Maggie’s Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

I'm from the AL gulf coast; all of my family is still there. Starting to see tarballs wash up on shore, but that's all we're seeing so far. That's only because we've been lucky with the weather, though.

There's an amazing amount of contradictory information out there, even if all you listen to is the 'official' press conferences. All I can say with any certainty is that two weekends ago, there was a BP press conference with BHO in attendance at which they said they had a fleet of vessels and containment booms over the spill at that very moment working on the problem. Well, at the time of the press conference, my friend Tom was flying over the spill in a Cessna, and said there were 3 small boats on site, with no booms visible there, on the way out or on the way back. Tom's an environmental consultant.

Not ranting, just reporting what I've heard/seen. Bottom line, I think it's worse than anyone is being told, and I think the worst case scenario is MUCH worse than anyone wants to consider. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

i live near the gulf coast and work with alot of the major oil companies on spill and other environmental issues. its hard to wrap your mind around exactly how large the slick is. even if they could stop the leak today we still have many months possibly over a year to get this mess cleaned up.

as far as the current impacts, there has been a serious rush on gulf seafood. lots of people stocking up. expect shrimp and gulf fish prices to go up. expect oyster prices to skyrocket. i believe the state either has closed of will be closing all recreational offshore fishing east atchafalaya bay. which blows . i had 2 blue water trips line up this summer. if they can keep it out of the marshes it shouldnt be that bad. beaches are easy to clean. marshland is not
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

I can tell you oil balls are starting to wash up pretty far west of the Miss River outlet. If they don't get this thing shut off quickly it's going to be really bad.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Could a hurricane actually disperse it and lead to a dilution type effect by spreading the same concentration over a much larger surface area and therefore less potential severe environmental impact than a more concentrated mass on the coastlands as is currently ? Probably not; but just wondering?
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Tar balls on the shore is a mere inconvenience, that one can notice. The real tragedy, is that tons of oil is coating the bottom, the ocean floor. This kills miles of oyster beds, and also kills the fish that feed on shellfish (Reds, Pampano, and other croakers). The krill that whales feed on also are contaminated. this includes shrimp larvae.
The oil is not just on the surface, it is throughout the water column, and the floor.
This is a major FU.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

5/9

20100509.1902.a1.oil_slick_true.jpg


5/11

a01.100511.1850.oil_slick.modis_true.jpg


source

Time sequence satellite photos on Nat. Geo. website.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

If both pics are to the same scale, looks to be at least double in size of the main surface slick in just a matter of two days if I am reading the images correctly, and that was as of May 11th. Also, like hankpac said, the real damage is happening under the surface. This is extremely bad.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

The Nat Geo photos give a great indication of scale.
Consider that there is just shy of a mile of water between the slick and the point of origin.
Using the estimated 5000 barrels of a oil a day flow rate, the spill is almost half of the Exxon Valdez spill.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Bushmaster7</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Could a hurricane actually disperse it and lead to a dilution type effect by spreading the same concentration over a much larger surface area and therefore less potential severe environmental impact than a more concentrated mass on the coastlands as is currently ? Probably not; but just wondering? </div></div>

in theory yes that is possible. the problem is the limits set on crude oil and all of the voc's associated with it are really low. i dont know what they are offhand. plus oil doesnt brake down easily if at all in water. storm surges routinely push through 30-40 miles of marsh. so basically if the area near the spill took a direct hit we would be cleaning miles of marsh for years to come. at that point this would become a true disaster. as an avid outdoorsmen i dont even want to begin to imagine the potential outcome of something like that.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

a few of our guys that responded to the spill came back to our facility yesterday. as usual with a emergency response situation, they said its a cluster down in venice, la. literally 40 guys trying to load spools of boom onto boats. lots of cheifs and very few indians. this op should take a max of 3 people. national gaurds is arriving by the bus load.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

I think the 5,000 barrels a day is a 'guesstimate'. Figures as high as 26,000 barrels a day have been proposed; but I don't think anyone knows for sure yet just how much is leaking. A heck of a lot anyway you look at it. Even if you took the middle value between the low estimate of 5,000 barrels a day and the high estimate of 26,000 barrels a day, that would put you at 15,500 barrels a day which would already be greater than the Exxon Valdez with no end in sight yet. Still not the world's worst; but could become so if containment efforts continue to fail.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

There's no question that the situation is profoundly bad - no doubt worse than we even know - as is. However, my biggest concern (for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is my family down there) is that the worst-case scenario is potentially much, MUCH worse than anyone has speculated.

Loss of the actual wellhead (by whatever means; interior erosion, pressure damage, etc.) could be catastrophic on a scale far beyond what's being discussed. As it is, we have at least a *chance* of containment, even though it would appear that those in charge couldn't find their way out of a shallow ditch with a fucking map. If that wellhead fails completely... As best I can tell, that's never happened, so we really don't know what volume we could be dealing with... 50? 60? 80,000 barrels per DAY?!?

