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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

World Bank warns global economy at risk of lost decade of growth​

World Bank warns of 'lost decade'​

By Jessy Bains, Editor at LinkedIn News
The global economy could suffer a "lost decade" of economic growth as a result of the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, according to a new report from the World Bank. It forecasts that average potential output will drop to a 30-year low of 2.2% a year between 2023 and 2030 — down sharply from 3.5% during the century’s first decade. The projected slowdown is even more significant in developing economies, where growth is expected to slump to 4% a year, from 6% between 2000 and 2010.
 
Struggling EV maker Lucid said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that it plans to cut about 18% of its workforce, or roughly 1,300 employees, as part of a larger restructuring to reduce costs as it works to ramp up production of its Air luxury sedan.

 
Airlines are in the "squeeze box". Paying higher wages and not getting anything for it. The cuts are coming and will effect those needing a flight rather than a road trip by car. The recession is taking hold.
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Airlines are in the "squeeze box". Paying higher wages and not getting anything for it. The cuts are coming and will effect those needing a flight rather than a road trip by car. The recession is taking hold.
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More “company towns” in the future. Or work camps of several thousand right next to a town like the big dam project in BC right now.
 
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Airlines are in the "squeeze box". Paying higher wages and not getting anything for it. The cuts are coming and will effect those needing a flight rather than a road trip by car. The recession is taking hold.
_______________

Is it bad that I want them to mostly go bankrupt and not get bailed out?

They didn't learn their lesson the last few times, and all they seem to have managed to do was to make travel a us VS them ordeal.
 
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A good sign.... but, just government generated numbers.
Initial filings for unemployment insurance ticked higher last week but remained generally low in a tight labor market.
Jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate, the Labor Department reported Thursday.


 
Virgin Orbit
is ceasing operations “for the foreseeable future” after failing to secure a funding lifeline, CEO Dan Hart told employees during an all-hands meeting on Thursday afternoon, and will layoff about 90% of its workforce.
“Unfortunately we’ve not been able to secure the funding to provide a clear path for this company,” Hart said, according to audio of the 5 p.m. ET meeting obtained by CNBC.
Domino 2.jpg
 
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Deja Vu...... This happened in all previous recessions.
Pay home loan with a credit card.... Amazing
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Saving up for a down payment and closing costs is a major hurdle on the path to homeownership. The new credit card from mortgage lender Rocket Companies aims to help homebuyers eliminate it.
The Rocket Visa Signature Card earns 5X points on everything you buy and allows cardholders to redeem rewards on closing costs and down payments with Rocket Mortgage, as well as homeowners who have mortgages serviced by Rocket Mortgage to pay down their home loans.
 
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I wonder how much he got paid to say this:
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday that he’s still searching for the first sign of a recession, even though it’s all anyone seems to be talking about.
“Maybe the recession’s coming; maybe the credit crunch is right upon us,” Cramer said. “But until then, I think it’s pretty invisible.”

 
Wishful thinking..

ORLANDO, Florida, March 29 (Reuters) – U.S. money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s, a red flag for the economy and financial markets.
Money supply has now been shrinking year-on-year since December, an unprecedented development in modern times that should make investors sit up and take notice – growth, asset prices and inflation could all weaken.
It is largely a consequence of the reversal of the liquidity generated by massive post-pandemic fiscal and monetary stimulus, the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening, falling bank deposits, and weak demand for and provision of credit.
All else equal, it is a sign the Fed has no need to raise interest rates further. Given the lag of one to two years between money supply changes and the impact on asset prices and inflation, it may even be a sign that the U.S. central bank should be cutting rates.
 
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McDonald's Corp is temporarily closing its U.S. offices this week as it prepares to inform corporate employees about layoffs undertaken by the fast food giant as part of a broader company restructuring, the Wall Street Journal reported.
McDonald's said in an internal email last week to U.S. employees and some international staff that they should work from home from Monday through Wednesday, so it can deliver staffing decisions virtually, the report said.

 
Tightening
Google’s finance chief Ruth Porat recently said in a rare companywide email that the company is making cuts to employee services.
“These are big, multi-year efforts,” Porat said in a Friday email titled: “Our company-wide OKR on durable savings.” Elements of the email were previously reported by The Wall Street Journal.
In separate documents viewed by CNBC, Google said it’s cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees.
 
