Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[E. Bryant]

So if GDP shrank before the Fed started raising rates, what are the odds of a so-called "soft landing" once we start seeing these 50-75 bps monthly hikes?

Larry Summers claimed a couple of weeks ago that the odds of a "hard landing" where something like "better than half, maybe two-thirds or more". That now seems a bit too optimistic.

All that said, the stock markets are up almost 1% as of this post, which means that we're still operating under the "bad news is bullish" rubric. This probably won't end well.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So if GDP shrank before the Fed started raising rates, what are the odds of a so-called "soft landing" once we start seeing these 50-75 bps monthly hikes?

Larry Summers claimed a couple of weeks ago that the odds of a "hard landing" where something like "better than half, maybe two-thirds or more". That now seems a bit too optimistic.

All that said, the stock markets are up almost 1% as of this post, which means that we're still operating under the "bad news is bullish" rubric. This probably won't end well.

The voice of experience has just spoken. Listen up... Pay off credit cards and snug seat belt.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

New York (CNN Business)America's economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of 2022, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday.
____________
Hmmmm... "Unexpectedly".... What can I say ?

The US economy shrank in the first quarter

America's economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of 2022, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Buzz word of the day:
bifurcated recession
Bad news for the poors.

Biden is just getting started! US economy now has negative GDP growth. – Investment Watch

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seems to be an echo in the room.

There's a big hole in the Fed's theory of inflation—incomes are falling at a record 10.9% rate

If inflation is all due to an overly generous federal government giving its people too much money, then our inflation problem is about to go away.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[babyguppy]

Buzz word of the day:
bifurcated recession
Bad news for the poors.

Biden is just getting started! US economy now has negative GDP growth. – Investment Watch

bifurcated recession -

We may have sort of a bifurcated recession going on within our economy where the top 1%, top, even 15% fare pretty well because they can continue to spend their way forward, where the majority of U.S. consumers really struggle just to make ends meet in terms of household items that they need.linky ​

You know, Rockefeller wasn't affected by the great depression and neither were most of the top 1%. They paid their bills, ate caviar, and continued to buy companies at amazing deals.
so, what's new? If a Billionaire loses 50% of their assets, they still have 500million to live on.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

bifurcated recession -

We may have sort of a bifurcated recession going on within our economy where the top 1%, top, even 15% fare pretty well because they can continue to spend their way forward, where the majority of U.S. consumers really struggle just to make ends meet in terms of household items that they need.linky ​

You know, Rockefeller wasn't affected by the great depression and neither were most of the top 1%. They paid their bills, ate caviar, and continued to buy companies at amazing deals.
so, what's new? If a Billionaire loses 50% of their assets, they still have 500million to live on.

Nothing new as long as the "Bread and Circuses" continue..... The issue is someone has to keep paying for Door Dash and streaming video....... Appearing that Uncle Sugar is funnelling those freshly printed USD's to Ukraine...... Life is good as long as you are spending other people's money.

 

[E. Bryant]

Seems to be an echo in the room.

There's a big hole in the Fed's theory of inflation—incomes are falling at a record 10.9% rate

If inflation is all due to an overly generous federal government giving its people too much money, then our inflation problem is about to go away.

www.marketwatch.com

The headline is this article is meaningfully misleading - it's disposable incomes (not real or gross) that dropped by 10.9%. That is exactly what is to be expected when inflation is ripping at about 10%.

Given that consumer activity is about 75% of GDP, it shouldn't take too long for this to tip us into a recession.

 

[babyguppy]

The headline is this article is meaningfully misleading - it's disposable incomes (not real or gross) that dropped by 10.9%. That is exactly what is to be expected when inflation is ripping at about 10%.

Given that consumer activity is about 75% of GDP, it shouldn't take too long for this to tip us into a recession.

and the FED goes

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The headline is this article is meaningfully misleading - it's disposable incomes (not real or gross) that dropped by 10.9%. That is exactly what is to be expected when inflation is ripping at about 10%.

Given that consumer activity is about 75% of GDP, it shouldn't take too long for this to tip us into a recession.

Kind of like some of Jerome Powell's shit.... A few years back he built a "Framework" for the FED Reserve to plug in numbers. Events of the past 18 months did not fit the frame work.... So, he got the deer in headlights look and sat on his ass when money tightening issues (both spending and printing) should have been on the front burner....... all he did was delay and prolong the pain.

And here we are.

