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Range Report What "the trace" is and how to see it

bohem

PVA's HMFIC
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Jan 6, 2009
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Southeast, PA
www.patriotvalleyarms.com
<span style="text-decoration: underline">Background:</span>

A few months ago Ply1951Guy and I were talking about being able to simulate bullet flight accurately. Two primary topics of discussion were the dynamic simulation with a 6DOF model that's driven with the aerodynamic solution as well as a highly accurate aerodynamic solution. I'm working on that dynamic solution at this point, but Ply1951Guy has some preliminary results from the Aero solutions that I thought people might be interested in taking a look at.

Bryan Litz's book and Eaglet's calculator help us (as a community) get an estimate on a theoretical bullet calculation and Bryan did a huge amount of work to test a number of actual bullets in flight to get highly accurate BC's for each of the bullets we commonly shoot.

The question/discussion that always comes up is how accurate are the factory prediced BC's? Again back to Bryan's book with the data in the back, there's not much to argue with his presentation of data; the excellent work is a hit with everyone I've talked to about it and I really like it myself.

Ply1951Guy has developed a way to model the flow characteristics around the bullet during flight with a Compressible Computational Fluid Dynamic Simulation (C-CFD). It works on similar principles that Finite Element Analysis is based upon for solid objects where stress, strain, modal behavior, etc. is being investigated, it's simply a different set of partial differential equations to be solved.

The hitch is that it's compressible and highly shock dependent behavior. To our knowledge, nobody else is modeling bullets this way unless it's proprietary or classified research that has yet to be released to the general public. I will freely admit that while I understand the concepts of the model and the conceptualization of Finite Element Theory, if you want details on how the model is built you need to contact him. My specialty is in solid mechanics and mechanisms, not fluids...

The models I'm presenting here are the G7 standard bullet. They have been scaled to a 7mm projectile size and are being shown at Mach 2.76, which is 3000fps at standard conditions. Realistically this would be approximately a 140gr 7mm Boat Tail bullet with a 10 caliber ogive. Since everything we talk about is referenced off of this standard he started his simulations with that.

To validate the accuracy of the model he also built models of some other 7mm bullets that are included in Bryan's book and compared the doppler radar data to the results he obtained via his proprietary method. The predicted model is has less than 2% error compared to the standard table (1.91% if memory serves correctly) and the other bullets ranged between 1.5% and 1.9% lower drag than the radar measured.

We know what the source of this error is, it's in the fact that the bullet is simulated without rotation (not spinning in the air) but the complexity involved with that modeling is not realistic to include for reasonable solution times.

A common question that comes up is new shooters who've never experienced long range shooting, especially with quality optics want to understand what “the trace” is all about. This is where the background information above comes in.

<span style="text-decoration: underline">The Trace</span>

The trace is somewhat difficult to capture on a video and without a video that can be paused, backed up and played again for others to watch with instruction it can be difficult for someone to catch. Additionally I've seen a number of comments asking “why does the trace happen” and “what dictaes how strong the effect is” amongst others. The informed reader knows that this is because of the shock waves and density change around the bullet as it flies at supersonic speeds towards the target. The question arises though: “What am I actually looking at?”

Ply1951Guy put together some screen shots of various orientations and a kick-ass video showing the isosurfaces of constant density around the bullet at various points.

First is a cross sectional slice of the flow field around the bullet that shows the relative velocity of the air flowing around the bullet (keep in mind that the bullet doesn't know it's flying, it just knows what is acting on it from the outside, so the model treats it as a stationary object with the air moving by it instead).



The color gradient shows the local velocity of the air as it flows around the bullet and you can see the well defined shock waves formed from the supersonic flow around the bullet.

Keeping this in mind, now it's time to think about the way air acts as a shock wave moves through it. The density of the air is dependent upon several things, one of them is the pressure. The shockwaves create a pressure discontinuity where a large jump in pressure (and therefore density) happens as you move across the shock wave.

As the pressure increases the density increases. This means little if you have a large region like a "high pressure system" of weather. The change is very slow, the region is large and your eyes see nothing differently.

