China prepping for war footing?

#3
I thought it was interesting that they just relaxed their one child policy…

That has a number of effects from being wildly popular to the people to creating an environment where the loss of a son allows for… replacements.

My first thought when I read that was “that is a wartime nation move.”

Attacking India, though? India will go Nuke on them in a second.

That will be TV worth watching.

Sirhr

PS I have a hard time believing that any of their pretty western-knockoff weapons systems are worth a shit. That said, they have a lot of them. Quantity has a quality all its own, as Stalin once said.
 
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#4
I just read that article. What stood out to me was the attempt to become immune to sanctions, which have been used frequently in recent history by the west as a non-military response to actions we don’t like.
 
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#5
MCSO1357 said:
I just read that article. What stood out to me was the attempt to become immune to sanctions, which have been used frequently in recent history by the west as a non-military response to actions we don’t like.
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China went through decades… 1949 to 1989 as a walled-off nation and economy.

Probably be harder now, but the ChiCom government would not have any qualms about killing another 100 million of their own. Thanks to Google contracts, they probably even know which 100 million will go first.

Never underestimate the actions of a totalitarian state that sees a threat to its existence. Ask Galtieri. Or Nassar. Or Mussolini…

Sanctions proofing is an interesting 21st century gambit… very interesting, in fact.

But the reality is that the leadership of CCP, esp President for Life Xi… probably doesn’t care. Of course, everyone saw this coming the minute Xi had himself made President for life… didn’t they? Didn’t they?

Sirhr
 
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#6
I'm curious if the quality of their war tech is higher quality than the crap they ship to us on Amazon.

They clearly have manufacturing capability. They reverse engineer everything.

The greatest advantage Russia & China have is consistent leadership (same people in charge for long periods).

We are like a seesaw, swapping positions from one end to the other every 4-8 years.
 
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#7
pineoak said:
I'm curious if the quality of their war tech is higher quality than the crap they ship to us on Amazon.

They clearly have manufacturing capability. They reverse engineer everything.

The greatest advantage Russia & China have is consistent leadership (same people in charge for long periods).

We are like a seesaw, swapping positions from one end to the other every 4-8 years.
Click to expand...
Yes, but being unpredictable is also a strength…

They can’t predict how we will act.

Nixon used that really well.

Sirhr
 
#8
The Chineese leaders do keep their eyes on the prize. This makes them dangerous. But even going back a thousand years I can't find an example of China winning a war against a major power. So betting on China is kind like betting on the Browns or the Lions to win the Super Bowl.
 
#9
sirhrmechanic said:
Yes, but being unpredictable is also a strength…

They can’t predict how we will act.

Nixon used that really well.

Sirhr
Click to expand...
I disagree. They own U.S. President Biden. They've been embedded into our universities and corporations for decades.

The know exactly how we think, what our limits are, and how to manipulate the levers of power in our country.

Isn't there another thread on this forum about how Chinese companies were instrumental in the 2020 election results?

Never think China isn't at war with us. Just because they're smiling and dropping off Amazon packages doesn't mean they aren't actively positioning for a hostile end goal.

As far as India nuking China... neither will do so. Both have too much to lose.

Between those two countries alone, they will resort to pre-gunpowder melee weapons only and just beat the life out of each other using bats and sticks with nails sticking out of them. Same way they resolve (or don't resolve) border disputes.

Like 2 neighbors that own AR15s... you settle it with your fists knocking over the grill and lemonade pitcher... too much to lose going to the "nuclear" option.

Just speculation on my part.
 
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#10
welcome_to_the_jc27bb.0.jpg
 
#11
pineoak said:
I disagree. They own U.S. President Biden. They've been embedded into our universities and corporations for decades.

The know exactly how we think, what our limits are, and how to manipulate the levers of power in our country.

Isn't there another thread on this forum about how Chinese companies were instrumental in the 2020 election results?

Never think China isn't at war with us. Just because they're smiling and dropping off Amazon packages doesn't mean they aren't actively positioning for a hostile end goal.

As far as India nuking China... neither will do so. Both have too much to lose.

Between those two countries alone, they will resort to pre-gunpowder melee weapons only and just beat the life out of each other using bats and sticks with nails sticking out of them. Same way they resolve (or don't resolve) border disputes.

