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Gold & Silver

I am sure your friend did not plan to die at 44. I am sure he planed a long and prosperous life. I have certainly spoke to some 60-70 year old people who wish they had saved a little more.

I don't disagree with you sir, we should all plan for the future. I just don't think anyone who conceptualizes living in the Apocalypse, truly realizes how horrible an existence it would be. I know so many people who get so wrapped up in saving for the future, that it becomes an obsession with them. But, I digress, back to the gold & silver thing, it's just plain pretty, if nothing else.
 
I am following this thread hoping someone with knowledge of the issue will describe how to get some coin with out getting ripped of.
 
I am following this thread hoping someone with knowledge of the issue will describe how to get some coin with out getting ripped of.

Are you looking to find a place to buy from without getting overly charged? Lots of good places for that.
 
Are you looking to find a place to buy from without getting overly charged? Lots of good places for that.
I guess that is part of it, but I would also like to have confidence that I was not getting anything counterfeit.
 
Been hanging on to about 60 ounces of silver for the past 20 years. Almost sold when it was $8/oz, shoulda sold when it was $40/oz.
 
I guess that is part of it, but I would also like to have confidence that I was not getting anything counterfeit.

I have not heard much about counterfeit us gold coins. The penalty is the same as counterfeiting money. US Gold Coins will all weigh 1oz almost exactly. There will be very very little difference in weight between them. You can also buy a gold test kit very inexpensively on the net.

Always make sure you pay that days spot price with no more than a 7% premium. The premium is the profit for the dealer. So spot plus 7% is the most you should pay. Buy Bullion coin not proof coin. Proofs cost more, they are extra fine for collectors. If they will sell proofs at bullion then suspect them.

The premium is negotiable you should be able to get them to 5-6% pretty easy. Buy a hundred or more and you may get them down to 4%. But how many folks can really go buy $130,000.00 in gold? Not many.

I am no expert but that is what I know.
 
Been hanging on to about 60 ounces of silver for the past 20 years. Almost sold when it was $8/oz, shoulda sold when it was $40/oz.

Or gotten really lucky and sold it during the 2 days it peaked to almost $50 an ounce.
 
I guess that is part of it, but I would also like to have confidence that I was not getting anything counterfeit.

That will always be a significant concern and yes there are quite a bit of fakes in the world, especially once you get into the bars.
There is lots of discussion around about exactly how much of the gold in reserve is actually either fake or significantly diluted.
You can even buy your own near perfect fakes to impress your party guests (or gold diggers) with your vast wealth: Get Your Fake Tungsten-Filled Gold Coins Here | Zero Hedge

Usually if you buy gold from a reputable dealer that has been in business a long time, with a good reputation & a good connection directly with the mints, you have less of a chance of running into fakes. I would recommend Gold Prices and Investments | Buy Gold Coins | IRAs | Lear Capital but there are lots of others out there.

The prices will usually be all very similar as it's based on the spot price of the metal + a minting / distributing markup, (Usually $1 to $3 per coin for silver and $20 to $80 per coin for gold).
Most of the better dealers also will tell you on their website how much they pay to buy coins as well.

If you have a good reloading setup already, you can do your own checks on the coins by getting an exact weight on your reloading scale & using your micrometer / caliper to get the exact thickness & diameter.
Or you can get some simple handheld tools that do the same thing in a more basic way like these:
The Easy Way to Test Gold Coins
Welcome to Fisch - Dont buy fake gold coins. Get the Fisch. Protect your gold investment.

I would suggest that you stay away from bars and rounds unless you enjoy melting it down yourself and realize most any of the big boys you go to sell it to will also probably have it melted down as well.
 
My retirement system is owned by the Police and Fire employees and retirees. Investments are controlled by us and not the city or state government, meaning we chose the investments instead of the government's silly pet projects.

Because we managed it to pay retirement benefits instead of buying vote by funding projects we didn't need, its over funded.

We invest in the market, not precious metals.

Yes gold and silver prices increase, but you set on those increases, you can't re-invest profits and buy more gold and silver, like you can stocks and bonds, plus you have the advantage of dividends on a lot of stock.

I use to be in the market, but 20 years ago I sold out to pay for my retirement home. Because of the investments in stocks and bonds by my retirement system I nor my wife will ever have to worry about money. Now I'm in the spending phase of my life, not the investment phase.

Before you say I could loose my pension like many public pensions across the country, remember I said WE own it. Not the city/state PERS. It's over funded, not unfunded like many public pension's.

The trick is to diversify regardless of which way you go.
 
