What's the best guess on component prices going up or down over the next 6 months?

[ReaperDriver]

I just ordered a large frame AR build in 6mm Creedmore that should ship in Aug. I now need to get components for it - brass, bullets, dies.... since I don't currently reload for this caliber. I have plenty of stocks of 6.5 bullets, powder and Large Rifle primers. But the 6mm is new to me and I'll need all the usual start up stuff like brass, small rifle primers, 6mm bullets, etc. Powders should be common between 6 and 6.5, I assume.

Since the gun won't show up until Aug or Sept - what are your guy's best guesses as to prices by late summer? Given that stuff seems to gradually be coming back into stock more and more than even a few months ago - should I be patient and let prices drop some more expecting manufacturing will eventually catch up with demand a bit? Or should I expect that these current prices are the new normal and stock up on stuff now while I can now?

 

[diverdon]

Either up or unavailable.

 

[_Windrider_]

Either up or unavailable.

This. Unfortunately.

 

[TheOfficeT-Rex]

Prices will stay high, but supplies will stabilize. Late summer will look a lot like it does now. I doubt prices will go down (gunbroker excluded - that bubble must burst). The days of $35/thousand primers are over.

Just neck down some of that LRP 6,5 brass, now you only need to find 6mm bullets.

 

[Bullspotter]

get it now if available as long as its a fair price. Seems like 6mm projectiles are not as hard to come by as some others. Things might be better in 6 months, or they may be worse. I have no clue, but i choose to have extra stuff NOW. Just my .02

 

[Brisket]

I think (hope) supply will stabilize, but I don't think prices will come down until there is an oversaturation of supply. I don't think that'll happen for a year or four

 

[MtnCreek]

I think there's a decent chance the senate changes rules to end filibusterer this yr. If that happens it will make the current shortage look like a joke. If you need something, can find it and can afford it, buy. JMHO.

 

[Alan Warner]

I just ordered a large frame AR build in 6mm Creedmore that should ship in Aug. I now need to get components for it - brass, bullets, dies.... since I don't currently reload for this caliber. I have plenty of stocks of 6.5 bullets, powder and Large Rifle primers. But the 6mm is new to me and I'll need all the usual start up stuff like brass, small rifle primers, 6mm bullets, etc. Powders should be common between 6 and 6.5, I assume.

Since the gun won't show up until Aug or Sept - what are your guy's best guesses as to prices by late summer? Given that stuff seems to gradually be coming back into stock more and more than even a few months ago - should I be patient and let prices drop some more expecting manufacturing will eventually catch up with demand a bit? Or should I expect that these current prices are the new normal and stock up on stuff now while I can now?

Wholesale price of copper from the mills is undergoing a 20% increase as we speak.

 

[MarshallDodge]

Bullets and brass will come down. Powder and especially primers will still be crazy.

 

[proSquid]

You guys are optimistic. Like stated earlier, I’m thinking things will stay like this and worse over the next 3years. As stated above, there must be a really high saturation of product to drive down price. Supply/Demand at its finest.

 

[charnicus]

I’d the same or higher. Certainly wouldn’t be waiting to buy at a better price.

 

[demolitionman]

My swag: Compononents will never go down in price (I am not talking about gunbroker prices). Only the supply will return. These current prices are the new normal. On a side note; I had my single alotted brick of cci200’s delivered today from midway. 90$ For 1000. This will be the new normal price shipped tyd I’m thinking.

 

[jinxx4ever]

there's still 50 million guns out there that's been purchased in last year folks are still waiting on for ammo for, i wouldn't get my hopes up

 

[47guy]

My swag: Compononents will never go down in price (I am not talking about gunbroker prices). Only the supply will return. These current prices are the new normal. On a side note; I had my single alotted brick of cci200’s delivered today from midway. 90$ For 1000. This will be the new normal price shipped tyd I’m thinking.

I think the new prices from the local stores will be $100 per 1000 for primers...8lb jugs around $300...be interesting to see if and when things start coming back.

 

[Steel head]

I think the new prices from the local stores will be $100 per 1000 for primers...8lb jugs around $300...be interesting to see if and when things start coming back.

After Obama and Sandy hook madness it was well over a year before things slightly got better and powder/primers were at least 10% more when readily available.

This madness is even worse because even lefties were panic buying guns and a triple whammy of election, riots and plague of stupidity.

