Is something going on in Ukraine?

BCP

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    They are fleeing, reports are that the military is fleeing, can't even call it an organized retreat.

    I noticed that the Russians flew in hot and fast to western Ukraine, perhaps to send a message that they can easily project force into western Ukraine and to send the same message to NATO members.

    I'm not pro war and don't have a dog in this fight but an awesome show of force may save some lives.

    I read one casualty estimate expecting 50k injured and killed.

    Lots of fighting going on too. Somebody is shooting back.
     

    jbailey

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    Logistics has always been how the Russians beat themselves. With a 3 front assault with 2 of the 3 being 'in front' of the Dnieper River and the 3rd, down south with the water to its back; well, that's going to get interesting for a force that is going to need an insane amount of supplies in the middle of Indian territory.

    +1 Yes, Russians suck at logistics. Hopefully all those fancy expensive precision missiles are in short supply, preventing them from sustaining the huge advantage they have in indirect fires.

    Also, indications that the Javelins and NLAWs are making a difference. Ukrainians are claiming they have retaken the int'l airport near Kiev, holding up/preventing expansion of that air assault.

    Could all be fake news, but time will quickly tell with all the OSINT out there. What is clear is that there is a helluva battle going on in Ukraine right now, biggest fight there since '45.
     
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    Cowpokey

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    UKDslayer

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    They are fleeing, reports are that the military is fleeing, can't even call it an organized retreat.


    I read one casualty estimate expecting 50k injured and killed.
    I wouldn't judge anyone for retreating. I bet at least a 30:1 Ukraine to Russian casualty early.
    I am genuinely sad for all inhabitants of Ukraine, war sucks, but thats what corruption does to a country. Still not worth American blood, we will pay for our sins too someday.
     
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    Mr.BR

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    Haven't seen a single Ukrainian Javelin vid, there are a number of videos of MANPADS in action but a surprisingly low number of helos shot down (2 attack helos and Mi8, with crews surviving the crash landings ), the hardest fight seems to be around Kharkiv where that T80BM was decapitated. Its also likely the only place where Russians did not achieve their objective

    Antonov Airport will be a hard fight tonight as there are probably maybe one BTG worth of Russian paratroopers without APCs or Tanks holding the airport on the outskirts of Kiev .At first, the Ukrainian media announced that the airfield had been recaptured, but now declare that a battle is ongoing, Russian air support is keeping Ukrainians at bay. There are reports of , fighters of the Ahmat Kadyrov regiment in the forests north Kyiv. How they got there is not known. ''101 Jihadi'' regiment is one of more battle hardened units in Russian forces and typically used as semi expendable cannon fodder wherever they expect hard fighting and lots of casualties. So wouldn't be too surprising to use them to relieve the VDV on the airport.

    FMYmOFHXoAw9gJj.jpg


    Donbas front line is a hardened line with trenches and minefields built up over past 8Years, i don't think there are any Russian troops there trying to break through just the local rednecks keeping the Ukrainians engaged while artillery does its work, i also imagine most of the issued Javelins and NLAWs are in Donbas, what wasn't issued to units in the field went up in smoke.

    The night will likely enable some Ukrainian troops to slip out of Donbas as Russian ISR is not quite up to today's western standards they do not decisively own the night. At present from what i can read up if Ukrainian resistance around Kharkiv falls the Ukrainian troops in Donbass
    are in grave danger of being cut off from the rest of Ukraine with only one major highway out and river Dnieper behind them.


    Now we also know a bit about the markings
    Z echelon markings denote the forces advancing from the east while the northern echelon forces bear a V mark , southern force is marked with twin white stripes

    Ukrainian south front is folding often without the fight .


    all in all it seems Russian forces committed to the fight are not large enough for a swift takeover of a country that is not much smaller than Texas. So i have to admit i have no idea what the plan was as it will only get harder the longer it takes. only thing that comes to mind is to force Ukrainians to negotiating table.

