Re: shooting over water
At 1200-1300yd, a discrepancy of 2.25MOA is nearly negligible. IMHO, it falls within the expected dispersion at such distances.
On might reasonably expect relative humidity over the water to be elevated, resulting in decreased overall air column density, decreasing flight duration and contributing to a slightly higher POI. I'm assuming that the over-water passage constitutes a significant portion of the trajectory.
One can also expect significant water surface area to contribute to thermal column activity, with consequent horizontal airflow patterns. The more sunlight is present, and has been present, the more pronounced this effect becomes. Water and land absorb and radiate solar thermal energy differently, resulting in vertical airflows. Between their epicenters, air flows horizontally to maintain pressure equilibrium, but the temperatures of the ascending and descending columns results in air density variance. These variances alter flight times, and consequently result in vertical displacements of the POI.
While humidity is usually written off, increased distances multiply minor effects, and the thermal activity could be reasonably expected to have a more significant effect than the humidity.
Greg