 

[47guy]

After Obama and Sandy hook madness it was well over a year before things slightly got better and powder/primers were at least 10% more when readily available.

This madness is even worse because even lefties were panic buying guns and a triple whammy of election, riots and plague of stupidity.

Also the manufacturers are sitting back watching all this stupidity and thinking....why not raise prices....I mean I seen an 8lb jug of H1000 go for $1120!

 

[hafejd30]

I’m going to be optimistic and say the availability comes back. Prices adjusted higher than before but not absurd. Just not trump in office low

I think they’ll level off for a bit then be another panic during senate seat votes next year.

Unless as mentioned above they mess with the filibuster. At that point even getting an AR at that point won’t happen

I think the new gun owners makes a difference now but many shops have stashed ammo (at least any around me) so they are able to sell a few boxes with each gun purchase

Let’s face it the new shooters for the most part are buying a carry gun or something else for protection. Many will get the initial ammo and run on that for a while.

Buy a Glock, buy 100 rounds of ammo, get ccw, only shoot enough to get ccw and get comfortable with gun. Most think they’re g2g in a couple mags. Then carry the gun without much concern for training afterwards

The serious ammo suckers like us already did the shooting before will be the major consumer once again.

There’s even lots of locals that purchased AR’s recently just to have because they may not become available in the future. Many I don’t see shooting the gun more than a couple times a year

Again I’m optimistic enough to be positive about it. But not confident enough to burn up what I have in hopes it’ll level out

 

[Steel head]

Also the manufacturers are sitting back watching all this stupidity and thinking....why not raise prices....I mean I seen an 8lb jug of H1000 go for $1120!

They’re probably jumping with joy

 

[47guy]

They’re probably jumping with joy

And planing early retirement LOL!

 

[hafejd30]

They’re probably jumping with joy

I would think the manufacturers are also realizing that the competition shooters who chew lots of ammo, LE agencies who play with limited budget and many others will only shoot so much with any major price increases. More expense means less people shooting and less new shooters being attracted to the sport

 

[47guy]

I would think the manufacturers are also realizing that the competition shooters who chew lots of ammo, LE agencies who play with limited budget and many others will only shoot so much with any major price increases. More expense means less people shooting and less new shooters being attracted to the sport

I agree to a point...thing is look at what ppl are paying for things now so if the manufacturers add a 3rd more to prices I think most would be happy...most primers right now...as you know...are $150-$200 per 1k so $75-$80 per 1k don’t sound so bad.

 

[blbennett1288]

I have seen powder and bullets starting to return. Hell, since January I have been able to get Varget fairly regularly.

The bottleneck is the primers. COVID & Elections exacerbated this and I think we are seeing the panic buying slowing down. I give it 6 months to a year before things slow down and return to any normalcy. I think the increased prices are here to stay.

 

[47guy]

I have seen powder and bullets starting to return. Hell, since January I have been able to get Varget fairly regularly.

The bottleneck is the primers. COVID & Elections exacerbated this and I think we are seeing the panic buying slowing down. I give it 6 months to a year before things slow down and return to any normalcy. I think the increased prices are here to stay.

Funny you see powder....my local scheels has had primers every 30-60 days through this whole shit show and not a box or 2 they have had hundreds of thousands each time.

 

[47guy]

This was last week...shelf is about a 3rd full in pic...was full am before I got there then filled again about 1-2pm

 

[blbennett1288]

Funny you see powder....my local scheels has had primers every 30-60 days through this whole shit show and not a box or 2 they have had hundreds of thousands each time.

I can’t really speak to in stores, as I am not consistent enough in my visits to say yay or nay if things are better or worse. I was talking about online. I have been able to pickup BR4’s and BR2’s in store but it’s been sporadic

 

[blbennett1288]

This was last week...shelf is about a 3rd full in pic...was full am before I got there then filled again about 1-2pm

I would buy all those BR4’s lol

 

[DIBBS]

I was pleasantly surprised this PM. LGS got a very small order of primers in , I walked out with 2K of 215's for 94 bucks or something.

I believe prices in general will probably go up 15-20% across the board. Supply and demand. Basic Economics 101.5

 

[47guy]

I can’t really speak to in stores, as I am not consistent enough in my visits to say yay or nay if things are better or worse. I was taking about online. I have been able to pickup BR4’s and BR2’s in store but it’s been sporadic

I’m the unlucky guy with powder lol!
I have 16lbs of varget in my cart and sold out before I could log in a pay just this week.