At that point, environmental damage and seafood issues become the least of our problems. Think about this (and as stated above, I'd LOVE to be wrong about all of this):

1 If it fails catastrophically, we'll have no notice and damn little response time, so the vast majority of people on the coast will respond in a knee-jerk manner; i.e., panic.

2 The majority of the economy on the Gulf Coast comes to a full stop. Fishing and tourism essentially vaporize. Nevermind Mexico and Carribean islands and nations.

3 The much larger slick is caught in the Gulf Stream current (there's another name for it, but I can't remember it) that starts in the Gulf and heads up the East Coast. We're no longer just dealing with just a problem in the Gulf.

4 Millions of people move from coastal areas further inland to find work. On a very gradual scale, this could be handled. In a greatly compressed time-frame, all sorts of issues come out of this in regional cities further inland (Dallas, Austin, Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, etc.) I'm thinking of the post-Katrina effect seen in these same areas... Some local businesses thrived, but there was also a corresponding crime boom. This last point could go in any of a hundred different directions, not all of them catastrophic, but the point is that there is essentially NO PLAN in place to deal with these issues.

Can you tell that I'm not exactly thrilled with the situation?
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: hankpac</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Tar balls on the shore is a mere inconvenience, that one can notice. The real tragedy, is that tons of oil is coating the bottom, the ocean floor. This kills miles of oyster beds, and also kills the fish that feed on shellfish (Reds, Pampano, and other croakers). The krill that whales feed on also are contaminated. this includes shrimp larvae.
The oil is not just on the surface, it is throughout the water column, and the floor.
This is a major FU. </div></div>

Hankpac,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that is EXACTLY what dispersants do. It prevents the oil from sitting on the surface of the water, so that it falls down to the bottom and coats the ever-loving crap out of everything. Not to mention some 'emulsifying' into the water itself.

That's the way I understand them so far, anyways.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: someguy12341</div><div class="ubbcode-body">1 If it fails catastrophically, we'll have no notice and damn little response time, so the vast majority of people on the coast will respond in a knee-jerk manner; i.e., panic.

2 The majority of the economy on the Gulf Coast comes to a full stop. Fishing and tourism essentially vaporize. Nevermind Mexico and Carribean islands and nations.

3 The much larger slick is caught in the Gulf Stream current (there's another name for it, but I can't remember it) that starts in the Gulf and heads up the East Coast. We're no longer just dealing with just a problem in the Gulf.

4 Millions of people move from coastal areas further inland to find work. On a very gradual scale, this could be handled. In a greatly compressed time-frame, all sorts of issues come out of this in regional cities further inland (Dallas, Austin, Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, etc.) I'm thinking of the post-Katrina effect seen in these same areas... Some local businesses thrived, but there was also a corresponding crime boom. This last point could go in any of a hundred different directions, not all of them catastrophic, but the point is that there is essentially NO PLAN in place to deal with these issues.

Can you tell that I'm not exactly thrilled with the situation? </div></div>

We just discussed this the other day in school and came to the same conclusions. I don't think anyone realizes the potential for devastation. This could become very bad very fast.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

i may get a look at it first hand here shortly. we got a call requesting management and supervision. we sent another group of guys out today. i'm expecting to be out there early to mid next week
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: someguy12341</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I'm from the AL gulf coast; all of my family is still there. Starting to see tarballs wash up on shore, but that's all we're seeing so far. That's only because we've been lucky with the weather, though. </div></div>

Please enlighten us where on the gulf coast of Alabama your parents live because I am right here on the beach in Gulf Shores and there is no sign of oil anywhere. In fact, I don't even believe they've seen oil yet on Dauphin Island. So where are the tar balls in Alabama again?
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Just finished reading Newsweek's article May 17, 2010 called "Slick Operator"; sadly detailing how BP plans to get out of financial responsibility - they have lobbied the likes of Leon Panetta, George Mitchell, Christina Todd Whitman & Tom Daschle to the tune of 15.9 million in the past and just hired the Brunswick Group for PR. As of right now, there is a 75 million dollar ceiling on BP's liability for compensation to "injured parties". As for their track record: when subpoened for internal info. on maintenance of the faulty Alaska pipelines that leaked 200,000 gallons- they provided 62 million pages worth of misc. documents when the EPA had 4 people to sift through it. For the Texas City refinery explosion in 2005 they were fined 50 million for Clean Air Act Violation (yes, the explosion that killed 15, injured 180 and displaced 43,000 people); their misdemeanor fine for the Alaska Pipeline and the Texas City incident were combined into one 20 million fine - yet their profits in 2007 were 17.2 billion. I'm all for decreasing dependence on foreign oil but these companies need to take on a social responsibility; but because they are the #1 oil supplier for the Pentagon thats not going to happen. There are still communities that haven't recovered from the Exxon Valdez - the herring fisheries of the Prince William Sound are non-existent, and there are still otters and ducks exposed to the oil from Valdez... to those in the Gulf Coast you have our prayers.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: UKDslayer</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Just finished reading Newsweek's article May 17, 2010 called "Slick Operator"; sadly detailing how BP plans to get out of financial responsibility - they have lobbied the likes of Leon Panetta, George Mitchell, Christina Todd Whitman & Tom Daschle to the tune of 15.9 million in the past and just hired the Brunswick Group for PR. As of right now, there is a 75 million dollar ceiling on BP's liability for compensation to "injured parties". As for their track record: when subpoened for internal info. on maintenance of the faulty Alaska pipelines that leaked 200,000 gallons- they provided 62 million pages worth of misc. documents when the EPA had 4 people to sift through it. For the Texas City refinery explosion in 2005 they were fined 50 million for Clean Air Act Violation (yes, the explosion that killed 15, injured 180 and displaced 43,000 people); their misdemeanor fine for the Alaska Pipeline and the Texas City incident were combined into one 20 million fine - yet their profits in 2007 were 17.2 billion. I'm all for decreasing dependence on foreign oil but these companies need to take on a social responsibility; but because they are the #1 oil supplier for the Pentagon thats not going to happen. There are still communities that haven't recovered from the Exxon Valdez - the herring fisheries of the Prince William Sound are non-existent, and there are still otters and ducks exposed to the oil from Valdez... to those in the Gulf Coast you have our prayers. </div></div>

