primers and powder pessimism

[6brshooter]

Let me say i am just a farmer, not a market insider, but i see the supply of these two commodities as being tight for the next couple years.
Right now there are the end of the world/zombie/doomsday preppers hoarding like no ones business. Then u have us shooters that fire thousands of rds a year, many thousands of rds, trying to keep the components some what stocked.. If supply doesn't kick up or demand subside in the next 6 mo then people will be out of stuff 6 mo before midterm elections the zombie/ preppers will ratchet up and gut the market completely again. Then depending on what goes down nov of 14' will signal what is/will be available. If it is a blow to gun rights then this current hard times of component unavailability will/could be the new norm.

I don't have a tin foil hat or any such conspiracy issues, just thinking aloud. I really thought by know there would be a flood of components mid summer, but since primers, powders, and quite a few bullets are unobtainable my hopes are dashed. I wish hodgdon would look at it this way and start ratcheting up/ increase production capacity. Maybe they will if this hangs on for another six mo or so. Am i bat shit crazy, hope so would sell a kidney for 10000 br2&10000br4 primers.

 

[rsplante]

The way I understand it, the manufacturers understand this to be the typical "cycle" or "wave", and since there is a lag between a decision to ramp up production and actually selling the stuff, most have made the decision not to ramp up production. They do not want to be stuck with the surplus if they are producing at max capacity and the demand drys up, which would also depress prices. Both excess stock and depressed prices would hurt the bottom line. Businesses exist to make themselves/stockholders a profit, so I understand their concern. The unknown is whether outside forces intend to purposely interfer with these cycles. Time to get out my tinfoil hat. If Eric Holder, Nancy Pelosi, et. al. continue to pursue their nefarious ways, AND there is a legitimate belief that they will experience some degree of "success", then in my opinion, we are in for hard times for a while.

I have categorized the reasons for the shortage into three areas. First is that the Govt has caused an artificial demand by buying up all available manufacturing capacity. Many, including local LEO, have questioned the need for 1.6 BILLION rounds of S&W.40 HP by the feds. The second category is panic buying, "I don't need .45 ACP, I don't even own a 1911, but there they are on the shelf, I better buy them while I can." And my third category would be speculators. These are the people lined up at Wal-Mart to buy ammo at regular prices and then they turn around and sell it at gun shows for double or triple the price.

Unfortunately, the speculators will not go away (until/if the market crashes and they get burned, but by then it won't help us anyway.) Some good news is that the House apparently passed some bill restricting DHS from purchasing vast amounts of ammo without justification. It has no chance in the Senate, but maybe that is still enough to limit the damage. Hopefully the way that retail sellers are handling the situation (restricting sales to one box per day) will have the intended effect of reducing panic buying. The other damper on that will be when the panic buyers either feel like they have enough, or run out of money. As for the speculators, we are stuck with them until the bubble bursts and they can no longer make an obscene profit off of our misery. I don't know his source of information, but a local gun store owner told me that he heard that the supply situation was supposed to ease up towards the end of the year. I hope he knows what he is talking about, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Pinecone]

I do wish that 1.6 billion round thing would dry up and go away.

The Feds did not ORDER 1.6 billion rounds. They did not even put out a bid for 1.6 billion rounds. Someone misread the request for bids. They asked for X number of rounds, deliverable in Y smaller quantities. So they put out a request to bid on supplying 1,000,000 rounds in 1,000 round lots. So they need 10,000 rounds, they order 10,000. But seeing that, someone mistakenly multiplied 1,000,000 x 1,000 and got 1 billion.

Also, the RFB was for a 5 year period.

Also, they consolidated ordering for several segments of DHS. So instead of CBP putting out an RFB, and ICE putting out a different RFB, and Secreet Service putting out a 3rd RFB, they were combined into a single source RFB.

The actual RFB quantities are no higher than previous years, if you add up the RFBs from all the different groups included in the one big one.