     
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    Darayavaus

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    Haven't seen a single Ukrainian Javelin vid, there are a number of videos of MANPADS in action but a surprisingly low number of helos shot down (2 attack helos and Mi8, with crews surviving the crash landings ), the hardest fight seems to be around Kharkiv where that T80BM was decapitated. Its also likely the only place where Russians did not achieve their objective

    Antonov Airport will be a hard fight tonight as there are probably maybe one BTG worth of Russian paratroopers without APCs or Tanks holding the airport on outskirts of Kiev .At first, the Ukrainian media announced that the airfield had been recaptured, but now declare that a battle was going apparently Russian air support is keeping Ukrainians at bay. There are reports of , fighters of the Ahmat Kadyrov regiment in the forests north Kyiv. How they got there is not known. 101 Jihadi regiment is one of more battle hardened units in Russian forces and typically used as semi expendable cannon fodder wherever they expect hard fighting and lots of casualties. So wouldn't be surprising to use them to relieve the VDV on the airport.

    Donbas front line is a hardened line with trenches and minefields built up over past 8Years, i dont think there are any Russian troops there trying to break through just the local rednecks keeping the Ukrainians engaged while artillery does its work, i also imagine most of the issued Javelins and NLAWs are in Donbas, what wasn't issued to units in the field went up in smoke.

    The night will likely enable some Ukrainian troops to slip out of Donbas as Russian ISR is not quite up to today's western standards they do not decisevly own the night. At present from what i can read up if Ukrainian resistance around Kharkiv falls the Ukrainan troops in Donbass
    are in grave danger of being cut off from the rest of Ukraine with only one major highway out and river Dneper behind them .

    Now we also know a bit about the markings
    Z echelon markings denote the forces advancing from the east while the northern echelon forces bear a V mark , southern force is marked with twin white stripes

    Ukrainian south front is folding often without the fight .

    all in all it seems Russians forces commited to the fight are not large enough for a swift takeover of a country that is not much smaller than Texas. So have no clue what the plan was as it will only get harder the longer it takes.


    my impression, and I've said it before, is that the Russian forces deployed so far are not strong enough to accomplish their objectives in the time allotted.

    The airborne units holding the airport are not meant to be there indefinitely; they were dropped in to seize the place until the armor got through. So far it has not. And Crete is a good example of what happens to overextended light airborne troops.

    My belief is still that Russia is not attacking out of strength, but out of weakness as a last desperate gamble with their backs against the wall and time running out.

    There are reports of large Russian reserves, but I wonder if these are not old and outdated material and second line troops which they didn't want to send in. So far no reports of Armata tanks, Su-35's or the Ratnik equipped troops. Either the news we are hearing is incorrect, or maybe they expected the Ukrainians to fold up without a fight like they did in Crimea, and got a rude surprise when they ran into all the Western hardware that we slathered on them with our taxpayer money.
     
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    GreenGO Juan

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    my impression, and I've said it before, is that the Russian forces deployed so far are not strong enough to accomplish their objectives in the time allotted.

    The airborne units holding the airport are not meant to be there indefinitely; they were dropped in to seize the place until the armor got through. So far it has not. And Crete is a good example of what happens to overextended light airborne troops.

    My belief is still that Russia is not attacking out of strength, but out of weakness as a last desperate gamble with their backs against the wall and time running out.

    There are reports of large Russian reserves, but I wonder if these are not old and outdated material and second line troops which they didn't want to send in. So far no reports of Armata tanks, Su-35's or the Ratnik equipped troops. Either Russia has a trick up their sleeve, or they expected the Ukrainians to fold up without a fight like they did in Crimea, and got a rude surprise when they ran into all the Western hardware that we slathered on them with our taxpayer money.
    I have seen videos of Su-57’s and Su-35’s.

    It might not have been current but was presented that way. I don’t know for sure.
     

    Darayavaus

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    Mig 29 and some version of flanker

    I don’t know if dogfight in description is accurate.

    lol, no. it's not a dogfight. it's 2 russian aircraft carrying out ground attack and cover strikes ///// edit, after watching the video in freeze frame, I take that back. no tail stingers, both MiGs. and I agree likely Ukrainian. but not a dogfight.
     
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    Mr.BR

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    lol, no. it's not a dogfight. it's 2 russian aircraft carrying out ground attack and cover strikes
    I don't think Russians use Mig 29 anymore, only ones still in service are the aerobatics team mig 35s
     

    GreenGO Juan

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    lol, no. it's not a dogfight. it's 2 russian aircraft carrying out ground attack and cover strikes
    Yeah, that’s why I said something about it.