WASHINGTON, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity slumped in March to the lowest level in nearly three years as new orders plunged, and analysts said activity could decline further due to tighter credit conditions.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey on Monday showed all subcomponents of its manufacturing PMI below the 50 threshold for the first time since 2009. Some economists said this suggested a recession was around the corner, while others said much would depend on the services sector, whose PMI remains consistent with a growing economy.


 
Here is a glimpse into the rest of 2023. No different than a home owner walking away from a house that is financially "under water". The oil crisis of the 80's, the S&L Crash and the Great Recession all saw the choice to step away rather than to financially bail out a failing operation...... Deja Vu
We will see this repeated many times as the recession takes hold.
__________________.

Virgin Orbit on Tuesday filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. after failing to secure a funding lifeline.
The California-based satellite launch company lodged the filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the District of Delaware and is looking to sell its assets.
It comes after CNBC obtained audio of Virgin Orbit CEO Dan Hart telling employees during an all-hands meeting last week that the company was ceasing operations “for the foreseeable future.” The firm also said it would lay off nearly all of its workforce.


 
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I think we do have large swaths of rare earth metals, but they are locked up in protected areas and are national parks and such. I think we could probably make do with what we have here or at least trade for what we need.

Actually they just found a craploads in a spot in West Texas that would cover quite a bit.

I know an executive at Rio Tinto. The US has major stocks of everything. But the permitting process or outright bans make it nearly impossible to mine anything. He calls it the the "deindustrialization of the USA"

And it is not just the mines, but the mills, and the machining and all the heavy industry. The whole supply chain to get things to market.

Local politicians and state level laws also get in the way and have caused it to be nearly impossible to upgrade or make new plants in many areas. They will get approval from the US, then have a local city not give them the permit. Catch 22.

yes, this stuff does cause some damage, but it can be mitigated. But that does not occur in most of the world and the result is mass pollution. he says it would be better to do it here and mitigate it than mine it elsewhere. They would much prefer to do it right and do it here, but the hatred from the left and all the issues drives them offshore.

And the supply chain follows. We end up importing finished goods as a result.
 
Tightening
Google’s finance chief Ruth Porat recently said in a rare companywide email that the company is making cuts to employee services.
“These are big, multi-year efforts,” Porat said in a Friday email titled: “Our company-wide OKR on durable savings.” Elements of the email were previously reported by The Wall Street Journal.
In separate documents viewed by CNBC, Google said it’s cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees.

Google depends on its data centers. That is energy and raw materials dependent. And those systems must be mostly replaced every 5-7 years. They have an increasing cost to scale issue now.

And lots of people are jumping in to cloud with newer and much more efficient systems engineered rather than integrated.
 
$4-$5 gas on the east coast will cause the next crash.
Your comment from 14 months ago....
No one had a crystal ball, but we all had some "gut feelings".
The FED's are attempting a soft landing.
I warned that they were stringing the crash out so "We the People" would use up our resources attempting to stay afloat, financially.
Inflation has not been tamed, banks went broke, Biden drained the Strategic Oil Reserves, America is sending billions of $$$ to Ukraine
The "Perfect Storm" has formed over the past year as our enemies watched and American's buried their heads in the sand.
OPEC waited patiently, Russia oil is flowing freely to our enemies
Now, the price of WTI oil has spiked to $81 / bbl and Brent Crude is $85.50 / bbl.

Bigfatcock prediction is moving closer by the day.​

 
Your comment from 14 months ago....
No one had a crystal ball, but we all had some "gut feelings".
The FED's are attempting a soft landing.
I warned that they were stringing the crash out so "We the People" would use up our resources attempting to stay afloat, financially.
Inflation has not been tamed, banks went broke, Biden drained the Strategic Oil Reserves, America is sending billions of $$$ to Ukraine
The "Perfect Storm" has formed over the past year as our enemies watched and American's buried their heads in the sand.
OPEC waited patiently, Russia oil is flowing freely to our enemies
Now, the price of WTI oil has spiked to $81 / bbl and Brent Crude is $85.50 / bbl.

