Is something going on in Ukraine?

Two36

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Matches Malone

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I disagree with China being a greater threat. Unlike China, only Russia represents an actual overnight existential threat to the United States.

Russia alone has the actual ability to extinguish the existence of the United States or anyone else if they stand between Putin and his goals. Moreover, his publicly stated goals cannot be achieved with NATO, the EU and the United States in his way.

Putin is highly capable and extremely dangerous.
That’s not what I’m seeing from the conflict going on. Unless it’s the JV team playing. Outside of self destructive nuclear war. At which point, the US isn’t destroyed, the world is.
 

GreenGO Juan

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Back to this, I appreciate the video.

I can't state for certain if that is a T-90, however, without those distinct markings we are seeing, I don't feel confident in placing that video in the conflict zone with certainty.

Nor does it appear to have been blown up. More like an accident, possibly falling off in transit? Or is there some indication of blast that I am missing here?

Looking at the tank comparison's it does seem that many of the tanks are being misidentified in the media as being t-72's when they are clearly later models.


Still no T-14 Armata's though.

I want to see how well the T-14 stands up to the Javelin.
Na it looks like it fell of the truck going round that corner.

Been looking for Javelin action too.
 

RGStory

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I don't think Russia is sending in their new shit for that exact reason.

I hope so.

An alternate explanation is that they simply haven't fielded them in significant enough numbers to have reached the military districts assigned to the operations.

The other ominous explanation is that they are keeping the good stuff in reserve in case things spiral out of control.

Or the comical explanation:
Perhaps they just suck and letting the world see that would be embarrassing.
 
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RGStory

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So the rogue Strela (?) is still getting around on it's rampage.
This is odd as fuck.

It really is.
Gotta love the other cars just driving along ignoring the gun fight.

It looks like the Sterla was just didn't have the ordinance to stop it, but was unsure of the other's intentions. Which was apparently to ignore it and go someplace else.
 

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I had doubts but there is the distinctive "Z" designation on this equipment.

Clearly the official Russian statement of only a single official casualty is understated.

Can anyone id that equipment? Looks like TMM-3 and other Bridging and engineering equipment.

If they are losing support units, things are clearly not going well.


Edit to Add:
The text claims these were killed by the Turkish Drones the Ukrainians are using. Baykar Bayraktar TB2.
 

RUTGERS95

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I had doubts but there is the distinctive "Z" designation on this equipment.

Clearly the official Russian statement of only a single official casualty is understated.

Can anyone id that equipment? Looks like TMM-3 and other Bridging and engineering equipment.

If they are losing support units, things are clearly not going well.


Edit to Add:
The text claims these were killed by the Turkish Drones the Ukrainians are using. Baykar Bayraktar TB2.

agree, losing support equipment reads like a really bad storyline for the Russians and clearly shows things are not going as well as they hoped. My only real issue is why are these people driving around and not hauling an AK to fight?

Still cannot figure out why Russia did not use 80% of their forces to overwhelm the defenses
 
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Matches Malone

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agree, losing support equipment reads like a really bad storyline for the Russians and clearly shows things are not going as well as they hoped. My only real issue is why are these people driving around and hauling an AK to fight?

Still cannot figure out why Russia did not use 80% of their forces to overwhelm the defenses
i mean, the method is sound. That how economy of force is implemented. However, the PROPER economy of force seems to have been misjudged by Russian military leadership, or there was logistical problems which is some the issues I hear in the vines.

So probably a combination.
 
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Davo308

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Very good summation direct from Kiev. I found this to be of good value.



Hes correct that Russia could level Ukraine and that restraint is bring used. Killing Ukranians is a last resort.

He then says that essentially the US military does not use restraint which I disagree with.

And Russia both in countering terror and in Chechnia in the late 90s restraint wasn't used.

He also says old men are being conscripted into the Ukranian military but Ukraine has a far smaller population. This isn't uncommon.
 
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Davo308

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agree, losing support equipment reads like a really bad storyline for the Russians and clearly shows things are not going as well as they hoped. My only real issue is why are these people driving around and hauling an AK to fight?

Still cannot figure out why Russia did not use 80% of their forces to overwhelm the defenses

Most of their forces are yet to enter Ukraine.

Like they are dipping their toes in the water.
 

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Still cannot figure out why Russia did not use 80% of their forces to overwhelm the defenses

Logistics is a bitch.

Took them months to build up the forces that they did end up using. Its really impossible from open sources to comment on the depth of operational and strategic supply reserves the Russian military can commit to bolster or enhance the existing operation. 150K troops is a small number for invading a county a little smaller than the size of Texas and 1.5 times the Texan population.

In any case, Russia cannot commit the entirety of its military to this single operation, while Ukraine has no choice but to commit the entirety of theirs. Rapid success was critical to this and that window is quickly closing for Putin. After that they are relying on technological superiority.

