Afghanistan- Zero Option

[Mead]

My hope is that this doesn't turn political in any way, but I'd like to understand our situation in the region. Mods, if this is too political please delete.

I was reading about our plans to leave the area, retaining only a minimum of boots on the ground by 2014. My questions are:

Do we have a moral obligation to stay in the region? That is, are we hanging the Afghan people out to dry?

Should a small force remain, or should we completely pull the plug?

Finally, what are the implications of a zero option?


I can see both sides of the argument for the first question, we went in, busted some heads, but haven't (correct me if I'm wrong here) stabilized the region in a very meaningful way. On the other hand, we have spend an enormous sum of money, as well as American lives trying to help. I can't really imagine anyone saying we haven't put a lot of effort into it.

Regarding the second question, I think it might be better to completely leave instead of leaving a small contingent of troops in the area. I heard something about this that made a lot of sense. If a small group somehow kicks the hornet's nest so to say, will there be enough to deal with it? If not, what do we do then? Send in more troops? Leave when they need us most? I think the best bet would be to pull out after making sure that Afghan military forces were well enough equipped to take training into their own hands. At some point they need to take responsibility for their own security.

The last question is for those more informed than I.

Again, I'd like to know more about this from people in the know and that have experience, so if I'm off base, please, educate me.

 

[ZLBubba]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

I spent a large part of 2011 and 2012 working for State and USAID in Afghanistan. As much as I hate to admit it, I think the emerging plan is the best one for the United States. Does it leave the Afghans out to dry? Sure, but they've failed to come together nationally and overcome the ethnic tensions that exist between the Pashtuns and everyone else.

We haven't achieved the stability goals we set out for the country, partly because we pushed a governance and development agenda when we should have been looking at the local drivers of instability. Development CAN NEVER precede stabilization. It simply doesn't work, as we see time and time again (but somehow never learn). Throwing money at governments and communities incapable of managing those resources equitably only creates a new asset to fight over.

I'm sure that SOF will remain in Afghanistan in a foreign internal defense and counter-terrorism role. I don't think there's anything wrong with that since those are standard missions for SOF. It doesn't hurt to have eyes on the objective in case AQ or any other group decides to use Afghanistan as a safe haven. Still, I think those chances are small since any number of countries are more attractive as safe havens (tribal areas of Pakistan, Somalia, Mali, etc).

Do I think Afghanistan as it looks now will last in its current state? Doubtful. IMHO, Afghanistan will break down into fiefdoms ruled by the strong men with the most money and tribal influence. Ismail Khan will control the West. Tajiks will maintain the North. The east will be in conflict for a bit as the powerbrokers will have to figure out how to handle the remaining Taliban in the area. I think whomever coopts them effectively will likely win control. Gul Agha Sherzai, when he's not banging the chai boys, will likely try to maintain some income since he's become a kingpin as the Nangarhar governor and de facto ruler of Highway 7. The Southeast will be divided up by the tribes as they always have. The big question is whether HiG or Haqqani will get any piece of that pie. The South and Southwest is in the midst of significant Pashtun infighting. No one has a crystal ball so we'll see who emerges as the victor.

All in all, the outcome in Afghanistan can only be seen as a victory if we narrowly define our goals, retroactively, as destroying Al Qaeda (not the Taliban). I think we all remember listening to two different presidents promise far grander visions for Afghanistan than we achieved, but we wanted those visions more than the Afghans wanted those goals for themselves. By most indicators, Afghanistan is incredibly unstable, thus its future is not very promising.

 

[Mead]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

Awesome! Thanks for the insight.

 

[Mustafa]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

I agree that it will devolve into fiefdoms (which we are arming through the "arbaqai" system) but in the end, I think the Taliban will slowly gobble the whole place back up just like they did in the 90's. The Pakistanis will back them as they have all along and unlike us, they don't mind doing whatever it takes for their side to win. It's gonna be ugly. Sure SOF will stay there and play "whack-a-mole" with the enemy of the week, but they've been doing that for 10 years with little strategic effect (Taliban is still taking over). My best advice to any Afghan that might be reading this: Grab your most important possesions, pick a direction, start walking, don't stop untill you are no longer in Afghanistan. Khudai Pa Mon

 

[pdogsbeware]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mead</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Do we have a moral obligation to stay in the region? That is, are we hanging the Afghan people out to dry? </div></div>
I've been called many, many names by people when I say flat out, NO. Not our problem. At the last (2010) census, 46.2 million AMERICANS lived in poverty. Varying figures, but from 11,000 to 35,000 teachers were laid off here in the US last year. Sooo...we can't take care of our own progeny, but we're sending 11.5 Billion dollars a year to a country that has never done anything for us?

Is it sad, their situation? Yes. Is it our obligation to help? 1. Now you're getting into an ethics/morals debate, in which the only right answer to you is the one YOU believe in. 2. What makes us choose to help them over the other 150+/- "third world" countries?


