Realistic hit % for 5.56 @ 700+ in a Mk12 curiosity

[TheGerman]

I know this is going to be all over the place as far as what people think, but wanted to see what the people who actually shoot think this should/could be.

I've been shooting a lot of 5.56 lately from a 16" MK12 Holland and a 18" Mk12Mod1 both with 10x optics (Leupold on the Holland, Nightforce on the Mod1) with 77g TMK loads that are what MK262 would be at velocity wise. Both of the guns are 3/4MOA at 100 yards with 5 shot groups and have a ton of velocity data that I have recorded via the MagnetoSpeed.

So the debate, with some guys I shoot with as well as others that shoot some form or another of scoped AR is in regards to the real effective range of the guns/caliber and the hit percentages you SHOULD be able to get that relies more on skill than anything. I'll admit, if I knew my engagement ranges were all going to be over 600 yards, I would opt to pull something different from the armory but this isn't what this is about nor is this a pissing contest; more curiosity of what others have experienced and to see if my expectations are unrealistic or not. Yes I'm sure people have gotten hits at 1k or whatever, but we're talking about realistic hit percentage that you would get if you were a very above average shooter, not just plinking and praying.

So here are 4 examples. Say you have 10 shots; mag fed, single fed, whatever. You have time to get the shot lined up, but not to the point that you can lay there all day between shots; figure, 1 shot every 10 seconds or less. Assume its with the same rifle, same 10x optic, same everything. All wind is 5-10mph with gusts that can hit 15-17mph and the first 1/3 of your shot may give you false wind readings as you are shooting from between 2 cliff walls onto an open field. From my Trimble, the distance that it lists as 'Supersonic flight ends' is at 959 yards.

Target 1

515 yards on a 6 inch plate

Target 2

735 yards on a 8 inch plate

Target 3

735 on a 10 inch plate

Target 4

868 yards on a 10 inch plate

 

[Mike_Honcho]

First shot - last shot, day in, day out, sun, rain, snow, wind, no wind / all conditions - rough guess:

#1 70%
#2 50%
#3 60%
#4 33%

 

[Deleted member 113831]

#1 40% maybe
#2 Fucked
#3 Not quite as Fucked
#4 Really Fucked

 

[Precision Underground]

I’m not sure because past 600 I can hardly see where the hell the 5.56 is hitting the steel. I see a puff of paint but can’t see where it hit. Its pretty consistent out to 850 but it’s on a 20x40 silhouettes. That’s much more forgiving than a 8 or 10 in plate.

 

[Fig]

Man, with my AR, not a MK12, but exactly like a MK12, using a 3.5 ACOG I feel like target #1 is smoked. I’d be pissed if I missed resting on a bag, and shooting way faster than once every ten seconds (every 1 or 2 seconds). I do this all the time on my home range while my bolt barrel is cooling. To me the jump beyond 600 yds is very significant.
I’m pretty much with Mike on #s 2-4. Maybe 20% on 4. I consider a match grade 5.56 to be a 600yd gun, and anything beyond that is ELR. My hit % drops like a stone beyond 600.

 

[RTH1800]

Past 600 meters it is TOUGH! Things can go really badly.
500 m it is a near certain thing.

 

[Precision Underground]

Man, with my AR, not a MK12, but exactly like a MK12, using a 3.5 ACOG I feel like target #1 is smoked. I’d be pissed if I missed resting on a bag, and shooting way faster than once every ten seconds (every 1 or 2 seconds). I do this all the time on my home range while my bolt barrel is cooling. To me the jump beyond 600 yds is very significant.
I’m pretty much with Mike on #s 2-4. Maybe 20% on 4. I consider a match grade 5.56 to be a 600yd gun, and anything beyond that is ELR. My hit % drops like a stone beyond 600.

Yea target one is toast. Target 3 is probably toast. I have no idea on the others for the reason in my other post. 10x makes 5.56 hits very hard to spot past 600 unless conditions are perfect.

 

[TheOE800]

I’ve too have noticed ~600 yards is about the limit of my skill with an AR and medium magnification. Never got around to shooting any further when I had an ATACR on top so I have no clue if more magnification helps.

