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The Economy Trend

Hobo Hilton

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Minuteman
Jun 4, 2011
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Pacific Northwest
Anyone else seeing this trend?
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In just eight weeks, more than 36 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance. The US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April — the highest level since the Great Depression.
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Taco Bell, part of the Yum Brands Inc. portfolio, said Thursday that it will hire 30,000 workers this summer. The roles include existing job openings as well as those that have been created by the COVID-19 pandemic, including positions tied to drive-thru service, curbside pickup and to managing delivery. Taco Bell and its franchisees are providing workers with gear like masks and gloves and taking other safety and sanitizing precautions.
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Question: How much longer before this becomes a serious concern to you guys here on the Hide?

Hobo

 
It is a serious short term concern. Fortunately, anyone dumb enough to believe in the Coronavirus as a deadly threat doesn't have a long life expectancy. Give it 8 months and things will be back to normal once people realize it's not possible to fit 30 kids 6 feet apart in a 30x30 classroom, and the idiots wearing masks while driving alone in their car start wearing blindfolds while driving so the COVID can't enter through their eye sockets.
 
Question: How much longer before this becomes a serious concern to you guys here on the Hide?

About eight weeks ago. Well, more like six months ago, because the Fed's intervention back in Nov. 19 was a pretty strong warning sign.

"The best economy ever" is a very fragile mechanism.
 
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When it comes to distancing in schools I expect that classes may be split with half the kids coming in MWF and the other half TuTh this allows the schools to keep all the money they are getting while only having to provide half the education they are being paid for.
 
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Who wants to place bets that voting in November will be "by mail only"?

Mail can also carry diseases, maybe voting will be online only?

If so, who wants to bet the Dems magically wind up with more votes?

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
 
When it comes to distancing in schools I expect that classes may be split with half the kids coming in MWF and the other half TuTh this allows the schools to keep all the money they are getting while only having to provide half the education they are being paid for.

Half-educated citizens sounds like lots of future Dems.
 
It is a serious short term concern. Fortunately, anyone dumb enough to believe in the Coronavirus as a deadly threat doesn't have a long life expectancy. Give it 8 months and things will be back to normal once people realize it's not possible to fit 30 kids 6 feet apart in a 30x30 classroom, and the idiots wearing masks while driving alone in their car start wearing blindfolds while driving so the COVID can't enter through their eye sockets.
I say November 4th is when shit with the COVID 19 is over. Once Trump gets re-elected they won't be able to keep using the COVID 19 to try and beat him. I think people will see this before the election as Rep. Governors have opened their states showing that the economy needs to moving and this will force the Dems to re-open their states; showing the fence sitters the this was all a ploy. "Never let a crisis go to waste".
 
To bring this thread back to the economy, anyone not buying into the energy industry right now is nuts. Oil and gas is going to skyrocket as these "guidelines" suggest less mass transit. People are going to figure that out once they figure out asses from elbows in this phase of confusion.
 
About eight weeks ago. Well, more like six months ago, because the Fed's intervention back in Nov. 19 was a pretty strong warning sign.

"The best economy ever" is a very fragile mechanism.
No economy can flourish with 1 out of 8 people who want to work not being able to because the government took away their jobs.
 
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Question: How much longer before this becomes a serious concern to you guys here on the Hide?

Are you seeing this as part of the 'new normal' where people are laid off from higher paying jobs and forced into lower paying jobs?

Just another way to lower the standard of living in America for millions

That is what I see. Don't sit around and collect unemployment or wait for your good job to come back, go take a jab at Taco Bell temporarily wink wink until your old better job comes back

Feels like part of the plan to destroy America
 
Are you seeing this as part of the 'new normal' where people are laid off from higher paying jobs and forced into lower paying jobs?

Just another way to lower the standard of living in America for millions

That is what I see. Don't sit around and collect unemployment or wait for your good job to come back, go take a jab at Taco Bell temporarily wink wink until your old better job comes back

Feels like part of the plan to destroy America
This was and is a direct attack on the middle class. Remember the left and globalist assholes hates the middle class.
 
To bring this thread back to the economy, anyone not buying into the energy industry right now is nuts. Oil and gas is going to skyrocket as these "guidelines" suggest less mass transit. People are going to figure that out once they figure out asses from elbows in this phase of confusion.
At the same time, telecommuting is now a permanent thing for many still at work, and manufacturing is way down. Less carpooling and bussing is not going to make near enough of a dent to override that, especially with today’s fuel efficiency in autos. Then there is the airline industry, which is a huge chunk of fuel consumption, which is basically a small fraction of its former self.
 
