Re: SDs and ES
Your true ES is likely close to 6 times the SD, and perhaps more, which one would confirm by shooting a lot of rounds over the chronograph - which, realistically, few shooters are ever going to do.
Some factors which contribute to variations in muzzle velocity will increase the velocity. Some will contribute to decreases in muzzle velocity. Once in a while, those factors will all combine in one direction, which we might call "a flyer".
It's going to happen.
It may be useful to bear in mind that about two-thirds of the velocities will be within one SD of the mean. Another 27 percent or so will be between one and two SDs, and the rest will be greater than two SDs from the mean.
If your muzzle velocity averages 2600, and the true SD is 10, that means that a big chunk of those rounds will be greater than 2610 or less than 2590, and some will be greater than 2620 or less than 2580. Some of that latter group may be substantially away from the mean velocity.
That's the nature of the beast. Variations happen.
And all of that assumes that you can trust your chronograph numbers, which is a whole other subject.
We'd like to believe we can really predict based upon what we can measure. That belief has limitations.