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Is something going on in Ukraine?

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So I’ll ask something I have not seen asked.


How much longer does this drag out?
 
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Russians and Chinese entered into the Gasprom and Rosneft deals in 2013 to the tune of $670 Billion for 30yr and 25yr contracts to help stabilize Oil/NG flow to China and cash flow to Russia. All of that Oil/NG comes from Sibersk, but Russia was only providing 11% of Chicom Oil/NG at the time and now they’re screwed because Haliburton and Slumberger just pulled out of Sibersk extraction operations.

Russia is so handicapped, they don’t have the technical skills or tooling to extract their own Siberian Oil/NG in extreme cold, so they have relied on the US and Canada to do it for them in the private sector. Those guys just literally pulled out.

Nasdaq: Why are Haliburton and Slumberger pulling out of Russian operations?



China and Russia are extremely weak and vulnerable in this area, even after bribing hundreds of US politicians and businessmen for decades, even with dominant control over the information networks and propaganda. Most everything that people think they know is so far from reality as to provide them with an empty deck of cards from which to stack their concepts of the world.
I don’t believe this is accurate, as far as them not having the capability, they are currently up-to-date on technology related to The oil and gas industry. These companies pulling out will just keep them from gaining anything new that the west of develops in the future . They are more than capable. Early on when they began tapping these resources they relied on western tech, but by now thy have learned what the need to know. Russia has some pretty brilliant scientists I would not underestimate their abilities.
 
US uses the usd and our economic system to crush countries and that insures dollar dominance. Good to know.
No. Other countries get into war with each other over territorial disputes dating back centuries, then their investors and other foreign investors put their money into the US where it’s safe. US government has no real control over it since we have an open system of trade and investment.

The US geography ensures dollar dominance, despite the missteps of government incompetence and treason against our own people. Most of what people think they know about all of this is built on lies and low-information corporate news retardation that has made them extremely ignorant about the world.
 
This one comment: "And this attempt to coerce Russia with sanctions has now made it very likely that the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency will show up in the dustbin of history."

I have alluded to this in the past. The US is fucking up royally by speeding up the demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Long term, there WILL be takers for everything that Russia produces. Is this short-term dustup worth losing even more ground on the dollar's world status?
oh yes, I agree. the Great Reset will destroy our fake economy and take away from you everything you own. And it is all being done deliberately.
 
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I should probably know this already, but what does the white Z stand for?
I believe they are just rapid ID markings like we used during D-Day with the invasion stripes. In the case of Russia, they have the same models of soviet -era equipment that the Ukrops are using. You need some instant way of identifying friend from foe. The multitude of different symbols did apply to the different regions, and might have just been to confuse the Ukies early on, so they did not try to counterfeit them.

In 1968, the soviets invaded Czechoslovakia and were faced with the same sort of problem - both sides fielded the same equipment. so in a similar manner, they painted white stripes on their vehicles.
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the defector suvorov talked about the 68 invasion, and how in typical soviet fashion they were told to "shoot everything without a white stripe" but of course there was not enough paint to go around, so many units went in unmarked. And ran into marked units. And they shot each other up.
 
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Your data only goes to 2018, long before the trillions we see now that have been injected. FDI is not relevant to what is being discussed. But, I'll play along with your scenario. Direct investment in the US is totally different than commodities trading. FDI is a longish term play, commodities are short term and extremely exposed to currency valuation moves. Look at your graph - it shows acquisitions, not a large investment in expansions. That should tell you that they are not purchasing to expand existing business in the US market - its a clue.

Japan tried FDI in the 80's, and everyone thought they were going to buy up the whole US. Where are they now?

Your graphs are making my point. A strong dollar is the Federal Reserve model that allows the purchase of foreign goods and services at a lower price relative to other currencies. Printing trillions in money is not moving in same direction as that goal; it will be a little while before graphs representing that stupidity comes out. Additionally, Haliburton and others will move right back in once they get concessions that they want. Oil will flow from Russia again. None of this leaving Russia for virtue signaling points is permanent.
Japanese FDI into the US in the 1980s was from Japanese businessmen who saw the structural problems in Japan and got their money out before the Japanese recession.