At the same time, telecommuting is now a permanent thing for many still at work, and manufacturing is way down. Less carpooling and bussing is not going to make near enough of a dent to override that, especially with today’s fuel efficiency in autos. Then there is the airline industry, which is a huge chunk of fuel consumption, which is basically a small fraction of its former self.

Yep - all of those things are significant demand offsets.

Plus, the demand increase due to individual vehicle use in big cities will be capped by the economics of vehicle ownership and the lack of surface road capacity. It's not we're going to take 5 million daily riders off the NYC subway system and drop them into Suburbans and F-150s.

Gasoline is only about 15% of US energy consumption. Go crank up automobile use by 10% in some hypothetical situation, and it's still less of a bump than one might think.

I'm thinking taco bell might win the restaurant wars of the early 21st century and corner the market.

Solid Demolition Man reference (y) 2032 isn't that far away!
 
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Printing this much money can't be good.
This is a big swing toward socialism.
Who's going back to work for minimum wage when they can sit on their backside for $60k a year.
 
No economy can flourish with 1 out of 8 people who want to work not being able to because the government took away their jobs.

Very few people are "non-essential" - people are choosing to sit on their lazy asses and be lazy because the Gov is paying them more to sit on their ass than to go to work. These jackass companies are confusing "guidelines" for laws for fear of being labelled an asshole for not "caring about our safety and feelings".

Take away the Gov assistance and people will be dying to go back to work when they get hungry, which is the natural way to motivate someone to work in the first place.
 
Printing this much money can't be good.
This is a big swing toward socialism.
Who's going back to work for minimum wage when they can sit on their backside for $60k a year.
When I'm "connecting the dots"... I'm hearing from a few people (laid off) who are saying "I'm making more money now than when I was working"... The term Pay the Piper comes to mind.... Same as those who are making a choice not to pay their mortgage. May be a good time to invest in the Repossession industry.
 
Very few people are "non-essential" - people are choosing to sit on their lazy asses and be lazy because the Gov is paying them more to sit on their ass than to go to work. These jackass companies are confusing "guidelines" for laws for fear of being labelled an asshole for not "caring about our safety and feelings".

Take away the Gov assistance and people will be dying to go back to work when they get hungry, which is the natural way to motivate someone to work in the first place.
Notice McConnell's statements today about next bill not containing the enhanced benefits Pelosi wants to keep going until January?
 
Notice McConnell's statements today about next bill not containing the enhanced benefits Pelosi wants to keep going until January?

I started listening to music a few years ago, stopped watching the morning news. Mood greatly improved. I did read a short article though on what he said today - I hope he follows through. He also hit the nail on the head with the "Vulture trial lawyers" - making a law that no one can sue someone for supposedly catching a germ at their house would clear up alot of concerns.
 
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I started listening to music a few years ago, stopped watching the morning news. Mood greatly improved. I did read a short article though on what he said today - I hope he follows through. He also hit the nail on the head with the "Vulture trial lawyers" - making a law that no one can sue someone for supposedly catching a germ at their house would clear up alot of concerns.
I hear you I cut out random cable news once the Russia collusion hoax started up, but I do have CNBC and Fox Business on all day and catch snips which mingle with financial news.
 
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I haven't watched the news for years. If I could just stay away from the Bear Pit, my life would be serene. ;)
 
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We added another 2.4 million to the unemployment rolls this week - bringing us to about 39 million total - and the market is still within a percent or two of the year-ago numbers. So I guess everything is fine? Everything is fine!
 
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When the Fed is busy with $4 trillion buying the market is fake.
We added another 2.4 million to the unemployment rolls this week - bringing us to about 39 million total - and the market is still within a percent or two of the year-ago numbers. So I guess everything is fine? Everything is fine!
 
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To be fair, the market has always been fake!
I'd agree back to 2009 anyway....we are over a decade deep into a complete currency ex nihilo fantasy and when it ends nobody knows for sure, but the asset bubble is definitely going to implode one day. Until then it's casino time love it hate it or indifferent still a great place to get monthly return on investible assets. If one is smart and ballsy enough to engage in momentum/swing trades and shorts the returns can be exponentially freaky. I know 2 guys who have way bigger nuts and are much smarter than I'll ever be that have absolutely destroyed it this year it's staggering their returns. One has made more on trades in the last 90 days after short term cap gains than their 2019 annual income.....think on that for a second. I've also seen him get his clock cleaned a few times on horrible risky bets, but he put his money where his mouth is back in Feb and called his shot.....and hit it out of the park. There is still plenty of hurt coming in asset prices this year so the doomers will get plenty of time to gloat in here, but I believe all time highs will be here inside of 12 months due to the 'fake' currency floated into the credit markets primarily. It takes quite a while for this currency to matriculate and right now the credit rally we are seeing in the bond market is the faith investors have that the Fed is there as a backstop. They have not been buying a lot of debt.....yet...they will if they have to, but the moves upward are mostly founded on the notion they will if liquidity dries up like it did in March. Not unlike 2008-9 indexes trended downward for months after QE and easing b/f stabilization reached every sector. Hold on to nuts it's gonna be a wild ride.
 