 

[E. Bryant]

The Fed had an easy job in the post-2009 era when the threat was deflation; just keep the money printer going BRRRR, and we'll generate the illusion of 2% GDP growth while keeping inflation in roughly the same range. The stock market will melt upwards along with home prices, which generally makes people feel good. Cracks appears when they tried to unwind QE in 2018, but turning the printers back on fixed the problem.

Then March 2020 hits and the Fed attempted to fix problems that weren't addressable with monetary policy, and now we're in quite the pickle because unwinding this mess won't completely fix inflation (some of which is caused by supply dislocations from Covid lockdowns, and some of which is being driven by the unwinding of globalization), but it will tank over-inflated asset values and that generally makes people feel bad.

In short, the "easy" button turned into a "really damn hard" button basically overnight and now the Fed autopilot doesn't work. Bummer.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Fed had an easy job in the post-2009 era when the threat was deflation; just keep the money printer going BRRRR, and we'll generate the illusion of 2% GDP growth while keeping inflation in roughly the same range. The stock market will melt upwards along with home prices, which generally makes people feel good. Cracks appears when they tried to unwind QE in 2018, but turning the printers back on fixed the problem.

Then March 2020 hits and the Fed attempted to fix problems that weren't addressable with monetary policy, and now we're in quite the pickle because unwinding this mess won't completely fix inflation (some of which is caused by supply dislocations from Covid lockdowns, and some of which is being driven by the unwinding of globalization), but it will tank over-inflated asset values and that generally makes people feel bad.

In short, the "easy" button turned into a "really damn hard" button basically overnight and now the Fed autopilot doesn't work. Bummer.

Remember the argument of "The FED can't raise the interest rate because they could not service the interest on the debt"?????
Where did those people go?... They must be in the basement with the Brenton Woods folks.... We can not plot our course by looking over the stern. Insanity.

 

[babyguppy]

Remember the argument of "The FED can't raise the interest rate because they could not service the interest on the debt"?????
Where did those people go?... They must be in the basement with the Brenton Woods folks.... We can not plot our course by looking over the stern. Insanity.

The FED figured out, if the print 2x or 3x the dollars and raise rates by 1% they are good to go. FED will print the $$ so the bonds are worthless or become cheaper to buy back.
I owe you 1 dollar. I print 3 and pay you back.
Argentina here we come.

 

[devildog93]

Remember the argument of "The FED can't raise the interest rate because they could not service the interest on the debt"?????
Where did those people go?... They must be in the basement with the Brenton Woods folks.... We can not plot our course by looking over the stern. Insanity.

That certainly wasn't me. I just want to see the can kicking stop no matter how this ends up. I want to see accounts squared up so we can start setting things right.

 

[Gary/CO]

Beans, boolits, and band-aids

and bullion to preserve wealth for the recovery.

I'm with Hobo on this.

This is a fake boom brought about free gubment money and artificially low interest rates. I've seen more people refinance and take out HELOCs this year than ever before. Most of the businesses I work with are overleveraged like you wouldn't believe.

In 2022 short term lending rates will increase, mortgage rates will go up substantially. At the same time, less people will be moving and less new homes will sell. The real estate market will see the "correction" everyone's been talking about for years and the fools that overleveraged themselves will take a huge hit. Businesses that have taken on all sorts of debt to fund growth will take a bath, those same businesses that wrote off their entire basis in the assets they acquired will have liabilities in excess of the FMV of their assets, the biggest tax bills they've ever dealt with and decreased revenues with which to service that debt. They'll flop, just like they did in 2008 and they'll take the rest of us down with them. We were here a decade ago and failed to learn our lesson.

The smart ones amongst us will stay liquid and capitalize on the bargains that will result. They'll play the long game and create lasting wealth.

Then again, our economic situation is pretty much unprecedented. Who knows. We can't really look back on history to see how this will play out.

I'm nervous as all hell though.

Concur. We have returned to the 2007/8 moment but it's leveraged even higher this time. There won't be bailouts and instead there'll be bail-ins (like in Cyprus, Argentina and elsewhere).

The Alarm has been sounding for quite some time.

'Sound the alarm': National debt hits $30 trillion as economists warn of impact for Americans

Economists say U.S. is on unsustainable fiscal path that can push up interest rates and mean less money is available to care for the poor and elderly.

www.usatoday.com

Since TARP we've been on life support (QE or more commonly called brrrrrrrrrrrr!)