Bigfatcock prediction is moving closer by the day.​


It has to be for a more prolonged period. We saw it briefly last year, but potato actually did a half decent job of curtailing it.

Once we hit $4-$5 per gallon for 87 on the east coast for a prolonged period, the dominoes will fall.

Patiently waiting for a like new 2020-2023 F-250 for pennies on the dollar.
 
It has to be for a more prolonged period. We saw it briefly last year, but potato actually did a half decent job of curtailing it.

Once we hit $4-$5 per gallon for 87 on the east coast for a prolonged period, the dominoes will fall.

Patiently waiting for a like new 2020-2023 F-250 for pennies on the dollar.
by depleting our reserves…………..really?
 
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by depleting our reserves…………..really?

I mean, the goal was to drop prices at the pump. That actually happened in real life. So in that context it was successful.

Depleting the reserves was a terrible idea, but that’s a topic on its own.
 
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A "timely" report. chocked full of interesting tidbits of information.
A reader can almost spin this info to be what ever he want's it to be.
Living in some interesting times.

Annual pay rose at a 6.9% rate in March, down from 7.2% in February, according to the firm’s calculations.
“Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down.”

Job growth was almost evenly split between services and goods-producing firms, an unusual occurrence.
 
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The final line in this statement "tells the tale".
Big companies will only keep a skeleton crew in the warehouse. They are rolling the dice that inflation will continue for the remainder of 2023. That inflation of their warehoused merchandise will more than pay the cost / rent of their warehouse. Some smart CEO's bought warehouses and set up a shill company to rent the warehouse back to the company at a inflated price.
The squeeze is on... A game of chicken..... No tap out.... No refund.
________________________________

Bloated warehouse inventories are an expensive pressure eating away at the bottom line of many companies, and for many, the excess supply and associated costs of storage won’t abate this year, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey.
“We don’t expect significant decreases in inventory levels within our network in 2023,” said Paul Harris, vice president of operations for WarehouseQuote. “Several of our manufacturing clients are experiencing dead/bloated inventory challenges due to over-ordering in the container grid-lock from prior quarters.
A majority have elected to keep the inventory on hand and are opposed to liquidating.
 
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Intake: That’s the title of a research piece on Edmunds.com that chronicles the frankly startling climb in car prices over the past five years. According to Edmunds, just 0.3 percent of new vehicles sold last month were $20,000 or less, compared to 8 percent five years ago; 4 percent of new vehicles sold were $25,000 or less, compared to 24 percent five years ago, and 17 percent of new vehicles sold were under $30,000 compared to 44 percent five years ago.

According to Edmunds data, the average transaction price for a new vehicle was $47,713 in March 2023, while five years ago, the average new-vehicle transaction price was $35,794, which translates to a 33 percent jump. We’re definitely paying more, and trucks and bigger SUVs are the main reason. Last March, 17 percent of vehicles sold were $60,000-plus, compared to 6 percent five years ago. And 10 percent of vehicles sold were $70,000-plus, compared to 3 percent five years ago. Trucks have made a startling jump: 50 percent of full-size trucks sold were over $60,000, compared to 5 percent five years ago.

Exhaust: Edmunds’ prediction: “Now that low rates are no longer available to enable higher-dollar purchases, demand will grow for lower-priced vehicles. American car shoppers may not have the same enthusiasm for them as much as their bigger, flashier counterparts—but they will find that these options are what’s actually financially feasible in today’s credit environment.” – SCS
 
Intake: That’s the title of a research piece on Edmunds.com that chronicles the frankly startling climb in car prices over the past five years. According to Edmunds, just 0.3 percent of new vehicles sold last month were $20,000 or less, compared to 8 percent five years ago; 4 percent of new vehicles sold were $25,000 or less, compared to 24 percent five years ago, and 17 percent of new vehicles sold were under $30,000 compared to 44 percent five years ago.