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I will go with FDR's Depression phrase.... "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself"... this is in the common man's hands.... if we succumb to the Dim view of how to destroy the country, and never fully grasp our own opportunities to right the ship, then it will be a self fulfilling prophesy... Go out and prosper with a vengeance... and that goes for business as well... full steam ahead, no holding back... if we do get cautious with investing on either end, it will be a slow go.... but... if the throttle is opened up to put this economy back on the air, it will be there in short order again...
 
I will go with FDR's Depression phrase.... "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself"... this is in the common man's hands.... if we succumb to the Dim view of how to destroy the country, and never fully grasp our own opportunities to right the ship, then it will be a self fulfilling prophesy... Go out and prosper with a vengeance... and that goes for business as well... full steam ahead, no holding back... if we do get cautious with investing on either end, it will be a slow go.... but... if the throttle is opened up to put this economy back on the air, it will be there in short order again...
I agree completely. Our economy is not what I'd like it to be, but it's still by far the best flavor currency and model on the planet and I believe America is going to dig itself out of this debacle in spite of progressives desires. It ain't perfect, but I've got my shoulders squared up on the bumper pushing as hard as I can.
 
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I have always seen Capitalism as a trend that has been successful for hundreds of years now. It's exactly like a Monopoly game and it has a beginning and an end. We are at the end of the Game. All of the wealth, property, cash, and options are in the hands of one player and the rest will be liquidated to stay in the game.

Capitalism has reached the end of the Game so let's reset the board and have another game. The question is who gets to pick the next game.....

VooDoo
 
I have always seen Capitalism as a trend that has been successful for hundreds of years now. It's exactly like a Monopoly game and it has a beginning and an end. We are at the end of the Game. All of the wealth, property, cash, and options are in the hands of one player and the rest will be liquidated to stay in the game.

Capitalism has reached the end of the Game so let's reset the board and have another game. The question is who gets to pick the next game.....

VooDoo
You keep saying this. Why don't you tell us?
 
There is still plenty of hurt coming in asset prices this year so the doomers will get plenty of time to gloat in here, but I believe all time highs will be here inside of 12 months due to the 'fake' currency floated into the credit markets primarily.

At this point, I think it's fair to ask whether the highs will come before the hurt or the other way around. The first case will cause some short-term despair but will also create some great buying opportunities and will leave even the buy-and-hold crowd in a good position. The latter case is not nearly as much fun.
 
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At this point, I think it's fair to ask whether the highs will come before the hurt or the other way around. The first case will cause some short-term despair but will also create some great buying opportunities and will leave even the buy-and-hold crowd in a good position. The latter case is not nearly as much fun.
what kind of timeline are you looking at? If it's along infinity yes I think we will definitely hit new highs and if you go out far enough I think you will ultimately see the demise of all sovereign currencies on the planet. I think by now you know where my school of thought is the end of days is not upon us fighting off zombies and criminals at the driveway just yet. I am also fully expecting another 10 to 20% pullback this summer, but I don't think you will see near the volume or velocity of the Forced margin calls and desperation for cash. . There are far more people looking to get a return on their investible assets than Those who are willing to put it in a coffee can in the backyard
 
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Very few people are "non-essential" - people are choosing to sit on their lazy asses and be lazy because the Gov is paying them more to sit on their ass than to go to work. These jackass companies are confusing "guidelines" for laws for fear of being labelled an asshole for not "caring about our safety and feelings".

Take away the Gov assistance and people will be dying to go back to work when they get hungry, which is the natural way to motivate someone to work in the first place.

I'm all for unemployment. But it should be a percentage of what you made when you were working, not more. But we all know that there is too much government assistance in this and other stuff. I'm a big fan of "no worky no eaty"!!!