 

[Hobo Hilton]

That certainly wasn't me. I just want to see the can kicking stop no matter how this ends up. I want to see accounts squared up so we can start setting things right.

 

[NoDopes]

it's disposable incomes (not real or gross) that dropped by 10.9%. That is exactly what is to be expected when inflation is ripping at about 10%.

Actually, I think you jumped the gun on that hypothesis. If only 10% of my income is disposable, then 10% inflation would now be eating 90% of my disposable income. I guess the question is what is the average % of Americans income that is disposable.

 

[E. Bryant]

Remember the argument of "The FED can't raise the interest rate because they could not service the interest on the debt"?????
Where did those people go?... They must be in the basement with the Brenton Woods folks.... We can not plot our course by looking over the stern. Insanity.

The Fed isn't part of the federal government, and so it nominally does not care about debt service costs. Now the reality of the situation is that eventually it will be made to care, but there isn't an explicit mandate to hold interest on the debt to some nominal value.

To the extent that the Fed is controlled by politics (and it is because its board members are political nominees), it's going to be torn between controlling inflation, propping up asset values, maintaining an acceptable unemployment number, avoiding deflation (hence the 2% inflation target), and yeah, controlling interest. Which one of those factors will be the first to bring out the torches and pitchforks? I honestly don't know, because if people didn't get riled up by the fuckary in 2008 then they are obviously pretty damn tolerant. Maybe food shortages? But I don't see an easily-packaged narrative which ties that back to the Fed; the blame will land elsewhere.

 

[E. Bryant]

Actually, I think you jumped the gun on that hypothesis. If only 10% of my income is disposable, then 10% inflation would now be eating 90% of my disposable income. I guess the question is what is the average % of Americans income that is disposable.

I don't know the mean or median disposable income, and spending 30 seconds on Google didn't give me the answer. So I don't know if it's 10% or 50% or 90%, although it's probably closer to the lower end of that range (if you're taxed at 50% overall and then allocated 40% of your gross income to servicing debt, it's easy math to figure out the rest). But you're right, it does factor into understanding the net impact of inflation - the tighter one's budget, the more it hurts. I may indeed have oversimplified the relationship.

 

[lariat]

I don't know the mean or median disposable income, and spending 30 seconds on Google didn't give me the answer. So I don't know if it's 10% or 50% or 90%, although it's probably closer to the lower end of that range (if you're taxed at 50% overall and then allocated 40% of your gross income to servicing debt, it's easy math to figure out the rest). But you're right, it does factor into understanding the net impact of inflation - the tighter one's budget, the more it hurts. I may indeed have oversimplified the relationship.

Some of this inflation calculation will also depend upon where you live (costs in your area) as well as the basket of goods you purchase. I know you guys are talking about median and mean, but those two factors are turning out to be real issues that may be seriously skewing everything. Gas is higher in California, meat is higher in the rural parts of the country. I don't know how any of these numbers from the fed are meaningful. Its the individual experience that matters.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Some of this inflation calculation will also depend upon where you live (costs in your area) as well as the basket of goods you purchase. I know you guys are talking about median and mean, but those two factors are turning out to be real issues that may be seriously skewing everything. Gas is higher in California, meat is higher in the rural parts of the country. I don't know how any of these numbers from the fed are meaningful. Its the individual experience that matters.

I agree 100%... Where it is going to be painful is on credit card interest, increases in property tax, insurance on your car (zip code), etc. and those things indexed off of "national" stats... A family who moved to a low cost of living area so as to "work from home" may soon find out that all of the peripheral expenses are more now than where they were before.

 

[devildog93]

I agree 100%... Where it is going to be painful is on credit card interest, increases in property tax, insurance on your car (zip code), etc. and those things indexed off of "national" stats... A family who moved to a low cost of living area so as to "work from home" may soon find out that all of the peripheral expenses are more now than where they were before.