    Both of them seem a little bit off but it’s the videos I ran into so I posted them up

    I agree both of them representing a false narrative

    I know people here aren’t afraid to tear things apart
     
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    TxWelder35

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    I don't think Russians use Mig 29 anymore, only ones still in service are the aerobatics team mig 35s
    Russians definitely still fly the mig 29. The bulk of their fighters are still the old su-27s and mig 29s. They don’t have very many new fighter jets flying yet. I think they have like 4 su57s operational that still have old school turbofans in them
     
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    Mr.BR

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    Could those be Ukrainian then. I think Ukraine still has 29’s. With the quality of video it’s hard to tell
    More likely as they are also incredibly short leged and lack significant ground-pounding capabilty, last plane you would take to use for CAS
     

    NoDopes

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    Moscow is willing to negotiate terms of surrender with Kiev regarding the ongoing Russian military offensive currently taking place in Ukraine, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

    According to Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his preparedness to engage in discussions with his Ukrainian counterpart, with a focus on obtaining a guarantee of neutral status and the promise of no weapons on its territory.
     

    Darayavaus

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    side by side of Mig 29 and su27/35. the video is poor quality and there is no scale. I also don't see the tail stinger on either of those planes in the vid, which makes me think they are MiGs.
    su-27-vs-mig-29.gif
     
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    Mr.BR

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    Russians definitely still fly the mig 29. The bulk of their fighters are still the old su-27s and mig 29s. They don’t have very many new fighter jets flying yet. I think they have like 4 su57s operational that still have old school turbofans in them


    This is from 2020 , i think RuAF doesn't operate any Mig29 anymore , they have been put in storage and relegated to deliveries into Syria, Libya , only variant still flown is Mig35 variant and only 6 copies with the aerobatic team. And like said its not well suited for attack role

    Currently, the Russian Aerospace Forces’ MiG-29 fleet is in a fairly parlous state. In fact, the type survives with only one frontline unit, and that’s based outside of Russian territory, at Erebuni in Armenia. Otherwise, the type is limited to service with training and test units - plus the Strizhi display team - and the type has never been subject to a mid-life upgrade. Instead, resources have focused on the Sukhoi Flanker family of heavyweight fighters; first through upgrade and then through new acquisitions.

    For a period, Russia operated more capable MiG-29SMT jets, kicked off when a squadron of these jets were rejected by an export customer, Algeria. The advanced SMTs served with the prestigious 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment at Kursk, but were then withdrawn in 2018 - after being deployed for a brief cameo in the Russian campaign in Syria. They were replaced by Su-30SM multirole fighters. Future prospects for the land-based Fulcrum in Russia don’t look great - only six examples of the all-new MiG-35 have been purchased to date, despite official hopes for a significant order. It’s expected these will be delivered before the end of this year - perhaps to the Strizhi display team."
     
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    TxWelder35

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    This is from 2020 , i think RuAF doesn't operate any Mig29 anymore , they have been put in storage and relegated to deliveries into Syria, Libya , only variant still flown is Mig35 variant and only 6 copies with the aerobatic team. And like said its not well suited for attack role

    Currently, the Russian Aerospace Forces’ MiG-29 fleet is in a fairly parlous state. In fact, the type survives with only one frontline unit, and that’s based outside of Russian territory, at Erebuni in Armenia. Otherwise, the type is limited to service with training and test units - plus the Strizhi display team - and the type has never been subject to a mid-life upgrade. Instead, resources have focused on the Sukhoi Flanker family of heavyweight fighters; first through upgrade and then through new acquisitions.

    For a period, Russia operated more capable MiG-29SMT jets, kicked off when a squadron of these jets were rejected by an export customer, Algeria. The advanced SMTs served with the prestigious 14th Fighter Aviation Regiment at Kursk, but were then withdrawn in 2018 - after being deployed for a brief cameo in the Russian campaign in Syria. They were replaced by Su-30SM multirole fighters. Future prospects for the land-based Fulcrum in Russia don’t look great - only six examples of the all-new MiG-35 have been purchased to date, despite official hopes for a significant order. It’s expected these will be delivered before the end of this year - perhaps to the Strizhi display team."
    Russia still has a fleet of 100 of them as far as I can tell. Most of their fighters are su27s. They are ordering the new variants of the su-35 and 57 but they don’t have many of them yet. Bulk of their air force is still Cold War era jets.
     

    Hegre

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    Attacking people parachuting from an aircraft in distress is a war crime under Protocol I in addition to the 1949 Geneva Conventions.
    A moot point since Russia has been disregarding the Geneva convention systematically since the conflict started 8 or so years back.