According to Edmunds data, the average transaction price for a new vehicle was $47,713 in March 2023, while five years ago, the average new-vehicle transaction price was $35,794, which translates to a 33 percent jump. We’re definitely paying more, and trucks and bigger SUVs are the main reason. Last March, 17 percent of vehicles sold were $60,000-plus, compared to 6 percent five years ago. And 10 percent of vehicles sold were $70,000-plus, compared to 3 percent five years ago. Trucks have made a startling jump: 50 percent of full-size trucks sold were over $60,000, compared to 5 percent five years ago.

Exhaust: Edmunds’ prediction: “Now that low rates are no longer available to enable higher-dollar purchases, demand will grow for lower-priced vehicles. American car shoppers may not have the same enthusiasm for them as much as their bigger, flashier counterparts—but they will find that these options are what’s actually financially feasible in today’s credit environment.” – SCS
All Elon has to do now is build and sell a "Tesla 'Round Town EV"..... 20 miles before needing a charge.
The old people are being herded to the assisted living homes in the big cities...
Handwriting on the walls.
 
Experts also say "low unemployment" when actually we have an economy impacted by "basic income" type largesse that allows a significant percentage of our population to stay home while drawing multiple streams of government "help".
 
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Experts also say "low unemployment" when actually we have an economy impacted by "basic income" type largesse that allows a significant percentage of our population to stay home while drawing multiple streams of government "help".
Correct. But don't forget that with the raising of interest rates the goal is to cool off the economy (however is it being defined), and that requires unemployment to decrease the spending power. The target for unemployment right now is higher than their original advertised target. That government "help" only makes their job harder, but I suspect they are using it to keep poll numbers up for the politicians, not cooling off the economy. Who's left to decrease the purchasing power? The tax paying middle class.
 
Experts also say "low unemployment" when actually we have an economy impacted by "basic income" type largesse that allows a significant percentage of our population to stay home while drawing multiple streams of government "help".
I see the "Expert's" as a group who will never publicize the reason America is in this predicament is because the Government printed and handed out way too much free money for the situation it was in. They have nothing to show for the Billions $ unaccounted for.
It is snowballing every day and they want to take credit for slowing inflation. Saving America from the Boogey Man they created.

"Hero syndrome"
The Hero Syndrome 2
INTRODUCTION
Hero, a word we all associate with accolades of praise upon an individual who has done a
selfless or exemplary act. A word defined by dictionary standards as: A person noted for feats
of courage or nobility of purpose, especially one who has risked or sacrificed his or her life. (The
American Heritage College Dictionary, Third Edition)
Syndrome, a word we usually associate with a negative connotation, almost as if it were a
contagious disease. A word defined by dictionary standards as: A group of symptoms that
collectively indicate or characterize a disease or another abnormal condition. A complex of
symptoms indicating the existence of an undesirable condition or quality. A distinctive or
characteristic pattern of behavior. (The American Heritage College Dictionary, Third Edition)
The pairing of these two words to describe a condition known in the main stream media as
“The Hero Syndrome” brings rise to a variety of pre-conceived notions as to the origins, facts,
myths, and ultimately, the reality of what this disorder encompasses. This paper will delve into
the history, current trends, investigative practices, (or lack thereof), and the detriment to the
law enforcement profession when occurrences of this nature come to light. I hope to also bring
stark awareness to law enforcement managers who “look the other way” and do not readily
and aggressively deal with this problem head on.
BACKGROUND
The so called Hero Syndrome is not actually a syndrome at all. Having not been duly
recognized by the American Academy of Psychiatry as a true mental disorder with definitive
research studies to back up the title of “syndrome,” then we are left with identifying this
disorder at its’ face value. Carl Gustav Jung, noted Swiss psychiatrist and founder of analytical
psychology, found that the phenomenon of fragmented identity can result in what he referred
to as “complexes.” (Encyclopedia Britannica, 2014) There are various categories of complexes,
with each being rooted in a particular archetype or more easily understood, a pattern
 
Correct. But don't forget that with the raising of interest rates the goal is to cool off the economy (however is it being defined), and that requires unemployment to decrease the spending power. The target for unemployment right now is higher than their original advertised target. That government "help" only makes their job harder, but I suspect they are using it to keep poll numbers up for the politicians, not cooling off the economy. Who's left to decrease the purchasing power? The tax paying middle class.
7 - 8 years ago the so called "Experts" were betting their farm that interest rates could never be raised because - "The US Government could not service the debt with a higher interest rate". One more theory that has been proven wrong.
The US Government / FED Reserve are, today, helpless to lower interest rates.
So, they spew propaganda.
 