For comparison, the last time the Russians fought for this land they used around 4 million men and started with an operation in the Donbas region consisting of 1 million men against 400K defenders. 700K were committed to take Kiev alone.

Between the active duty and reserve forces the Ukrainian military has somewhere around 800K troops and its growing by the hour. I am on edge waiting for this to escalate as Putin is committed to the success of this.
 

RUTGERS95

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Logistics is a bitch.

Took them months to build up the forces that they did end up using. Its really impossible from open sources to comment on the depth of operational and strategic supply reserves the Russian military can commit to bolster or enhance the existing operation. 150K troops is a small number for invading a county a little smaller than the size of Texas and 1.5 times the Texan population.

In any case, Russia cannot commit the entirety of its military to this single operation, while Ukraine has no choice but to commit the entirety of theirs. Rapid success was critical to this and that window is quickly closing for Putin. After that they are relying on technological superiority.

For comparison, the last time the Russians fought for this land they used around 4 million men and started with an operation in the Donbas region consisting of 1 million men against 400K defenders. 700K were committed to take Kiev alone.

Between the active duty and reserve forces the Ukrainian military has somewhere around 800K troops and its growing by the hour. I am on edge waiting for this to escalate as Putin is committed to the success of this.
I said earlier, Putin cannot lose here and will at some point, go full monty. I'm just wondering when it happens
 
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RGStory

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They honestly need to play some taunting, ridiculing voice saying 'You'll never get the airport!' 'You'll never get the airport!' in Kiev, on loop.

Because that's what they are after, that's the key to literally the entire campaign and that's exactly what they are not getting.

There's also talk of a coup by Tsikhanouskaya in Belarus (lol that timing).
Lol.
I read somewhere that the Ukrainians parked a bunch of heavy vehicles across the airfield to prevent hostile landings in the opening hours of the invasion.

Clever.
 
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Sako man

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    Hes correct that Russia could level Ukraine and that restraint is bring used. Killing Ukranians is a last resort.

    He then says that essentially the US military does not use restraint which I disagree with.

    And Russia both in countering terror and in Chechnia in the late 90s restraint wasn't used.

    He also says old men are being conscripted into the Ukranian military but Ukraine has a far smaller population. This isn't uncommon.
    Yeah, mind you he's a civilian and doesn't have any background in military use. However he is on the ground and probably has access to things we will not see or hear. So I'm with you on that. As well it's hard to say what is what, there are lots of videos of burning Russian equipment, as well as dead Ukranians, it's bloody. It's like a crossover of Shock and Awe but some hints of Chechnya. The dust has not settled yet and it may not for months.
     

    UKDslayer

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    If that’s the one with a helo hanger/night club combo under the party deck it’s badass.
    There were a lot of videos on Ragnar because it was chartered before it was sold. It doesn't have a night club per se (I know several in its class that do including Graceful), but it is an icebreaker (Class 1A) w/6000nm Range, has 4 SeaBobs, 4 Lynx Snowmobiles & BigBo ATV, 3 different sauna rooms & a snow machine, massage room and HUGE gym, and I believe it now has a submersible too. Interior with a "Viking/exclusive gentlemen's club" decor (minus the poles). It considered as "indestructible" as far as M/Y go.
     
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    RGStory

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    I said earlier, Putin cannot lose here and will at some point, go full monty. I'm just wondering when it happens

    Guessing we will know shortly. Its been a bit, but as I recall the Russian formations have 72-96 hours of operational capability before exhausting their supplies. They started the consolidation phase earlier today, but without those supplies and increased troop strength the prospect of renewing their assaults gets thinner by the hour or the forward elements risk isolation and eventual encirclement.

    They don't yet control the skies, so its definitely looking grim. No one is reporting on troop movements in the north, but some crazy fucking Ukrainian is literally standing on the road and posting TikTok updates on a key intersection. Meanwhile, a train carrying new mechanized vehicles bearing "V" markings, is headed to Brest, Belarus which lies Northwest of Kyiv. But again the equipment is dated.

    I am hoping "Igor the Insane" is still around so we can time how long those units take to get to the operational theater.
     
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    akmike47

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    No, it doesn't have the party/nightclub. But it does have a large submarine,

    There were a lot of videos on Ragnar because it was chartered before it was sold. It doesn't have a night club per se (I know several in its class that do including Graceful), but it is an icebreaker (Class 1A) w/6000nm Range, has 4 SeaBobs, 4 Lynx Snowmobiles & BigBo ATV, 3 different sauna rooms & a snow machine, massage room and HUGE gym, and I believe it now has a submersible too. Interior with a "Viking/exclusive gentlemen's club" decor (minus the poles). It considered as "indestructible" as far as M/Y go.
    I'm thinking of another one then, thinking on it more the other may not be quite as big as this one
     

    SilentStalkr

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?
     