The short and mostly unhelpful answer is that it depends on the nature of the financial instrument you're investing in, it's price volatility (and the volatility of the underlying asset if there is one), your risk appetite and skill level. To illustrate, some define short-term as minutes or even seconds, other as weeks. I invest in a mixture of equities and options. I sometimes hold an equity position for a matter of a couple of weeks. This is about my usual short-term horizon. For options it can be for a few days to even a few months depending on the time duration left in the option and whether I'm doing a 'trade' or riding a trend. For me, medium term is never more than a quarter. Anything more than that and I consider it long-term investment. I don't believe in the general trend of prices being up and being passive in the market. Seen too many events to believe in that as reliable.

Thanks. After a long stint in hi tech and then almost 2 decades in the financial industry I think your advice is spot on. MANY dont have the skill, aptitude or horsepower to run a strategy as you describe with the probability of ongoing market beating results. TOO MANY dont see the folly in not trying to take their future into their hands.
 
I don't think the point is trying to get rich or retire by collecting gold/precious metals. It's about having something that is worth something if/when the dollar goes belly up. The way the politicians and the federal reserve have been acting lately make it less and less certain that "everything's going to be fine". Augmenting 5-10% of a portfolio with gold/silver/platinum (in lieu of let's say bond investments) is probably not fool hardy or reckless.

One in the hand is worth two in the bush! The worst thing that can happen from buying gold is owning a bunch of... gold? That ain't retarded, it's a win-win. I mean who really goes around saying, "Gee I wish I didn't have all this gold right now".
 
Buy stuff that you can move quick when it comes time. American silver/gold eagles...90% silver coins... Have a plan of how to sell if need be.

Another thing to remember is that the price will go up and it will go down.
 
It's not when to buy, but when to sell that plagues most investing. I think having a good supply of guns and ammo will be your best hedge, if the SHTF in the economy. Best things to have to protect your family and property.
 
I don't think the point is trying to get rich or retire by collecting gold/precious metals. It's about having something that is worth something if/when the dollar goes belly up. The way the politicians and the federal reserve have been acting lately make it less and less certain that "everything's going to be fine". Augmenting 5-10% of a portfolio with gold/silver/platinum (in lieu of let's say bond investments) is probably not fool hardy or reckless.

One in the hand is worth two in the bush! The worst thing that can happen from buying gold is owning a bunch of... gold? That ain't retarded, it's a win-win. I mean who really goes around saying, "Gee I wish I didn't have all this gold right now".

You're giving mixed messages and it's without the appropriate context. The 5 -10% portfolio composition is ok for conventional wisdom and most investors who already have a portfolio that is giving them an optimized mix of gains and income. However, if you're say 55 years old, low to medium income, below average savings or worse then the WORST thing is to put money into an asset that a) has shown increased volatility b) pays zero income c) can be illiquid to sell or even costly to own. Many people don't realize that they need three things a) income b) tax efficiency in their wealth management c) minimum transaction cost. There are ways and means of getting those things but it's not a cookie cutter approach and few financial advisers have either the incentive or clued in to how to steer their clients towards them.

This whole fear of the dollar collapsing - well, that will only happen when there's a viable, trusted and defensible alternative and frankly, that's not on the horizon and it's nothing that will happen quickly, thus leaving us with plenty of time to create a 'dollar collapse' dope card and call the right shots...

Investments and investment 'news' is a business and nothing sells product better than either sex or fear. This dollar bomb and rampaging inflation and financial post-apocalyptic world is the gift of the gods to financial and PM producers. Be sensible, be informed and be aware that things change and the only defense against that change is true knowledge and not what you get from a talking head on TV.
 
The guy that bought it when it was $1700 an oz
and absolutely needs to convert it to USD right now... - thats the correct statement in context of owning physical gold.

Gold is a hedge against government for those who can afford it. You really need to understand that only excess wealth should be stored in gold/and possibly silver and that at times when you expect some hard times ahead.

I cannot comment on privately owned funds and their investment strategies but i can comment on financial industry in general which is regulated (i.e. you have controls on what can be in your portfolio and at what amount) and is basically set for a run in with an iceberg very soon (some say bow is already grinding). The incestuous relationship between financial industry and government has come full circle and there will be hell to pay and even best companies stocks will take a beating and bonds will be worthless in near future.
In such environment gold becomes attractive to own - in the end its really simple (assuming you have extra wealth to store) either you believe everything is going to be fine and dandy in that case invest in stock market, bonds, derivatives of various flavors or you don't in that case you store it gold/arts/whatever tangibles you believe will keep their value.
 
Many people don't realize that they need three things a) income b) tax efficiency in their wealth management c) minimum transaction cost. There are ways and means of getting those things but it's not a cookie cutter approach and few financial advisers have either the incentive or clued in to how to steer their clients towards them.QUOTE]

+1 ^^^^^
As you have a plan to create income so should you have a plan to manage associated costs to that earned income. Taxes is one and costs associated with managing it is another. Given your time frame and desire/time/ability to manage your finances one might be better looking at a plan around B&C rather than just earning more.
 