 

[FatBoy]

I agree that Mike's numbers are close, maybe optimistic for me past 600. If I can see impacts clearly shot probability goes way up. If not, well it could be zeros across the board. In 15-17mph wind, I'd either move closer, get to a no-wind location (preferably down wind) or pack it up and not waste the ammo.

 

[Subwrx300]

I'll throw my .02¢ in: those targets are an RCH over 1MOA. If a rifle is shooting 10shots into 3/4moa at 100,at any distance past 250-300 I'd expect around 1 MOA or a little more dispersion due to simple factors that don't show up at 100 (bullet balance, ES/SD drop difference, mirage etc). Adding wind that that's is variable from 5-15+, each 1 MPH of wind will move bullet -+.75moa if you are always within +-1 of actual windfield throughout the entire string.

This is already a 2.5moa distribution which would be around 30% hit at best for even a 700 yard target.

My answers expectations based on Gusty condition:
1: 15%
2: 10%
3:12%
4: <5%

Basically luck of the draw for this caliber/system. I'm sure someone here could run this scenario on the AB WEZ calculator though. It would give a good approximate. It has matched my real world results several times.

 

[Niles Coyote]

100% hit expectation per 30 round mag.

 

[deersniper]

I'll throw my .02¢ in: those targets are an RCH over 1MOA. If a rifle is shooting 10shots into 3/4moa at 100,at any distance past 250-300 I'd expect around 1 MOA or a little more dispersion due to simple factors that don't show up at 100 (bullet balance, ES/SD drop difference, mirage etc). Adding wind that that's is variable from 5-15+, each 1 MPH of wind will move bullet -+.75moa if you are always within +-1 of actual windfield throughout the entire string.

This is already a 2.5moa distribution which would be around 30% hit at best for even a 700 yard target.

My answers expectations based on Gusty condition:
1: 15%
2: 10%
3:12%
4: <5%

Basically luck of the draw for this caliber/system. I'm sure someone here could run this scenario on the AB WEZ calculator though. It would give a good approximate. It has matched my real world results several times.

I agree with this. Some of the stuff you read on here seems unrealistic. Unless they are cherry picking perfect days with little/very consistent winds.

 

[Fig]

I agree. A strong, gusty wind will create total fuckery even with a heavy 5.56 pill. Still, being able to connect @ 700+ is a different world than 500, which to me is unremarkable with a match rifle.

 

[whatsupdoc]

I have taken a gas 223 out to 1000 yards in good wind conditions.
Shooting a 22" bull barrel using magtech 77 otm. They run fast between 2910 and 2960 fps through this rifle and easy sub moa all day.

Today
1000 yards 12"x24" plate could not see but 1 or 2 hits out of 10.
805 yards 10" plate 50% with 5mph wind.
788 yards 16" plate 80% with 5mph wind.
658 Yards 12" plate 90% with 5mph wind.

Calling or timing the wind is EVERYTHING.
Under calm wind conditions I am sure that someone with wind calling skill can make 800 yard hits with regularity.

 

[mgrs]

I have taken a gas 223 out to 1000 yards in good wind conditions.
Shooting a 22" bull barrel using magtech 77 otm. They run fast between 2910 and 2960 fps through this rifle and easy sub moa all day.

That's excellent and close to 200fps faster than the MK12 clones mentioned in the thread title will be running.

I'll throw my .02¢ in: those targets are an RCH over 1MOA. If a rifle is shooting 10shots into 3/4moa at 100,at any distance past 250-300 I'd expect around 1 MOA or a little more dispersion due to simple factors that don't show up at 100 (bullet balance, ES/SD drop difference, mirage etc). Adding wind that that's is variable from 5-15+, each 1 MPH of wind will move bullet -+.75moa if you are always within +-1 of actual windfield throughout the entire string.

This is already a 2.5moa distribution which would be around 30% hit at best for even a 700 yard target.

My answers expectations based on Gusty condition:
1: 15%
2: 10%
3:12%
4: <5%

Basically luck of the draw for this caliber/system. I'm sure someone here could run this scenario on the AB WEZ calculator though. It would give a good approximate. It has matched my real world results several times.