ZLBubba gave a great summary! And as to the OPs last question...America survived before we had troops in Astan, we can manage again once we leave.

 

[dogman]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

I have been here 7.5 years total. Afghanistan is a bottomless pit. The more money we pump into this place, the more it slips out the back door. Westerners do not comprehend the mindset here (or anywhere in the middle east). Corruption and power are the way business is done here. There is no feel good option to save this place. Tribe will always trump nation. Find the strongest motherfucker here and hand it all over to him.

 

[L3IRQ]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: pdogsbeware</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mead</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Do we have a moral obligation to stay in the region? That is, are we hanging the Afghan people out to dry? </div></div>
I've been called many, many names by people when I say flat out, NO. Not our problem. At the last (2010) census, 46.2 million AMERICANS lived in poverty. Varying figures, but from 11,000 to 35,000 teachers were laid off here in the US last year. Sooo...we can't take care of our own progeny, but we're sending 11.5 Billion dollars a year to a country that has never done anything for us?

Is it sad, their situation? Yes. Is it our obligation to help? 1. Now you're getting into an ethics/morals debate, in which the only right answer to you is the one YOU believe in.<span style="font-weight: bold"> 2. What makes us choose to help them over the other 150+/- "third world" countries? </span>


ZLBubba gave a great summary! And as to the OPs last question...America survived before we had troops in Astan, we can manage again once we leave. </div></div>

While I agree we shouldn't be anywhere overseas right now, the answer to number 2 is obvious, we've been at least half responsible for fucking them up since 1979, and when we bailed the first time it obviously came back to bite us in the ass, much like the rest of the places in the world where we made a mess with the russians and never bothered fixing it. We need a big policy shift both at home and abroad as obviously we are not doing well. In 2001 we accounted for over 31% of the global economy, today we are barely 20%.

 

[LongArm]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

well said

 

[ZLBubba]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I agree that it will devolve into fiefdoms (which we are arming through the "arbaqai" system) but in the end, I think the Taliban will slowly gobble the whole place back up just like they did in the 90's. The Pakistanis will back them as they have all along and unlike us, they don't mind doing whatever it takes for their side to win. It's gonna be ugly. Sure SOF will stay there and play "whack-a-mole" with the enemy of the week, but they've been doing that for 10 years with little strategic effect (Taliban is still taking over). My best advice to any Afghan that might be reading this: Grab your most important possesions, pick a direction, start walking, don't stop untill you are no longer in Afghanistan. Khudai Pa Mon </div></div>

Always good to see your posts on this stuff, Mustafa. The smart Afghans have already left or are now leaving and selling off businesses, assets as we speak. I don't blame them one bit and would be doing the same with my family.

 

[Anvil_X]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

agree with the rest, Cut slingload. I've put too many of my buddies in the ground and watched the situation steadily decline regardless of our efforts. the only way to fix the mess is to change Afghan society on fundamental levels over several decades. do we have several decades? no. The Hell with that. And when the only literate men in your culture are clerics that say to their people things like "The Quran says to not allow your children to go to Madrassa" or "you shouldn't use these more efficient agricultural methods that will keep you from starving", you're fighting a real uphill battle. The Clerics I have dealt with hoard their power over the people, and use the Quran as a tool to control the peasants. And since the peasants can't read, who's to say that the Quran doesn't have a passage saying these things?

add to it that we're being bled dry by the contractors peddling their wares at exhorbitant prices, and the corrupt local contracting practices....

Here's another glimpse into the Afghan mentality- we constructed over 100 solar powered streetlights in my sector along the main road through town in 2010. within a week, only 10 or so were still operational because the locals took them all down, stripped out the wiring, and sold the components for scrap.

every time we meet HiG, Haqqani, Al Qaeda, or The run-of-the-mill Taliban in battle, we crush them. Utterly crush them. But you don't win a COIN fight like that, you win by getting locals to support their government and stop supporting the Taliban, and the only way to do so is by improving their lives and giving them the expectation that life will be better under their government.

With those people, I just don't see it happening.

 

[pinsandpitons]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

I don't wish to interject inappropriate humor in the discussion, and I do not have (like many of the excelent posts above) have first hand knowledge, but my views of the situation have devolved in the last 11 years from 'we can do this', to the sentiments displayed below....

Moral obligation: No more than after the soviets. Throwing good blood after bad is worse that good money after bad.

Zero option: Less expensive short term, probably bad long term (lack of ground truth). I try to think long term.

Good post, not too political. Important topic to think about as citizens.

 

[pdogsbeware]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Pinsandpitons</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Zero option: Less expensive short term, probably bad long term (lack of ground truth). I try to think long term.</div></div> I see no long term bad things coming from this. People underestimate the...how should I put this...complete lack of any kind of national cohesion. They don't give a shit about anything except growing food for their families. They don't have international interests, and I can't imagine they will even in the next 100 years.