The bullet is a small, localized pressure difference that makes the light come through "clear" but that buttery ripple of the trace is where the high pressure wake of the bullet bends the light differently because the Refractive Index has changed in the small local region around the bullet as it flies downrange. The governing equations wouldn't add much but confusion to this synopsis, so I'll skip it. Here's the lookup for those who might be interested in the Elden and Updated Elden equations for the Refrative Index of Air

"An Updated Elden Equation for the Refractive Index of Air" by Birch and Downs


Density Plot, Side View



So that might help some, but Ply1951Guy really did quite the job putting together stuff to present this information. Here's a legend to show where the cross section slices came from:

<span style="font-weight: bold">Slice Locator</span>


Concentric rings of pressure wave are shown at the various slices, you can see how the density change moves out from the bullet as you get farther back from the meplat of the bullet (that is where the shock starts from).

Slice 1



Slice 2



Slice 3



Slice 4



The surfaces wrapping around the bullet are called Isodensity surfaces and they show the region around the bullet that have all the same density. Each different surface shows a different density value which bends the light in it's own way as the bullet proceeds downrange. He had to piece this together from snapshots and I think he did a kickass job with it.

The video shows only local results around the bullet but it propagates away from the bullet and leaves a dissipation region much like a boat leaves a wake as it travels through calm water.




So hopefully this helps to give guys a better concept of what they're actually seeing with the trace, as well as something to look for.

We're thinking about how to turn this into a realistic business venture to make turned solids and optimized bullets available to far more shooters who want to stretch the legs of their rifles, we'll make any other public disclosures regarding a business after talking to LowLight and getting clearance on it. The goal of this was to put out some helpful tools, so let's try to steer to that primarily.

Any in depth questions should be directed to Ply1951Guy, I'll try to answer others as I can.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Bohem,

There is a video with some really good trace examples in the first post of this thread:

http://www.snipershide.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=1985386

The question I have is practical. What are the local conditions that affect the visibility of the trace. My partner and I went out a couple weeks ago and there was not a trace to be seen. Is this predictable? Humidity, temperature, wind, sun angle?

It can be very frustrating to get a guy on steel at 1500 yds, when you have no idea where his rounds are going.

John

ETA: got so wrapped up in my question... GREAT POST. My head hurts a little and I'm sure it will take a while to digest, but there's a lot in there. Thanks guys.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

You're right, I should clarify. Catching the trace on video is difficult but we have some good examples listed on this website. They've been instrumental to a lot of shooters I'm sure. For me, they confirmed what I was seeing sometimes and I didn't know what I should call it. It did tell me I wasn't smoking crack though when I thought I could watch the bullet fly downrange.

A lot of times I can't see a trace at all when it's low humidity and the mirage is bad. The mirage seems to screw me up the most, my eye has a hard time picking up the ripple amongst the rest of the mirage.

Humidity, light conditions, temperature all play a role.

The ambient pressure will make a difference but it's mostly relative so the trace isn't affected as much by that sort of pressure condition.

Humidity is very important because humidity is a mixture of water dissolved in air. When the humidity is very high the pressure changes from the shock wave(s) are enough to cause localized instabilities in the solution and the water vapor falls out and forms a little cloud. This is what's going on when you see a jet near Mach 1 with the shock wave well defined in a cloud on the aircraft. The cloud shows the low pressure region immediately BEHIND the shock wave. It doesn't show the front edge of the shock.

This is because as pressure increases, solubility increases. Therefore as pressure drops, the amount of water vapor than can be dissolved in the air drops. When the high pressure shock wave passes and a low pressure region follows (this low pressure region is at ambient or less) then a small condensate cloud forms.

This is why when it's very humid out you can see a trace with the naked eye quite easily. The trace you're seeing is not the light distortion from the change in the refractive index, you're literally watching a small cloud go ripping down the range.

So that's humidity...

Temperature is a lesser effect because the temperature changes from the hot bullet and the shock waves are miniscule on the temperature. The refractive index will change on the macro scale with regional temperature change, aka a high pressure index or a low pressure index, but as far as seeing the trace from temperature changes you're not getting much because of the miniscule changes that are being made to the air from temp only.

Mirage is a good example of how the refractive index changes due to temperature on a large scale that is still a transient behavior but something that is slow enough for us to see clearly. It is also a large enough scale for us to get a good idea of it. When the mirage is really bad you can see it with the naked eye. An example of this is when you're driving down the highway in the middle of the summertime on a hot day. In some places (like FL) the highways not only have a white dashed line but a black dashed line so that during these conditions the reflected light from the localized HOT HOT temps at the road surface don't reflect all the light so much that drivers can't see the lines on the road.