This is about my experience going after different sized plates with this caliber to 1000yards, with maybe a bit higher probability on the first target, especially in calm conditions. Double the plate size, and it would be dramatically easier. This is at sea level, and almost always windy.

That's the good part about this forum, there are a lot of very skilled shooters here judging by some of the posts in this and other related threads. I've never met any that good with a .223 in real life, but it's good to know it's possible.

I have taken a gas 223 out to 1000 yards in good wind conditions.
Shooting a 22" bull barrel using magtech 77 otm. They run fast between 2910 and 2960 fps through this rifle and easy sub moa all day.

 

[Ric O'shay]

I shot today with a buddy, and in between strings of 6.5 C.M. we shot 5.56 at paper @ 200 Yrds. I really felt the 8x magnification on my AR seemed super light.
Perhaps it is my ageing eyes. My intent has been to keep the AR light, but I feel I may wish to increase the magnification, even for closer targets than your example at say 300-600 Yrds.

 

[flyer]

I'm thinking 7, 3, 4, 2

The time pressure and wind are going to make it tough unless it's a shot you practice all the time (which would make the time pressure fake).

If they were all on the same range with the same conditions you could get better as you go along but considering the targets individually, even the first target is tough.

 

[Longshot85]

Good stuff in here

In the process of moving so my reloading is down......ordered 240 rounds of the IMI 69 gr Razor Core (deal today on midway Sept 3rd!!!) .......I know not mk262 clone but hopefully I can report back soon out of an 18 inch WOA 1:7 SPR Barrel

I have Sierra 69gr SMK bthp, 77 gr SMK bthp and 77 gr TMK to hand load with xbr 8208.......just no time or capabilities to reload

 

[308pirate]

So here are 4 examples. Say you have 10 shots; mag fed, single fed, whatever. You have time to get the shot lined up, but not to the point that you can lay there all day between shots; figure, 1 shot every 10 seconds or less. Assume its with the same rifle, same 10x optic, same everything. All wind is 5-10mph with gusts that can hit 15-17mph and the first 1/3 of your shot may give you false wind readings as you are shooting from between 2 cliff walls onto an open field. From my Trimble, the distance that it lists as 'Supersonic flight ends' is at 959 yards.

Target 1

515 yards on a 6 inch plate 100%

Target 2

735 yards on a 8 inch plate 70%

Target 3

735 on a 10 inch plate 75%

Target 4

868 yards on a 10 inch plate 50%

I'm extrapolating from my experience with an iron sigthed AR-15 National Match rifle (the archetype for the MK 12) out to 600 yards. I would want a spotting scope by my side to manage the wind.

The key to this is waiting out the gusts and shooting quickly when your condition shows up.

One shot about every 10 seconds is what you can easily do with a competent target puller in the pits.

 

[rybe390]

After shooting at 500,600,700,820, and 900 yards last weekend with my 16" DD, using Hornady 75gr ammo, I was shooting roughly the below. Keep in mind, this was shooting at 10" targets at all distances. Wind was minimal, but fishtailing lightly, so it was either NO wind or a complete miss which sucked.

500-I was pissed if I missed. 8/10 realistically here on a 10". Cold bore here.
600-Moving to around 6/10 on smaller targets. 2nd round hit.
700-This was 5/10
820-3/10
900-2/10. Had a 2nd round hit.

For your scenario outlined, man, that would be rough. Wind conditions suck, targets are pretty teeny.
1 - About 5/10. Any wind call gone wrong is a miss
2 - Probably 2/10 here. Wind is finicky, mechanical accuracy almost coming into play.
3 - Probably 3/10. Wind again, your wind scenario sucks haha
4 - 2/10 is my guess here.

Thanks for posting this, definitely a fun exercise in the realistic expectations. I shoot my 5.56 a bunch and have taken it to 1,000 with some success, and I'd be comfortable making 2nd round hits out to 800 with some certainty, and cold bores out to 600. Anything beyond that or with a higher confidence margin than what I outlined above, I'd be flat out lying.