Here’s FDI through 2020:

fdi0721.PNG


Once you pull the plug on Oil/NG extraction, you don’t just come back in and turn it back on. As Putin continues to invade other neighboring countries, Haliburton and Slumberger aren’t going anywhere near him. This isn’t a short-term incident that people can forget about next year in the 24hr news cycle. This is the beginning of a wave of catastrophes on the planet.
 
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Japanese FDI into the US in the 1980s was from Japanese businessmen who saw the structural problems in Japan and got their money out before the Japanese recession.

Once you pull the plug on Oil/NG extraction, you don’t just come back in and turn it back on. As Putin continues to invade other neighboring countries, Haliburton and Slumberger aren’t going anywhere near him. This isn’t a short-term incident that people can forget about next year in the 24hr news cycle. This is the beginning of a wave of catastrophes on the planet.
Curious as to your experience in the oil industry. Your comments need clarification, although it has nothing to do with your original posts nor with my comment that they will return. If they don’t someone else will. I mean, unless we all go solar and wind farms very very soon.
 
Consider this: NATO has already entered the fight by sending in arms. Just because no one wants to say it out loud doesn’t mean it isn’t true. If giving aid and comfort to the enemy is considered an action against the State by us, then by extension we should be adults enough to admit that NATO is actively engaging against Russia. Guaranteed the Russians recognize it as such, though how they ultimately address it is to be seen.

we did the same thing in WW2. FDR desperately wanted to get involved in the war and Churchill openly discussed instigating another "Lusitania event" that would cause us to fall in with the Allies. So there was no mystery about what was afoot.

So we began supplying all the Allies with war material under Lend Lease....... Then we began providing destroyers to escort the convoys...... then the destroyers were told that they could fire on U-boats...... Then the U-boats shot back....... it didn't matter that the official declarations of war had not yet occurred. Long before anything was official, we were at war with the Germans.
 
No. Other countries get into war with each other over territorial disputes dating back centuries, then their investors and other foreign investors put their money into the US where it’s safe. US government has no real control over it since we have an open system of trade and investment.

The US geography ensures dollar dominance, despite the missteps of government incompetence and treason against our own people. Most of what people think they know about all of this is built on lies and low-information corporate news retardation that has made them extremely ignorant about the world.
And half the world isn't looking at this and wondering when they're the next target of economic expulsion... Your tribe is creating the fracture and the rest of us will pay. I wonder if you're not the flip side of the fed coin. Do you have graphs at the ready to show everyone otherwise? You glow.
 
US uses the usd and our economic system to crush countries and that insures dollar dominance. Good to know.
absolutely. It's been that way for a long time.

And it's not even being done for the good of you or me.
This kind of gets into my theory that they thought they would be moving through Ukraine quickly as there would be little resistance. With the markings on the vehicles, it would make it much easier to both ID and task/route units from the air as well as at 'traffic jams' where multiple battalions were traveling through at the same time. Otherwise everything just looks like a tank.

But have a V or Z on it and whoever the controller is knows that V goes west and Z goes north at this intersection.

Translated by AlexD exclusively for SouthFront

Vladimir Chirkin, March 08, 2022

The first stage of the operation…​

We underestimated the enemy in its strength of informational, ideological, psychological repulsion, they were waiting for us. Literally on the very first day, with a snap of American bloody fingers – we deprived the support of civilians and the units of the Ukrainian armed forces ready to become neutral. Millions of dollars, thousands of IT specialists, global media corporations cut off Ukraine from any objective information, stinking up our country.

Our main losses were in the first three days. Now they are rapidly diminishing, the Russian Army is no longer conducting a peacekeeping and humanitarian operation similar to the Crimean operation. The fighters received other orders, got involved, became angry, gathered, and their hopes for active support of civilians and the conscious units of the Ukrainian army were dashed.

There are few flowers and loaves, people are crushed by propaganda and lies, and terrified into insanity by the Nazis. The calculations miss another important point – almost 600 thousand Ukrainians have gone through the ATO (Anti-Terrorism Operation) zone in Donbass since 2014, today they have joined the territorial defence all over the place, many have something to fear. Especially on the wave of fake executions without trial by the ATO personnel.
 
we did the same thing in WW2. FDR desperately wanted to get involved in the war and Churchill openly discussed instigating another "Lusitania event" that would cause us to fall in with the Allies. So there was no mystery about what was afoot.

