at least on politician has the guts to say it.
Trans are def committing shootings at Christian schools at a much higher rate than the rest of society.
From grok…
Question:
What are the odds there would be multiple transgender mass shootings specifically against Christian children compared to cisgender
Answer:
Based on available data, there have been four mass shootings (defined here as incidents with four or more victims killed or injured, excluding the shooter) at U.S. Christian-affiliated K-12 schools since 2006 that specifically targeted children:
• West Nickel Mines Amish School (2006): 10 victims (5 killed, 5 injured). Shooter was a cisgender male.
• The Covenant School (2023): 6 victims killed. Shooter was transgender (trans man).
• Abundant Life Christian School (2024): 8 victims (2 killed, 6 injured). Shooter was a cisgender female.
• Annunciation Catholic School (2025): 19 victims (2 killed, 17 injured). Shooter was transgender (trans woman).
Of these four incidents, two were carried out by transgender individuals and two by cisgender individuals.
To calculate the odds (probability) of observing multiple (at least two) such incidents by transgender shooters versus cisgender shooters, we can model this as a binomial distribution, assuming each incident is independent and the probability a shooter is transgender equals their approximate share of the U.S. population (about 1%, a conservative estimate blending adult and youth rates; actual adult rate is ~0.8% and youth 13-17 is ~3.3%, but shooters here span ages). The complementary probability (a shooter being cisgender) is 99%.
For transgender shooters (p = 0.01, n = 4 trials/incidents):
The probability of exactly k successes (transgender shooters) is given by the binomial formula:
P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k),
where C(n, k) is the combination of n things taken k at a time.
The cumulative probability of at least 2 is 1 - [P(X=0) + P(X=1)].
This yields ~0.00059, or about 0.059% (odds of roughly 1 in 1,690).
For cisgender shooters (p = 0.99, n = 4):
Using the same formula, the probability of at least 2 is ~0.999996, or about 99.9996% (odds of roughly 250,000 to 1).
In other words, observing multiple transgender shooters in these incidents is extremely unlikely if shooter gender identity were random and reflective of population proportions, while multiple cisgender shooters is virtually certain.