 

[Steel head]

I do see manufacturers possibly being somewhat ready for this now.
It’s unfortunate a somewhat common cycle these days.
I don’t see a huge rise in normalized prices, probably another 10ish%.

 

[47guy]

I would buy all those BR4’s lol

Only 1k per...but bring a new mask and coat and make a couple trips...

 

[47guy]

I was pleasantly surprised this PM. LGS got a very small order of primers in , I walked out with 2K of 215's for 94 bucks or something.

I believe prices in general will probably go up 15-20% across the board. Supply and demand. Basic Economics 101.5

Agree 100%

 

[47guy]

I do see manufacturers possibly being somewhat ready for this now.
It’s unfortunate a somewhat common cycle these days.
I don’t see a huge rise in normalized prices, probably another 10ish%.

I hope your right.

 

[Steel head]

I hope your right.

The wild card is what the retard in charge and his band of idiots do.

 

[47guy]

The wild card is what the retard in charge and his band of idiots do.

Yep keep the panic going.

 

[NoDopes]

Only 1k per...but bring a new mask and coat and make a couple trips...

My local Scheels is limiting buys to just 3 sleeves per day.

 

[TX_Diver]

I'm seeing powder in stock almost daily. Sells out quick still though.

I think supply will stabilize over the coming months, but prices will stay high. BUT, when an anti gun bill starts moving, or there's another shooting then stuff will skyrocket and become unobtanium for at least another year.

 

[Swatman]

I was talking to a wholesaler today who told me that Winchester primers are going up 25% this year and are going to continue to be very hard to find for another year. Other components will go up 10%. It’s going to keep sucking for a while.

 

[Texasflyer]

I went in one of my gunshops the other day and schmoozed 400 primers off of the one brick they had gotten in and then sent my dad and they would only sell him 100. Ive been plinking with my 338 lm because its one of the few guns i can get projectiles for. I was able to score a few hundred barnes tsx 6mm projectiles for my 243. Been thinking of a pcp air rifle for training until it all levels out.

 

[supercorndogs]

This thread could almost be copied pasted from 2008. I have learned that people can't tell the future, despite how much they pretend to be able to online. You have your pessimists, it will never go back down, your optimists, it will go back down when the supply chain catches back up, and your realist, I can't tell the future.

 

[Sgtsideways]

UP UP UP!!!

 

[Milo 2.5]

This thread could almost be copied pasted from 2008. I have learned that people can't tell the future, despite how much they pretend to be able to online. You have your pessimists, it will never go back down, your optimists, it will go back down when the supply chain catches back up, and your realist, I can't tell the future.

2008 was a minor blip, Sandy Hook was real and showed us that manufacturers did and would resort to bread and butter, making ammo and not selling components. I have been under the assumption that the first price increases this time came at the manufacturing level, even though when we see components, factory ammo for sale, it is minimal in markup.
You are right on making predictions though, cannot predict human behavior. Then again, I may be wrong, we are the same people who stocked up on asswipe at this time last yr.
We should know we are in deep shit when a guy buys 2 lbs of IMR 4064 and comes on here asking just WTF could it be used for. Buying components you have no history with, or stockpiling 9mm ammo you have no intentions of practicing with is just foolish IMO.
I still say, slow down.

 

[supercorndogs]

2008 was a minor blip, Sandy Hook was real and showed us that manufacturers did and would resort to bread and butter, making ammo and not selling components. I have been under the assumption that the first price increases this time came at the manufacturing level, even though when we see components, factory ammo for sale, it is minimal in markup.
You are right on making predictions though, cannot predict human behavior. Then again, I may be wrong, we are the same people who stocked up on asswipe at this time last yr.
We should know we are in deep shit when a guy buys 2 lbs of IMR 4064 and comes on here asking just WTF could it be used for. Buying components you have no history with, or stockpiling 9mm ammo you have no intentions of practicing with is just foolish IMO.
I still say, slow down.

I meant 2012.

 

[Jetson]

As to original post, Buy Now, as you can find supplies....I don't think prices are going to come back down enough to make a significant difference at the end of the day. I am going to reload in the near future, and have sourced enough supplies to shoot for the next 3 years or so. I believe that supplies are going to ebb and flow and whenever there seems to be a easing on the supply side, sone external events will dry it right up. What are these external events? Another, and more shootings... like the one in Virginia Beach...ending in more legislation for gun control and outright bans. The end of the filibuster to pass that legislation. The only backstop being the Supreme Court to protect our rights....and I prefer not to put all my Easter eggs in that basket..so to speak. Sure I hope I"m wrong. At the end of the day my wife might call me a pessimist....I prefer to consider myself a realist.