So we began supplying all the Allies with war material under Lend Lease....... Then we began providing destroyers to escort the convoys...... then the destroyers were told that they could fire on U-boats...... Then the U-boats shot back....... it didn't matter that the official declarations of war had not yet occurred. Long before anything was official, we were at war with the Germans.
That sir is an outstanding memory you got there. Great example. I had forgotten all about that little incident. I saw a documentary on that ship a decade or so ago and they actually pulled up munitions out of it.
 
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If the Poles aren't putting hardware on their border they're idiots.
Heard. Should it not be their hardware not our National Guard.

And mentions of the destroyers guarding the lusitania. It looks like those armored vehicles are guarding those trucks. I was attempting to draw a parallel there
 
Heard. Should it not be their hardware not our National Guard.

And mentions of the destroyers guarding the lusitania. It looks like those armored vehicles are guarding those trucks. I was attempting to draw a parallel there

the Lusitania was WW1. the destroyers guarding the convoys was ww2. similar provocations to create an incident, but 2 separate occurrences.
 
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Heard. Should it not be their hardware not our National Guard.

And mentions of the destroyers guarding the lusitania. It looks like those armored vehicles are guarding those trucks. I was attempting to draw a parallel there

We're allies. That's the whole point of NATO.

Considering the amount of bullshit videos and pics we've been shown it could be something completely different anyways.
 
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It looks like Poland is seriously thinking about capturing considerable part of western ukraine by military force. From historical prospective, a big part of that area used to belong to Poland, so poles may see an opportunity to get it back... Of course, Poland got to have O.K. from the U.S. And so, Biden will meet them in a couple days. Not sure if he gives his O.K. or not, but ukie situation is getting very serious and extremely dangerous very fast. It also looks like Belarus may get envolved in this situation to counterbalance potential polish move towards western ukraine.
Ukraine-growth.png


Now Kortik, I know full well that you are aware of all this, but others should note

*Russian Crimea
*the conquest of territory from Poland, Hungary, and Romania, which was never returned (territorial integrity???o_O)

Please keep in mind, that while certain disinformants are eager to blame the USSR as being predatory towards the Ukrainian SSR, look at all the territory Ukraine gained under the USSR.

Also, please note that Holodomor would have affected the areas in Green, so the areas of Western Ukraine, especially Lvov, which is the bastion of Nazism in modern Ukraine, have no claim to that atrocity. The areas in Green contain a large number of ethic Russians, and at the time also many ethnic Germans. These people were all the victims of Stalin, who never hesitated from murdering anyone -nor gave preference- based on ethnicity.
 
Heard. Should it not be their hardware not our National Guard.

And mentions of the destroyers guarding the lusitania. It looks like those armored vehicles are guarding those trucks. I was attempting to draw a parallel there

Rotational deployments as part of ERI/EDI to the region have been going on for almost the greater part of a decade. Nothing new to see here.

Much like all the heavy metal on rail transport people are noticing on the west coast... been going on for years but only now being noticed, reported and overanalyzed.
 
this is about as "neutral" and realistic of a sitrep as you are going to get. the daily French military assessment of Ukraine. The Russians are making progress. Ukie claims about Kiev are not reflected here.

Situation%20en%20Ukraine%20au%2023%20mars.jpg

Looks about right. Lot of bluster from media outlets, social media, and some politicians, but no one who is serious in the academic or foreign policy community actually thinks Ukraine is winning in the traditional sense- their military capacity is badly degraded and they are steadily losing territory. Exceeding expectations as well as winning in the information environment, but ultimately losing the war.

Although odds are on Ukraine losing, it does not look like Russia is going to come out of this well, either.
 
Tachanka!!!!!! You've returned!!!

"Hey! Machine gun cart from Kiev!
You're our Joy and our Pride!"

:LOL::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:


:

it's Chapayev and Petka.

Using the forces like the ones shown in that video - Budyonny's Cavalry Army, artillery and machine guns brought in carts, the Bolsheviks nearly conquered Poland, before being stopped at the gates of Warsaw in 1920. So we have the Poles to thank for saving whatever was left of Western Civilization at that point. If the Reds had won, Germany would have been next - already flattened by WW1 and on the brink of revolution. France was similarly exhausted, and Britain and the US may well have done too little too late. So as dopey as that video was, the Bolsheviks at that point really were a huge threat and the Poles did well.
 
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That don't look nothin like the map Fox and CNN are pushing.