...if you're say 55 years old, low to medium income, below average savings or worse then the WORST thing is to put money into an asset that a) has shown increased volatility b) pays zero income c) can be illiquid to sell or even costly to own. Many people don't realize that they need three things a) income b) tax efficiency in their wealth management c) minimum transaction cost. There are ways and means of getting those things but it's not a cookie cutter approach and few financial advisers have either the incentive or clued in to how to steer their clients towards them.

This whole fear of the dollar collapsing - well, that will only happen when there's a viable, trusted and defensible alternative and frankly, that's not on the horizon and it's nothing that will happen quickly, thus leaving us with plenty of time to create a 'dollar collapse' dope card and call the right shots...

Investments and investment 'news' is a business and nothing sells product better than either sex or fear. This dollar bomb and rampaging inflation and financial post-apocalyptic world is the gift of the gods to financial and PM producers. Be sensible, be informed and be aware that things change and the only defense against that change is true knowledge and not what you get from a talking head on TV.
^^^ That right there is some really good advice. Emotions are the worst things to be led by when making investment decisions. Yeah, it's a lot of money that you're typically talking about, and so yeah, it's hard to keep yourself detached from all the normal, natural hopes and fears, but you must. You'll get eaten otherwise.

-David
 
EventHorizon,

You stated that "Investing can be done stupidly and lazily but then you will lose your money."

I agree with the "stupidly" part, but there seems to be a few lazy investing options that work well for people. Now I'm fairly new to investing, so my breadth of knowledge on the subject is pretty limited, especially when compared to someone with your background. Which is why I'm curious to hear your opinion on the following.

What are your thoughts on a "couch potato"/"lazy" portfolio, which is set up with a diverse range of Index funds or ETF's? I think you can definitely put those in the lazy category, and a lot of people seem to swear by them.
 
Graphics from demonocracy to help visualize. One is all the silver that is accessible today, as a cube beside a house. Even if you know how to mine or produce silver it's hard to enlarge this cube. The other silver cube is what we've produced but lost, no longer accessible.

The other picture is 1 Trillion in dollar bills. This is how much new money we imagined into existence in 2013 through QE.

The "silver price" is more about measuring the value of a dollar than measuring the value of silver. When the amount of dollars is changing so fast you need a stable yardstick to measure against.

If your investment strategy is stocks, mutual funds etc try to make sure you are racking up gains faster than the printing press...as long as you can double your investment every few years you'll be fine.
 

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The biggest mistake the small investor makes in the market is not being able to accept a loss, then lick their wounds and move on. They will sit on a loser forever hoping for it to recover. All your decisions will not be good ones, learn when to say uncle on any given security.

I think the market is way oversold right now and a big correction is coming. Am I right? Only time will tell that. I think a good sign of the start of this correction will be when you see the short market getting very active.
 
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I think the market is way oversold right now and a big correction is coming. Am I right? Only time will tell that. I think a good sign of the start of this correction will be when you see the short market getting very active.

"Definition of 'Oversold'
1. A condition in which the price of an underlying asset has fallen sharply, and to a level below which its true value resides. This condition is usually a result of market overreaction or panic selling."
Oversold Definition | Investopedia
 
The biggest mistake the small investor makes in the market is not being able to accept a loss, then lick their wounds and move on. They will sit on a loser forever hoping for it to recover. All your decisions will not be good ones, learn when to say uncle on any given security.

I think the market is way oversold right now and a big correction is coming. Am I right? Only time will tell that. I think a good sign of the start of this correction will be when you see the short market getting very active.

You mean overbought.

The short market is not a leading indicator and can give profoundly false signals - if it was accurate then everyone would be using it. The open short positions are also inclusive of hedged strategies - i.e. when the investor is bullish but hedges with a short and a stop in case he's wrong.
 
You mean overbought.

The short market is not a leading indicator and can give profoundly false signals - if it was accurate then everyone would be using it. The open short positions are also inclusive of hedged strategies - i.e. when the investor is bullish but hedges with a short and a stop in case he's wrong.
The same as precious metal dealers do.

If I see short volume starting to rise in a significant way, I will worry. I am not as cool as you.
 
I'm no professional but but if you're thinking about changing your investment strategy or beginning to invest; I think it's worth the time to familiarize yourself with efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the different roles of financial professionals. Brokers have no fiduciary duty whereas a CFA does. Also, spend a lot of time developing your investment strategy and level of risk aversion. The real reason to use a financial professional is to structure your investments to so they make the most sense from tax and liquidity needs.

Most people would be better off using low transaction cost index funds and staying away from active investments. If professionals rarely beat the market average over an extended period enough to offset their fees then it's dumb to think that an amateur investor will be able to do so through active investment.