7 - 8 years ago the so called "Experts" were betting their farm that interest rates could never be raised because - "The US Government could not service the debt with a higher interest rate". One more theory that has been proven wrong.
The US Government / FED Reserve are, today, helpless to lower interest rates.
You could argue that they can't really raise it much more... it's already teetering. They are stuck. Printing more money is their only solution, then use government money to give everyone welfare when inflation continues to crush everybody.
 
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You could argue that they can't really raise it much more... it's already teetering. They are stuck. Printing more money is their only solution, then use government money to give everyone welfare when inflation continues to crush everybody.
After reading your thoughts... I visualize the Titanic crew rearranging the deck chairs as the band plays on.
 
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Thursday that he’s still searching for the first sign of a recession, even though it’s all anyone seems to be talking about.
“Maybe the recession’s coming; maybe the credit crunch is right upon us,” Cramer said. “But until then, I think it’s pretty invisible.”

Biden shaking hands with recession

1681350704858.png


Even his senile diaper shitting self can see it
 
Jerome Powell of the FED reserve is blaming the recession on the banks.
Jerome sat on his ass 3 years ago and did nothing. Typical of a politician, point the finger and blaming other's for his incompetence.
"We the People" will suffer.
 
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Since early 2022, when the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, US stocks have dropped about 15% as central banks have jacked up borrowing costs. But Grantham sees much steeper declines on the horizon.
The “best we can hope for,” he said, is a fall of about 27% from current levels, while the worst-case scenario would see a plunge of more than 50%. The low point might not arrive until “deep into next year,” he added.

 
Since early 2022, when the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, US stocks have dropped about 15% as central banks have jacked up borrowing costs. But Grantham sees much steeper declines on the horizon.
The “best we can hope for,” he said, is a fall of about 27% from current levels, while the worst-case scenario would see a plunge of more than 50%. The low point might not arrive until “deep into next year,” he added.

Don't tell the investors.. DOW is on a tear and pushing back towards that all time high.
 
Don't tell the investors.. DOW is on a tear and pushing back towards that all time high.
OK..... The "DOW" is one of the most misleading financial indicators. A bushel basket of companies where when one companies fails. another healthy company takes it's place. The cycle goes on and on and no one questions the validity of it.
 
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Janet's plan is full of hope. Take a 5 gallon bucket of "hope / may" to the grocery store and see if it will buy a loaf of bread.

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
 
Janet's plan is full of hope. Take a 5 gallon bucket of "hope / may" to the grocery store and see if it will buy a loaf of bread.

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
No she is correct. If they have any sense about them they will be more judicious in lending out depositors money given the recent events. Whether or not they have this sense is up to each bank.
 
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Amid persistent inflation, higher interest rates and recession worries, Americans have never been more negative about the economy, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
A record 69% of the public holds negative views about the economy both now and in the future, the highest percentage in the survey’s 17-year history.
The survey of 1,000 people nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, found that about two-thirds of Americans say their wages are falling behind inflation, and two-thirds say the nation is headed for recession or already in one.
The fallout from these negative views is hitting President Joe Biden’s approval rating.

Train Wreck 3.jpg

 
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Under generally accepted accounting principles, Blackstone reported net income of just $211 million, down from $2.5 billion in the prior year, owing to the drop in asset sales as well as a decline in the value of its assets.
 
Emergency Lending..... AKA ..... Bailout's

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve emergency lending to banks in the wake of last month’s financial sector troubles remains high and increased modestly in the latest week, according to data released on Thursday by the Federal Reserve.
The institution reported that borrowing via three programs aimed at supporting banks moved to $316.5 billion as of Wednesday, from $312 billion on April 12. While the overall sum remains very large and dramatically outstrips lending seen during the peak of the financial crisis, it has been easing over recent weeks after hitting a peak of $343.7 billion on March 22, in the wake of several high profile bank failures.