Sometimes no change occurs until the pressure is applied. They seem to be doing just that, but I don't think this great reset will end up like they think. If history has a recurring theme, it seems to me it would be that the masses/visigoths/rabble/etc. seem to get pretty pissy when you make getting food a luxury. I wonder if this isn't what the upper crust Romans acted like towards the end. It all seems so out of touch. Maybe I missed the point of the history lesson? Were there Romans who got out with most of their finances intact that watched it burn to the ground in their wake? It sure seems like a dangerous game to play and think you will never get called to the carpet by the unhappy minions who realize they can't get food or even survive at a low level.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sometimes no change occurs until the pressure is applied. They seem to be doing just that, but I don't think this great reset will end up like they think. If history has a recurring theme, it seems to me it would be that the masses/visigoths/rabble/etc. seem to get pretty pissy when you make getting food a luxury. I wonder if this isn't what the upper crust Romans acted like towards the end. It all seems so out of touch. Maybe I missed the point of the history lesson? Were there Romans who got out with most of their finances intact that watched it burn to the ground in their wake? It sure seems like a dangerous game to play and think you will never get called to the carpet by the unhappy minions who realize they can't get food or even survive at a low level.

You have not missed any points of that history lesson. What you are doing is looking reality square in the eye and preparing to deal with the unknown future. You and I are in that small minority of American's who are capable of dealing with reality. I call this time reaching the "Y" in the path. One path is reality and the other is denial (as in - Oh, that will never happen !).... I have been told, many times "Hobo, best if you just leave those people in their state of denial".... Being stubborn I wanted to prove I could bring them to reality. In looking back, I was given good advice, I should have left them in denial and continued on my path of reality..... Heartbreaking as it is, leave them in their warm and fuzzy place and continue to ready yourself for the unknown.
JMHO

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Reality explained:

Not the 1970s or the 1920s: We're in Uncharted Territory

All of these similarities and differences are setting up a sea-change revaluation of capital, resources and labor that will be on the same ...

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com

 

[babyguppy]

ahhh, the truth is bubbling out, about the BS announcement on Biden's increasing drilling leases. The real fine print and double speak is coming out
link

Biden’s decision either have not read the fine print or are in on the mischief, for Biden eliminated 80 percent of the land available for leasing and increased the cost of operating those leases by 50 percent.

From Article

The federal government, specifically the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which oversees 245 million acres of surface and 700 million acres of mineral estate, is required by an Act of Congress, the Mineral Leasing Act, to conduct quarterly sales of oil and gas leases on lands not otherwise off limits to that activity. President Biden ended those sales his first week in office, but on June 14, 2021, a federal district court in Louisiana ruled that “pause” illegal. The Biden administration both appealed and asserted it was taking steps to comply with the judge’s ruling but slow walked the latter. Thus, days ago, the West, home of most BLM lands, entered its sixth quarter without a lease sale.​

​

That was not all. Biden cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline, initiated adoption of draconian regulations making energy production more costly and warred against the ability of oil and gas operators to obtain financing. Energy prices began climbing. In response, Biden went hat-in-hand to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela asking that they, not we in the West, increase their production. Twice, Biden tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Nonetheless, energy prices kept rising and Americans blamed Biden.​

​

Thus, came Good Friday’s announcement, which reversed a Biden campaign promise to end oil and gas leasing on federal lands. Progressives outraged by Biden’s decision either have not read the fine print or are in on the mischief, for Biden eliminated 80 percent of the land available for leasing and increased the cost of operating those leases by 50 percent. Without saying so, Biden is achieving what radical environmentalists demand when they insist that we “leave” fossil fuels “in the ground.”​

 

[babyguppy]

AND>>>>>>>>>
another one burns, this one, not a total disaster though.. vegans are probably screaming about the soybeans.
CHESAPEAKE, Va. - A fire took place at Perdue Farms facility in the South Norfolk area of Chesapeake Saturday evening.
link
the damage from the fire will have minimum impact on their operations.
Soybean products must now be removed from the tank to verify the fire is completely extinguished.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I used to love riggin' with those big old Manitowoc cranes. I remember hundreds of them disassembled and put away in those lay down yards in Houston and all along the Gulf Coast. Deja Vu

Manitowoc stock falls more than 5% as crane maker sees 'economic slowdown'

Shares of Manitowoc Co. undefined fell more than 5% in the extended session Tuesday after the maker of cranes and other construction equipment reported mixed...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Market is "Pricing In" __________________ (Fill in the blank).... War, recession, inflation, stagnating economy, resignations, supply chain breaks, fuel surcharges, food shortages, ...... I hate hearing that phrase. They are only guessing at what's coming down the pipe.

Stock market starts to price ‘rising risk of stagflation,’ says Research Affiliates CEO. Here’s how investors may be positioning.