    Sako man

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?
    Tell her the truth. We all learn it sooner or later. I wouldn't sugar coat it, but you can leave out the details. It's tough to see our kids loose their innocence, I understand this well.

    "there are bad people who are greedy, they want more then you and I, they want to take away other peoples things, and tell them what to do, and there are people who are willing to stop them, that is war" Put it in terms of someone wanting to take away her toys, and ask her what she would do. Children desire the truth, just put it in her terms.

    Just an idea. If she starts to cry then distract her with some ice cream, and blame me.
     

    RGStory

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?

    The truth.

    Clausewitzian style: Nothing more than a duel on a massive scale. Instead of a fight between two people a fight between large groups of people.
     
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    Gee Kay

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    Eostech

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?
    Roughly quote Thucydides.
    Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

    Explain to her, in the context of this Russian invasion that sometimes doing nothing is better than a half-assed attempt and it's better to overestimate the effort required.

    A bluff works until someone calls it.

    Mostly it's a good idea to mind your own business and don't get involved in Europe's peoples drama.

    Manstein may have been right but he didn't win any wars.

    Maybe a bit of Xenophon as well.
     

    kortik

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    Very good summation direct from Kiev. Not totally sure how accurate, but it's defiantly a perspective.


    It is 100% accurate what this dude is saying. It is very regretable that most of the folks in the U.S. do not understand what is going on. I hope Russians will soon get a call where this POS (zelensky) is hiding and then they'll take care of the situation real fast, ending ukraine suffering...
     
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    Mr.BR

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    So the rogue Strela (?) is still getting around on it's rampage.
    This is odd as fuck.


    Its two Ukrainian vehicles in action a Strela-SA-13 SAM and an armored 4x4 ,both without invasion markings .
     

    pmclaine

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    I will follow this thread.

    It feels like Ukraine is fighting for us all and we really need to help them every way we can. Russia with too much thoughts about itself is not a good thing for USA either. Now I feel afraid to live in the area of pre-1917 Russian Empire.


    Ukraine fucked around and found out.

    It let itself be used by geopolitical monsters and they got burned.

    I'm not forgetting Crowdstrike was a Ukrainian company and for that alone your govt sucks.

    It's too bad because my impression of the Ukraine is it's a beautiful place sort of like the American wheat growing areas except every place you plant a shovel turns over human remains.

    Zelensky could have secured his country when Trump was President but either out of fear or playing too cute he left his country exposed.

    This is not a freedom fight.

    By being a willing pawn Ukraine has created the biggest threat to freedom ever.

    Fuck them....I hope they get all the pain returned on them in spades.

    PS - if you are in Poland or the Baltics.........stop flying that damn EU flag and start promoting your countries sovereignty because Brussels wants to fuck you harder than Russia ever would.
     
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    jbailey

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    T-90 sighting.... stuck in mud, abandoned.



    RE Armata - you will not see one because it is not operational and perhaps never will.
     

    jbailey

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    Here is another one that someone more expert than me ID'ed as a T-90 based on the track pattern...
    no idea if it is one, but its clear that the "Red Army" is full of fools. It takes real skill to flip 45 ton tracked vehicle and land upside down in water, probably killing the entire crew of 3.

    FMl5v4HXMAQzhU9
     

    pmclaine

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    Its two Ukrainian vehicles in action a Strela-SA-13 SAM and an armored 4x4 ,both without invasion markings .

    Is the armored 4X4 mounting a 12.7?

    Kind of thought that would rip through a tracked vehicle of that sort.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?
    A timely question. First, it depends on the child. Liken her inquisitiveness to a dry sponge. Start with the basics and allow her to absorb the situation. Observe how she soaks it up. As long as she asks questions, continue to give her information. When she stops asking, move on to a different topic or simply give her time to sort and digest the info.
     

    pmclaine

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    T-90 sighting.... stuck in mud, abandoned.



    RE Armata - you will not see one because it is not operational and perhaps never will.


    Guessing that the supply of buried T34s/Tigers is drying up....


    Recovering those makes millions for local mayors on the black market collector sales.

    I'm guessing this is all about salting the earth with more opportunity.
     

    pmclaine

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    So my oldest daughter who is 7, is asking about war and why it happens and so forth because of the Ukrainian/Russian ordeal. What would you guys tell her?

    Don’t listen to the propaganda machine and governments ruin everything

    Way above her head at the moment. Lmao.


    My daughter asked the same thing. She is 13.

    Because of cell phones/Tik Tok they see shit the way we never would.

    I told her the truth.

    What is happening there has little to do with what is happening there but more to do with what is happening politically here.

    This war didn't have to happen. Our government worked hard to make it happen.