 

[rsplante]

And this is excluding the conspiracy types like Alex Jones,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2013/03/11/1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammo-for-homeland-security-its-time-for-a-national-conversation/</SPAN>

Homeland Security aims to buy 1.6 billion rounds of ammo - The Denver Post

http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20130215-dhs-to-buy-1-6-billion-rounds-of-ammunition</SPAN>

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/032213-649114-dhs-wont-answer-congress-on-ammunition-purchases.htm</SPAN>

Why is the Department of Homeland Security buying so many bullets? | Fox News

Obama's DHS: Drones, hollow points, and secrecy - Worldnews.com

 

[timjoebobbradley]

The way I understand it, the manufacturers understand this to be the typical "cycle" or "wave", and since there is a lag between a decision to ramp up production and actually selling the stuff, most have made the decision not to ramp up production. They do not want to be stuck with the surplus if they are producing at max capacity and the demand drys up, which would also depress prices. Both excess stock and depressed prices would hurt the bottom line. Businesses exist to make themselves/stockholders a profit, so I understand their concern. The unknown is whether outside forces intend to purposely interfer with these cycles. Time to get out my tinfoil hat. If Eric Holder, Nancy Pelosi, et. al. continue to pursue their nefarious ways, AND there is a legitimate belief that they will experience some degree of "success", then in my opinion, we are in for hard times for a while.

False.

Most manufacturers are (have) increased production.

hornady info: Product Availability - Hornady Manufacturing, Inc

 

[patrol120]

Good Lord, an IDIQ RFI is not a purchase.

 

[Pinecone]

Most manufacturers have increased production via maximizing use of existing equipment (more shifts, etc).

I don't know that any have increased production capacity with additiaonl equipment and tooling.

I can see the statement as applying to the latter.

 

[ksthomas]

Pinecone,

You won't see most of them doing this, either. Adding new employees, training them and having additional machinery to run the excess production becomes a real problem when the bubble bursts. And it will, at some point. Most manufacturers will work many overtime shifts, weekends, etc., but are hesitant to commit to major, permanent schedule or additional employee changes. Creates a real problem when you have to start laying people off, so soon after you've gotten them up to speed and properly trained as this essentially becomes money down the drain. Yeah, we've been down this road before.

 

[timjoebobbradley]

Most manufacturers have increased production via maximizing use of existing equipment (more shifts, etc).

I don't know that any have increased production capacity with additiaonl equipment and tooling.

I can see the statement as applying to the latter.

Did you read the hornady statement?

"We’ve added presses, lathes, CNC equipment, people and space."

"We are producing as much as we can; much more than last year, which was a lot more than the year before, etc. No one wants to ship more during this time than we do. "

It seems to contradict your conclusion.

 

[Pinecone]

Pinecone,

You won't see most of them doing this, either. Adding new employees, training them and having additional machinery to run the excess production becomes a real problem when the bubble bursts. And it will, at some point. Most manufacturers will work many overtime shifts, weekends, etc., but are hesitant to commit to major, permanent schedule or additional employee changes. Creates a real problem when you have to start laying people off, so soon after you've gotten them up to speed and properly trained as this essentially becomes money down the drain. Yeah, we've been down this road before.

That is what I was trying to say.

But some industries do hire temporary workers to help fill in all the hours of the day and maximize production.

 

[Pinecone]

Did you read the hornady statement?

"We’ve added presses, lathes, CNC equipment, people and space."

"We are producing as much as we can; much more than last year, which was a lot more than the year before, etc. No one wants to ship more during this time than we do. "

It seems to contradict your conclusion.

Yes, it does.

I wonder how much they increased equipment?

I suspect a lot of their equipment is very specialized and long lead times.

 

[pawprint2]

Pessimism, no need to worry. I was surprised at some of the posts, Several large producers, Australian included, outside the U.S., have started ramping up production, and adding the employees, buying the equipment etc. The sad fact is, most of our smokeless powder for small arms, is mfg'd outside the U.S., the EPA has seen to this. There are entire plants sitting in former Soviet territory, not running at all. In order for a powder to be "certified" to import in the USA, takes almost an act of congress. And in the case of ChiCom powder, it is flat out not allowed as we have an embargo against Norinco, et. al. from china, ammo/guns/etc. A change in the regulatory side of the govt. would/could quickly change the importation of ammo/powder, etc. Hoping for a change in the EPA, is like hoping to win the lottery, don't hold your breath. Nonetheless, there are new factories/existing plants doubling in size on the horizon, this can't last forever, even though this isn't a free market, there is far too much money involved, and to high a demand for the industry to just let it pass the by.

 

[CaptainCalf]

If Eric Holder, Nancy Pelosi, et. al. continue to pursue their nefarious ways, AND there is a legitimate belief that they will experience some degree of "success", then in my opinion, we are in for hard times for a while.