Like 2 neighbors that own AR15s... you settle it with your fists knocking over the grill and lemonade pitcher... too much to lose going to the "nuclear" option.

Just speculation on my part.
Click to expand...
They may own Xiden and some of the levers of power today... but they though they were in the catbird seat in 2016. And we were unpredictable. November is going to be a nightmare for China if the 'red wave' materializes.

That means two things... one they will have to retrench and keep fighting a cold economic war with us (on that I agree with you 100 percent) and continue to play a long game of eroding our institutions and generations of young people to the point that we are simply an empty shell. We aren't yet. But unless the pendulum continues its swing back to somekind of normalcy... we will be.

Door number 2 is that they have about 4 months to meet their goals militarily while we are in too much turmoil to do anything about it. And you never know, Xiden may welcome the opportunity to use War Emergency to do all kinds of fun things. Well, not Xiden. He poops his pants. But the people around him and running him who are idealogues and love the CCP, but are not simply bought and paid for.

As for the India/China 'theater' if it plays out... Don't under-estimate the desperation of the Chinese Leadership. Kinetic action now is a throw of the dice and if they lose or, more likely, don't win, then the Xi cabal will do anything to keep from being tried as traitors to the party and the people. IMHO, China is on a razors edge of control vs. people with enough information and exposure to the outside world that it is a bit like East Germany, Poland, Hungary, etc. in the late 1980's. It won't take much to bring the whole thing down. But it won't be external forces, it will be internal forces. How many of your people can you kill, intern and intimidate before the rest no longer fear the consequences? It's an interesting question, right? Mao killed off 100 million + and had stated that the would be ok with killing off 300 million if it made his Utopian vision a reality. But he went nuts before he could go completely genocidal. Just mostly genocidal.

What is the current Xi willing to do to ensure his power and legacy? How much cannon fodder is he willing to expend? How much are those around him willing to let him get away with?

So many interesting scenarios.... but at the heart of things, the CCP does not know how we are going to react. And there is strength in that.

We underestimate and don't understand Asian culture. But Asian culture also has a hard time understanding American culture. Just ask Hirohito who thought that a surprise attack with minutes of diplomatic warning (Diplomats were late) on our Harbor would force Roosevelt to negotiate? And that the American people would go along with that? No, cultural mis-understandings are a double edged sword. And it's hard to understand a people so unpredictable that we, ourselves, don't know what we're going to do next. It's one of the benefits of Freedom! And the curses.

Good discussion, though.

Cheers,

Sirhr

PS. Wonder what Pakistan would get up to on India's Western Border if the Chinese started sucking resources off to the East. Kashmir? Have we seen China and Pakistan cozying up? Not sure India is able to do a two front war without going all Nuke... But I agree with you that the nuclear option is just that. Unlikely. Until it's not.
 
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#12
Pakistan is so much smaller than India, I doubt they would ever be a true threat. Intentions, yes. Capability, meh.

If you flowchart the possibilities of US actions, there really aren't THAT many. The biggest unknown is TRUMP.

He is the definition of unpredictable.

Except for the certainty that he will bring peace, economic prosperity, and employment for all.

Kinda the opposite of what we have now.
 
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#13
Trump for sure. But it's more than him. At this point it is his movement.

If the trend continues through the election, he will be the leader, real or theoretical, of more than half of a strong majority of the house and senate. His 'endorsements' and acolytes are also unpredictable. Except for one thing they are predictable on... which is they will put America First. And that means putting the screws to China, our number one global enemy. That noone wants to admit.

Putin is a joke. A dottering old thug trying to relive his glory days as a KGB Colonel or whatever he was. (It's always the Colonels!).

China is, IMHO, far less of a threat militarily than they are economically. We have managed to outsource virtually every critical manufacturing process, mineral resource and even global relationship... to China. What would happen to us is a "Sanction-proof" China came up with a good excuse to put sanctions on the USA? Whose economy falls apart first? Ours when we can't get anything for our factories, stores, homes, supply chain, etc?

Or China's which can button down, put everyone on starvation rations and wait it out? Or use their global clout, threats and money (our money) to buy what they need. While at the same time both denying it to us and getting 'allied' nations (or those under duress) to support their sanctions on the USA?

How long to rebuild an American steel industry? Chip industry? Lumber industry? Electronics Industry? Heavy industry? Car Parts? Energy? Decades?