    Trying to ease her fears, she asked if we were going to be bombed, I replied we are safe from the Russians and Ukrainians, but she better fear her government and learn the Constitution and respect it because that's what we should fear.
     

    pmclaine

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    Here is another one that someone more expert than me ID'ed as a T-90 based on the track pattern...
    no idea if it is one, but its clear that the "Red Army" is full of fools. It takes real skill to flip 45 ton tracked vehicle and land upside down in water, probably killing the entire crew of 3.

    FMl5v4HXMAQzhU9


    That was intentional.

    That is how Europe begins bridge infrastructure improvements.

    Tanks make good footings.

     

    Mr.BR

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    Is the armored 4X4 mounting a 12.7?

    Kind of thought that would rip through a tracked vehicle of that sort.
    Indeed MT-LB chassis of Strela is armored only against 7.62x54 AP and can only protect from 12.7mm over frontal arc past 500m , it seems like the 4x4 is armed with PKM , typically Russian ,Ukrainian ,Soviet .12.7 have muzzle brakes make a bit more flash and do have a bit lower rate of fire.
     
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    pmclaine

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    Indeed MT-LB chassis of Strela is armored only against 7.62x54 AP and can only protect from 12.7mm over frontal arc past 500m , it seems like the 4x4 is armed with PKM

    Saw that belch of white smoke as the 4x4 was laying lead and thought they may have hit something mechanically vital but I guess they were just adding insult to injury in "rolling coal".
     
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    Mr.BR

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    Ukrainians claimed to have captured a Chechen general and destroyed 50 tanks. Which I kinda doubt.

    Chechen general Turned out to be Ukrainian acting as POW . But i am certain that Russians will lose a general or two, its just the way they roll the top brass leads on the front line. Generals are as expendable as the grunts.

    Chechen general
    8N6mjjy8iTE.jpg


    Still, the craziest part of this war so far is the civilians vs civilians or army in Kyiv, everyone is on the edge over rumors of Russian saboteurs and itchy fingers end up in a bunch of shootings



    Azov militia
     
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    lariat

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    It is 100% accurate what this dude is saying. It is very regretable that most of the folks in the U.S. do not understand what is going on. I hope Russians will soon get a call where this POS (zelensky) is hiding and then they'll take care of the situation real fast, ending ukraine suffering...
    This guy could have said all of his points with explanations in three minutes. The needle is skipping on his record. I had to stop listening to his high nosed lecturing.

    You have a guy who is apparently from the US running down the US in a hotel in another country telling the world that they suck intellectually because they haven’t come to the same conclusions as he has. In a battle in which there are no good guys no less. He’s just another opinion to digest along the way.
     
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    BLEE

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    This guy could have said all of his points with explanations in three minutes. The needle is skipping on his record. I had to stop listening to his high nosed lecturing.

    You have a guy who is apparently from the US running down the US in a hotel in another country telling the world that they suck intellectually because they haven’t come to the same conclusions as he has. In a battle in which there are no good guys no less. He’s just another opinion to digest along the way.
    I think Mr. Kortik is of Russian birth and raising, so his world view will reflect that. Agreed, opinions are like assholes... everyone has one and they all stink.
     

    myronman3

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    Lol.
    I read somewhere that the Ukrainians parked a bunch of heavy vehicles across the airfield to prevent hostile landings in the opening hours of the invasion.

    Clever.

    i’ve been out for 25 years now- so i will be the first one to tell you that my view is a bit dated. with that being said….

    the above quote is dumb. i’ve seen a whole lot of dumb; and a lot of it in video form.

    even with considering that i’ve been out of the military for since 1994; i could have planned (and executed) a whole lot of what i’ve seen. there are a few possibilities here.
    1. russia is inept = and if this is the case, russia just fucked up BIG time.
    2. piss poor planning on russia’s part = another disaster for russia.
    3. a complete lack of resolve = why even bother if this is the case? which makes me think this possibility is not the case.
    4. what we are seeing is a bunch of stuff that is not a realistic representative of what is actually happening. when i see russian paratroopers conducting a mass attack in broad daylight, i about pissed myself laughing. that alone is pure weaksauce and amateur hour. and with all the other fake shit out there, i’m inclined to think that is fake, too.

    i am no fan of the ukraine…they are eyeball deep in the corrupt shit that has gone on in this country. and i’ve been hoping Vladmir holds those responsible to account. or at the very least, remove them from power. add to that, soros’s son is backing the ukraine….and THAT tells you EVERYTHING you need to know.

    russia has a serious issue if they dont absolutely crush the ukraine. they’ll be viewed as a laughing stock instead of a military might to be feared and respected. IF, and that is a BIG IF, they are this inept, then they’ve been a paper tiger for a long damn time.

    either way this cookie crumbles, we are going to learn a lot. i am just hoping the american populace doesnt buy their bullshit and allow us to get sucked into this.
     
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