Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?
There's no question that the situation is profoundly bad - no doubt worse than we even know - as is. However, my biggest concern (for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is my family down there) is that the worst-case scenario is potentially much, MUCH worse than anyone has speculated.
Loss of the actual wellhead (by whatever means; interior erosion, pressure damage, etc.) could be catastrophic on a scale far beyond what's being discussed. As it is, we have at least a *chance* of containment, even though it would appear that those in charge couldn't find their way out of a shallow ditch with a fucking map. If that wellhead fails completely... As best I can tell, that's never happened, so we really don't know what volume we could be dealing with... 50? 60? 80,000 barrels per DAY?!?
At that point, environmental damage and seafood issues become the least of our problems. Think about this (and as stated above, I'd LOVE to be wrong about all of this):
1 If it fails catastrophically, we'll have no notice and damn little response time, so the vast majority of people on the coast will respond in a knee-jerk manner; i.e., panic.
2 The majority of the economy on the Gulf Coast comes to a full stop. Fishing and tourism essentially vaporize. Nevermind Mexico and Carribean islands and nations.
3 The much larger slick is caught in the Gulf Stream current (there's another name for it, but I can't remember it) that starts in the Gulf and heads up the East Coast. We're no longer just dealing with just a problem in the Gulf.
4 Millions of people move from coastal areas further inland to find work. On a very gradual scale, this could be handled. In a greatly compressed time-frame, all sorts of issues come out of this in regional cities further inland (Dallas, Austin, Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, etc.) I'm thinking of the post-Katrina effect seen in these same areas... Some local businesses thrived, but there was also a corresponding crime boom. This last point could go in any of a hundred different directions, not all of them catastrophic, but the point is that there is essentially NO PLAN in place to deal with these issues.
Can you tell that I'm not exactly thrilled with the situation?