China wouldn't have to fire a shot. They'd just have to accept that their own economy would crash slower and potentially rebound faster... than ours. It's a bit like Herman Kahn's nuclear theories of first strike and surviving retaliatory strike. Whose system bounces back the fastest? But instead of warheads, we are talking container ships and dollars.

I am willing to bet that there is a building full of Chinese strategists who are playing out these and thousands of other scenarios all the time. And right now I bet most of the scenarios come up with a winning hand for the ChiCom's. Problem is, the "winning hand" will likely be Aces over Eights!

Cheers,

Sirhr
 
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#16
I wonder if things got bad, China would activate all their sleeper agents in our corporations, government and military.

How many are comprised? Seems like more and more every day.
 
#23
Sean the Nailer said:
Interesting that you would say this, on 'this' type of site with 'this' type of crowd.

Clarify if you would please, is your comment directed to the 'thread content (china)' or the post previous to yours 'Trump '24'?
Click to expand...
If I had been referring to the post above, below or other, I would have quoted it. I was referring to the opening post that's what we do on "a site like this with this type of crowd"
 
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#24
Have to add into this calculation that the work knows that our military has mandated COVID clot shots as well as approximately 40% of our population. Our capabilities have been weakened substantially.
 
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#25
pineoak said:
Pakistan is so much smaller than India, I doubt they would ever be a true threat. Intentions, yes. Capability, meh.

If you flowchart the possibilities of US actions, there really aren't THAT many. The biggest unknown is TRUMP.

He is the definition of unpredictable.

Except for the certainty that he will bring peace, economic prosperity, and employment for all.

Kinda the opposite of what we have now.
Click to expand...
Pakistan has nukes and a delivery system.

Pakistan is close to becoming a Taliban controlled country.

Thanks Brandon.
 
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#26
sirhrmechanic said:
Trump for sure. But it's more than him. At this point it is his movement.

If the trend continues through the election, he will be the leader, real or theoretical, of more than half of a strong majority of the house and senate. His 'endorsements' and acolytes are also unpredictable. Except for one thing they are predictable on... which is they will put America First. And that means putting the screws to China, our number one global enemy. That noone wants to admit.

Putin is a joke. A dottering old thug trying to relive his glory days as a KGB Colonel or whatever he was. (It's always the Colonels!).

China is, IMHO, far less of a threat militarily than they are economically. We have managed to outsource virtually every critical manufacturing process, mineral resource and even global relationship... to China. What would happen to us is a "Sanction-proof" China came up with a good excuse to put sanctions on the USA? Whose economy falls apart first? Ours when we can't get anything for our factories, stores, homes, supply chain, etc?

Or China's which can button down, put everyone on starvation rations and wait it out? Or use their global clout, threats and money (our money) to buy what they need. While at the same time both denying it to us and getting 'allied' nations (or those under duress) to support their sanctions on the USA?

How long to rebuild an American steel industry? Chip industry? Lumber industry? Electronics Industry? Heavy industry? Car Parts? Energy? Decades?

China wouldn't have to fire a shot. They'd just have to accept that their own economy would crash slower and potentially rebound faster... than ours. It's a bit like Herman Kahn's nuclear theories of first strike and surviving retaliatory strike. Whose system bounces back the fastest? But instead of warheads, we are talking container ships and dollars.

I am willing to bet that there is a building full of Chinese strategists who are playing out these and thousands of other scenarios all the time. And right now I bet most of the scenarios come up with a winning hand for the ChiCom's. Problem is, the "winning hand" will likely be Aces over Eights!

Cheers,

Sirhr
Click to expand...
Our current republicans are working against any of that happening….all of them.
 
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#29
sirhrmechanic said:
How long to rebuild an American steel industry? Chip industry? Lumber industry? Electronics Industry? Heavy industry? Car Parts? Energy? Decades?

China wouldn't have to fire a shot.
Click to expand...
This scenario reminds of the old saying “Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.” Now I don’t have a command of history as you do however this to me is similar to the Embargo Act of 1941.

The US cut off Japan to oil and steel which they immediately recognized as a threat and a big problem so they attacked the US preemptively at Pearl Harbor hoping we would cave or surrender.

In the current scenario comparing it back to 1941, I feel as China is the US of 1941 with control of resources we deem critical such as CPU’s/medical supplies (antibiotics)/steel etc and the US is similar to Japan of 1941.