Imagine everyone's surprise when Zelensky is killed and Kiev surrenders. Everyone in the west will be shocked! "But, but, we thought Ukraine was winning!"

Better yet!

Just imagine the surprise and relief of the Russian forces outside of Chernihiv, Mena and Sumy when they see that map and realize that those Ukrainian forces they've been fighting for the past 28 days don't exist according to the French!

OR
That map might just be as bad as anyone could expect when relying on the French to give sound military advice.


Just kidding of course.
The French map is bad because it paints with a broad stroke all attempted Russian advances as actual gains. So if a Russian unit pushed far inland and was overtaken, withdrew, cut off, or destroyed, that map would still have a wide swath being shown in Russian hands when the reality is far different.


Here is a better map from a pro-Kremlin source with better definition. I will caution that this source is biased towards Russia though, so take it with a grain of salt. This doesn't show some of the contested space that swaps hands regularly and again depicts the farthest extent of Russian advances.

Ukraine Military Situation Map - March 23rd - Southfront.jpg
 
it's Chapayev and Petka.

Using the forces like the ones shown in that video - Budyonny's Cavalry Army, artillery and machine guns brought in carts, the Bolsheviks nearly conquered Poland, before being stopped at the gates of Warsaw in 1920. So we have the Poles to thank for saving whatever was left of Western Civilization at that point. If the Reds had won, Germany would have been next - already flattened by WW1 and on the brink of revolution. France was similarly exhausted, and Britain and the US may well have done too little too late. So as dopey as that video was, the Bolsheviks at that point really were a huge threat and the Poles did well.

If anyone was paying close attention at that time, they would have seen the relevance and future of mobile heavy firepower in the modern tactical space.

Don't you think that image is symbolically and uniquely fitting considering the battle space that the 1st Cavalry Army was initially operating in?
 
If anyone was paying close attention at that time, they would have seen the relevance and future of mobile heavy firepower in the modern tactical space.

Don't you think that image is symbolically and uniquely fitting considering the battle space that the 1st Cavalry Army was initially operating in?
In Britain, Liddell Hart and Boney Fuller were working on the theories of modern mechanized warfare during the 20's, and of course the Germans were quick to catch on. The soviets themselves learned from their disaster and several members of the general staff, notably Tukhachevsky and Isserson developed the concept of Deep Battle, which served them well during the later stage of WW2. (but only after the USA mechanized them through Lend Lease)
 
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His problem was that he was used to being part of the best military in the entire world and fighting ill equipped, barely trained, local insurgents.
In his prior experience, there was simply always an "I win" button at the ready and the only real constraint on "winning" was how much your own politicians dictated you couldn't do.

So listened to the propaganda about the glorious Ukraine army of freedom that is utterly destroying the stupid Russian fools.

Landed and found out he was actually in the middle of a peer war more akin to WWII and neither side had a decided advantage and it was going to be one of those long brutal grinding wars of attrition and who runs out of fresh blood first.
 
In Britain, Liddell Hart and Boney Fuller were working on the theories of modern mechanized warfare during the 20's, and of course the Germans were quick to catch on. The soviets themselves learned from their disaster and several members of the general staff, notably Tukhachevsky and Isserson developed the concept of Deep Battle, which served them well during the later stage of WW2. (but only after the USA mechanized them through Lend Lease)
so was DeGaulle and he almost failed the military institute as a result. He lobbied for a German style instead of the allies way. Like all things in life, first idea and first mover are entirely different
 
His problem was that he was used to being part of the best military in the entire world and fighting ill equipped, barely trained, local insurgents.
In his prior experience, there was simply always an "I win" button at the ready and the only real constraint on "winning" was how much your own politicians dictated you couldn't do.

So listened to the propaganda about the glorious Ukraine army of freedom that is utterly destroying the stupid Russian fools.

Landed and found out he was actually in the middle of a peer war more akin to WWII and neither side had a decided advantage and it was going to be one of those long brutal grinding wars of attrition and who runs out of fresh blood first.
This is a great post sir.

This "conflict' is a real war. As you said, it's a peer war (or near peer) and that's something we, Americans, take forgranted. As many people as were killed in the Middle East by the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters, we never faced a "peer" adversary. This guy is explaining what people in WW2 went through for years.

War is awful, which is why war should be avoided !!
 
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