Equity markets are starting to price 'the rising risk of stagflation,' according to Research Affiliates chief executive officer Chris Brightman.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jamie Dimon validating what I have been saying.... Deja Vu

New York (CNN Business)JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should have moved sooner to raise interest rates and conceded the odds do not favor taming inflation without sparking a recession.

Jamie Dimon: The Cold War is back and a recession is a real possibility

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should have moved sooner to raise interest rates and conceded the odds do not favor taming inflation without sparking a recession.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The Markets rejoiced this afternoon (up about 3%) when Jerome Powell said that a .75% interest rate increase was not being considered.
What this means is the recession will drag out much longer if interest rates are increased in small increments. A reminder - The printing presses are running wide open. Recession will be Worldwide.

Stocks Roar as Powell Quells Fear of Jumbo Hikes: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks rallied the most since May 2020 and Treasury yields fell after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eased concern the central bank will embark on a more aggressive pace of tightening after delivering its steepest rate increase in two decades.Most Read from BloombergFed Hikes...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[UKDslayer]

BREAKING: Foreclosures Up 181% in One Year - Home Sales Down 12.6% vs. Last Year | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft

Another Joe Biden record!

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

Gas is still $3.94 for 87 octane. It won’t be much longer before the dominoes really start to fall.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Gas is still $3.94 for 87 octane. It won’t be much longer before the dominoes really start to fall.

Many of the domino's are being propped up by both Big Government and Big Business.... Both need tome to fabricate propaganda about the recession, economy, supply chain, food shortages, oil prices and a war in Ukraine.....
Big Business will funnel as much loose cash into "share buy back's" as possible. No help for the citizenry.
Big Government is focused on getting re-elected.....
The guy on Main Street needs to look at his last credit card statement and get a grip on increases in the interest rates.
The fixed income "Olds" will do the same as they did during the past 3 recessions. Stretch their $$$'s, buy only what you have cash to pay for and implement more safety into your daily routines. Being active and exercising is great but weigh the "risk versus rewards"....
Time wise, this could very well be the most lengthy recession America has ever seen.
Plan for the long haul.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The new Recession buzz word - "Unretirement"...... I remember that phenomenon from the past 3 recessions. Too broke to be retired.

'Unretirement' is becoming a hot new trend in the sizzling U.S. labor market

The level of workers who retired then came back a year later is running around 3.2%, just about where it was before the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

Yup. I'm already there....pulled the plug in January and instead of my Retirement Income Fund making me $3K a month we have lost over $30K this year. So if it doesn't clear/recover by end of June (and it simply cannot/will not) I'll be going back to work. Or jumping off a bridge. Just my luck....49 years pounding my head against the Wall sucking millionaire dick for food and now I get to work until I get crippled or go insane.

I'm done. Crisp and smoking.

VooDoo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The financial reporters are attempting to bury some dismal news in most of the articles this morning:

There also was some better news on the inflation front: Average hourly earnings continued to grow, but at a 0.3% level for the month that was a bit below the 0.4% estimate. On a year-over-year basis, earnings were up 5.5%, about the same as in March but still below the pace of inflation.

Payroll growth accelerated by 428,000 in April, more than expected as jobs picture stays strong

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 428,000 for the month, a bit above the Dow Jones estimate of 400,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6%.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wrapping up on a Friday.

Oil is at $110.58
Gold is at $1883.40
Wheat is at $406.00
Oats at $7.03

Many of the big players lost money this week. Monday morning they will be wanting to get it back. Beware.

 

[Gwak2006]

That wheat price is crazy.

 

[babyguppy]

I'm still trying to figure why gold isn't holding its value in this high inflation times. Usually, gold would hold it's value. With inflation going over 10% gold is dropping. Any ideas?

 

[Gwak2006]

I'm still trying to figure why gold isn't holding its value in this high inflation times. Usually, gold would hold it's value. With inflation going over 10% gold is dropping. Any ideas?

There are ways to suppress metals in the futures markets. Silver has been suppressed for years. Look at the premium on physical silver, especially Eagles.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I'm still trying to figure why gold isn't holding its value in this high inflation times. Usually, gold would hold it's value. With inflation going over 10% gold is dropping. Any ideas?

You have to understand the difference in "Paper Gold" and "Physical Gold"... "Paper Gold" is traded on the Market and is supposed to be backed up by "Physical Gold" held in a secure lock up. Rumor has it that a lot of "Paper Gold" is being traded that has no "Physical Gold" backing it up. Thus, "Paper Gold" will trend with the Market. That is a very, very brief explanation.

