I'm not trying to convince anyone my opinion is correct...well, maybe a little. Inflation is certainly a BIG factor, and I'm sure it's much higher than what the yellow stream media and other sources say (~10%, yeah...think it's a lot higher), but 30-40% increase in ammo prices is inflated by supply and demand. Demand is higher than ever, and supply is not there.I understand your point, but I think you may be underestimating the permanent effect that inflation has had on production costs. Especially for ammunition made in the UK and EU.
If retailers were marking product at a higher margin than they were pre-Covid, waiting for inventory to build up and then forcing them to cut prices might work. But everything I'm seeing is suggesting that everyone is paying more, at all levels of the supply chain. Wholesale and distributor prices are still significantly higher. As are material costs.
I think you may be waiting a long time (perhaps forever) if you're waiting to see prices drop back to where they were prior to 2020.
I saw something on the intardnet today that said 2 million new guns were purchased in the month of August 2023; that's a big number...imagine how much ammo got consumed along with that.
We used to be able to pull up to the LGS and buy ammo for less than what it would cost ordering online plus shipping. The local option isn't there around here, unless you want average or white box* stuff. I bought up the last ~4 bricks of SK Rifle match ($9/box) and SK Long Range Match ($10/box) several months ago. I asked the LGS if they were getting any more "good" .22lr ammo in, and they said, "maybe some day, it's not cost effective now, most people won't spend the money on it".
Shop around, make the best decisions on ammo purchases that you can.
*not Winchester, actual white box no manufacture's name...for certer fire anyway.