The way the light is coming through the trace. effects how the shooter sees it in exactly the same way it affects how the shooter sees the mirage.


 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

jrob300,

It is hard to accurately predict the ability to see the trace. But as you said, everything from humidity, temperature, and sun angle all can affect things. Wind does not really affect your ability to see trace. The other large factor is the optic being used to visualize the trace. Seeing the trace through a spotting scope is usually easier than seeing the trace through a rifle scope. This is due to the typically larger aperture of the spotting scope. If watching for trace through a rifle scope, your best best is to keep the magnification at the lower end of the scopes ability rather then going up to max power. Seeing the trace depends on seeing the light that passes close by the bullet. Keeping the scope on lower magnification keeps the field of view larger, which means more light transmission. And keeping with the scope, the focus plane also can help or hurt the ability to see the trace. The best chances of seeing the trace is to focus slightly in front of the target rather than directly on the target. It is similar to trying to read the mirage in front of the target to estimate wind. But I definitely agree with you. When shooting 1500 ~ 1600 yards and having no idea where the rounds are landing gets very frustrating very quickly. I think that has probably happened to everyone how shoots at those ranges.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

I'm not sure exactly what he means by that statement.

The bullet is going to be at the tip of the trace and almost centered in the rippled wash the shooter/spotter is going to see during the flight.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

dfoosking, the only thing I could think your friend would mean by that statement is if you are trying to view the trace from some weird angle, ie almost perpendicular the the person who is doing the shooting. At those types of angles, maybe the conical structure of the shock/expansion waves might deflect the light in some weird way, but physically the bullet will always be at the center of the trace. Your friend must be referring to some weird optical illusion. Also, seeing the trace from say 90 degrees is a harder than seeing it from behind the shooter.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

This is the practical point that I intended to address after reading the thread.

The trace is not always a true indicator of where the bullet *is*. By the time the trace grows to a size that you can see (which is many times the diameter of the bullet), the <span style="font-style: italic">wind</span> has had a chance to displace it somewhat from the bullets trajectory.

I've seen trace that made it look like the bullet was flying a corkscrew path several feet in radius which I know is not how the bullet flies. In that case I was shooting along a treeline where the wind was swirling. So I was seeing the effect of the wind on the trace, not the actual path of the bullet.

Thanks for presenting your work. CFD is hardcore and it takes a real expert to use it effectively. Several things to remember:
* CFD is poor at predicting viscous effects including boundary layer properties and flow in adverse pressure gradients (boat tails/base drag). For this, corrections are established based on known (measured) results and applied to other projectiles with similar base geometry.
* The riflings on the bullet will be important o account for if you're looking for accuracy in the 'couple percent' range, but again this is in the boundary layer region where CFD is week.

I would be interested in seeing a dynamic animation of the predicted trace as the bullet flies thru a turbulent flowfield (swirling wind).


Here are a couple shooting video's I've made which show trace:
Practice at 600 yards (Cadillac MI)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaGFq3LixzY

F-class Nationals (Sacramento, CA)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_emtn0k6_c&feature=channel
(notice my awesome coaching: center, center, center, center...)

-Bryan
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Bryan, thank you for taking the time to look through it and address those items.

We've talked previously about the engraving marks affecting the drag and discussed the boundary layer issue on them. We started working without them initially to see how much effect they would have and realized that 2% holds those details we're looking at fixing. It's good to hear we're approaching the right track.

I'm sure Francis will have some more thoughts and chime in here, since he's the CFD expert I'm going to stop at that.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Bryan,

Good points. I have never seen any kind of swirling trace effects before. But my guess is that it must have been a reasonably windy day. And I can see how the tree line would not help.

We can talk about the CFD comments somewhere else. The whole discussion of finite element versus finite volume methods, structured versus unstructured meshes, mesh size/resolution, boundary layer, etc, etc is way too complicated for this thread. We wanted to show these results just to give people an idea of why trace happens. As for the CFD, we validated the CFD code to some real life examples. The same issues apply to numerical work just like experimental work. How accurately can you measure the speed of the bullet using radar data? There is always some uncertainty. Same goes for CFD. We just validated the model to show we are within the same types of percent errors. We do not expect it to be exact, and the CFD user would be foolish to expect results that accurate from numerical studies. But we do have confidence in the model.

Thanks for your input.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Thanks for answering my questions about conditions that affect trace.