I've been layed off before. Its not fun. But I didn't miss a house payment, a car payment and my family didn't miss any meals. And I didn't file for unemployment! I got out and knocked on doors looking for work. And I landed the job that I recently retired from! But while I was knocking on doors I mowed yards, painted houses, washed cars, hauled hay, cut wood, ect. We cut back on spending money on things like going out to eat, renting movies, unnecessary driving, drinking, ect until we had money coming in again.
 
what kind of timeline are you looking at? If it's along infinity yes I think we will definitely hit new highs and if you go out far enough I think you will ultimately see the demise of all sovereign currencies on the planet. I think by now you know where my school of thought is the end of days is not upon us fighting off zombies and criminals at the driveway just yet. I am also fully expecting another 10 to 20% pullback this summer, but I don't think you will see near the volume or velocity of the Forced margin calls and desperation for cash. . There are far more people looking to get a return on their investible assets than Those who are willing to put it in a coffee can in the backyard

I'm taking about the same general timelines as you did - let's call it the next year or two. Within this timeframe, I could easily see two very different scenarios playing it - a 25% dip (or even worse) sometime in the next several months with a screaming fast recovery, or the current trend continues to a new high and then we see a big crash as confidence collapses. Those two scenarios involve the same basic events, but the order matters.
 
I'm all for unemployment. But it should be a percentage of what you made when you were working, not more. But we all know that there is too much government assistance in this and other stuff. I'm a big fan of "no worky no eaty"!!!

I've been layed off before. Its not fun. But I didn't miss a house payment, a car payment and my family didn't miss any meals. And I didn't file for unemployment! I got out and knocked on doors looking for work. And I landed the job that I recently retired from! But while I was knocking on doors I mowed yards, painted houses, washed cars, hauled hay, cut wood, ect. We cut back on spending money on things like going out to eat, renting movies, unnecessary driving, drinking, ect until we had money coming in again.

To my knowledge it’s a state by state thing. Heck a friend of mine in Bama told me that his max was $262 a week, despite what you put into it or what you previously made. Yeah, I agree with you that it should be some kind of percentage of what you made because going from like $100k a year to $262 a week would mean most would have a really hard time paying their bills, even with unemployment to help. Hopefully they would have had some kind of savings to help.

I keep hearing of these people that were laid off and getting hired back by their previous employers off the books. So these people are somehow collecting their original pay plus $600-$800 in unemployment. Not sure how that works since Washington pays the highest at $792 a week. Most states come nowhere near that. My point is that most people are probably not making what they would be working, while on unemployment, not even close. So, I’d have to caution those sources that claim people are making $60k a year on unemployment. They also take taxes our of your unemployment check, so even in WA they ain’t bringing home $792 a week.

I don’t know many that would be happy living on what unemployment pays. I still believe there are more that would like to work and make more than there are those that want to sit on their ass and make as little as possible.
 
I'm taking about the same general timelines as you did - let's call it the next year or two. Within this timeframe, I could easily see two very different scenarios playing it - a 25% dip (or even worse) sometime in the next several months with a screaming fast recovery, or the current trend continues to a new high and then we see a big crash as confidence collapses. Those two scenarios involve the same basic events, but the order matters.
OK so we are talking the same thing essentially. i'm planning on a pull back of large proportions this year, but if it doesn't oh well. i'm staying in....there is risk everywhere that's for sure. gonna be bonkers
 
If I have to go to work at Taco Bell, I’m fucked!
 
All of this is going to come due, an most will never be the same, or look at the so called US leadership the same ever again,...as They are leading this country into the shiter, rapidly. People who understand it's all going to come due are hedging their bets by slowly reverting back to the ways of their grandparents, an those times.
 
All of this is going to come due, an most will never be the same, or look at the so called US leadership the same ever again,...as They are leading this country into the shiter, rapidly. People who understand it's all going to come due are hedging their bets by slowly reverting back to the ways of their grandparents, an those times.

I’m playing both sides of the fence! Building a garden as we speak and investing!
 
I’m playing both sides of the fence! Building a garden as we speak and investing!
I have never seen so many gardens here,... ever. There are many that are owned by up to 10 familys each that I know of. Many are now taking canning classes as well as learning how to smoke meat, and make their own soap. One of the older saw mills has an old water powered grist mill, that some are helping to bring it back to life. Most older people around here are not pie in the sky folks, an the younger seem to be listening for a change. In September we have a local event that brings out most everyone around for the food, entertainment, old tractors, machinery, crafts ect, plus listening to the tic's talk/predict. This next one should be interesting as many are all ready saying they want to learn who local can do/teach the old ways.
 