Astan has an abundance of rare-earth metals and ores, and that's the only reason I see to look at it long term. But as shown in African nations...the situation of the country doesn't matter one iota. Companies, if they want it, will get it. It won't matter if there's US troops there, if we're friendly, or at each other's throats.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Pinsandpitons</div><div class="ubbcode-body">

</div></div>
Do you really feel that the genocide of people of multiple religions (they aren't all muslims in that area) is the correct answer!? Furthermore, answer to what; Them having different religious beliefs? Different cultural beliefs? Just being different is worthy of a death sentence?

It's just as it is everywhere, the few in power are the ones doing the bad deeds. Why punish the peasant?

 

[ajwcotton]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

What people don't realize when discussing Afghanistan is that in places like Kabul that is where the wealthy Afghans were before the wars. In almost all of the rest of Afghanistan there are few resources and life is hard even for the upper to middle class Afghan the poor generally have a hard time even supporting their families(which is why it is so prevalant for the taliban to pay poor farmers to do their dirty work). All the Pictures of Kabul from the 60's and 70's do not really represent the majority of how the country is or was. In reality most Afghans have almost no loyalty to their country, areas are governed by tribes and clans not the central government. Who is in power in Kabul has little affect on how the common Afghan is going to feed his family or make a living.
I think the key to any modern society (of any religious majority) is education. The reason that Afghanistan did not rebound after the soviet invasion is because a small sect of extremiests the Taliban used the termoil to assert themselves then threaten the population into doing as they saw fit. They destroyed schools and instituted islamic law to the extreme. The majority of the population in small villages saw little change except that the Taliban would extort money and goods from them to further their cause. This went on untill 2001. At first we were fighting the Taliban and AQ, now we are fighting the local INS, mostly people who just want us gone. Occasionally there will be the foreign fighter that wants to fight Americans, these people will usually later become higher AQ leaders but are doing a "tour" fighting Christian Infedels. There are still are still Taliban, but there are also a lot of criminal warlords that fight for money and for money will fight for whomever pays.
As for the Local GOV and MIL the Afghan soldiers have little to fight for besides a paycheck. Most are very poor, completely uneducated, and have little loyalty to the country or their unit. Unlike our Military where soldiers fight and die for each other the Afghans have very loose affiliation with the unit which they serve. In addition to that they are generally very undiciplined, all the funny rumors are true, and have very little respect for a command structure. Also the ANA and ANP are usually targeted and murdered by the Taliban and warlords for helping the occupying force.
All of this compounded means a very tough prospect of restoring order. Imagine if a forign power invaded America, and dictated to you your daily life, would you not try to make them reconsider their strategy by means of force. I know I would. All in all the only way to make a withdrawl is to educate the population. To do this you must gain the trust of the population, this in not done by applying force with an occupying military. This is accomplished by helping to improve agraculture and industry which will improve the average Afghan's way of life. Also we need to help the Afghan's develop their newly found mineral resources, but be completely transparent about it there can be no question that we are after their resources like with oil in Iraq. If all of that is accomplished it will put Afghanistan on the right track, and give us a way to withdraw and actually feel good about helping another nation prosper.
Just some of my thoughts on the issue. And yes I have spent a considerable amount of time in the country.
-Adam

I posted the above a while ago in a different thread on Afghanisstan. I can now whole heartedly believe that the people of that country give no shits about thier own country or ever developing it into a modernized socioty. If they don't care about how shitty their country is why should we. As long as we keep an eye on AQ there is no reason to stay there with an entire army, that is what the CIA is for. Let it completely fall apart and see if it affects the regular shitty Afghan farmer, They'll keep going just like they have since Bible times. Little has changed over there in a thousand years.

 

[ajwcotton]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

duplicate post

 

[pinsandpitons]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: pdogsbeware</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Do you really feel that the genocide of people of multiple religions (they aren't all muslims in that area) is the correct answer!? </div></div>

No I don't. The thought behind the cartoon is that we're never going to 'fix' the tribal mindset which is the cause of the 'fucked-up-ness' in my opinion, so we should not be involved. We tried, we failed, move on.

 

[Graham]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mustafa</div><div class="ubbcode-body">My best advice to any Afghan that might be reading this: Grab your most important possesions, pick a direction, start walking, don't stop untill you are no longer in Afghanistan. Khudai Pa Mon </div></div>I would add to be mindful of the direction you pick. Here's some light reading for the journey:

http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1141

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Re: Afghanistan- Zero Option

Afghanistan, the place where America has joined a long succession of countries who have proven, to their disappointment, that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, and you can't make an actual nation out of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan, the nation where America has learned it's OK for Islamic extremists to own an AK47 because it's a prerequisite for masculine self respect, but free and law abiding Americans can't be trusted with one.

Greg