What Is Paper Gold? Physical Gold vs. Paper Gold

If you're looking to invest in gold you might always think about gold bars, but there are other ones. One of them is paper gold. Learn why its worth investing!

learnaboutgold.com

 

[kthomas]

From one of the very few people that accurately predicted the subprime mortgage market crash:

 

[Vodoun daVinci]

So, in the opinion of you guys who seem to understand this Economics Disaster, (It's all Greek to me - makes my head spin) how long will this downward spiral continue? The Great Recession back in 2008 I was back in the saddle financially and investment had recovered in about 18 months. Any opinions about when this nut will crack and we can begin a countdown to recovery?

VooDoo

 

[Bigfatcock]

So, in the opinion of you guys who seem to understand this Economics Disaster, (It's all Greek to me - makes my head spin) how long will this downward spiral continue? The Great Recession back in 2008 I was back in the saddle financially and investment had recovered in about 18 months. Any opinions about when this nut will crack and we can begin a countdown to recovery?

VooDoo

Don’t know, shits weird right now.

 

[babyguppy]

So, in the opinion of you guys who seem to understand this Economics Disaster, (It's all Greek to me - makes my head spin) how long will this downward spiral continue? The Great Recession back in 2008 I was back in the saddle financially and investment had recovered in about 18 months. Any opinions about when this nut will crack and we can begin a countdown to recovery?

VooDoo

who takes back the congress and the presidency? .. that'll give you an idea
remember, all these policies that Biden is pushing are O's policies.
O stated that gas would 'naturally' rise to 5 dollars a gallon, utilities will increase, etc..

 

[E. Bryant]

who takes back the congress and the presidency? .. that'll give you an idea
remember, all these policies that Biden is pushing are O's policies.
O stated that gas would 'naturally' rise to 5 dollars a gallon, utilities will increase, etc..

Government fiscal policy matters less than Fed monetary policy at this point. Besides, even if the Republican take back both Congress and the WH, we're looking at yearly trillion-dollar deficits for the foreseeable future.

 

[RUTGERS95]

So if GDP shrank before the Fed started raising rates, what are the odds of a so-called "soft landing" once we start seeing these 50-75 bps monthly hikes?

Larry Summers claimed a couple of weeks ago that the odds of a "hard landing" where something like "better than half, maybe two-thirds or more". That now seems a bit too optimistic.

All that said, the stock markets are up almost 1% as of this post, which means that we're still operating under the "bad news is bullish" rubric. This probably won't end well.

Fed rates mean little. The balance sheet is the issue

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So, in the opinion of you guys who seem to understand this Economics Disaster, (It's all Greek to me - makes my head spin) how long will this downward spiral continue? The Great Recession back in 2008 I was back in the saddle financially and investment had recovered in about 18 months. Any opinions about when this nut will crack and we can begin a countdown to recovery?

VooDoo

Not to evade giving you a definite answer.......

We are a long way from "bottoming out"... If you plot any of the past 3 - 4 recessions on a graph, once the bottom is established the climb back to normal always takes longer than the "fall from grace"....
If this recession bottomed out today, the climb back to normal would take 2 years.
Looking ahead exponentially.... Some forecast this recession to continue until mid to late 2023. If that is accurate, the climb out will take 4 years.

Factoring in the "psychology"... The very worst thing that can happen is to have one or two generations that accept these times as the norm. They will have no incentive to push ahead for a better lifestyle.

The real winners during this time is those who can simply maintain the lifestyle they have always enjoyed.

JMHO

Hobo

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Fed rates mean little. The balance sheet is the issue

JMHO

A hard landing will be much better for our country than allowing the past 2 years becoming the norm.

 

[Gwak2006]

Not to evade giving you a definite answer.......

We are a long way from "bottoming out"... If you plot any of the past 3 - 4 recessions on a graph, once the bottom is established the climb back to normal always takes longer than the "fall from grace"....
If this recession bottomed out today, the climb back to normal would take 2 years.
Looking ahead exponentially.... Some forecast this recession to continue until mid to late 2023. If that is accurate, the climb out will take 4 years.

Factoring in the "psychology"... The very worst thing that can happen is to have one or two generations that accept these times as the norm. They will have no incentive to push ahead for a better lifestyle.

The real winners during this time is those who can simply maintain the lifestyle they have always enjoyed.

JMHO

Hobo

The market takes the elevator down and the stairs up.