If I remember correctly 75% of the worlds CPU’s/chips are produced in Taiwan and the US gets over 70% of its antibiotics from China?

Heck just the antibiotics alone is a huge problem. How can you go to war with troops and no antibiotics to treat casualties in the field?

If China just cut us off from just those resources alone it would be a major problem for our country and could easily ignite a conflict.
 
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#30
These last few years of covid bullshit would have been a perfect time for companies to start producing these hard to get products here in the good ole USA again, i.e. microchips, antibiotics, etc.

It boggles my mind why we allowed ourselves to become so dependent on other countries when we (used to) have the capability to be self sufficient.

WWII vets have gotta be spinning in their graves.
 
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#31
sirhrmechanic said:
Trump for sure. But it's more than him. At this point it is his movement.

If the trend continues through the election, he will be the leader, real or theoretical, of more than half of a strong majority of the house and senate. His 'endorsements' and acolytes are also unpredictable. Except for one thing they are predictable on... which is they will put America First. And that means putting the screws to China, our number one global enemy. That noone wants to admit.

Putin is a joke. A dottering old thug trying to relive his glory days as a KGB Colonel or whatever he was. (It's always the Colonels!).

China is, IMHO, far less of a threat militarily than they are economically. We have managed to outsource virtually every critical manufacturing process, mineral resource and even global relationship... to China. What would happen to us is a "Sanction-proof" China came up with a good excuse to put sanctions on the USA? Whose economy falls apart first? Ours when we can't get anything for our factories, stores, homes, supply chain, etc?

Or China's which can button down, put everyone on starvation rations and wait it out? Or use their global clout, threats and money (our money) to buy what they need. While at the same time both denying it to us and getting 'allied' nations (or those under duress) to support their sanctions on the USA?

How long to rebuild an American steel industry? Chip industry? Lumber industry? Electronics Industry? Heavy industry? Car Parts? Energy? Decades?

China wouldn't have to fire a shot. They'd just have to accept that their own economy would crash slower and potentially rebound faster... than ours. It's a bit like Herman Kahn's nuclear theories of first strike and surviving retaliatory strike. Whose system bounces back the fastest? But instead of warheads, we are talking container ships and dollars.

I am willing to bet that there is a building full of Chinese strategists who are playing out these and thousands of other scenarios all the time. And right now I bet most of the scenarios come up with a winning hand for the ChiCom's. Problem is, the "winning hand" will likely be Aces over Eights!

Cheers,

Sirhr
Click to expand...
China expends vast amounts on controlling its own population and that alone is a 'front' which in a war would split their resources. Much of china is within spitting distance of starvation. China also suffers from being universally hated by its economic partners and allies, in a war it would not be able to count on anyone coming to its aid or siding against the West. What shortfall the US would experience in production would be addressed with closer trade with Europe and manufacturing creation in the Americas (is my guess), but I'm not sure on timelines.

The nuclear weapons of today are not bombs, but resources and supply-chain management. The most strategically important capability we could aim for is sustainable self-resourcing. China for decades sacrificed its environment for production, now they have waters, air and living conditions that are poisonous. If we can manage our economy and culture towards greater sustainability and command/control of the supply chain, we can take an economic war to China that it won't want to fight as it would make for a lot of hungry peasants who will fuck around and not be scared to find out.
 
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#32
JoshPutman said:
These last few years of covid bullshit would have been a perfect time for companies to start producing these hard to get products here in the good ole USA again, i.e. microchips, antibiotics, etc.

It boggles my mind why we allowed ourselves to become so dependent on other countries when we (used to) have the capability to be self sufficient.

WWII vets have gotta be spinning in their graves.
Click to expand...
That's just too smart and obvious.

We no longer produce anything as a country. We function on "creditism" instead of capitalism (Rich Dad/Poor Dad reference), where we are about moving cash and money back and forth, betting on QE, bubbles, etc. Middlemanning is less effort than actually building something.

Can anyone confirm that we are currently engaging in quantitative tightening? Where instead of printing money like easing, the fed simply does not roll over bonds and cashes them out instead. Thereby taking money out of circulation.

China made it easier to rely on them for fast and cheap, their economy has grown 10x in the last 20 years from it.

Thank you again to our WWII and all vets for the sacrifices they've made for our country to stand.
 
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