A somewhat related but obscure question...

Everything else being equal, would the number of lands/grooves, depth of engraving, normal vs. 5R rifling affect the ELR performance of a bullet? In other words, is there a subtle advantage to be had in some combo of the engraving left on the bullet that might only show up after 1500-2000 yards or beyond?

John
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

For me learning to see the trace is the hardest skill to learn other than wind calls.

So for for me, higher relative humidity is the easiest to see trace in. We were out a few weeks ago and humidity mearured on a Kestral was 12%, temp 104F. Never saw any trace that day.

Next importand factor is the position of the sun relative to the flight of the bullet. Sun behind the shooter seems best but it depends.

Easiest place to see the trace is directly behind the shooter and elevated 2 to 5 feet.

Next remember the bullet travels above the line of sight and rises and falls. You should be able to see spin drift and wind effects.

a few examples
Shooting accross a small valley with a .243 w/ 70 grainers at 750 yards. Had a 3:00 crosswind. About 5 to 7 feet of wind.
You could see the trace literally make a left turn once the wind started pushing on it.

another.
At a match in Juanuary a few years ago the guys were telling me that my trace was cork-screwing. High humidity, almost zero wind. 1-2MPH.
At the same match learned you can't see the trace when it is snowing!
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: jrob300</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Everything else being equal, would the number of lands/grooves, depth of engraving, normal vs. 5R rifling affect the ELR performance of a bullet? In other words, is there a subtle advantage to be had in some combo of the engraving left on the bullet that might only show up after 1500-2000 yards of beyond?

John </div></div>

This is getting into Laminar/Turbulent Flow issues.

Anyone know if anyone is studying this with Small Arms projectiles?
DoD maybe?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laminar_flow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbulent_flow

I've never seen any data on this relating to rifling cut into a bullet while in flight.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Yeah, I figured it was pretty "fringy" stuff. But I figured if two guys could make my head hurt that much describing trace, maybe they could go one further.
grin.gif


John

ETA: what made me start thinking about it was Krieger is now offering 5R rifling. I wondered if the less radical engraving *might* be slight less disturbing to the flow of air over the bullet.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

any you homos touch me or any of my stuff.............i'll kill ya
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: dgunn</div><div class="ubbcode-body">any you homos touch me or any of my stuff.............i'll kill ya </div></div>

Settle down Fancis.




Ill let Francis address th laminar flow modeling. He hinted at some of the ways to address the issues that Bryan brought up. I know we talked about it but I get lost with some of this as well. Like I said above he's the expert on it.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Simplified.

Trace 101:

Pressure waves cause air to be locally varied in density. Where air density varies, so does its refractive behavior, very much like lenses. In essence, the air waves act like lenses, distorting light rays that are passing through them from behind them and on through to us. The process is very similar to mirage, and has a rippling effect.

Greg
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Greg - excellent summary. Really sums the whole thing up well.

As for the laminar/turbulent flow discussion between jrob and ida. As you can see in the one picture, the bullet used in the simulation did not have any engraving marks on it. So any effects that will have are not represented in the pictured model. Since you guys brought up the differences between laminar and turbulent flow, let me delve into this subject a little deeper. Drag on the bullet has two components, pressure drag and viscous drag. Then the total drag on the bullet is just the sum of the two components. For this bullet, pressure drag accounts for 93% of the total drag. This type of breakdown is very typical in compressible flows. The engraving marks on the bullet will affect the viscous drag on the bullet, which is already small. Without gorging through the details, the engraving marks will affect the bullet most when the bullet slows down to Mach 1, the sonic barrier. My simulations do account for turbulence, so maybe I will make a model of a bullet with engraving marks and get back to you with more details, if I have the time.

ida - my guess is that someone in the department of the DoD has studied these kinds of effects, but it is classified, so we don't know it.

dgunn - My name is Francis, but everyone calls me psycho. If any of you guys call me Francis, I'll kill ya.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ply1951guy</div><div class="ubbcode-body">the engraving marks will affect the bullet most when the bullet slows down to Mach 1, the sonic barrier. </div></div>

This is what I suspected but couldn't even come close to proving.