 

[sheepdog697]

This was last week...shelf is about a 3rd full in pic...was full am before I got there then filled again about 1-2pm

Decent price for br-4s. Real good IMO.
In terms of where it’s headed I’d say I’d they don’t push through new gun control legislation it will be the same in 6 months, probably slightly more available(at some point people sticking up will stop). If they do start pushing for legislation hard I’d say prices might go a little, and still be as scarce. I don’t have a crystal ball though. I think the days of .16cpr factory 9mm/ .25cpr factory .223 are long gone.

 

[addertooth]

Most likely up... unless some of this talk of bans get some traction. Then you may see some dumping from the manufacturers (quick, sell it while we can still legally do it). I think the latter is unlikely.

 

[sheepdog697]

The current administration definitely wants to get rid of internet sales... I can only see that having a negative effect on consumers in that market.... that would be pretty hard to get passed though.

 

[Srikaleak]

I'm going to take the contrarian view and say that it behooves you to wait. 2022 expect component prices to be the same or LOWER than what they were pre-pandemic. As the economy stabilizes when the market re-opens, there will be a lot less pressure for people to buy guns and ammo. When things are good, folks don't tend to buy survival gear or prep equipment.

Save your money until 2022 then buy everything you missed out on.

Note: I'm not taking into account inflation. If we see a large growth in inflation, which is predicted to happen, components will cost more only because the $USD will be worth less. But factoring for inflation I imagine prices will come down to pre-2020 levels.

 

[Mauser06]

Reloaders are mostly a secondary market unfortunately.


Like was said, this has been the perfect storm on the gun/ammo Industry.


Reloaders get offered mostly surplus components.


All the material and tooling is set up and running mostly 9mm and 223 if I had to guess.


Turkey season is in or coming in....try finding Turkey loads...I was kinda surprised most manufacturers didn't run at least a big seasonal batch. Been some pop up but not like most years.


We see dribbles of components but not a steady supply. Ammo manufacturers are taking the majority of it all.



IF things calm down, supply will increase and prices will stabilize. For the most part, the few primers and the powder I've seen on line have been "normal" priced. Or close to it. Except midways BRs last week. Those were significantly higher.


Bullets, look for an increase because material costs are going up. They are blaming that on the "coin shortage" which I don't know...not much cash being used these days.


Like was said, if you see it and it's a fair price, I'd buy it now. Prices aren't likely to go way down. Just gotta know your prices.....just because primers are bringing ~250ish and powders bringing big money...dies 3-5x cost and such, those are desperate buyers or buyers that have no idea what they typically cost.


I actually just got into progressive loading. I needed 223, 9mm, 357sig, 40s&w, 45acp, dillon conversions etc etc. I could bought it all at crazy prices. I waited. I bought all of it at normal prices. NIB. Mostly from retailers online.


I'm noticing prices on GB and fleabay and various classifieds are slowly coming down and stuff is sitting longer and longer. More ammo is becoming available. Hopefully it keeps going and this madness ends.


I don't need much at this point. For the stuff I currently own and shoot. I'd like 1 good run of primers and powder and I will be set comfortably for a long while. Will probably buy another 5k 9mm bullets soon.


Precision rifle bullets are one thing I hate to completely stock up on. Never know what a barrel will like. And what will come out in the future and be a better bullet etc.


Fingers crossed things turn around for us. But who knows. Definitely puts a damper on things. I just got into precision rifle shooting. I wanna shoot. But don't wanna burn up what I have not knowing if or when I can replace it.

 

[XTREM HTR16]

Turkey season is in or coming in....try finding Turkey loads...I was kinda surprised most manufacturers didn't run at least a big seasonal batch. Been some pop up but not like most years.

Dang, I just saw some federal TSS loads for $45. For 5 shells. Unreal

 

[Texasflyer]

Most of my handgun powder works in 12 guage. Shotgun primers are available, bizmuth is cheap. Shotgun ammo isnt even very scarce where i am, but with the prices going up i reload them now, its worth it. Been looking for a set of solid brass shells for awhile now. Gonna snag some when i get a chance.