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Might not see any increase, might see a little, or a lot. Impossible to tell as barrels are all unique. My 28" Bartlein 300NM saw virtually nothing. Bartlein 27" .260 - about 45 fps at the ~200 round mark. It can be a difficult metric to measure if your load development overlaps the possible "break-in".
I have a criterion 6 creed remgae. With 107 smks it jumped 150 fps after it was broken in. Right around 100 rounds. Went from 2950 to 3100. Fastest barrel I’ve seen.
Different barrels/cartridges with different characteristics...
243 win XCaliber 80-90fps 6 Creed in XCaliber Cryo Treated barrels I saw as much as 120fps when they finally settled down XCaliber Cryo Treated 6.5x47 50-60fps Hawk Hill 6.5x47 I saw it speed up and then settle back down maybe like 25-30fps
Most of it is due to lot to lot variation in barrel steel. Components is a 2nd factor, but I've crossed over to multiple barrels using the same lot of components numerous times.
Yes a current barrel spiked up then settled back down. once it flatlines I load dev and move on with life.
Agreed with LoneWolf on barrel steel variation, even within a same lot of steel it could finish different from barrel to barrel.
Also the reamer cut at the lands should contribute to the velocity gain. once it looses any type of burr and starts getting softer edges I'd expect it to help gain speed.
Bringing up a old thread to add some data. Firt shot 2418 with a 4 shot average of 2474 5th shot 2618 with a 4 shot average of 2618. Barrel is a Steel Proof 20in 6.5 Creedmoor. Factory Hornady 140 eld ammo for break in. I did take out the chronograph for the next 25 rounds but will next session to see what it settles at .