John
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

I had my first 'solo' trace experience last Sat - as in I could see my own trace through the March scope I use. Happy confluence of humidity and low recoil (223 f-class gun). Interestingly, I could see the trace moved out to the right by the wind, which was blowing left to right at a full value. As has been discussed, I don't think it's any really reliable indicator of where your fall of shot will be.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

is this why the marine sniper teams lay on top of each other like a pair of homo looge sledders on the slope together for their "first time?" just wondrin
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

"Chicks dig me. Because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something sexy"

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Drag on the bullet has two components, pressure drag and viscous drag. Then the total drag on the bullet is just the sum of the two components. For this bullet, pressure drag accounts for 93% of the total drag. This type of breakdown is very typical in compressible flows. The engraving marks on the bullet will affect the viscous drag on the bullet, which is already small. Without gorging through the details, the engraving marks will affect the bullet most when the bullet slows down to Mach 1, the sonic barrier. My simulations do account for turbulence, so maybe I will make a model of a bullet with engraving marks and get back to you with more details, if I have the time.</div></div>

VERY well put! I look forward to what your model produces.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">ida - my guess is that someone in the department of the DoD has studied these kinds of effects, but it is classified, so we don't know it.</div></div>

I saw a report out of aberdeen on this at one point but can't find it now. It was more comparing the capabilities/accuracy of CFD modeling to actual test firing, not so much looking at the actual affects. Would be interesting if I could find it again...
Also CheyTac has patented the 'balanced spin' technology for their system which implies an understanding, even manipulation of rifling effects on transonic stability. It's my opinion that they're not actually achieving what they claim <span style="font-style: italic">thru rifling design</span>, and maybe not at all. That's just my opinion.

-Bryan
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

BIG, BIG THANKS to Bohem for the excellent writeup, and to Bryan for the comments and the last link.

Bryan, I agree with you on LRBs "balanced spin" claims...
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: TiroFijo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">BIG, BIG THANKS to Bohem for the excellent writeup, and to Bryan for the comments and the last link.

Bryan, I agree with you on LRBs "balanced spin" claims... </div></div>

Thank you, but let's not forget the work that Ply1951Guy has put into this. I put the above presentation together in about an hour, that doesn't begin to reflect the work he has in it already.

ETA: Bryan, thanks for that paper!

 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: ply1951guy</div><div class="ubbcode-body"> Without gorging through the details, the engraving marks will affect the bullet most when the bullet slows down to Mach 1, the sonic barrier. My simulations do account for turbulence, so maybe I will make a model of a bullet with engraving marks and get back to you with more details, if I have the time.
</div></div>

The difficult part may be modeling the spin at what, 125k or 150k rpm.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

If I understood the conclusion from that paper that Bryan linked, the difference between a smooth and engraved projectile were found to be "minimal or within the experimental error of the
ballistics testing". So I'm assuming then, at least according to this particular test, that the number of lands/grooves or design of the rifling would be lost in the noise.

John
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Remember that that paper focused around Mach 2, or near muzzle velocity. We're talking about rifling engraving effects at transonic speeds which are much more important.

In that sense the paper wasn't totally relevant to our discussion, but interesting nonetheless.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

That's a good point. I missed that. At lower speeds I would expect those effects to grow in impact on trajectory.

John
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

you guys are forgetting the basic quantum mechanics here...the first step is to realize there is no bullet ,neo.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: jrob300</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Bohem,

There is a video with some really good trace examples in the first post of this thread:

http://www.snipershide.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=1985386 </div></div>

Skyking...

Boy,

Are YOU late to the party.
grin.gif


I linked your famous video at the beginning of this thread!

It IS a great example of trace...

John
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: jrob300</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: jrob300</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Bohem,

There is a video with some really good trace examples in the first post of this thread:

http://www.snipershide.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=1985386 </div></div>

Skyking...

Boy,

Are YOU late to the party.
grin.gif


I linked your famous video at the beginning of this thread!

It IS a great example of trace...

John</div></div>

jrob300...

The story of my life. I was trying to link the guy shooting the goat at 943 yard.

Unless I am missing something.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

Yep, your video and the guy shooting the goat with the 300 RUM are both good examples of trace. We were trying to show *WHY* the trace exists and give an animated visual about what's going on as a teaching aid. Thanks for the contribution though, it's still appreciated.
 
Re: What "the trace" is and how to see it

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Skyking</div><div class="ubbcode-body">jrob300...

The story of my life. I was trying to link the guy shooting the goat at 943 yard.

Unless I am missing something.
</div></div>

Nope. The goat video was good. I just thought yours was better.
wink.gif


John