Yeah I love how the answer is WE'LL just tax them more.

That's not just gonna be handed off to the consumers right?

Nitwits the lot of them.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

37 friggin years since the first Arab oil embargo and still we're no less bent over by this "commodity".

I'm sorry but this is one of those obvious, glaring deficiencies that, like a 500 pound slob, plainly exemplifies a total lack of effort.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: queequeg</div><div class="ubbcode-body">37 friggin years since the first Arab oil embargo and still we're no less bent over by this "commodity".

I'm sorry but this is one of those obvious, glaring deficiencies that, like a 500 pound slob, plainly exemplifies a total lack of effort. </div></div>

I believe we see eye to eye on this despite the disgust you may feel towards me for my carbon neutrality aspirations
wink.gif
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Mike, my reporting of the tarballs on the beach was based on news reports I've gotten from friends who still live down there (both Baldwin and Mobile counties). I assumed that they were reporting firsthand knowledge, but I cannot confirm that. If you're there now, and you're not seeing it, that's great news. Again, I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about the whole damn thing.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: someguy12341</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Mike, my reporting of the tarballs on the beach was based on news reports I've gotten from friends who still live down there (both Baldwin and Mobile counties). I assumed that they were reporting firsthand knowledge, but I cannot confirm that. If you're there now, and you're not seeing it, that's great news. Again, I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about the whole damn thing.</div></div>

I'm right here and we can't even smell the oil and I haven't seen any signs of it. I think some people may see shadows and assume the worst.

This wont work tonight but during the day you can see the water well. It's a live beach cam. We use it to check the surf report.

http://www.bamabeachcams.com/pinkponypub.aspx

I have a friend that lives on Dauphin Island and they haven't seen anything yet although they are preparing for the worst.
Hopefully it will not get this far but who knows, the clock is ticking.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Mike, thanks for the link to the Pony's cam. No substitute for seeing it yourself. I grew up on the Eastern Shore, but I worked at Pirates Cove for years growing up, so we've probably got a lot of the same haunts.

It's been awhile since I've seen him, but Tom Hutchings (who was flying the plane in the video that Cinch linked) used to be over at the cove all the time. I just hope this all ends well.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Thanks for sharing that MLC. All on one page but says a lot. What a mess. I'll be heading down to Florida tomorrow but on the East Coast. regards, Dale.
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Not to minimize the impact of this disaster but has anyone bothered to compare this to the multitude of oil tankers, refineries and other oil storage and production facilities that were regularly destroyed during World War Two?

Six years of unrestricted naval warfare on shipping produced millions (Billions?)of barrels of oil spilled all over the world but often in huge concentrations in regularly traveled (and targeted) shipping lanes and in epic battles of specific theaters of the war.

This is bad, no question and no mealy downplaying is intended by this question. While the impact of this may be felt by far more people given the population of the planet is three times what it was in 1942, what was the long term impact of the Millions of barrels of oil lost during the war?
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

Again, with the dispersants. This way they can put a band-aid on a broken leg, and claim that "they've done something". Yeah, I have a problem with them.

They banned DDT for less, didn't they?
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

I live in Gautier, MS. Other than the local fisheries, not a whole lot of impact. I have spent the last 2 days with my brother-in-law switching out boat motors and making sure everything is good.

We are leasing our boat (just our personal boats, one a piece) to a company to clean up the oil for $600 a day! Granted might not have much of a boat when it is over. But they were beaters for messing around out front and in the rivers anyway!
 
Re: Gulf Coast Oil Impact?

I'm not sure how something like this massive leak concentrated 1 mile down compares to a surface spill? I would think the Navy or Army Corps of Engineers should be playing a key role in stopping the leak?? Have heard nothing about them getting involved.