as well. I just wish I'd realized the way of things earlier!
Mo, if you have any other links/references/blogs etc to recommend I'm all ears.
Cheers
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