+1 these folks started this mess and now they need to be replaced with friendlies otherwise we will never see the end of "panic demand".

 

[redhooker]

Pinecone,

You won't see most of them doing this, either. Adding new employees, training them and having additional machinery to run the excess production becomes a real problem when the bubble bursts. And it will, at some point. Most manufacturers will work many overtime shifts, weekends, etc., but are hesitant to commit to major, permanent schedule or additional employee changes. Creates a real problem when you have to start laying people off, so soon after you've gotten them up to speed and properly trained as this essentially becomes money down the drain. Yeah, we've been down this road before.

I totally understand this outlook, but I respectfully disagree with the bubble burst theory in total. I am but 1 person in a small little corner of the country and I am surrounded by dozens of new reloaders I know personally, and a hundred or more new gun owners and enthusiasts also known personally. Not to mention new ranges opening with business "booming". There may be a slowdown in the purchases when and if things improve politically, but the new "normal" will be a higher volume than before, especially if people are not discouraged by the difficulty finding components. Keep up the great work and I am certain your company will remain at the top of the industry.

 

[Greg Langelius *]

Bear in mind that many components, powders in particular, are not domestic, and are vulnerable to UN treaties and Executive orders, effectively bypassing Congressional oversight. So much for the pessimism. How one may resolve such inequities is not a subject for my conjecture, either here or now.

Optimistically, a lot of components are still/already available, but not in the most obvious forms.

Bulk/cheap ammo, like Wolf/TulAmmo or ComBloc surplus are maybe a bit more available than our more preferred components sources. They constitute an agglomeration of primed cases, powders, and projectiles. While they are less than ideal, they are still more ideal then anything that's actually unobtainable. I have already been exploring this concept using .223/5.56, 7.62x54R, and 7.62x39 firearms and ammo for going on a year and more. The simple fact is that you need to stay ahead of the supply curve and be prepared to take an unorthodox temporary detour or two occasionally.

For example, 69 and 75gr match ,loads built in TulAmmo .223 steel cases are not doing badly, and TulAmmo steel 7.62x39 steel cases loaded with 110V-Max handloads work well from my Savage 10FCM Scout. Russian Surplus steelcase 7.62x54R loaded with TulAmmo bullets from 7.62x39 ammo provides reduced-recoil loads for my 110lb granddaughter to shoot in her 91/30. Meanwhile, my brass cases are spared the extra traffic until they become more readily available again.

Get a collet puller setup. Draw down the components on a significant scale. Then do the same sort of load development you would normally do with the 'higher quality' conventional components. Be damned certain everything is labeled with original source and load weights. I have found that often the only real difference between such bulk ammo and 'better' ammo is load specs/tolerances and a somewhat greater degree of needed cleaning effort after shooting.

At least it gives us a viable alternative until that best of all possible worlds materializes.

Greg

 

[ED_RN]

Companies are already running 24/7....
Production schedules are made in advance....look how Hornady is dealing with suspending production of product with less demand....
Remington announced a large addition to their infrastructure....like 60 million?IRC

Simply put the carpet baggers and your fellow reloaders keep making things worse....
People paying $300 for 8# of Varget, then probably being shipped illegally on top of that...
People taking advantage of their fellow reloader....WOW

People not reading the whole deal about RFP for the ammo....making it a large purchase.....

People are shooting more....more gun sales.....increased demand...

Reloaders now have been through two rough cycles....some could 94 scare about primers as a first...

People need to plan ahead....

 

[lightman]

The Remington plant near me has added shifts and overtime. The people that I know are working lots of hours. I don't know if they added more machinery. Some of us remember that this has happened before, several times infact. This time doe's seem to be worse and lasting longer. It would be a tough decision to add expensive machinery and floor space, or even employees.

It seems like things are easing up. I'm seeing components in stock at a few places. Lightman

 

[rsplante]

Bulk/cheap ammo, like Wolf/TulAmmo or ComBloc surplus are maybe a bit more available than our more preferred components sources. Greg

I understand the desperation; however, I tend to be of the Col. Jeff Cooper school of thought. I won't put anything in my rifle from a country where I wouldn't drink the water.

 

[ChemE1975]

I am seeing more components available locally as well. Even here in California. I should be clear though, it is a trickle now compared to what was a couple months ago, nothing at all.