I disagree. They own U.S. President Biden. They've been embedded into our universities and corporations for decades.
The know exactly how we think, what our limits are, and how to manipulate the levers of power in our country.
Isn't there another thread on this forum about how Chinese companies were instrumental in the 2020 election results?
Never think China isn't at war with us. Just because they're smiling and dropping off Amazon packages doesn't mean they aren't actively positioning for a hostile end goal.
As far as India nuking China... neither will do so. Both have too much to lose.
Between those two countries alone, they will resort to pre-gunpowder melee weapons only and just beat the life out of each other using bats and sticks with nails sticking out of them. Same way they resolve (or don't resolve) border disputes.
Like 2 neighbors that own AR15s... you settle it with your fists knocking over the grill and lemonade pitcher... too much to lose going to the "nuclear" option.
Just speculation on my part.
They may own Xiden and some of the levers of power today... but they though they were in the catbird seat in 2016. And we were unpredictable. November is going to be a nightmare for China if the 'red wave' materializes.
That means two things... one they will have to retrench and keep fighting a cold economic war with us (on that I agree with you 100 percent) and continue to play a long game of eroding our institutions and generations of young people to the point that we are simply an empty shell. We aren't yet. But unless the pendulum continues its swing back to somekind of normalcy... we will be.
Door number 2 is that they have about 4 months to meet their goals militarily while we are in too much turmoil to do anything about it. And you never know, Xiden may welcome the opportunity to use War Emergency to do all kinds of fun things. Well, not Xiden. He poops his pants. But the people around him and running him who are idealogues and love the CCP, but are not simply bought and paid for.
As for the India/China 'theater' if it plays out... Don't under-estimate the desperation of the Chinese Leadership. Kinetic action now is a throw of the dice and if they lose or, more likely, don't win, then the Xi cabal will do anything to keep from being tried as traitors to the party and the people. IMHO, China is on a razors edge of control vs. people with enough information and exposure to the outside world that it is a bit like East Germany, Poland, Hungary, etc. in the late 1980's. It won't take much to bring the whole thing down. But it won't be external forces, it will be internal forces. How many of your people can you kill, intern and intimidate before the rest no longer fear the consequences? It's an interesting question, right? Mao killed off 100 million + and had stated that the would be ok with killing off 300 million if it made his Utopian vision a reality. But he went nuts before he could go completely genocidal. Just mostly genocidal.
What is the current Xi willing to do to ensure his power and legacy? How much cannon fodder is he willing to expend? How much are those around him willing to let him get away with?
So many interesting scenarios.... but at the heart of things, the CCP does not know how we are going to react. And there is strength in that.
We underestimate and don't understand Asian culture. But Asian culture also has a hard time understanding American culture. Just ask Hirohito who thought that a surprise attack with minutes of diplomatic warning (Diplomats were late) on our Harbor would force Roosevelt to negotiate? And that the American people would go along with that? No, cultural mis-understandings are a double edged sword. And it's hard to understand a people so unpredictable that we, ourselves, don't know what we're going to do next. It's one of the benefits of Freedom! And the curses.
Good discussion, though.
Cheers,
Sirhr
PS. Wonder what Pakistan would get up to on India's Western Border if the Chinese started sucking resources off to the East. Kashmir? Have we seen China and Pakistan cozying up? Not sure India is able to do a two front war without going all Nuke... But I agree with you that the nuclear option is just that. Unlikely. Until it's not.
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