Give this paper about efficient market hypothesis a read: http://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf

Most people in the finance industry hate (EMH) because it means that a lot of their jobs are not really that necessary but I think there are still plenty of other reasons to use a finance professional than hoping for returns that outperform the market average.

An exception to not actively investing would be if you are an expert in a niche market. As far as actively trading in any commodities market; I don't think it would be wise in the long-run for most people unless you are very sophisticated in that area. I would actually hold the physical goods that you think would be valuable in an economic collapse. Unless you are buying physical gold, I don't see how a piece of paper that says you own gold is any better than other investments in the event of an economic collapse.
 
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Precious metals have a value to a large extent due to fear of the collapse of the currency and of governments ability to control the economy. Or to manage the economy.

Below is a short treatise on the psychology of fear, doomsday prepping and preparing for the collapse of government.


..."That’s because, deep down for various reasons, there’s something appealing—at least to some of us—about the end of the world.

University of Minnesota neuroscientist Shmuel Lissek, who studies the fear system, believes that at its heart, the concept of doomsday evokes an innate and ancient bias in most mammals. “The initial response to any hint of alarm is fear. This is the architecture with which we’re built,” Lissek says. Over evolutionary history, organisms with a better-safe-than-sorry approach survive. This mechanism has had consequences for both the body and brain, where the fast-acting amygdala can activate a fearful stress response before “higher” cortical areas have a chance to assess the situation and respond more rationally.

But why would anyone enjoy kindling this fearful response? Lissek suspects that some apocalyptic believers find the idea that the end is nigh to be validating. Individuals with a history of traumatic experiences, for example, may be fatalistic. For these people, finding a group of like-minded fatalists is reassuring. There may also be comfort in being able to attribute doom to some larger cosmic order—such as an ancient Mayan prophecy. This kind of mythology removes any sense of individual responsibility.

There’s an even broader allure to knowing the precise end date. “Apocalyptic beliefs make existential threats—the fear of our mortality—predictable,” Lissek says. Lissek, in collaboration with National Institute of Mental Health neuroscientist Christian Grillon and colleagues, has found that when an unpleasant or painful experience, such as an electric shock, is predictable, we relax. The anxiety produced by uncertainty is gone. Knowing when the end will come doesn’t appeal equally to everyone, of course—but for many of us it’s paradoxically a reason to stop worrying.

This also means people can focus on preparing. Doomsday preppers who assemble their bunker and canned food, Lissek believes, are engaged in goal-oriented behaviors, which are a proven therapy in times of trouble.

Beyond the universal aspects of fear and our survival response to it, certain personality traits may make individuals more susceptible to believing it’s the end of the world. Social psychologist Karen Douglas at the University of Kent studies conspiracy theorists and suspects that her study subjects, in some cases, share attributes with those who believe in an impending apocalypse. She points out that, although these are essentially two different phenomena, certain apocalyptic beliefs are also at the heart of conspiracy theories—for example, the belief that government agencies know about an impending disaster and are intentionally hiding this fact to prevent panic.

“One trait I see linking the two is the feeling of powerlessness, often connected to a mistrust in authority,” Douglas says. Among conspiracy theorists, these convictions of mistrust and impotence make their conspiracies more precious—and real. “People feel like they have knowledge that others do not.”

Relatively few studies exist on the individuals who start and propagate these theories. Douglas points out that research into the psychology of persuasion has found that those who believe most are also most motivated to broadcast their beliefs. In the Internet age, that’s an easier feat than ever before.

Lessons from Dystopia

Steven Schlozman, drawing both from his experiences as a Harvard Medical School child psychiatrist and novelist (his first book recounts a zombie apocalypse) believes it’s the post-apocalyptic landscape that fascinates people most.

“I talk to kids in my practice and they see it as a good thing. They say, ‘life would be so simple—I’d shoot some zombies and wouldn’t have to go to school,’” Schlozman says. In both literature and in speaking with patients, Schlozman has noticed that people frequently romanticize the end times. They imagine surviving, thriving and going back to nature.

Schlozman recently had an experience that eerily echoed Orson Welles’s 1938 The War of the Worlds broadcast. He was discussing his book on a radio program and they had to cut the show short when listeners misconstrued his fiction for fact. He believes the propensity to panic is not constant in history but instead reflects the times. In today’s complicated world with terrorism, war, fiscal cliffs and climate change, people are primed for panic.

“All of this uncertainty and all of this fear comes together and people think maybe life would be better” after a disaster, Schlozman says. Of course, in truth, most of their post-apocalyptic dreams are just fantasies that ignore the real hardships of pioneer life and crumbling infrastructure. He points out that, if anything, tales of apocalypse, particularly involving zombies, should ideally teach us something about the world we should avoid—and how to make necessary changes now.

Psychology Reveals the Comforts of the Apocalypse | Observations, Scientific American Blog Network