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Boeing Layoffs:
Union workers at Boeing Co. are bracing for significant job cuts to be announced this week, according to multiple news reports. Citing union officials, the Puget Sound Business Journal, Reuters and Bloomberg News all reported Tuesday that deep cuts will be announced in the coming days, mostly in Washington and California. About 1,300 union workers have reportedly already applied to take voluntary buyouts. The Puget Sound Business Journal reported that 15% to 20% of white-collar engineering jobs may be eliminated in the Seattle area and Southern California. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that the airplane maker may cut up to 10% of its workforce -- about 16,000 jobs -- amid a tough business environment that has been exacerbated by the
Amtrak Layoffs:
WASHINGTON — Amtrak is preparing to cut up to 20% of its workforce in the next fiscal year as the national railroad continues to suffer from a huge decline in ridership as the coronavirus pandemic brought most travel to a halt.
Ridership and ticket revenue at the company have fallen by 95% since the pandemic began, Chief Executive Bill Flynn told Amtrak workers in an internal memo on Tuesday.

The trend continues... High paying jobs with benefits, etc....

Hobo
 
Boeing Layoffs:
Union workers at Boeing Co. are bracing for significant job cuts to be announced this week, according to multiple news reports. Citing union officials, the Puget Sound Business Journal, Reuters and Bloomberg News all reported Tuesday that deep cuts will be announced in the coming days, mostly in Washington and California. About 1,300 union workers have reportedly already applied to take voluntary buyouts. The Puget Sound Business Journal reported that 15% to 20% of white-collar engineering jobs may be eliminated in the Seattle area and Southern California. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that the airplane maker may cut up to 10% of its workforce -- about 16,000 jobs -- amid a tough business environment that has been exacerbated by the
Amtrak Layoffs:
WASHINGTON — Amtrak is preparing to cut up to 20% of its workforce in the next fiscal year as the national railroad continues to suffer from a huge decline in ridership as the coronavirus pandemic brought most travel to a halt.
Ridership and ticket revenue at the company have fallen by 95% since the pandemic began, Chief Executive Bill Flynn told Amtrak workers in an internal memo on Tuesday.

The trend continues... High paying jobs with benefits, etc....

Hobo
I guess the CEOs will pocket most of the billion dollar bailouts and funnel the rest into politician’s “consulting firms.”
 
After the 737Max fiasco, Boeing was both already in and deserving of a tailspin. The Covid was just the last part of a failure drill.

As for Amtrak? They haven’t been self sufficient since inception and are the bailout kings. They’re the perfect example, right along with USPS, of how badly the government runs a business.
 
After the 737Max fiasco, Boeing was both already in and deserving of a tailspin. The Covid was just the last part of a failure drill.

As for Amtrak? They haven’t been self sufficient since inception and are the bailout kings. They’re the perfect example, right along with USPS, of how badly the government runs a business.

So, your thinking Boeing is done?
 
So, your thinking Boeing is done?

Quite possibly as a manufacturer of commercial aircraft. I'm assuming their military division will get propped up by the Pentagon (using our tax dollars) for the foreseeable future.

Damn, 15-20% cuts in engineering for a company that was already struggling to design and launch quality product. That's devastating.

Here is a picture of what happens when a company spends nearly 75% of its free cash flow on stock buybacks:

Screenshot_20200527-074833.png


Looks like $45 billion flushed down the toilet. Time to let capitalism render its verdict.
 
Quite possibly as a manufacturer of commercial aircraft. I'm assuming their military division will get propped up by the Pentagon (using our tax dollars) for the foreseeable future.

Damn, 15-20% cuts in engineering for a company that was already struggling to design and launch quality product. That's devastating.

Here is a picture of what happens when a company spends nearly 75% of its free cash flow on stock buybacks:

View attachment 7337099

Looks like $45 billion flushed down the toilet. Time to let capitalism render its verdict.
They can prop it up just so long... As with the rest of the economy / market... Long enough for those CEO's to cash in the cash cows and retire.... Wonder what country they will choose to reside in after the crash?

Hobo
 
So, your thinking Boeing is done?
No, but they should be. They’ve made some VERY poor decisions of late, and their cost overrun game on .mil contracts is equally bullshit. They’ll get bailed out as usual, but really they don’t deserve it. NG/LM should scoop them up or merge, but that’s equally fucking the American public and likely not allowed by FTC regs anyhow.

One side of me is laughing at their downfall because that takes a fuck ton of money from the leftist elites of Seattle and Washington, but I do feel very sorry for the workers on their lines. The engineers who were party to the 737Max failures and coverup, they can live in squalor for all I care. Fuck them.